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International equities are set to improve at the expense of US equities over the next 12 months as markets finally find the floor after a tumultuous 2019, a global investment manager has indicated.

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T. Rowe Price recently shared its knowledge and investment to provide a number of predictions for 2020 at its annual global market outlook briefing.

The global investment management organisation indicated that international equity markets have serially lagged US markets over the last 10 years – the result of “a combination of structural factors, currency, widening valuation disparities and cyclical factors”.

It observed a “continuation of underperformance as global economies have slowed and international earnings have been disproportionately affected by the US and China’s trade dispute”.

Despite the circumstances and undervalued currencies, it is T. Rowe Price’s view “that the cyclical conditions for international equities to outperform are present”.

This perspective is based on the belief that “growth and inflation expectations have now bottomed out, and takes into consideration the fact that markets are 18 months into a capital expenditure recession, are eight months into an inventory correction, and have been facing political headwinds from the trade war and Brexit”.

T. Rowe Price’s stance on international equity markets is one held just as firmly by portfolio manager and chief investment officer Justin Thomson, who said he anticipates that the cyclical conditions are now right for outperformance (when compared with US equities).

“We may be on the verge of a shift,” he said, noting how heavily recent political headwinds have been felt internationally.

Some of the structural merits for a pick-up in international markets include rising innovation, better corporate governance models, and better demographics exhibiting across emerging markets.

For Mr Thomson, “there is also the potential for valuation to catch up in international equities”.

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International equities are set to improve at the expense of US equities over the next 12 months as markets finally find the floor after a tumultuous 2019, a global investment manager has indicated.

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With the Conservative Party regaining power, the world’s eyes turned to Brexit and how the new government will handle its impending exit from the European Union.

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According to Paras Anand, Fidelity’s head of asset management, Asia Pacific, investors need to pay close attention to the result due to fiscal policy, contrarian signals on inflation and the strength of the British pound.

The Tory’s victory will likely see the government leave the European Union and change the outlook on inflation despite inflation measures showing signs of an uptick across world markets, Mr Anand said.

“Give the number of ‘false alarms’ over inflationary upticks in recent years, it is likely that central banks will position themselves behind the curve, which could, in sharp contrast to consensus, lead to inflation overshooting on the upside over the medium term,” Mr Anand said.

Quentin Fitzsimmons, fixed income portfolio manager at T.Rowe Price, believes the new government will mean rates are unlikely to be cut.

“The fact that a no‑deal Brexit is off the table in the near term reduces the likelihood of the Bank of England cutting interest rates anytime soon. 

“As such, UK government bond yields are likely to remain range‑bound for the time being, although they may fall if there are increased concerns over a global recession,” Mr Fitzsimmons said.

Mr Anand also said the strength of the pound is one to watch as the US dollar continues to be supported by a tighter stance to monetary policy.

“First, as the immediate rally in the pound suggests, this could be another signal that the long period of US dollar outperformance in the context of currency markets is coming to an end,” said Mr Anand.

Finally, the fund manager believes England is likely to rally through infrastructure and healthcare policies following a Conservative victory.

“Johnson, in particular, has a track record of supporting investment in larger-scale infrastructure projects. This aligns with a global trend we expect to continue in the coming months, one of the government’s finding recourse in fiscal policy rather than monetary policy to support economic growth,” Mr Anand said.

“While these campaigns are clearly focused on supporting domestic growth, it is important for investors to consider the cumulative impact of this global shift in economic strategy,” Mr Anand continued.

“At first glance, the outcome of a snap election in the UK should have little bearing for global markets. But considered in the context of what could prove to be more meaningful turning points in economic policy and market leadership, investors would do well to pay closer attention,” Mr Anand concluded.

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With the Conservative Party regaining power, the world’s eyes turned to Brexit and how the new government will handle its impending exit from the European Union.

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Internal market making occurs when the fund’s responsible entity acts as the market maker for its own fund on the fund’s behalf, either by submitting bids and offers itself or by engaging a transaction agent that executes its instructions.

In a statement, ASIC noted that it “intends to work with market operators and other stakeholders to ensure new funds being admitted for quotation use compliant models and changes that are required to existing models are made as soon as possible”.

“In some models, market-maker quotes are lead indicators of changes to fund portfolio values rather than responding to publicly available information such as indicative net asset values (iNAVs),” ASIC’s review noted.

Funds using the model tend not to disclose their portfolio holdings daily and are also usually actively managed funds. 

But funds engaging in internal market making only represent around 6 per cent of funds under management in exchange-traded products.

The regulator has asked that they ensure that: 

• input for market-making quotes is a reference price or other information that is publicly available
• internal compliance and supervision arrangements are adequate
• information barriers are established to ensure decisions to buy or sell units not made by persons or systems with knowledge of the current portfolio holdings
• there are adequate arrangements for identifying and responding to instances of substantial information asymmetry in the market, which may include cessation of market-making activities or requesting a trading halt

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator"]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2019-12-13 01:29:22" ["slug"]=> string(31) "14289:asic-lifts-active-etf-ban" ["parent_slug"]=> string(16) "284:invest-money" ["catslug"]=> string(16) "286:stock-market" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#2693 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(417) "" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(229) "

ASIC has lifted its halt on active managed ETFs that do not disclose their portfolio holdings daily and engage in internal market making, despite growing concerns within the sector.

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The Westpac board has faced the music when the board met its shareholders during the 2019 annual general meeting following AUSTRAC’s probe into the big four bank.

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Westpac investors have roasted the board and called for the directors to hand back their fees over the bank’s child exploitation scandal.

