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The realm of finance and investment may be on the brink of an AI revolution, following a groundbreaking study conducted by researchers from the University of Florida.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(3112) "Alejandro Lopez-Lira and Yuehua Tang have published a paper indicating that ChatGPT, the advanced large language model, has the capability to accurately forecast stock price movements, potentially exceeding traditional sentiment analysis techniques.
In their paper, titled "Can ChatGPT forecast stock price movements? Return predictability and large language models," the researchers showcased how ChatGPT's performance could enhance quantitative trading strategies. "Our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions," they explained.
The study, focusing on a sample period between October 2021 and December 2022, involved sentiment analysis of news headlines related to U.S. common stocks. Data was sourced from the CRSP database, with a comprehensive set of headlines pulled from major media and newswires. ChatGPT was employed to determine the sentiment of each headline—a process the researchers describe as converting ChatGPT's assessments into "numerical scores" to "predict stock returns on the next trading day."
The pair's research recorded a "significantly positive correlation" between the scores generated by ChatGPT and subsequent daily stock returns. They believe these findings hold substantial weight in terms of potential shifts in the financial industry's employment landscape and market prediction methodologies.
Besides employment impacts, Lopez-Lira and Tang consider the broader implications for asset managers and policy regulators. "This insight can help these professionals make more informed decisions about incorporating LLMs [large language models] into their investment strategies," they stated, underscoring the potential for improved strategy performance.
Moreover, the study is affirming the critical role of AI in the evolution of finance. "Our study demonstrates the value of ChatGPT in predicting stock market returns," they emphasized. As the finance sector increasingly embraces AI, the insights from this research could influence the development of more effective and responsible financial decision-making models.
The significance of such AI-driven tools in finance was also highlighted by Alvin Chia and Krishan Dave of Northern Trust in a joint piece earlier this year. While they believe generative AI's role will initially be limited to supporting research, they are optimistic about its long-term influence on investment management, envisioning AI-powered dashboards and real-time analytics that can reveal pivotal trends and unforeseen events in investment landscapes.
Although generative AI's integration into the investment management industry has not reached full maturation, Chia and Dave are strategic about its application, acknowledging potential biases and ethical concerns. "Having a clear vision detailing what needs to be achieved and what success looks like could help drive the development," they advised, displaying a cautious yet forward-thinking approach to AI's burgeoning role in finance.
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The realm of finance and investment may be on the brink of an AI revolution, following a groundbreaking study conducted by researchers from the University of Florida.
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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(85) "/invest-money/stock-market/new-study-finds-chatgpt-can-predict-stock-market-movements" ["image"]=> string(150) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1701121306/New_study_finds_ChatGPT_can_predict_stock_market_movements_l6xdmq.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(58) "New study finds ChatGPT can predict stock market movements" } [1]=> object(stdClass)#7890 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18314) ["title"]=> string(56) "Markets succumb to jitters as US CPI maintains strength " ["alias"]=> string(55) "markets-succumb-to-jitters-as-us-cpi-maintains-strength" ["introtext"]=> string(286) "Following a slight drop of 0.2 per cent in the United States inflation rate, the latest US April consumer price index (CPI) data indicating higher than expected figures has triggered a fall in the US share markets, leading to a reverberation through its Australian counterpart.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(3288) "Although the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hike the interest rate by its highest margin in decades has been followed by an inflationary drop from 8.5 per cent to 8.3 per cent, it’s still an alarmingly high rate above the expected 8.1 per cent.
And the new inflation figure has led to some worrying drops in share markets despite suggestions that the US has passed peak inflation.The S&P 500 index was down 1.65 per cent, while the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 3.18 per cent.
Overall, falls in 2022 have been troubling, with the S&P 500 losing as much as 17.4 per cent - reportedly its worst start to a year in nearly a century - and the Nasdaq Composite dropping a worrisome 27 per cent.
And as indicated by the latest figures from the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), the Australian market is presently feeling the brunt of the US shock, with tech shares battered by mass sell-offs causing significant pain for investors. As of 1pm, Thursday, the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) was down by more than 5 per cent.
While the long-term consequences of this share market fall are presently unclear, financial experts believe the stubborn US inflation could provoke the Federal Reserve into more aggressive action.
According to Russel Chesler, head of investments and capital markets at investment service VanEck, there is “greater chance that we could see more aggressive interest rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve this year”.
Mr Chesler’s assessment follows an admission by Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, who said he is open to “moving more” on rates if inflation remains at current levels.
