Stock market

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The uniqueness of the Australian equities market is providing fund managers with an opportunity to essentially beat the market, new research has revealed.

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A study released by UBS has revealed the uniqueness of the Australian market compared with the world, which opens plentiful opportunities for investors to exploit it.

According to UBS, the Australian market is highly concentrated, with large financials and resources companies making up almost half of the large cap index. And while these companies are large today, over the last 20 years, equity funds have outperformed their benchmark.

Comparing this to the Small Ordinaries index, the make-up of the index is fairly similar, admittedly with less sector concentration.

However, in the small part of the market, consumer discretionary plays a larger role as does the IT sector.

Despite at times being a contentious issue, Australia’s unique market make-up, its market oligopoly premiums and generous dividend systems, and its bias around December are creating unique opportunities for managers to get ahead.

In fact, UBS’s research showed that whether or not they are taking advantage of the market, active fund managers in Australia have a proven track record over the last two decades.

“Over the past 20 years, equity funds have outperformed their benchmark, with large cap managers on average outperforming their benchmark by 1.5 per cent before fees, while small cap managers have outperformed by 6.5 per cent before fees on average,” UBS analyst James Cameron said.

And while inventors do not necessarily need to exploit these market anomalies, UBS noted understanding the market can be an advantage.

“These effects are persistent, so they can be exploited systematically. However, at the very least, investors should be aware of them, as there is no point trying to swim against the current,” Mr Cameron said.

The Australian market provides active managers with opportunities to beat the market, but what are these opportunities?

Franking: Franking is a system of dividend imputation which eliminates double taxation of dividends. The net effect is that companies that pay out franked dividends outperform the market.

Dividend run-up: As income and “franking” are such important parts of the Australian market, there is a preference to invest in companies that pay out profits to shareholders. This can cause companies that pay dividends to outperform into the ex-date by around 1.3 per cent. This can be meaningfully higher in sectors with high levels of franking.

Dividend drop-off: Following a dividend payment, share prices can drop off by less than their dividend amount on the ex-date. However, there are some interesting implications for franked dividend-paying stocks when including the following trading day into the analysis.

Seasonality: There are a number of seasonal effects within the Australian market including the tax year-end effect, the reporting season premium and the Santa Claus rally.

Oligopoly premium: UBS has found evidence that suggests industry groups that aren’t oligopolies tend to outperform. The oligopoly effect explains that in sectors dominated by oligopolies, large companies outperform small companies, and that in sectors not dominated by oligopolies, there is a small cap premium.

Index effects: There are significant inclusion/deletion effects in the Australian market, which UBS suggests is a function of the ownership structure of the Australian market. These effects are fairly persistent and, as a consequence, investors in the Australian market should be aware of their existence and the impact they might have on their portfolios.

Conclusion

“Australian active managers have performed well over the past 20 years. When we decompose returns, we typically think about returns being driven by beta, macro factors, sectors, styles (or quant factors) and idiosyncratic risk,” Mr Cameron said.

As a final note, he added that it’s “critical for active managers to be aware of these structural and behavioural effects, as investing against them can be like swimming against the current”.

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The uniqueness of the Australian equities market is providing fund managers with an opportunity to essentially beat the market, new research has revealed.

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ASIC has expressed concern that inexperienced or uninformed investors are putting their capital at unnecessary risk when tempted into the market by questionable marketing strategies from market promoters.

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In an interview with ABC Melbourne Drive, ASIC COO Warren Day revealed how these strategies are designed to part investors with their money, without giving enough consideration to risks involved.

Mr Day said that these strategies were particularly targeted at young investors or those getting into the market for the first time, encouraged by promises of making high returns.

The first strategy he detailed was “pumping and dumping”, which is an illegal market practice.

“This occurs where a promoter buys shares in a company and then starts an organised program of increasing (or ‘pumping up’) the share price,” Mr Day said.

“They do this by using social media and online forums to create a sense of excitement in a stock or spread false news about the company’s prospects.

“If you have bought just before the promoters sells out, you can lose a lot of money very quickly.”

Earlier this year, ASIC reported they had received an increased number of reports from consumers who lost money investing in the market after responding to fake news articles.

According to Mr Day, the best way an investor can protect themselves from such scams is to do adequate, independent research on any company one may invest in.

