Stock market

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The Australian sharemarket has fallen on the bell after Wall Street experienced sharp sell-offs overnight due to hotter than expected inflation data.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(3843) "

Following the release of US inflationary figures, world markets took a dive, with the US S&P 500 closing 2.2 per cent lower, while the technology heavy Nasdaq, which is more sensitive to increases in inflation, fell by 2.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 also fell, closing at 6,939 after opening at 7,123.

Despite falls worldwide, Dr Shane Oliver opines Australia's market is likely to be insulated from heavy market falls due to having a less tech based stock market.

"The impact is likely to be less as our share market has not gone up as much, it’s cheaper, we have less tech stocks which are highly sensitive to higher inflation and bond yields, and Australian inflation is unlikely to rise as much as that in the US. So far so good, with the ASX 200 only down -0.4 per cent," Dr Oliver told nestegg. 

While Australia’s market as a whole only fell by 0.40 per cent, ASX tech stocks bore the brunt of the falls. 

Shares in Perenti Global is down 16.9 per cent, while Xero declined 10.1 per cent – albeit on earnings downgrades – and shares in Afterpay slid by 7.2 per cent. 

The Australian dollar also fell overnight, albeit recovering slightly from losses with $1 now buying 77.28 US cents.

US inflation jumps

Off the back of government support, supply bottlenecks and increased spending as economic activity returns post-lockdowns, US inflation jumped to 4.2 per cent over its levels a year ago, a jump surprising leading economists.

Headline inflation jumped 0.8 per cent month-on-month versus the 0.2 per cent consensus while the core (food and energy) component rose 0.9 per cent versus the 0.3 per cent forecast.

“This is the highest headline month-on-month reading since September 2009 and the highest core reading since 1981. It leaves the annual rates of inflation at 4.2 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively,” ING’s chief international economist James Knightley said.

This isn’t the peak

Inflation is likely to head even higher over the next couple of months as price levels in a vibrant, strengthening economy that has supply constraints contrast starkly with those of 12 months ago when the economy was in lockdown and prices were being slashed in order to generate cash flow.

ING is now predicting headline CPI in May to be at 4.5 per cent and core at 3.3 per cent.

“Admittedly, the annual rates should start edging lower as we move through 3Q and the economic extreme of lockdown is no longer included in the calculation. Nonetheless, we are not as optimistic as the Federal Reserve in thinking this is purely ‘transitory’, and we will quickly be back down to 2 per cent and stay there,” Mr Knightley explained.

Should inflation worry investors?

While inflation is likely to persist both domestically and abroad due to massive government stimulus packages, Dr Oliver opines inflation concerns could be short lived.

"Viewed in a very long-term context, though we are likely now going through the bottoming of the long-term decline in inflation that has been in place since the early 1980s, a reversal in globalisation and a decline in workers relative to consumers results in higher inflation on a more sustained basis," Dr Oliver explained to nestegg. 

"This is ultimately what central banks are aiming for. In this context the spike in inflation now occurring is likely part of a long-term or secular bottoming process for inflation and bond yields. This will take several years to play out and the question is whether it results in inflation ultimately averaging around target or something higher. Our base case is the former, although the risks are possibly swinging to the latter."

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The Australian sharemarket has fallen on the bell after Wall Street experienced sharp sell-offs overnight due to hotter than expected inflation data.

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Australia’s improving economic outlook has seen the profits of a big four bank surge, which is said to signal strong dividend gains across the market, an industry expert has revealed.

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In a statement to the market on Monday, Westpac said its cash earnings had risen 256 per cent to $3.5 billion, in what chief executive Peter King called “a promising start to the year”.

The bank said it had recorded a net profit of $3.4 billion for the first half of the 2021 financial year, up 189 per cent on the prior corresponding period.

“First-half earnings were considerably higher than the prior corresponding period, mainly due to an impairment benefit reflecting improved asset quality and a better economic outlook,” Mr King said.

“Importantly, we are beginning to see the benefits of our new operating model through improved performance.”

The big four bank’s cash profits were heavily weighed down last year by provisions for bad loans due to the uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic.

With an improving economic outlook the bank revised provisions seeing a surge in profits.

Mr King said the bank’s mortgage book had soared more than $2.6 billion over the past six months due to soaring demand in the property market.