“With inflation sitting at a 40-year high, equity markets are on edge as the US Fed moves into an aggressive monetary tightening cycle, unwinding the huge amount of monetary stimulus we’ve seen in recent times,” Mr Chesler said, noting that this has fuelled concerns about an impending global recession and possibly stagflation.
In a caution that could provoke intense worry among investors, he said shares could weaken further with the “risk that inflation keeps shooting higher”.
According to Mr Chesler, the US share market remains “especially vulnerable” to higher inflation and interest rates, “dominated as it is by growth stocks, particularly tech shares, which have dropped sharply on higher bond yields”.
Chiming in on the stubbornly high inflation rate in the US, GSFM investment strategist Stephen Miller explained that despite a more aggressive approach from the Fed, financial markets “may well remain in a volatile phase”.
He explained that markets would need time to assess the success of the Fed in reining in inflation without risking a substantial economic dislocation.
“The assessments arising from the Ukraine conflict together with the fallout from China’s COVID lockdown only add to the sources of volatility,” Mr Miller said.
As for the ASX, Mr Chesler remained optimistic.
“We are sticking with our view that the Australian share market is likely to outperform the US share market, with the heavyweight miners and energy exporters benefiting from higher prices."
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Following a slight drop of 0.2 per cent in the United States inflation rate, the latest US April consumer price index (CPI) data indicating higher than expected figures has triggered a fall in the US share markets, leading to a reverberation through its Australian counterpart.
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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(82) "/invest-money/stock-market/markets-succumb-to-jitters-as-us-cpi-maintains-strength" ["image"]=> string(47) "images/article-826x550/new-stock-line-up-ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(56) "Markets succumb to jitters as US CPI maintains strength " } [2]=> object(stdClass)#7889 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18264) ["title"]=> string(70) "Qantas forecasts return to profitability, announces ultra-long flights" ["alias"]=> string(69) "qantas-forecasts-return-to-profitability-announces-ultra-long-flights" ["introtext"]=> string(219) "Qantas expects its net debt to condense from $5.5 billion at the end of 2021 to $4.5 billion at the end of April following a period of sustained recovery in travel demand.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(3858) "The return of domestic travel ahead of expectations and a solid international performance are expected to drive “significant” levels of positive free cash flow in the third quarter, Qantas said in an ASX listing on Monday.
“After a few false starts, we’re finally seeing a sustained recovery in travel demand,” said Qantas CEO, Alan Joyce.
“People have confidence in domestic borders now that we’ve shifted to living with COVID and that’s bringing us back towards pre-pandemic levels of flying,” Mr Joyce noted.
“The recovery in business traffic has been faster than we expected. Once mask mandates were removed and people went back to the office, there was a clear uptick in demand. We’re now at around 85 per cent of pre-COVID levels for domestic corporate travel and more than 100 per cent for small business.”
The airline reported that strong revenue growth has reduced net debt from $5.5 billion at 31 December 2021 to $4.5 billion at the end of April to below pre-COVID levels. This compares to a peak of more than $6.4 billion at the height of border closures.
Qantas clarified that while it still expects to post a significant full year underlying EBIT loss for FY22 that includes the worst of the Delta and Omicron impacts as well as one-off restart costs, the business is on track for 2H22 underlying EBITDA of between $450 million to $550 million based on current expectations.
According to the airline, group domestic is expected to be EBIT positive in 4Q22 and group international is on a clear pathway to full recovery supporting Qantas returning to profitability in FY23.
Following recent public uproar over a shortage of staff, Mr Joyce said Qantas plans to fill over 2,500 roles over the next 12 months.
“Our strategy has been to restructure the business so we could survive the pandemic and then recover quickly when travel normalised. That’s why reducing cost was absolutely crucial,” the CEO said.
“We’re seeing the benefits of that strategy now and it gives us the confidence to make the long-term investment decisions that are key to future growth and shareholder value.”
Also on Monday, Qantas announced the order of 12 Airbus A350s capable of flying direct from Australia to any other city including New York and London, starting from Sydney in late 2025.
“The A350 and Project Sunrise will make any city just one flight away from Australia. It’s the last frontier and the final fix for the tyranny of distance. As you’d expect, the cabin is being specially designed for maximum comfort in all classes for long-haul flying,” Mr Joyce said in a separate ASX filing.
Qantas is also planning a domestic fleet renewal from late 2023, with the order of A321XLRs and A220 aircraft.
“The A320s and A220s will become the backbone of our domestic fleet for the next 20 years, helping to keep this country moving. Their range and economics will make new direct routes possible, including serving regional cities better.
