Property

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In 2026, Australian property success will be won by investors who privilege resilience over velocity. The market is fragmenting by suburb and asset type, financing conditions remain tight, and regulatory expectations on data use and governance are rising. Our analysis applies risk frameworks and fresh research to show why a “go-slow, think-deep” approach can outperform. The playbook: focus on risk-adjusted cash flow, disciplined use of analytics, and micro-market selectivity.

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Key implication: In a year defined by uneven demand and uncertain money markets, the investors who outperform will trade speed for discipline—pursuing risk-adjusted cash flows, robust governance, and micro-market precision rather than chasing headline growth.

Market context: Divergence rules, cycles shorten

Australia’s property cycle is decoupling by location and product. Late-2024 data on Sydney’s pockets of outperformance pointed to continued strength in selected suburbs over the following six months, even as the broader city cooled. That pattern—micro strength amid macro moderation—has become the rule rather than the exception. Long-term demographic currents reinforce this patchwork: the 2023 Intergenerational Report highlights sustained population growth and ageing as structural forces shaping housing demand over coming decades. Read: blanket national calls no longer work; investors need suburb-level theses anchored to real demand drivers—proximity to employment, infrastructure, and services aligned to an ageing population.

The practical translation is a shift from “market timing” to “market selection”. Rather than sprinting to buy into a rising tide, 2026 winners will underwrite postcode-by-postcode, building a risk buffer for stagnation in adjacent areas.

Business impact: Rethink ROI in risk-adjusted terms

In an environment where financing costs can move faster than rents, speed magnifies errors. A more durable metric is risk-adjusted return on equity (ROE) anchored to cash flow. Sensible conditions for 2026 acquisitions include: stress-testing debt service at higher-for-longer rates; targeting interest coverage of at least 2x on base case rents; and embedding 10–15 per cent capex contingencies for refurbishment or compliance upgrades. These parameters shift the focus from nominal gains to durability under downside scenarios.

Portfolio-level resilience trumps single-asset heroics. Allocators should cap concentration to any one micro-market, layer in staggered debt maturities, and prioritise assets with demonstrable pricing power (e.g., tight rental submarkets near transport hubs). Where the rental outlook is strong but cap rates are thin, consider staged entry—options, forward commitments with performance triggers, or club deals that allow rightsizing over time.

Competitive edge: Use AI—slowly, explainably, and with governance

Advanced analytics can sharpen site selection and tenant risk assessment, but the implementation trap is real. McKinsey’s 2025 research found that while almost all companies invest in AI, only a very small share consider themselves at maturity; the biggest barrier is scaling value, not building pilots. PwC’s 2026 outlook echoes that extracting transformative value from AI remains difficult despite rapid technology change. The lesson for property investors: adopt AI as a decision-support layer, not an autopilot.

Australia’s AI Ethics Principles (Department of Industry, Science and Resources) set clear expectations—human-centred values, transparency, fairness and accountability. The Australian Taxation Office’s 2024 governance commentary on general-purpose AI underscores the need for oversight where models influence decisions. Apply these to property by building an “explainable analytics stack”: document data lineage (including third-party demographic feeds), use interpretable models for pricing sensitivity, and maintain a human investment committee veto. This both improves decisions and mitigates reputational and regulatory exposure.

Technical deep dive: resist black-box enthusiasm. For example, blend feature-engineered regression for rent drivers with scenario-based Monte Carlo for vacancy and rate shocks. Keep model cards that state limitations and drift thresholds. Benchmark model recommendations against a rules-based baseline (e.g., income-to-rent ratios, transport proximity metrics) and investigate deltas before acting.

Financing and execution: Liquidity is available—but on new terms

The financing picture is nuanced. Non-bank lenders have periodically sharpened rates and terms to capture investor flows, but covenant scrutiny has tightened. The smart posture in 2026 is to negotiate flexibility over headline pricing: seek interest-only “ramp” periods tied to lease-up milestones; structure cash sweeps linked to coverage ratios; and lock in refurbishment lines at commitment to avoid subsequent pricing shocks. On development or heavy value-add, insist on pre-commitment thresholds before releasing full drawdowns.

Execution discipline matters as much as capital structure. Top operators run quarterly re-underwrites, test refinanceability six months ahead, and maintain vendor dialogues for off-market pipeline rather than competing in open auctions where “speed premiums” reappear. In other words, professionalise the investment process the way leading private equity real estate managers do—process is the edge.