“Owner-occupier loans increased 3 per cent [in the half], with first home buyers making up 13 per cent of new loans,” he said.

Mr King added that the bank still “remained prudent in our impairment positioning” despite the improved economic outlook for the Australian economy.

Following canceled dividend payments last year, Westpac will reward shareholder by paying a fully franked interim dividend of 58¢ a share on 25 June.

Plato’s senior portfolio manager, Dr Peter Gardner, said Westpac’s results and the imminent releases of its big four peers should signal a turning point for dividend investors.

“The half-year results from Westpac support the notion that Australian banks have navigated the COVID-19 crisis exceptionally well, and now we think their Australian investors, particularly the mums, dads and retirees, can breathe a sigh of relief,” Dr Gardner said.

He said the outlook for income investors looks remarkably bright, especially when you consider how things were looking just six months ago.

“While income from cash-backed assets continues to languish, fortunately, we are in the midst of a major turning point for dividend income, buoyed by the strong recovery of financials and also the continued strength of our major miners.

“We project the ASX 200 is on track to return around 5 per cent gross yield in the coming 12 months,” Dr Gardner concluded.

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Australia’s improving economic outlook has seen the profits of a big four bank surge, which is said to signal strong dividend gains across the market, an industry expert has revealed.

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Internet searching does not exacerbate investors’ biases – instead, it facilitates their ability to access and analyse information, new research has revealed.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(2775) "

New research by RMIT University appears to have overturned a previous truth that unrestrictive internet searches could lead to an overvaluation of stocks and up the chances of a stock market crash. Instead, researches have now suggested that the direct opposite, imposing limits on internet searches for investors, actually increases stock market crash risk by 19 per cent.  

According to lead researcher Dr Gaoping Zheng, a lecturer in finance at RMIT, the study showed that search results influenced decisions, a challenge to previous thinking that they merely justified people’s existing ideas.

“Until now it’s been widely thought that unrestrictive internet searches result in bias and an overvaluation of stocks, but that would mean restricting search would decrease stock market crash risk. Instead, we saw a significant jump,” Dr Zheng said.

“This suggests internet searching does not exacerbate investors’ biases – instead, it facilitates their ability to access and analyse information.”

In arriving at its findings, the research by RMIT looked at the ramifications on the stock market following Google’s unexpected withdrawal from mainland China in 2010. It found access to unbiased information about companies’ performance – aided by unrestricted internet search results – led to investors making more informed decisions.

This, Dr Zheng said, has implications for Australia, following Google’s recent attempt to withdraw from the country.

“While China has alternative search engines, their results are concentrated and an identical search on Google would show vastly different results,” Dr Zheng said.

“Our research emphasises the importance of access to diverse results, and if Google did decide to withdraw, it could have a destabilising impact on the economy.”

Dr Zheng pointed out that following Google’s withdrawal, Chinese investors were likely to be shown positively biased information from websites hosted in China. She noted that restricted searches also gave firms opportunities to hide adverse news from the public.

“Google was more likely to show content from international websites such as Bloomberg, Reuters or The New York Times, which are free from political constraints to talk about what is happening,” she said.

“If managers withhold negative news, investors are less likely to mitigate their misconceptions and biases surrounding a certain stock,” she said.

“Let’s say I believed that eating carrots could cure cancer and searched the internet to confirm this. An unrestricted search would correct my bias because I would find that carrots are not actually a cure for cancer,” Dr Zheng concluded.

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Internet searching does not exacerbate investors’ biases – instead, it facilitates their ability to access and analyse information, new research has revealed.

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Following a volatile 2020 where investors poured into ETFs, shareholders are tipped to focus on ethical investing and technology as the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continues, an industry expert has said. 

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Figures released by BetaShares showed that Australia’s ETF industry has now passed $100 billion in funds under management for the first time in history, with social issues likely to push its strong growth into the future. 

Now standing at $102.9 billion, the industry added $8 billion in the first quarter of 2021 after a record-breaking 2020, which saw funds grow by over 50 per cent over the course of the year. 

BetaShares chief executive officer Alex Vynokur highlighted that record growth in the back half of 2020 is likely to continue into 2021.