“Protect yourself — don’t believe the hype! Do your research and look at company fundamentals to see if price rises are justified before you invest your money,” he said.

Mr Day noted there were legal practices of concern as well. One such strategy was the “gamification” of trading, designed to get people trading more frequently and with less thought.

“It has never been easier to buy shares; companies are spending lots of money to develop easy-to-use apps and minimise the number of clicks you need to buy or sell securities,” he said.

“They are also adding in features to get you addicted to their app. Many of these are copied from the gambling industry to get you to invest more and more often.

“Academic research has shown that the more frequently you trade, the more likely you are to mistime the market and lose money.”

Macquarie University’s Dr Rowan Tulloch previously spoke with nestegg on this phenomenon, arguing that it can be a net positive for investors if implemented correctly.

“Gamified finance apps can be beneficial for investors. Done well, it is about effectively giving investors information about what is happening in the sharemarket in an easily understood and followed way,” he said.

“The risk of gamified investment apps is that the immediacy they offer means that investors will not always be as diligent in their research into the companies they are investing in.”

To avoid these risks, Mr Day said that investors should set their own limits on how much they want to trade, based on their own personal circumstances. He implored anyone who thought they may be addicted to get professional help.

“To protect yourself, set limits on how much you want to invest or how often you want to trade,” he continued.

“Turn off notifications to reduce the number of messages you receive. If you believe you are addicted, consider contacting gambling help services.”

Mr Day also expressed concern about “copy trading”, a practice that allows investors to mimic the trades of more experienced investors.

By doing this, an investor loses control of what they are investing in. Money may be going into products with a higher risk threshold than than the investor may be prepared for.

Again, Mr Day said investors should inform themselves on the products their money is going into.

He said: “Make sure you understand how any product you are investing in works.

“Understand what it can invest in, what control you have and how much money you could potentially lose. Set limits and take care.”

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ASIC has expressed concern that inexperienced or uninformed investors are putting their capital at unnecessary risk when tempted into the market by questionable marketing strategies from market promoters.

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" ["alias"]=> string(31) "how-do-you-choose-the-best-etfs" ["introtext"]=> string(339) "

In recent years, exchange-traded funds have become an increasingly popular option among Aussie investors. 

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(11002) "

Investment Trends and Betashares said the number of advisers using ETFs has doubled over the last decade. With 59 per cent of Australian financial advisers already using ETFs in client portfolios, they suggest that this number could rise to as high as 75 per cent by the end of 2021.

“With the wide selection of ETFs now available on the ASX, it’s easier than ever for ETFs to access a range of asset classes, sectors, regions and themes in a convenient, cost-effective way,” said BetaShares CEO Alex Vynokur.

The ASX Australian Investor Study 2020 showed that 45 per cent of investors aged 18-24 are also looking to invest in ETFs in the next 12 months, indicating that ETFs are moving from novel to normal for Australian investors.

With so many options available in all shapes and sizes, finding the right ETFs to invest in can feel like a difficult choice to make. Here are some suggestions on what you should consider when choosing ETFs. 

1. Personal investment goals

Firstly, the right ETFs will depend on your investment strategy and financial goals. 

Investing in ETFs is a personal affair; your portfolio asset allocation plan, your goals and time frame will play a significant role in determining the ETF you choose. 

Your risk appetite and financial goals will also help narrow your choices.

For example, if you are just starting to invest and unsure where to start, a diversified ETF that provides exposure to a range of asset classes, including equity, fixed income and cash can be a good stepping stone for you, as it allows for broad diversification.

But if you’re looking for higher returns, your ETF options can greatly differ. Active ETFs, which are also called exchange-traded managed funds (ETMFs), aim to outperform the market or a specific index. While they offer the potential for higher returns, there is a higher level of risk attached. 

Recently, there has also been a rise in ethical investing as more investors seek to express their values and priorities through the companies they support and invest in.

Figures released by BetaShares showed that Australia’s ETF industry has now passed $100 billion in funds under management for the first time in history, with social issues likely to push its strong growth into the future.

2. Diversification 

Diversification is an important consideration for any investor. By not putting all your eggs in one basket, you can lower your risk of losses. 

One of the major advantages of investing in ETFs is that it is considered to be low-risk because they are low-cost and hold a basket of stocks and other securities, increasing diversification. It also gives you the ability to invest broadly across different firms, industries and even countries. 