Outgoing chairman Lindsay Maxsted faced more than two hours of questioning during Thursday’s AGM, with shareholders demanding to know how bank will atone for allegedly allowing money transfers to be linked to child abuse in Asia.

One shareholder noted “you should go now, you should all go”, to the applause of a vocal minority.

‘We are deeply sorry’

Mr Maxsted, who was pressured to bring forward his retirement, began the AGM with an apologetic tone.

“We are deeply sorry,” the chairman said to a snickers and boos from members while stating the board has taken a 20 per cent pay cut and some short-term bonuses to zero.

“We should have implemented more robust transaction monitoring earlier than we did,” the board member continued.

Acting chief executive officer Peter King said he was devastated by the allegations in AUSTRAC’s Statement of Claim.

“That a mistake by Westpac may have exposed anyone, particularly children, to the risk of harm is distressing for all of us.

“By falling short of expectations, we have let down customers, shareholders, the community and our people,” Mr King stated.

Outlook moving forward

Mr King believes the bank will continue to face soft conditions with growth remaining low, interest rates expected to fall further and ongoing regulatory intensity.

“While the environment will continue to drag on performance in the 2020 year, we should see some balance sheet growth without a significant deterioration in credit quality.

“However, there will be extra costs as we work through the remaining regulator issues,” Mr King concluded.

At the time of writing, the price of Westpac Banking Corp had fallen by 1.23 per cent to 24.08 a share.

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The Westpac board has faced the music when the board met its shareholders during the 2019 annual general meeting following AUSTRAC’s probe into the big four bank.

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Westpac has surpassed its $500 million capital raise from retail investors, despite the major bank facing scrutiny from the corporate regulator.

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In the weeks leading up to the capital raise, it came out that Australian anti-terrorism regulator AUSTRAC is seeking civil penalty orders against the big four bank for more than 23 million alleged breaches of the anti-money laundering laws.

While the scandal cost Westpac its CEO, the bank still managed to raise $770 million under its Share Purchase Plan (SPP).

The result this weeks saw Westpac issue approximately 31.9 million new shares on Wednesday to 40,990 applicants.

However, following the bank’s allowance for investors to walk away following the scandal, the final amount raised was $770 million, excluding $68 million from around 3,390 shareholders who no longer want to be a part of the SPP.

The share plan had been available to around 618,300 shareholders.

The major bank’s raise proved controversial, with some questioning how much it knew about a potential AUSTRAC enforcement.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator"]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2019-12-12 01:29:37" ["slug"]=> string(37) "14280:westpac-completes-capital-raise" ["parent_slug"]=> string(16) "284:invest-money" ["catslug"]=> string(16) "286:stock-market" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#2697 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(417) "" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(192) "

Westpac has surpassed its $500 million capital raise from retail investors, despite the major bank facing scrutiny from the corporate regulator.

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As the conflict rages on, it’s becoming clear that it’s not about the money.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(3645) "

The trade war is a mess. Markets rise and fall on Donald Trump’s tweets, while stockbrokers pray that President Xi Jinping, an inscrutable Communist Party zealot, will switch things up with a bit of free market capitalism. Bloomberg has been insisting for over a year that we are just days away from a comprehensive deal – flashbacks to the infamous “Friedman Unit” here – while Trump administration officials grandstand on Fox News. 

In this environment, everybody has a prediction; everybody wants to be the Nostradamus who called the outcome by performing a comprehensive content analysis of CCP media releases to determine that Xi actually will kowtow to Trump’s demand to stop pumping subsidies into state-owned enterprises.

The fundamental misunderstanding that has shaped this sort of commentary on the trade war is that it’s about economics. Of course, that’s a logical assumption to make – you would hope that a trade war is about economics. 

But as the conflict rages on, with a viable resolution increasingly unlikely, it’s become clear that economics isn’t the real game. 

The word TARIFF is a beautiful word indeed

To understand the trade war, you have to understand how it’s being fought. 

The cornerstone tactic of the Trump administration has been tariffs. Here’s the thing about tariffs: people know what they are. They’re taxes on foreign goods. It’s not some moderately complex economic policy that would be easier to understand if you’d had the benefit of an undergraduate level education. Kentucky coal miners know what tariffs are, as do the conservative high school students who form a larger part of Trump’s base than most analysts care to admit. 

“When you are the ‘Piggy Bank’ Nation that foreign countries have been robbing and deceiving for years, the word TARIFF is a beautiful word indeed! Others must treat the United States fairly and with respect – We are no longer the ‘fools’ of the past!” President Trump tweeted on 2 June 2019. 

And that’s just it. People want something that’s easy to understand, something that sounds like it’s working – tariffs. 

The trade war was always about PR. 

The economic positives have been few, the negatives many. Global consumer confidence has been shaken to its core, and American farmers aren’t even getting much out of it. The only real beneficiary of the trade war has been Trump, whose appearance as a strongman willing to use brute force to get his way has played well with his base. Trump can point to tariffs – which make a hell of a splash when they’re announced – and say he’s doing something. And that’s all he needs to do. 

Predictions about the outcome fall flat because they use a logical, fact-based approach. That’s a mistake. The trade war is being fought by a television host and real estate developer who knows how to work a crowd, and that’s exactly what he’s doing. 

Doubt it?

Turn your attention to more recent developments. Trump has opened several new fronts in what’s becoming a global trade war by imposing tariffs on Brazil and Argentina over baseless accusations they had intentionally devalued their currency. The move caught markets completely off guard, but Trump’s fans went wild. With Trump now threatening to impose tariffs on France – with little justification – it’s becoming more and more clear that the trade war is about hearts and minds, not soybeans and pork.

 

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As the conflict rages on, it’s becoming clear that it’s not about the money.

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