Regulatory and social licence: Approvals risk is an economic variable

Social acceptance can be a hard constraint on project returns. Case studies from the Australian wind industry show that community engagement, perceived fairness, and transparent benefits-sharing materially affect acceptance trajectories. Property is no different: build-to-rent, medium-density infill, and greenfield projects can all be slowed—or supported—by local sentiment and planning decisions.

Treat approvals like you treat debt terms: quantify and manage them. Budget time buffers for consultation, publish clear impact assessments, and align with local infrastructure priorities. Where feasible, design community benefit mechanisms (public space improvements, local hiring commitments) that reduce friction and shorten time-to-cash-flow.

Outlook 2026: A deliberate roadmap

Plan in horizons. Near term (next 6–9 months): prioritise cash flow stability, refinance audits, and selective buys in submarkets already showing demand resilience, as signalled by late-2024 pockets of strength. Medium term (9–18 months): prepare to exploit episodic dislocations—distressed sales from over-levered owners; consider club structures to move when spreads appear. Long term (18 months+): position for demographic durability outlined in the Intergenerational Report—health-adjacent precincts, transit-rich nodes, and age-friendly amenities.

Finally, treat data as infrastructure. Australia’s competition watchdog notes that dominant platforms retain overwhelming share in general search—an indicator of how data gateways concentrate. For investors, that means differentiating with proprietary ground truth: on-the-street leasing intel, utility usage correlations, and real-time tenant inquiry data. Pair that with ethics-by-design and you will compound an informational edge without regulatory headaches.

The bottom line: 2026 is not a race to the fast bid. It’s a disciplined campaign for resilient returns—won by investors who underwrite deeply, govern their models, engage their communities, and buy only when the risk budget says “go”.

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In 2026, Australian property success will be won by investors who privilege resilience over velocity. The market is fragmenting by suburb and asset type, financing conditions remain tight, and regulatory expectations on data use and governance are rising. Our analysis applies risk frameworks and fresh research to show why a “go-slow, think-deep” approach can outperform. The playbook: focus on risk-adjusted cash flow, disciplined use of analytics, and micro-market selectivity.

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Lower-priced homes are appreciating faster as government support channels demand into the entry tier. For developers, lenders and marketers, this is not a blip—it’s a structural reweighting of demand around policy caps and eligibility rules. The winners will redesign product, rebalance capital and optimise acquisition to this new reality. Here’s the explainer and the playbook.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(8816) "

What it is: A demand concentrator at the low end

Australia’s first home buyer support architecture—federal and state—acts as a targeted demand catalyst for lower-priced dwellings. The national Home Guarantee Scheme (administered by NHFIC) enables eligible first home buyers to purchase with a small deposit (often as low as 5%) without lenders mortgage insurance, subject to regional price caps and income limits. States add fuel via grants and stamp duty concessions, typically concentrated under price thresholds. New industry reporting indicates that, since launch, this support has coincided with faster demand and price growth among lower-priced properties than in higher brackets, with the effect evident across most regions.

In practical terms, policy thresholds cluster buyer intent and borrowing capacity around sub-cap price points. As more qualified demand funnels into the entry segment, price performance skews to the lower quartile—today’s outperformance narrative.

Why now: Policy meets scarcity

Three forces are amplifying the effect:

• Policy concentration: Caps and eligibility rules focus demand in defined price bands, intensifying competition for qualifying dwellings.
• Supply constraints: A thinned construction pipeline and high build costs keep new affordable stock tight, especially in infill locations.
• Rental pressure: Tight rental markets encourage eligible renters to accelerate a move into ownership if they can tap a guarantee or concession.

The combined result is a K-shaped market, with the lower limb (entry-tier homes) pulling ahead on volumes and price momentum while premium tiers track a different cycle.

How it works: The microeconomics of caps and competition

Demand-side support without matching supply lifts the clearing price where supply is least elastic. Because eligibility is capped by property value, buyers cluster just under thresholds; sellers, builders and agents optimise to those points. Typical second-order effects:

• Cap anchoring: Listings bunch around price caps; vendors reprice to sit just below eligibility ceilings to maximise buyer pools.
• Time-on-market compression: Increased qualified demand reduces days-on-market in entry brackets relative to premium segments, reinforcing momentum.
• Financing reach: Lower deposit pathways increase effective purchasing power for eligible buyers, lifting bid density at auctions/private treaty in the entry band.

The outcome is textbook: price elasticity is lowest where stock is scarcest and incentives are largest, so prices in that segment move first and fastest.

