More time at home means many Australians now have the opportunity to re-assess their lifestyle and spending habits and set some serious saving goals. So how can you actually go about it?
" ["fulltext"]=> string(1236) "In this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Grace Ormsby is joined by Melbourne-based Reventon’s Billie Christofi to talk all things finance and the impact of isolation on our hip pockets.
In stage 4 lockdown, Billie shares the importance of going back to basics when it comes to budgeting, methods to re-assess spending habits, and some of the less conventional ways people can boost their wealth at this time.
Thanks Billie, for sharing your insights with the nestegg podcast team!
Have an investment story to share? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured on an upcoming episode!
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News of a COVID-19 vaccine is a wake-up call for markets, with consumers tipped to return to their previous habits, an industry expert has stated.
Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(5137) "Analysts at SG Hiscock & Company suggest the Australian market has shifted from a ‘hope’ to a ‘growth’ phase with a positive outlook for 2021.
Hamish Tadgell, Australian equities portfolio manager, said the huge coordinated policy response from central banks and governments around the world is supporting a more sustainable growth recovery for equity markets.
“Following the fastest despair phase in history, we have experienced one of the strongest hope-based recovery phases we’ve ever seen,” he said.
“On average, it has taken around three years for the market to return to its previous peak earnings level following a downturn. However, the event-driven nature of this crisis, coupled with the paradigm change in fiscal policy support and rise in household savings, makes it very different to the post-GFC recovery. This provides the potential for a much faster return to pre-crisis earning.
Mr Tadgell explained how he is tilting his investment thesis towards companies that will capture the shift from hope to growth and in particular seeking to relocate more towards quality cyclical companies that will benefit from the return to normal.
“This includes energy companies such as Woodside Petroleum and Cooper Energy, and we’ve also increased our weighting towards banks, which are now at our highest level in over 10 years,” he said.
“Nonetheless, there remains uncertainty around how long we will have to live with the virus and the timing of a vaccine, and there is a need to remain vigilant.
“There will no doubt be bumps in the road with the manufacturing and distribution of the vaccine and path of earnings recovery. At this time, more than ever, a disciplined and active investment approach is required,” Mr Tadgell told investors.
But the COVID crisis has its differences from other recessions in history – one being that household income increased through the period, due to JobKeeper and other fiscal support measures.
SG Hiscock AREIT portfolio manager Grant Berry pointed out how Australians have their highest savings rate since the 1970s.
“It raises a few questions. Is the savings rate this elevated because people are fearful and they’re not spending and they’re saving because they’re bunkering down? Is the savings rate because people are essentially locked down in their homes and therefore their ability to spend… is impaired?” he said during an SG Hiscock media briefing.
“Or is the savings rate essentially this high because people just don’t have the need to spend?”
Importantly, consumer confidence is the highest it has been in seven years, the manager commented.
“People are not saving because they’re fearful, not at all. People are saving because they’re not out and about as much, and they’re not needing to spend as much, so they’ve built up this chest of savings,” he said.
The Australian retail sector is expected to benefit from consumers’ improved balance sheets as Christmas approaches, with sentiment rising on the news of a vaccine and Australia enjoying lower case numbers and eased restrictions.
Instead of remaining cautious around going out in public, Mr Berry believes consumers “want to get out”, having been deprived of experiences, with pent-up demand. He referred to a rise in retail foot traffic through the Black Friday sales period.
“The market has been extrapolating the stay-at-home scenario… We’re at the other side of that see-saw. Australia’s position has significantly improved post-lockdown, and now we’ve had the vaccine arrive as well,” he said.
Mr Berry described this change in consumer preference as a wake-up call for the market.
“In Australia, we’ve already gone beyond ‘COVID-normal’, and the market transition triggered by news of an effective vaccine is only just getting started.
“There has been some debate about whether the shift towards working and shopping from home will be permanent, and how this will affect companies – in particular, listed real estate trusts in the office and retail sectors,” Mr Berry said.
“However, looking back to the years immediately following the Spanish flu pandemic, there was huge pent-up demand which resulted in the consumerism and exuberance of the Roaring Twenties,” he concluded.
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tariffs imposed by the Chinese government on the Australian wine industry could create a buying opportunity for investors, albeit it will be a bumpy transition, an industry expert has advised.
Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(4687) "The Australian wine industry has been devastated by the news that China has imposed tariffs, making it almost impossible to access the $1.2 billion market.
Over the weekend, China imposed a crippling import tax that would see Australian wine in the region face tariffs of between 107 and 200 per cent on all Australian wine.
