Banking

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A new report from Capgemini predicts that instant payments will account for 22% of all non-cash transactions globally by 2028, signaling a major shift in the payments industry.

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The World Payments Report 2025, released today by the Capgemini Research Institute, highlights the growing importance of account-to-account (A2A) and instant payment solutions in reshaping the global payments ecosystem.

According to the report, non-cash transaction volumes reached 1,411 billion in 2023 and are projected to hit 1,650 billion in 2024. This trend is expected to continue, with forecasts suggesting non-cash transactions will reach 2,838 billion by 2028.

The Asia-Pacific region is leading in non-cash transaction growth, with a 20% year-on-year increase in 2024, compared to 16% in Europe and 6% in North America.

Jeroen Hölscher, Global Head of Payment Services at Capgemini, said: "The continued surge in non-cash transactions is a watershed moment for banks and payment service providers. The data indicates an inevitable shift to a future of payments that is instant and open."

The report suggests that A2A instant payment solutions could impact card transaction growth by 15-25%, potentially challenging the dominance of traditional payment cards.

However, the study found that only 5% of banks are fully prepared to lead the instant payment acceleration. Concerns about fraud and potential liquidity issues are deterring progress, with only 25% of banks currently able to receive instant payments and 53% fully capable of sending and receiving them.

The report also highlights the potential of open finance to empower consumers and businesses, though progress is currently limited due to differences in regulatory frameworks and market initiatives.

Capgemini's World Payments Report 2025 draws insights from surveys and interviews with over 200 senior payment executives from leading banks, financial service organizations, and industry associations across 15 markets.

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• Yes

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A new report from Capgemini predicts that instant payments will account for 22% of all non-cash transactions globally by 2028, signaling a major shift in the payments industry.

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All eyes are on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, as investors anxiously await clues about the central bank's future rate decisions.

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US stock markets retreated yesterday, with investors trimming long positions ahead of Powell's address. The S&P 500 fell 0.90%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.70%.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank, noted that Powell is expected to temper expectations for aggressive rate cuts.

"There is no reason for the Fed to start cutting the interest rates by big chunks in the absence of a severe economic slowdown, market stress, or a crisis," Ozkardeskaya said.

Recent comments from other Fed officials have also pointed towards a more cautious approach to rate cuts. Kansas Fed President Schmid expressed a desire to see more data before supporting rate cuts, while Boston Fed's Susan Collins advocated for "gradual and methodical" reductions.

Currently, swap markets are pricing in around 95 basis points of cuts from the Fed between September and year-end. However, Ozkardeskaya suggests this may be overly optimistic.

"From where we stand right now, it seems more likely that this will not happen than the opposite," she said.

The analyst warned that if the Fed pauses rate cuts after an initial reduction, it could result in only a 50 basis point cut for the year, potentially weighing on risk appetite and boosting the US dollar.

Yesterday's economic data presented a mixed picture. While jobless claims met expectations and continuing claims rose less than anticipated, US manufacturing activity slowed more than expected.

In Europe, French services received a temporary boost from Olympics preparations, but German manufacturing figures remained weak, confirming ongoing challenges for the Eurozone's largest economy.

The British pound showed resilience despite some retreat, supported by stronger-than-expected PMI numbers indicating the UK economy's relatively robust performance.

As markets brace for Powell's speech, Ozkardeskaya expects the Fed chair to temper overpriced cut expectations, potentially leading to a rebound in the US dollar from oversold levels.

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All eyes are on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, as investors anxiously await clues about the central bank's future rate decisions.

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Bendigo Bank's Chief Economist David Robertson is maintaining his prediction that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2024, with cuts likely to begin in 2025.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(1667) "

Key points:

• Robertson acknowledges the disappointing May inflation data but cautions against overreacting to a single monthly figure
• He expects the first RBA rate cut to occur in May 2025, pushed back from his previous forecast of February 2025
• Robertson sees a 50% market probability of another rate hike as "a long bow to draw on a single monthly CPI read"
• He notes the importance of upcoming quarterly inflation data and labour force reports in shaping RBA policy

Robertson highlighted several factors influencing the economic outlook:

• Stage 3 tax cuts and cost-of-living measures totalling about $52 billion this financial year
• Uncertainty around how much of this money will be spent versus saved
• Contradictory economic indicators, including record highs in property prices, stock markets, and employment levels, alongside a per-capita recession and low consumer sentiment

The economist expects moderating inflation in the new financial year, aided by base effects and a stronger Australian dollar. He anticipates more moderate gains in house prices but warns that economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks may slow the recovery.

Robertson emphasised the RBA's dual mandate of price stability and full employment, suggesting that upcoming jobs data will be almost as influential as inflation figures in determining monetary policy.

Despite pushing back his forecast for the first rate cut, Robertson maintains his view that the RBA will keep rates on hold for the remainder of 2024, with relief via rate cuts coming in 2025.

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From financing a credit card debt to deciding on a home loan, Nest Egg’s got your back! " ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2024-07-05 05:54:24" ["slug"]=> string(73) "18622:bendigo-bank-economist-forecasts-stable-rates-for-2024-cuts-in-2025" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8989 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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Bendigo Bank's Chief Economist David Robertson is maintaining his prediction that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2024, with cuts likely to begin in 2025.

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Recent economic data and central bank communications have dampened the market's appetite for risk assets, leading to a stronger US dollar and a pullback in commodities and equities, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.

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The week began with the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which revealed that many Fed members questioned whether keeping rates "high for longer" would be sufficiently restrictive to tame inflation, suggesting that further rate hikes might be necessary.