However, there are some ETFs that are more diverse than others. Before choosing an ETF, it’s advisable to look at specifically what the fund is tracking and how the fund is created. 

For example, investing in an ETF that tracks the ASX 200 will likely be weighted heavily in the financials and materials sectors.  

Meanwhile, tracking funds that target individual sectors are inherently a little less diversified. If you’re investing in one of these ETFs, you may want to choose one that provides exposure to a variety of industries across a range of international markets.

You’ll also need to consider your current investment portfolio when choosing an ETF. If all of your money is currently invested in the Australian stock market, you may want to look out for an ETF that provides exposure to international markets or other asset classes.

Make sure to do your research and check the fund manager’s breakdown of the ETF’s holdings so you know specifically where you’ll be investing your money.

3. Liquidity

Another factor to consider when making your choices is liquidity. This refers to how easily you can buy and sell your assets and how accessible your fund is. 

Because ETFs are traded on the stock market,  they are typically perceived as a high-liquid asset. However, it does depend on the fund itself.

For liquidity, the size of the ETF does matter. ETFs with more funds under management and larger daily trading volumes will typically be easier to buy and sell quickly and efficiently. If there is high trading volume, there will be more buyers in the market when it comes time to sell, and there are more sellers in the market if you are looking to buy. 

Larger funds can also take advantage of economies of scale, allowing them to charge a lower management fee. 

However, remember that size matters only when talking about liquidity. A bigger fund size does not equal outperformance in terms of investor returns.

Depending on your investment strategy, the ability to buy and sell easily can be important and something to consider when choosing an ETF.

4. Your provider or fund manager

Apart from the market being driven by different economic, political and financial factors, the performance of an ETF can also depend on how it is managed. 

Make sure to invest with a reputable fund manager that is experienced and has a track record of delivering index performance. 

Ask the following questions when choosing. Is the fund manager a reputable provider with a long history in the industry? How long have they been managing ETFs and what kind of track record do they have?

When choosing ETFs, do your own little investigation and find out what each provider’s investment strategies and principles are and what objectives they prioritise when offering a financial product or service. 

An ETF manager or provider needs to have a disciplined approach to portfolio management to ensure long-term return. Preferably, they should also have the capacity to have dedicated risk, research and investment teams.

5. Fees and costs 

Costs are one of the most straightforward ways to compare ETFs, and it’s also a major factor for most investors. While ETFs are often billed as a low-cost option, they are not without fees, and some funds are more expensive than others. 

Every time you buy and sell ETF shares or units, you have to pay a brokerage fee. Another cost that you may incur when buying or selling an ETF is known as the ‘bid/ask’ spread. This is the difference between the highest price that a buyer is willing to pay for units in an ETF, and the lowest price that a seller is willing to part with them for.

The ‘bid/ask’ spread is determined by market liquidity and what’s going on in the market at any given time; the less investor demand, the wider the spread.

There is also an annual management fee, which varies across the board depending on the provider, the market and sector, as well as the index being tracked. 

Take note that a lower management fee doesn’t necessarily mean that one fund is better performing than another. However, even a slightly lower fee can make a big difference to your overall returns. 

Fee details can usually be found in the ETF’s product disclosure statement (PDS) and fund fact sheets, which will also show information on the index, distributions and associated risks. Make sure to check the PDS and the terms and conditions before you invest. 

6. Past performance 

Research the track record of a fund to learn the kind of returns it has delivered to investors in the prior years.   

But as with any investment, note that past performance is not a guarantee of how it will perform in the future. If a fund outperformed others in the last five years, it does not mean it will give you the same level of returns in the following years. 

7. Don’t trade the trends

Niche or thematic ETFs constructed around a specific subject matter (e.g. robotics, precious metals or cryptocurrency) have had their time under the financial market spotlight in the last couple of months.

And while these ETFs are generally easy to relate to, understand and invest in, these may not stand the test of time once the trend begins to fade or suffer dramatic bouts of volatility that will test your patience.

Additionally, because of their new and largely untested nature, it is hard to evaluate liquidity and how accessible it is to trade during periods of volatility. This also equates to higher risks. 

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In recent years, exchange-traded funds have become an increasingly popular option among Aussie investors. 