Australia’s largest wine company, Treasury Wine Estate, will face tariffs of 169.3 per cent.
In a statement to the ASX, Treasury Wine Estate confirmed it had rewritten its strategy following the five-year old free trade agreement between Australia and China, but confirmed it will take time to execute.
“We are moving on with a plan ... to build the markets outside of China, and that’s what we’ll continue to do,” said Treasury CEO Tim Ford, who started in the role in July. “A strategy of hope’s not a very good strategy.”
Treasury shares fell as much as 12 per cent in early trade on Monday, against a slightly weaker broader market. The stock is down a third since China announced the anti-dumping investigation in August.
According to UBS, the subsequent fall in Treasury Wine Estate share price means the stock now has “value on offer’’.
While moving the shares from a buy to neutral, UBS highlights how investors have priced in the China-Australia trade tensions into the share price.
“While the tariff announcement removes a key overhang, we believe risk/reward is now balanced, given uncertainty around re-allocation, potential margin impacts (as supply increases), and few near-term catalysts,” UBS analyst Aryan Norozi noted in a report.
“Key upside risks are improving progress of China-Australia trade; and/or increased confidence on wine re-allocation. Key downside risks are balance sheet pressures – while management seemed confident, a larger than expected working capital drag could drive stress.”
According to UBS, the company has four options following with the re-allocation of wine to other regions being the most likely, although they could re-allocate graph source, change China supply chains or sell through grey markets.
The company itself stated to the ASX that it would try to re-allocate its product in the short term.
Treasury Wine Estate told the ASX it had plans to immediately seek to re-allocate products destined for China and will then “progressively reach their full potential over the next two to three years”.
The company will move its flagship Penfolds Bin and Icon range from China – which currently accounts for 25 per cent of sales – to other luxury markets across Asia, Europe and the US.
“The strength of our brands, including Penfold, combined without a diversified business model will allow TWE to implement a range of changes and plans that will enable us to manage through the significant impact of these measures going forward,” Mr Ford said.
The company will also accelerate sales and marketing activities in those jurisdictions to drive demand.
Treasury Wine Estate is also looking to streamline its operations by reducing supply and overhead costs across its global operations.
Treasury expects the benefits of the plans to be minimal in the current financial year, but to provide a more stable and diversified model going forward should the reductions continue into the longer term.
“We will continue to work with our valued partners to further understand the implications and how we can work with the industry, government and others to support the sector.”
“At the same time, we will continue to work with our customers and partners in China to demonstrate our long-term commitment to the growing number of Chinese consumers who enjoy our brands,” Mr Ford concluded.
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whether Google will use health data obtained by Fitbit to target ads to consumers, after the tech giant announced a purchase of the wearable devices company.
Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(4360) "Google has announced a nearly $3 billion ($2.1 billion US) plan to purchase Fitbit a year ago, but the sale has yet to be approved by Australian or European regulators.
Australia’s competition watchdog has raised concerns about enforcing the strict guidelines it set out upon the sale.
Under the guidelines, the ACCC would require Google to not use certain user data collected through Fitbit or its own wearable devices for Google’s advertising for at least 10 years.
They are also expecting Google to maintain access for third parties, such as health and fitness apps, to certain user data collected through Fitbit and Google wearable devices for 10 years, and maintain levels of interoperability between third-party wearables and Android smartphones for 10 years.
“Our decision to begin consultation should not be interpreted as a signal that the ACCC will ultimately accept the undertaking and approve the transaction,” ACCC chair Rod Sims said.
“Feedback from interested parties will assist us to decide whether the behavioural remedy proposed is capable of addressing our competition concerns regarding this transaction.”
However, a group of leading economists from Monash University found this proposal concerning enough to speak out against it.
Professor Chongwoo Choe, director of the Centre for Global Business (CGB), and associate professor Zhijun Chen, a coordinator for CGB’s Digital Economy Research Network, joined with a number of the world’s top competition economists to prepare an amicus brief to the European Competition Authority in the hope they could raise the alarm on behalf of unsuspecting global consumers.
“Sensitive health data held by Fitbit can be added to users’ personal profile Google aggregates from its other services, such as emails, maps and online searches,” Professor Choe said.
“While Google says it would not use Fitbit data for advertising purposes, this doesn’t rule out Google’s use of this data in other markets, such as healthcare.”
Associate Professor Chen said Google’s bid for Fitbit is consistent with its strategy to expand into healthcare, life sciences and insurance.
“By connecting Fitbit data with user data from Google’s Cloud Healthcare API, Google can build a more comprehensive patient profile and offer more personalised health care,” he said.