“These newer aircraft and engines will reduce emissions by at least 15 per cent if running on fossil fuels, and significantly better when run on Sustainable Aviation Fuel. This order brings us closer to our commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050,” Mr Joyce said, adding that Project Sunrise will be carbon neutral from day one.
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Qantas expects its net debt to condense from $5.5 billion at the end of 2021 to $4.5 billion at the end of April following a period of sustained recovery in travel demand.
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["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8122 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(29) "Paste your embedded code here" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(96) "/invest-money/stock-market/qantas-forecasts-return-to-profitability-announces-ultra-long-flights" ["image"]=> string(44) "images/article-826x550/Qantas-signage-ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(6) "Qantas" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#7888 (57) { ["id"]=> int(17834) ["title"]=> string(40) "Headwinds to outnumber tailwinds in 2022" ["alias"]=> string(40) "headwinds-to-outnumber-tailwinds-in-2022" ["introtext"]=> string(142) "Headwinds are likely to outnumber tailwinds in 2022 as the world continues to readjust to the post-pandemic era, one expert has said.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(2755) "Investors should brace themselves for three major headwinds in 2022, the chief executive of a deVere Group, Nigel Green, warned.
“Headwinds – the factors that weigh down growth and positive returns – are likely to outnumber the tailwinds in 2022 as the world continues to readjust to the post-pandemic era,” Mr Green said.
According to Mr Green, currently, there are three main issues that investors should be monitoring carefully and, depending on their portfolios, taking steps from which to mitigate the risks.
The first, Mr Green explained, is inflation.
“It’s a risk that is a major concern for most investors around the world. Why? Because it kills returns by eroding the buying power.
“Of course, the other reason is that higher inflation usually brings higher interest rates in response from central banks. When rates are hiked, typically consumer and business spending falls, borrowing becomes more expensive, economic activity slows, and financial markets fall,” he said.
The second is China.
“The country’s economic growth is uncertain. Much of the recent slowdown has been fuelled by the wider impact of the collapse of huge property developers such as Evergrande,” Mr Green said.
“Plus, the regulatory attack on tutoring, and other sectors such as gaming and ride-sharing, appears to highlight the Chinese government’s new thinking and its increasing push for control of private enterprise.
“Given the state-sponsored attack on private capital, investors will be required to take a leap of faith regarding China’s political strategies.”
The third is COVID.
“Whilst the markets have largely shrugged off the impact of the Omicron variant, there is still no certainty about how it will play out in the longer term. Will it impact economies due to the introduction of new restrictions? Which sectors will be hit the hardest? How will it impact the workforce? How will already shaky supply chains be managed?”
In addition, Mr Green noted, this uncertainty about growth, demand and investment is all kicking off as central banks and governments are withdrawing stimulus.
“However, it’s essential that investors stay invested. As we know, history has shown us that markets tend to go up over the long term,” he noted.
Mr Green advised investors to ensure their portfolios are suitably diversified across asset classes, sectors, currencies, and regions to make the most of the considerable opportunities that will inevitably present themselves.
He concluded: “Investor portfolios must reflect the future, not the past.”
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Headwinds are likely to outnumber tailwinds in 2022 as the world continues to readjust to the post-pandemic era, one expert has said.
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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(67) "/invest-money/stock-market/headwinds-to-outnumber-tailwinds-in-2022" ["image"]=> string(39) "images/article-826x550/inflation-ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(40) "Headwinds to outnumber tailwinds in 2022" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#7887 (57) { ["id"]=> int(17644) ["title"]=> string(59) "Aussies can now net frequent flyer points by trading stocks" ["alias"]=> string(61) "aussies-can-now-net-frequent-flyer-points-by-trading-stocks-2" ["introtext"]=> string(158) "Superhero is looking to sweeten the deal for traders who are excited for the return of international travel.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(4029) "Investing app Superhero is looking to lure retail traders through a new alliance with Qantas.
As part of the partnership, Superhero users will be able to earn Qantas frequent flyer points through trading and other activities conducted via the investment platform.
Superhero co-founder and CEO John Winters said that the partnership couldn’t have come at a better time.
“It’s been a difficult couple of years, and this new offer will allow Australians to grow both their wealth as well as their Qantas points balance,” he said.
Up until the 28th of February 2022, Superhero users will be able to net 500 points per trade on their first 10 eligible trades and another 5,000 points for transferring their existing US or AU share portfolio into Superhero.
While bonus points earned via the app are capped at 15,000, Superhero users will also be able to earn 100 per trade ongoing plus extra for each dollar they transfer from AUD to USD within the platform at a rate of one point per $5.