Who it affects: Not just buyers and sellers

• Developers and builders: Product mix decisions (lot size, townhouse vs apartment, fit-out specifications) now orbit around hitting cap thresholds without eroding margin. Projects that can be value-engineered under cap lines enjoy deeper demand pools.
• Lenders: Guarantee-backed lending shifts risk profiles (higher loan-to-value ratios, concentrated at caps). Sensible portfolio limits, prudent serviceability overlays and post-settlement performance monitoring become critical.
• Agencies and portals: Marketing and conversion economics pivot to entry-tier buyers. Digital customer acquisition is decisive; notably the ACCC has observed that Google held nearly 94% share of general search in Australia as recently as August 2024, shaping cost-of-acquisition dynamics across property lead funnels.
• Institutional investors: Build-to-rent and affordable housing strategies can target the same price-sensitive customer base, but must avoid crowd-out of first home buyers or policy backlash.
• State and local government: Planning approvals and land release that actually deliver cap-eligible product will determine whether policy translates to ownership or merely capital gains.

Business impact and competitive advantage: Where margins migrate

For operators, the margin stack is moving. Several levers stand out:

• Cap-fit product design: Reconfigure unit mix and specifications to consistently land a meaningful share of stock under prevailing caps in target LGAs. The competitive edge is not just price—it’s repeatable cap compliance without quality dilution.
• Speed-to-market: Fast-tracking approvals and staged releases aligned with guarantee allocation cycles can capture peak demand windows.
• Digital acquisition: With search so concentrated, performance marketing and SEO for first home buyer intent terms (by suburb and cap) reduce cost-per-sale. Funnel analytics tied to eligibility screening (income, price, deposit) cut wastage.
• Partnership distribution: Align with mortgage brokers trained in guarantee pathways to raise conversion rates. Educate channels on documentation and timelines to avoid fall-throughs.
• Geo-selection: Focus land and infill acquisitions where local cap-to-median ratios are favourable, increasing the share of stock that qualifies without deep discounts.

Implementation reality: The risks behind the headline

Execution is not trivial:

• Cap cliff risk: Pricing near thresholds invites volatility; small valuation variances can disqualify buyers late in the process. Build buffers into pricing and offer pre-valuation guidance.
• Construction cost pressure: Achieving cap-fit while maintaining build quality requires disciplined value engineering and supplier agreements that hedge input price risk.
• Credit risk management: Higher LVRs elevate sensitivity to price corrections. Lenders should diversify exposure across regions and property types and monitor arrears behaviour in guarantee-backed cohorts.
• Marketing concentration risk: Over-reliance on a single digital channel can inflate acquisition costs. The ACCC’s observation on search dominance underscores the need for multi-channel strategies (partnerships, community outreach, creator content) to de-risk CAC.
• Technology opportunity vs capability gap: Australia’s AI ecosystem shows strength in adoption but a gap in commercialisation capability, according to recent ecosystem assessments. That’s a cue to deploy practical AI—lead scoring, fraud flags, eligibility pre-checks—without overbuilding platforms you can’t maintain.

Market context and case notes

The shift is visible nationwide in reporting that the lower-priced tier is outperforming on price and demand since the program’s inception. State concessions and grants vary, and advisory groups regularly update suburb-level eligibility guidance—an operational necessity for frontline teams. While each market differs, a repeatable pattern appears: the closer the local median is to the cap, the stronger the demand acceleration when support is available.

Illustrative example: A townhouse developer in an outer-ring metro recuts stage releases to reduce average internal area by a small margin, substitutes a mid-range appliance package, and secures supplier rebates—nudging end-prices just under the applicable cap. The change lifts enquiry volumes, shortens sales cycles, and widens the buyer funnel to include guarantee-backed borrowers—raising absorption without deep discounting.

What’s next: Policy durability, regional tilt and data to watch

Strategically, plan for three scenarios:

• Policy steady-state: Programs continue with minor cap adjustments. Expect sustained outperformance in entry tiers and a seller’s premium for cap-fit stock.
• Retarget and taper: Caps or eligibility tighten to temper price inflation risk. Developers should maintain optionality in product specs to reposition between cap-fit and mid-market.
• Supply-side focus: States push faster approvals and medium-density upzoning near transport. If realised, price pressure may ease in targeted corridors; the advantage shifts to speed and site control.

Data to track: the ratio of cap to suburb median, time-on-market differentials by price quartile, valuation shortfalls near caps, arrears in high-LVR cohorts, and digital CAC by channel. Watch regional markets too; where caps intersect favourably with local medians, the regional first-home segment can lead activity.