“We anticipate strong investor demand will be maintained through the rest of 2021, and predict the ETF industry will end the year with around $125 billion FUM,” Mr Vynokur said.

Mr Vynokur opined that much of the growth will come through the technology and ethical sectors, with strong consumer demand leading more ETF options for consumers. 

“The increased interest in socially responsible investing coincides with widespread and growing concern around the environment and global warming,” Mr Vynokur said.

“We think this interest is likely to continue as the global economy emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“As economies open up again, investors will have a chance to look for portfolios and companies whose practices align with their ethical values, including less reliance on fossil fuels, stronger corporate governance and, partly as a result of the pandemic, increasing awareness of ‘social’ (the S in ESG) factors,” the CEO continued. 

Mr Vynokur opined that the Australian ETF industry has emerged from a year of uncertainty in a strong position, which will be the catalyst for a strong 2021. 

“While we have recently seen some retail traders overseas caught up in speculative activity in particularly volatile stocks, investors more broadly continue to recognise the benefits of ETFs in establishing a resilient long-term portfolio,” he concluded.

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Following a volatile 2020 where investors poured into ETFs, shareholders are tipped to focus on ethical investing and technology as the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continues, an industry expert has said. 

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The phenomenon of retail investors acting as a collective, led by social media and celebrity investors, is here to stay, says one expert.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(2658) "

The first quarter of 2021 signalled a crazy ride for the stock markets, driven largely by online investment communities gathered on social media platforms and online forums like Reddit.

But while day-trading frenzies appear to be fizzling out, with platforms that facilitated this activist investing reporting a flatlining of the ‘movement’, one expert opined that the concept of collective investing is here to stay.  

According to deVere Group’s CEO, Nigel Green, retail investors are set to become a whole lot more important.

“I believe while the mass hype and hysteria might be fading, this phenomenon of retail investors acting as a collective, and led by social media and celebrity investors, is here to stay,” Mr Green said.

“Moving forward, they are likely to be as influential as major hedge funds in moving markets,” he noted.

RMIT senior lecturer Dr Angel Zhong agrees. She opined that investor herding and the word-of-mouth effect will continue to maintain their presence beyond stock market crazes such as the GameStop saga.

“Stock market participation is affected by social learning. The prevalence of social media in investment is a catalyst,” Dr Zhong explained.  

Mr Green, on the other hand, sees Elon Musk as a key catalyst in the democratising of the stock market.

But despite applauding Mr Musk’s popularity among small-scale day traders, he warned the billionaire’s admirers to be wary of the downsides.

“As we’re now seeing, many of these small-scale investors – typically inexperienced, younger people who might not necessarily have the financial resources to be resilient against usually highly speculative and volatile investments – are playing a potentially hugely costly game.

“I would urge them to adopt the cool of Elon Musk and the savvy of Warren Buffett,” Mr Green said.

He opined that the instincts and skillsets of both these mega investors combined will be a powerful strategy for any investor.

“Elon can spot future trends like very few others, focuses on sustainability, has utter conviction, takes risks, and is a master at harnessing the power of social media for business.

“Meanwhile, Warren’s focus is on time-honoured fundamentals, including diversification, cash flow and profitability,” he said.

Overall, Mr Green explained that the future of investment is this fine line between forward-thinking drive and old-fashioned principles, urging both the leaders of the new era to exercise responsibility and investors to exercise caution.

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Short selling stocks may sound like a good investment strategy when you’re after quick and big returns, but is it worth the risk? Here’s a rundown of why shorting stocks may not be a sound stock trading strategy. 

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Short-sellers have been bagging financial news headlines since the start of the year. Notably, the infamous GameStop short squeeze saga had investors looking into short selling and wondering if it’s the right stock trading strategy for them. 

Shorting, or short selling, is when an investor borrows an asset and immediately sells it. The goal is to wait for the anticipated decline in the asset’s price and buy it later at a lower value. Next, the investor returns it to the lender and pockets the difference. 

While short selling may be the perfect strategy for capitalising on falling stock prices and gaining lucrative returns, it comes with even more downside risk than buying shares the traditional way. Here’s why you should be more cautious before jumping on the short selling bandwagon. 

How does shorting stocks work? 