Associate Professor Chen says Google’s ambition is to protect its unique data empire, integrate functionalities and monetise information through its expanding digital arms.
This is evidenced through the Google Workspace (formerly G Suite) with a number of its popular free services – Gmail, Calendar, Maps, Chrome and News. Revenue from these platforms wasn’t directly sourced from the sale of advertisements, but through the collection of consumer demographic, interest and location data to better target advertisement placement.
“The Fitbit merger provides the chance for the European Commission and the ACCC to remain a frontrunner in the enforcement and guidance of merger policy in the digital era,” Associate Professor Chen said.
Professor Choe says Google’s proposed acquisition of Fitbit is not just about a gadget being brought into Google’s ecosystem, but one that involves highly sensitive data that is likely to harm consumers in health insurance, medical services and even labour markets.
“All too often, academics and policymakers look back and lament a failure to intervene more decisively and bemoan their hopeful reliance on remedies that just don’t work,” Professor Choe said.
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Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(3508) "Australia’s first recession in almost three decades and the subsequent market falls will see active, opportunistic investors find underrated companies, SGH ICE’s director and portfolio manager, Callum Burns, stated.
Figures from the June quarter have revealed a 7 per cent reduction in gross domestic product in June, following a 0.3 per cent decline in March.
The figure is on the top end of contraction for predicted figures, being the largest fall on record.
For the year, GDP contracted by 6.3 per cent.
However, the RBA believes Australia will be back out of recession once the September figures are released. The RBA pointed out that Victoria’s lockdowns were not the economic drag previously predicted.
Speaking ahead of next week’s central bank board meeting and its quarterly statement on monetary policy, RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle confirmed that Victoria’s impact on the economy has not hurt overall economic growth.
“At the moment, it looks like the September quarter for the country probably recorded positive growth rather than slightly negative,” Dr Debelle told a Senate estate hearing.
“Because the market downturn was triggered by a specific event – a health crisis – rather than it being part of the typical bull and bear market cycle, this has brought some anomalies to what we would otherwise expect,” he said.
According to Mr Burns, this is creating an environment where investors can get ahead if they look for companies with more certain earnings growth, at a sensible price, that display a sustainable competitive advantage, which could help grow their portfolio.
“History shows that companies that have a competitive advantage tend to perform better in uncertain environments; however, investors often underestimate the power of this advantage.”
“There continues to be a significant difference in performance between those companies with a structural advantage and mediocre companies. As a result, it remains a stock pickers’ market,” he explained.
Mr Burns said some of the industries poised for growth opportunities include pharmaceuticals, cloud software, online retail and food.
A focus on companies with organic growth opportunities that exhibit appropriate debt levels and strong cash flow has also proved rewarding for the Melbourne-based asset manager.
“The economic backdrop is driving product innovation and reinforcing the need for strong company management. The volatility and uncertainty clouding the large end of the market is further emphasising renewed interest in small caps,” Mr Burns concluded.
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US election are two key events that are likely to spur on infrastructure spending, which could be a catalyst for the asset class, an expert has revealed.
Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(3958) "During a Bennelong presentation, 4D global portfolio manager and chief investment officer Sarah Shaw explained how infrastructure assets have shown their defensive characteristics despite share price falls.
“COVID-19, as we all know, pushed a generally robust global economy into recession and saw the global equity market collapse,” Ms Shaw said.
“As an equity, listed infrastructure was not immune to the COVID-19 market sell-off.”
“Unfortunately as yet, infrastructure has not participated in the market bounce, and we believe this has created a very attractive buying opportunity in the global listed infrastructure market.”
Ms Shaw points to earnings of the asset class, which have been far more resilient than the sell-off implies.
“The asset class has proven its defensive characteristics, presenting strong earning momentum, underpinned by strong balance sheets, and we believe it’s only a matter of time before the market recognises this,” she said.
With the pandemic likely to linger through until 2021, Ms Shaw said a subsequent economic recovery will take longer as it is dependent on the health outcomes.
However, she noted that much of the fiscal support is targeted at infrastructure spending.
“The huge fiscal and monetary stimulus is still to be fully felt in economic terms, and a big chunk of that spending is focused on badly needed infrastructure spending, including the energy transition,” she said.
“So, once we move past the worst impacts of the virus and we see the economy return to a more stabilised environment, infrastructure in all its forms will be essential to the global economic recovery and returning society to a new normal.”
Ms Shaw pointed to studies which show that for every $1 of infrastructure investment, an economy gets a boost of anywhere between $3 to $5.