Bottom line: Demand has been structurally reweighted toward entry-level homes. Businesses that design for eligibility, de-risk execution and diversify acquisition will convert policy momentum into durable margin—and those that don’t will be bidding against a bigger, hungrier crowd.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2026-01-14 22:40:56" ["slug"]=> string(115) "19903:entry-level-property-is-winning-how-first-home-buyer-programs-are-reshaping-demand-pricing-power-and-strategy" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#10133 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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Lower-priced homes are appreciating faster as government support channels demand into the entry tier. For developers, lenders and marketers, this is not a blip—it’s a structural reweighting of demand around policy caps and eligibility rules. The winners will redesign product, rebalance capital and optimise acquisition to this new reality. Here’s the explainer and the playbook.

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Australia’s housing pipeline has thinned to a decade low, locking in a scarcity premium that narrows investor flexibility, compresses yields and extends hold periods. With only 172,000 dwellings completed in 2023 and policy constraints likely to persist through 2026, the market’s centre of gravity is shifting from quick capital gains to disciplined, operational value creation. Institutional capital will matter, but so will operational excellence—cost engineering, data-driven site selection and risk hedging. The investors who adapt their playbook now will own the next cycle’s upside.

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Key implication: A structurally undersupplied housing market is moving investor returns from momentum to micro-operations. Scarcity is supporting prices, but it is also compressing yields and removing optionality—forcing longer holds, higher execution risk and stricter underwriting. In other words: fewer ways out, more pressure to get the fundamentals right.

Market context: a thin pipeline and inelastic supply

Australia delivered 172,000 dwelling completions in 2023—its lowest annual tally in a decade (State of the Housing System 2024). Planning lag, builder capacity constraints and elevated input costs have combined to make supply notably inelastic. The 2025 State of the Housing System outlook anticipates constraints will continue to “limit new supply over the forecast period,” placing more weight on existing stock. With new housing unable to match demand momentum, competition intensifies for limited assets and prices drift upward despite affordability concerns.

Elevated construction costs and red tape, cited by market commentators, are not transient irritants—they are structural features shaping outcomes. Evidence from New South Wales policy reviews indicates that loosening restrictions in low-feasibility areas has minimal impact on supply, highlighting that feasibility and delivery capacity, not just zoning, govern outcomes (Review of housing supply challenges and policy options, 2024).

Business impact: unit economics under pressure

For investors, the supply squeeze creates a double bind. First, acquisition prices rise faster than rents in many submarkets, compressing net yields and cap-rate buffers. Second, limited new stock removes flexibility to reposition or exit quickly, lengthening average hold periods and raising exposure to interest-rate and policy cycles.

Cash flow is supported by tight vacancies, but risk asymmetry is increasing. Policy debate around tenant protections raises the spectre—if not the certainty—of mechanisms that cap rent growth. International evidence is clear: rent controls restrict revenue growth, lower ROI and reduce asset values by widening the bid-ask gap via cap-rate expansion. Even without formal controls, political pressure can slow rent increases, implying returns must be earned through operating excellence and cost discipline rather than pricing power alone.

On the development side, rising build costs and contractor insolvency risk push contingency budgets higher and erode project IRRs unless investors de-risk via fixed-price contracts (where available), modular approaches, or staged release strategies. Given higher debt costs, the capital stack skews towards more equity or alternative debt (mezzanine, construction finance), increasing required returns and governance rigour.

Competitive advantage: where alpha still lives

Amid scarcity, edge accrues to investors who can create supply or unlock hidden value. Three practical avenues stand out:

• Build-to-rent (BTR) and affordable partnerships: Australia’s research indicates very few listed vehicles have built meaningful BTR portfolios; yet the 2024/2025 housing reports argue that more institutional investment in affordable housing would expand options for tenants and add stock. Partnering with community housing providers can unlock land allocations and concessions, improving project feasibility while aligning with ESG mandates.
• Cost engineering and industrialised delivery: Offsite manufacturing, standardised designs and volume procurement can cut cost and time risk. Investors who secure reliable delivery partners and pre-commit supply chains can execute when rivals are stalled.
• Data-led micro-market selection: Granular analytics on income bands, household formation, transport nodes and rental stress can surface mispriced suburbs where rent-to-income ratios support sustainable rent growth without regulatory blowback.