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Despite COVID-19 leaving individuals and businesses to face an uncertain future, retail investors’ appetites for shares have increased throughout the pandemic, a new report has found.

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Research released by Calastone, which builds on investor surveys conducted before and during the pandemic has shown that investors around the world are increasing their exposures despite an uncertain future.

Overall, comparison of the 2021 and 2020 results revealed a marked increase in investment appetite and activity as a direct result of COVID-19.

Although 75 per cent of Millennials surveyed globally said they had invested or would invest soon, only 7 per cent have actually made the move.

Instead, the older generations are leading the charge, with 52 per cent of Generation X admitting they have made an investment in light of COVID-19, a rise of 18 per cent since 2020.

Baby Boomers followed, showing an 11 per cent rise in active investments in light of the pandemic. The lift for Millennials was less pronounced at 7 per cent.

“Calastone’s research shows that COVID-19 and its implications for people and markets have continued to be a tailwind for investment in managed funds,” Calastone head of Australia and New Zealand Ross Fox said.

Driving the market change

According to the results, investors are actually embracing the uncertainty and volatility that comes with a distorted market.

Calastone said that a good deal of the shift in investor behaviour reflects a mix of pent-up demand, growing confidence in the economic outlook and an increased appreciation of financial security.

Moreover, Calastone revealed that 32 percent of participants surveyed from the UK, US, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Germany are more likely to invest in light of the current COVID-19 situation, and 42 percent have already done so as a direct consequence of the virus.

“Investors adopting a more proactive and opportunistic approach is also evident in the flow of funds that we continue to see across our network, with $10.2 billion flowing into Australian-based managed funds this year,” Calastone’s head of Australia and New Zealand Ross Fox said.

Apprehension remains

While many investors are taking the leap, anxiety still remains a strong factor as the world grapples with the pandemic.

Levels of anxiety have abated for Australian and New Zealand investors, though they are still high; 66 per cent of Australians and 62 per cent of New Zealanders said COVID-19 has made them more worried about their financial future, down respectively from 72 and 64 per cent in 2020.

“While Australia currently feels the weight of COVID while other parts of the world appear to be recovering from the pandemic, rising levels of local engagement, ease of investing and product knowledge is a testament to the efforts of fund managers and distributors who have kept investors well informed and engaged throughout the last 18 months,” Mr Fox concluded.

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Retail investors that have been advocating for sustainable and ESG investing are hoping a new report released by the United Nations will serve as a wake-up call to the financial industry and governments to act on climate change.

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On Monday, one of the most comprehensive climate reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released, detailing that the Earth is just 10 years away from hitting the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold of warming in a single year.

Labelled a “code red for humanity” by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, the report explained that the globe is already 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer, with Australia alone having reached 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperature levels (1850-1900).

Responding to the shocking findings, the CEO of the Investor Group on Climate Change (IGCC) Rebecca Mikula-Wright highlighted the important role investors play in the transition to net zero, and flagged that a number of investors are already aligning their wallets with their values.

“This is becoming mainstream investor practice and helping shift capital flows to assets that have better climate risk profiles and are consistent with the Paris Agreement goals,” Ms Mikula-Wright said.

“In turn, and to remain competitive, many large Australian companies have also committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, and investors are now beginning to engage with them about developing detailed transition plans and integrate climate goals into capex decisions,” she told nestegg.

According to Ms Mikula-Wright, businesses in Australia will be forced to act on climate issues or risk Australian capital being sent overseas, as investors look for low climate risk opportunities.

She advised companies to follow the Climate Action 100+ approach, which sets out a series of benchmarks, helping guide companies towards managing their climate risk.

“These include setting Paris-aligned emissions reductions goals, making adequate and consistent climate risk disclosures and allocating sufficient capex aligned to their transition goals, among many other steps,” Ms Mikula-Wright explained.

While noting the critical role capital and investments will make in transitioning to a net zero world, Ms Mikula-Wright said partnerships between private capital, the public sector and institutional investors are key to moving forward.

“Investors recognise this, and while that shouldn’t stop them from taking their own steps to address climate risk, it is imperative they make their voice heard in policy discussions on climate change and energy,” the CEO continued.

“For example, 457 global investors representing US$41 trillion have joined the Global Investor Statement calling on governments to up their climate ambitions and implement meaningful policies.