In the UK, Prime Minister Sunak announced a general election for early July, earlier than expected, diminishing hopes for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in June. Additionally, hotter-than-expected British CPI data further reduced the likelihood of policy easing in the near term.

In the euro area, data showed that wage growth increased 4.7% in Q1, raising concerns among officials who had been relying on a slowdown to keep inflation under control.

Finally, stronger-than-expected US economic data, including accelerating services and manufacturing PMIs and soft jobless claims, dealt a final blow to market bulls.

"If the reflation trade loses momentum due to a hawkish shift in major central bank expectations, we shall see a period of pullback and profit taking in risk assets, and a further dollar appreciation against major counterparts," Ozkardeskaya said.

US crude oil prices extended losses below the 100-day moving average, while copper futures and gold prices also declined significantly. The US dollar index strengthened past the 50-day moving average, and major currency pairs such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD faced downward pressure.

Amid the market turmoil, Nvidia remained a bright spot, jumping more than 9% after beating revenue expectations and providing a strong forecast. Ozkardeskaya believes that the company's positive outlook and the growing demand for AI suggest that the $1000 per share level could become a new support for investors looking to capitalize on the stock's bullish momentum.

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From financing a credit card debt to deciding on a home loan, Nest Egg’s got your back! " ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2024-05-29 22:01:12" ["slug"]=> string(79) "18595:hawkish-central-bank-expectations-dampen-market-sentiment-boosting-dollar" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9000 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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Recent economic data and central bank communications have dampened the market's appetite for risk assets, leading to a stronger US dollar and a pullback in commodities and equities, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.

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European and UK stocks are outperforming their US counterparts due to a combination of factors, including high valuations in the US, strong corporate earnings from European companies, and expectations of looser monetary policies in Europe and the UK, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.

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The Stoxx 600 and the FTSE 100 reached new record highs yesterday, while the S&P 500 stalled. The AI rally, which has been driving major US indices, appears to be losing momentum, with companies like Nvidia and AMD experiencing declines from their March peaks.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains committed to its inflation target, with recent comments from Fed speakers Susan Collins and Lisa Cook suggesting that reaching the 2% goal may take longer than previously anticipated. Cook also noted that firms have ample earnings to cover debt payments and that financial firms are well-positioned to absorb shocks.

In contrast, central banks in Europe are taking a different approach. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its policy rate in Q1 due to a sufficient slowdown in inflation, and the Riksbank opted for a 25bp cut yesterday, signaling the possibility of two more rate cuts this year. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates in June, and the Bank of England (BoE) may provide more details on its plans to lower rates at today's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

European policymakers are determined to ease their monetary policies regardless of the Fed's actions, despite the risk of currency depreciation and increased domestic price pressures. As long as the dollar's appreciation remains manageable, the European currencies may continue to depreciate against the US dollar.

The BoE is not expected to cut its policy rate today, but the MPC is anticipated to have less agreement on the timing of future rate cuts. Four out of nine MPC members are considered hawkish, while Governor Bailey has shifted his stance from "it's too early to talk about cuts" to "the inflation dynamics between the US and UK are diverging." Some analysts see a small chance of a BoE rate cut in June, alongside the ECB, but a more realistic scenario is an August cut.

The British Pound (GBP) is currently trading in a bearish consolidation zone, and unless unexpectedly hawkish statements are made, it is likely to continue attracting sellers near the 1.25 level leading up to next week's US inflation report.

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European and UK stocks are outperforming their US counterparts due to a combination of factors, including high valuations in the US, strong corporate earnings from European companies, and expectations of looser monetary policies in Europe and the UK, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.

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The Bank of England, European Central Bank (ECB), and US Federal Reserve are set to take different paths in their monetary policies, which will significantly impact investors around the world, according to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.

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The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at 5.25% in its upcoming decision on Thursday, while the ECB is widely anticipated to cut rates next month. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve has pushed back expectations for rate cuts to September at the earliest due to persistent inflation.

"Clearly, this divergence of three major central banks impacts investors around the world, and many will be preparing to adjust their portfolio mix accordingly to seize the opportunities when they're presented," Mr Green said.

The divergence in central bank policies is likely to have a significant impact on currencies. If the Bank of England maintains its interest rates, the British Pound (GBP) could see stability and appreciation against other major currencies, while the anticipated rate cut by the ECB is expected to weaken the Euro (EUR) against its counterparts.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is strengthening against its peers due to the Fed's firm stance on delaying rate cuts until at least September.

Central bank divergence also presents opportunities in equity markets across the UK, EU, and US, with sectors such as tech, healthcare, and consumer discretionary potentially thriving in an environment of stable interest rates and improving economic conditions in the UK.

In the Eurozone, the anticipated rate cut by the ECB could stimulate equity markets, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rate changes, while in the United States, sectors resilient to inflationary pressures, such as tech, financials, and healthcare, may outperform.

Bond markets in all three regions are also likely to be influenced by central bank divergence, with the ECB's anticipated rate cut potentially driving bond prices higher across the Eurozone, while the Fed's firm stance on delaying rate cuts may lead to higher yields on US Treasuries.

Mr Green urged investors to adopt a nuanced approach to asset allocation and risk management in response to central bank divergence.

"With three major banks likely diverging on monetary policy, those who are serious about safeguarding and growing their wealth should be paying close attention," he concluded.

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The Bank of England, European Central Bank (ECB), and US Federal Reserve are set to take different paths in their monetary policies, which will significantly impact investors around the world, according to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.

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