Before we get to the risks that short selling poses, let’s get a better understanding of how it works. The main purpose of short selling stocks is that the investor profits when the stock price falls in value. It means that you’re betting that the stock will see a decline in the immediate future. Generally, it’s the opposite of the normal process of buying and holding stocks, in which an investor buys a stock with the expectation that it will rise in price and it will be sold at a profit. 

Another main feature of short selling is that the seller is selling a stock that they do not own. This means they’re selling a stock before they purchase it. To do this, investors must borrow the stock that they’re selling from an investment broker. At that point, they can buy the stock for delivery, then close out the short position at a profit. 

You may be thinking, what happens if it doesn’t go according to plan and the stock price rises? In this scenario, a seller can choose to hold a short position until the stock does decline in price or they can cut their losses and close out the position. 

Should you sell short?

Short selling can be a great strategy when you’re certain that a stock will decrease in value. However, in addition to the previously mentioned risk of suffering a loss on a trade from a stock’s price increasing, there are additional risks that investors should keep in mind.

Potential for unlimited losses

The biggest downside risk when short selling is the potential for infinite loss. The upside of going long on an asset is that you know you can lose 100 per cent of your investment if the stock price falls to $0. While this loss is bad, at least your potential loss stops with your initial investment. On one hand, short sale losses are limitless. As an example, picture yourself buying a share of $50, then, its value increased by 600 per cent to $300. You will then buy back the shares, returning them to $300, and lose 600 per cent of your capital.

Be cautious when betting against a stock

No matter how dire a company’s prospects may be, there are several events that change its circumstances and consequently cause its stock to rally. Sometimes, no matter how much research you do or whatever expert opinion you received to lead you to short a stock, any number of events could trigger a share price surge.

Take for example what happened to GameStop. 

The shares of the American video game retailer were heavily shorted by hedge funds, with approximately 140 per cent of its public float being sold short. Early in 2021, users of Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum triggered a short squeeze in GameStop’s stock, causing it to surge to record-breaking levels to reach an unprecedented high of US$500 per share on 28 January 2021, almost 30 times the $17.25 valuation at the start of month. Losses on the short positions in the stock were estimated to billions of dollars. 

According to the New York Times, the viability of short selling as an investment strategy has also been called in question as a result of the GameStop short squeeze.

Additionally, you must remember that the stock market is volatile and speculative by nature. This means having a precise prediction of a stock’s movement is almost impossible. For instance, in the latest update in the GameStop saga, the company’s stock plummeted to a seven-week low after a disappointing earnings call. The decline follows a recent rally in the stock a week prior.

Meeting margin calls

Shorting is known as margin trading. This means that when short selling, you must open a margin account that enables you to borrow money from a brokerage firm using your investment as collateral. This will be used to cover a portion of your potential losses. You are required to maintain a certain equity percentage in your account. This amount varies, but if your account slips below the minimum, you will be subject to a margin call and you will be forced to put in more cash or liquidate your position. 

Time works against short-sellers

There is no time limit how long you can hold a short position on a certain stock. But it doesn’t mean you should. As mentioned, stocks are usually purchased using margin for at least part of the position, called margin loans. These come with interest charges, and you will have to keep paying them as long as you hold the stock. The interest charged can be viewed as a negative dividend and will be a regular reduction in your equity in the position. This means that the longer you hold on a stock and owe dividends, the lower your profits are going to be.   

Conclusion

Investing in stocks in the traditional way is risky enough. Short selling should be left to investors who have advanced knowledge and experience with stock trading and large portfolios that can easily shake off sudden and unexpected losses.

If you are a beginner investor, it’s also advised not to be easily swept up in by stock frenzies you see in the sharemarket. In his observation of the GameStop saga, Nigel Green, the chief executive and founder of deVere Group, warned to be wary of stock market fads. He warned that by being unaware of the high level of risk involved in these social media-led activist investment campaigns, people are playing a potentially very costly game.

“Extreme caution should be exercised before joining stock frenzies of this nature. The valuations can be expected to be wild – in both directions – and there’s a legitimate risk that novice investors could face a financial hit,” Mr Green advised.

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Short selling stocks may sound like a good investment strategy when you’re after quick and big returns, but is it worth the risk? Here’s a rundown of why shorting stocks may not be a sound stock trading strategy. 

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