“In Australia, 20 investors and banks, with $910 billion in assets under management, are supporting deeper emissions reductions for the nation by the end of the decade through Climate League 2030.”

This is despite Australia’s own Prime Minister Scott Morrison dismissing Mr Guterres’ desperate plea and reiterating that Australia would not commit to a target of net zero emissions by 2050.

Instead, the PM rehashed old arguments and his trust in technology.

“I won’t be signing a blank cheque on behalf of Australians to targets without plans,” he said.

While cautioning that Australia lags behind the rest of the world, Ms Mikula-Wright said she believes the government too will be forced to act.

“If the Australian government wants to remain competitive in global capital markets, it will need to adopt stronger 2030 targets and establish policies now to ensure an orderly transition to net zero emissions by 2050,” she opined.

However, the CEO opines that this transition would benefit the country, stating “credible 2030 targets and an orderly transition to net zero emissions in Australia would unlock around $63 billion in fresh investment opportunities to 2025,” Ms Mikula-Wright concluded.

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Central banks around the world are largely tipped to increase interest rates over the medium term due to inflationary pressures, with investors urged to look at the upcoming growth cycles that will emerge post-COVID-19.

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Warren Buffett famously said when rates are zero, all shares look cheap.

And while a recent eToro study showed investors fear inflation’s impact on their portfolio more than anything else, a recent webinar hosted by Antipodes founder and lead portfolio manager Jacob Mitchell suggested a lift in inflation could actually birth plentiful opportunities for investors.

In fact, Mr Mitchell described a gentle turning point to the economy, as the governments’ reduced support was offset by greater consumer spending brought on by lockdowns and an increase in saving rates.

“We think inevitably the cycle must moderate, and while I think going into next year the excess growth [in the economy] will slow, the excess savings do give protections to a hard landing,” he explained.

While inflation expectations moving forward have normalised, Mr Mitchell pointed out that structural shifts in the world including the rising cost of China’s manufacturing and an ageing population, or a reduction in people in the workforce, are two likely reasons inflation will pick up worldwide.

But it is the way the markets respond to these inflationary pressures that will largely shape what happens next.

Mr Mitchell believes “we are in good shape for an ongoing rotation in the market out of very high multiple stocks into lower multiple stocks”.

“While we don’t think it will be smooth, we ultimately think it will happen,” he said.

Looking forward, the investor said new emerging investment cycles will be the main driving force behind various stock options.

“We see three areas where both the government and businesses are spending money. The key one, predominantly in Europe and China, is the commitment to decarbonisation; that will be a super cycle in investment,” he continued.

“Cyclical that are transitioning to secular growth, these are the companies that are going to benefit from emerging investment cycles.”

The investor also highlighted the ongoing investment cycles around cloud computing, 5G and the internet of things as tailwinds for investors.

Moreover, he believes investment cycles linked to social infrastructure will emerge, such as upgrades to the healthcare sector after weaknesses were identified due to COVID-19.

Regions or countries around the world that can kickstart this investment cycle include Asia and Europe, with Mr Mitchell confident they will provide particular opportunities for investors moving forward.

“Interesting enough, that is also the part of the world that is trading at a record discount compared with the US,” he said.

The investor also pointed to companies that are “resilient cyclicals with pricing power” — companies that have benefited from reopening.

“As you know, reopening has come in different forms and different speeds around the world, led arguably by the US, where consumption in the services sector has recovered strongly,” Mr Mitchell said.

“We think in the US there will be ongoing good growth in any housing-related parts in the consumption mix.”

Additionally, supply issues and pent-up demand should act as a tailwind for the automotive industry, Mr Mitchell said.

But he has high hopes for the financial sector, too, noting it has also been “a good way to play reopening”, although highlighted the strength of European and Asian shares over the US.

Finally, Mr Mitchell pointed to high-growth stocks that are on low multiples relative to that growth.

“In the case of Facebook and Microsoft, they have certainly done well during COVID but have come out of COVID in pretty good shape,” he said.

“The market, I think, has been slow to recognise the long run of growth these companies have ahead.”

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Central banks around the world are largely tipped to increase interest rates over the medium term due to inflationary pressures, with investors urged to look at the upcoming growth cycles that will emerge post-COVID-19.

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