“In fact, at 4D we believe there is no global economic growth recovery without roads and rail, ports, airports, pipelines, power transmission networks and communication infrastructure,” she said.
Ms Shaw said the second big event, the US election, is also likely to spur on infrastructure growth.
“The presidency of Donald Trump has been one of the most polarising in recent American history, and it led to an election that was of far greater significance than normal,” Ms Shaw said.
“What we have seen in a rare convergence of views is that there is an agreement between Republicans and Democrats that the US is in dire need of spending to upgrade ageing infrastructure, as well as investing in new infrastructure to support the future generations.”
“This is a clear positive for the sector as we believe the public sector spend will lead to greater private sector involvement irrespective of who finally claims the presidency.”
While disagreeing on the size, scope and target of fiscal spending, both Democrats and Republicans agree upon a need of fiscal support for the economy.
“However, with this further stimulus in the pipeline, we do believe there is further support for a solid global recovery in 2021,” Ms Shaw concluded.
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least 11 years, as the major banks are forced to cut dividend spending, new research has shown.
Write comment (1 Comment) " ["fulltext"]=> string(4863) "Results collated by Janus Henderson showed that Australian dividends fell by 40.3 per cent on an underlying basis, down to $13.4 billion.
CBA, NAB and ANZ had accounted for three-fifths of the $8.8 billion fall in dividends during the quarter.
APRA had issued guidance for the banks to only pay up to half their earnings out in dividends, warning them to hold on to capital through the COVID crisis.
This is leaving investors that rely on dividend payments in a precarious position.
“The heavy reliance on banking dividends in Australia has long been a source of major risk,” the report stated.
“Last year, banks accounted for half the dividends in the Australian part of the index.”
The major four banks were not the only casualties, with Insurance Australia Group cancelling its dividend for the first time on record in order to bolster its capital reserves, as well as Sydney Airport and Aristocrat Leisure.
Only two companies in the Janus Henderson index raised dividends year-on-year, being food retailer Coles and gold miner Newcrest, who are both beneficiaries in the current crisis, the former due to the increased grocery demand and the latter thanks to the soaring price of gold.
Matt Gaden, head of Australia at Janus Henderson, expects more pain for dividend investors in the first quarter of 2021 before dividend payments rebound.
“The big question mark is over the decisions the regulators in the UK, Europe and Australia will make around banking payouts,” Mr Gaden said.
“And of course, so much depends on the pandemic and the severity and duration of any further lockdowns. As a rough guide, we estimate a worst case for dividends to be flat next year on an underlying basis, but we believe they could rebound by 12 per cent in our best-case scenario.”
Global dividend payouts
Australian investors are not alone in experiencing large dividend drop-offs, with Jane Shoemake investment director for global equity income at Janus Henderson revealing there had been a $312.5 billion loss in global dividend income in 2020.
Global dividends fell $76.7 billion (US$55 billion) to $460.1 billion (US$329.8 billion) in the third quarter, a fall of 11.4 per cent on an underlying basis and a headline decline of 14.3 per cent.
“The loss of $312.5 billion or US$224 billion in dividend income from around the world in 2020 is nothing to celebrate, but we have been encouraged by how resilient payouts have been in many parts of the world, especially in Asia, the US, Japan and emerging markets,” Ms Shoemake said.
“The resilience is partly because companies seek to cushion investors from the disruption to their operations, but it’s also because payout ratios (the portion of profits distributed) have been more comfortable in many parts of the world.”
The weakest results came from the UK, Australia and the Netherlands, but China, Hong Kong and Canada were among the very few major countries to see higher dividends.
China’s payouts for the three months were 3.3 per cent higher year-on-year, with three-quarters of its companies raising or holding steady.
Australia was among the weakest, alongside the UK (41.6 per cent lower), while the Netherlands was also hit by a cancellation in banking and brewing dividends.
The US saw a 3.9 per cent decline in the quarter, with eight in 10 companies holding or increasing their payouts.
Overall, more than two-thirds of companies had increased dividends or held them steady in the third quarter, compared with a little under one-third that cut or cancelled them.
Janus Henderson has estimated that dividends will fall by around 17.5 per cent to 20.2 per cent for the full year, to $1.67 trillion on an underlying basis, equivalent to a headline drop of 15.7 per cent to 18.5 per cent.
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["label"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> string(1) "0" ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> string(1) "1" ["group_state"]=> string(1) "1" ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(45) "/invest-money/shares/aussie-dividends-fall-40" ["image"]=> string(48) "images/article-826x550/decline-stock-line-ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(21) "Aussie dividends fall" } }Subscribe to our newletters
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