Technical deep dive: using AI where it actually moves the needle

Australia’s AI ecosystem shows a commercialisation gap: strong research, patchier deployment (Australia’s artificial intelligence ecosystem: growth and opportunities, 2025). That matters because proptech wins will be about execution, not experimentation. The governance direction is also maturing; as the ATO frames it: “general purpose or strong AI — an AI system that can be used for a range of tasks” (AI in Australia Consultation interim response, 2024). For property investors, the practical stack should prioritise:

• Demand forecasting models that integrate approvals, completions, migration flows and rental listings to forecast submarket absorption and rent trajectories.
• Feasibility digital twins linking design options, cost curves and staging schedules to stress-test IRRs under shifting input prices and financing terms.
• Planning-risk classifiers trained on council decisions and conditions to estimate approval probability and time-to-permit, turning red tape into a quantifiable variable.

The aim is to convert uncertainty into priced risk, improving bid discipline and portfolio construction. Given Australia’s governance stance, investors should build model risk management into workflows (data lineage, bias checks, human-in-the-loop approvals) to avoid overconfident decisions based on sparse datasets.

Implementation reality: constraints you can manage, and those you can’t

Not all bottlenecks are solvable at the asset level. Capacity limits in planning departments, trade shortages and builder balance-sheet fragility are macro constraints. Still, investors can mitigate:

• Procurement strategy: lock in critical materials early; consider hedging for steel and timber exposure; use performance bonds with tier-1 and tier-2 builders to reduce counterparty risk.
• Capital stack optimisation: blend bank debt with alternative lenders to secure certainty of funding; scenario-plan refinance risk under higher-for-longer rates.
• Portfolio barbell: balance resilient, income-focused assets (essential worker catchments, transit-adjacent) with selective development or value-add bets where supply elasticity is genuinely constrained.
• Stakeholder engagement: co-develop with community housing providers or local councils to reduce opposition and accelerate approvals.

Policy watch and future outlook: three scenarios for 2025–2027

Base case: Supply remains tight as 2024–2025 approvals translate into subdued completions; prices and rents grind higher; yields remain compressed. Policy tweaks improve process efficiency at the margin but don’t unlock at-scale capacity.

Tight case: Construction insolvencies and financing constraints further depress completions; affordability deteriorates; political pressure leads to tougher rental regulation. Investor ROI tilts towards downside protection and operational alpha.

Reform case: Coordinated planning reform, targeted incentives and institutional capital scale BTR/affordable pipelines; NSW’s Housing 2041 agenda and similar state efforts streamline delivery. The 2025 housing report cautions co-operatives won’t deliver at meaningful scale immediately, but institutional partnerships could bend the curve.

Signals to track: monthly approvals, commencements-to-completions conversion rates, build cost indices, builder insolvency trends, and the policy trajectory on rental settings. If approvals bottom while cost indices stabilise, 2027 could mark the beginning of a more balanced pipeline.

Strategic playbook: act like an operator, not a passenger

For boards and investment committees, the message is clear: scarcity supports values but doesn’t guarantee returns. Outperformance will come from underwriting precision, disciplined procurement, and stakeholder partnerships that unlock supply advantages. In a market that no longer forgives sloppy execution, investor flexibility must be rebuilt—through capability.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2026-01-13 22:00:16" ["slug"]=> string(100) "19867:scarcity-premiums-squeezed-yields-australias-housing-bottleneck-is-rewriting-investor-strategy" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#10144 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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Australia’s housing pipeline has thinned to a decade low, locking in a scarcity premium that narrows investor flexibility, compresses yields and extends hold periods. With only 172,000 dwellings completed in 2023 and policy constraints likely to persist through 2026, the market’s centre of gravity is shifting from quick capital gains to disciplined, operational value creation. Institutional capital will matter, but so will operational excellence—cost engineering, data-driven site selection and risk hedging. The investors who adapt their playbook now will own the next cycle’s upside.

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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(117) "/invest-money/property/scarcity-premiums-squeezed-yields-australias-housing-bottleneck-is-rewriting-investor-strategy" ["image"]=> string(116) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1768866121/pexels-artbovich-8143668_k0cbs1.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(99) "Scarcity premiums, squeezed yields: Australia’s housing bottleneck is rewriting investor strategy" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#9647 (57) { ["id"]=> int(19843) ["title"]=> string(97) "Australia’s housing bottleneck isn’t a demand problem — it’s a construction maths problem" ["alias"]=> string(84) "australias-housing-bottleneck-isnt-a-demand-problem-its-a-construction-maths-problem" ["introtext"]=> string(553) "

The economics of building have broken for mainstream housing in Australia. Input costs, labour scarcity and approvals drag are collapsing project feasibility, tilting capital to luxury builds and shrinking the new‑home pipeline. This analysis unpacks the ROI stack behind the slowdown, the competitive dynamics reshaping who can still build, and the practical levers — from procurement to AI — that can bend the cost curve. Expect pressure to intensify through 2026 unless policy and industry execution shift in tandem.