Mr Winters said that Australians are looking to make the most of their money as borders reopen and international travel returns.
“There’s been a big generational shift for Australians to become more engaged with their finances – and this partnership will help us support more Australians with their investing and wealth goals – as well as literally helping them to take to the skies with Qantas,” he said.
The retail trading app landscape in Australia has exploded in recent years, with Superhero, Stake, Sharesies and others vying to become the “Robin Hood” of the region.
Considered in that context, Superhero’s partnership with Qantas is a fresh attempt by the trading platform to differentiate itself from the competition without eating into the margins of its business model.
For its part, Qantas sees the partnership as an extension of its ongoing efforts to broaden the frequent flyer ecosystem.
Qantas loyalty CEO Olivia Wirth said that frequent flyers could already earn points walking, sleeping, shopping and flying, so why not share trading?
“This partnership with Superhero reflects a focus on providing our members with more ways to earn Qantas points,” she said.
Ms Wirth expects that the ability to earn a few extra frequent flyer points while trading on the stock market will be a hit.
“Research shows that almost nine million Australians hold shares, so we think being able to earn points while trading shares will be popular with a large number of our frequent flyers.”
Earlier this year, a report by AUSIEX found that Australia’s retail trading sector rose from 650,000 to 1.25 million over the course of 2020.
At the time, AUSIEX’s head of markets and client solutions, Mathew Tilley, argued that this data shows that younger traders were beginning to become increasingly active in the market even before the pandemic.
“While this generation may have been hampered by some unfavourable economic circumstances, such as diminishing household affordability, this demographic has increased disposable income and a strong values-based approach to investments,” he said.
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Superhero is looking to sweeten the deal for traders who are excited for the return of international travel.
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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(88) "/invest-money/stock-market/aussies-can-now-net-frequent-flyer-points-by-trading-stocks-2" ["image"]=> string(47) "images/article-826x550/Qantas-plane-2020-ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(21) "frequent flyer points" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#7886 (57) { ["id"]=> int(17594) ["title"]=> string(24) "Facebook debuts new name" ["alias"]=> string(24) "facebook-debuts-new-name" ["introtext"]=> string(63) "Zuck gets meta.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(3198) "Facebook has rebranded itself with a new name: Meta.
“From now on, we will be metaverse-first, not Facebook-first,” Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said.
The metaverse is a high-concept project that Mr Zuckerberg has been teasing for several years now.
The term itself originally comes from Neal Stephenson’s novel Snow Crash, but modern backers of the idea typically pitch it as a virtual-reality counterpart or successor to the internet.
According to Meta, “the metaverse will feel like a hybrid of today’s online social experiences, sometimes expanded into three dimensions or projected into the physical world”.
The move doesn’t mean any change for Meta’s internal corporate structure, though it will change the way the company reports its financials each quarter. The company will also be retiring their FB stock ticker for a new MVRS one in December.
In an open letter about the name change, Mr Zuckerberg said that the Facebook brand was so tightly linked to a single product that it failed to reflect the company’s future ambitions.
“The metaverse is the next frontier in connecting people, just like social networking was when we got started,” he said.
Over the next decade, Mr Zuckerberg suggested that the metaverse could reach an audience of billions, create millions of new jobs and host hundreds of billions of dollars in digital commerce.
“We believe the metaverse can enable better social experiences than anything that exists today, and we will dedicate our energy to helping achieve its potential,” he said.
The announcement comes several weeks after reports surfaced that the social networking giant was considering a new name and amidst a wave of new controversies spawned by the release of confidential documents by whistleblower Frances Haugen.
Monash University’s Dr Luke Greenacre described the name change as confusing.
“The purpose of the new branding seems quite unclear; if it is to move on from the current controversies that Facebook is experiencing, then it somewhat underestimates its users and their memory of the change,” he said.
Dr Greenacre also suggested that it may prove counterproductive for Facebook’s performance in the market.
“Although Facebook as a brand has some baggage, it remains a really powerful brand in the market that people know. Throwing that away seems very bold, and quite questionable as a business decision.”
- Yes
Zuck gets meta.
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"Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#8484 (33) { ["id"]=> int(2) ["title"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["name"]=> string(14) "embedded-video" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:43:32" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(5) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8115 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8120 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8117 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8122 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(29) "Paste your embedded code here" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(51) "/invest-money/stock-market/facebook-debuts-new-name" ["image"]=> string(43) "images/article-826x550/Meta-Facebook-ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(13) "Facebook Meta" } }Subscribe to our newletters
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