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For all the focus on demand-side fixes, the decisive constraint in Australia’s housing market is on the supply side: projects simply don’t pencil out. As industry reporting highlights, developers are shelving mid-market apartments while high-end projects proceed, a signal of where margins survive. A 2025 economic briefing underscored the structural nature of the blockage: entrenched issues in construction are suppressing supply growth. With financing still tight and approvals sticky, the pipeline is thinning at the very moment population and rental demand remain robust.

The short answer: developers’ maths no longer works for mainstream housing

In feasibility terms, three forces have shifted at once: build costs, financing costs and time-to-completion. When materials and labour costs rise while debt becomes pricier and approvals stretch timelines, project internal rates of return (IRRs) are squeezed from all sides. Industry reporting has flagged first-home buyers stepping away from the apartment market and a tilt toward luxury builds — the latter can absorb inflation via higher presale prices; the former cannot.

This is not uniquely Australian. US new home sales softened in 2025 as higher borrowing costs curbed buyer capacity and developer appetite, even as rates eased from peaks. But Australia’s problem is sharper because supply was already undershooting household formation before the latest cost surge, and the construction sector must navigate both cyclical and structural frictions.

Market context: a pipeline under pressure

Signals from late 2024 to early 2025 are consistent: rising input costs and red tape continue to suppress housing delivery, slowing the flow of new dwellings that the country urgently needs. The result is textbook microeconomics — less supply meets steady or rising demand, pushing prices and rents higher and pushing would-be owners into longer tenancies.

Policy is nudging in the right direction but at limited scale. The Northern Australia Action Plan includes $88.8 million over three years from 2024–25 to grow the construction workforce and boost housing supply — helpful for capability, insufficient on its own to close the gap at national scale. Without faster approvals and lower build risk, new capital will not flood into mid-market projects.

The ROI stack: where feasibility breaks

Look at the developer’s value equation through a simple contribution model: revenue per square metre less all-in cost per square metre, adjusted for time and risk. Three breakpoints stand out:

- Cost base: Materials inflation and subbie rates have reset higher since 2022. Even if headline inflation moderates, construction costs tend to be sticky on the way down due to contracts, scarcity premiums and compliance requirements.

- Finance and pre-sales: Higher debt costs lift hurdle rates and amplify sensitivity to delays. Presales are harder to secure at price points the median buyer can afford, which pushes projects toward premium segments where buyers are less rate-sensitive.

- Time risk: Lengthy approvals and rework for compliance erode IRR. Every month added to the programme increases holding costs and exposes the project to price volatility.

In this environment, developers rationally triage: luxury towers, with larger per-unit gross margins, advance; mid-market projects stall; some builders pivot to non-residential or maintenance to survive. As one 2022 industry outlook presciently warned, rising costs would suppress build volumes — the 2025 evidence suggests that prediction largely landed.

Competitive dynamics: who can still win

Porter’s Five Forces reads differently in 2025–26. Supplier power has risen (labour, specialised trades, key materials), buyer power has weakened at the lower end (fewer viable projects, less choice), barriers to entry have increased (capital, compliance) and the threat of substitutes is shifting from traditional methods to industrialised construction.

- Scale developers and builders: Those with procurement muscle, diversified pipelines and in-house design/engineering can compress costs and time. They are better placed to lock in supply and hedge volatility.

- Patient capital: Super funds and build-to-rent sponsors with long-dated return horizons can underwrite delivery where merchant developers cannot. They monetise via yield rather than presales-driven margins.

- Luxury and niche segments: Premium projects clear the feasibility bar because buyers absorb a bigger share of cost inflation. This explains why upmarket builds remain in train while mainstream stock is deferred.

Implementation reality: de-risking delivery, not waiting for prices to fall

Executives should assume cost deflation will be slow and irregular. The actionable playbook focuses on risk transfer and productivity:

- Procurement and contracts: Move away from uncompensated fixed-price exposure on long programmes. Consider target cost plus gain-share, alliancing or early contractor involvement to surface buildability issues before they crystallise.

- Design for manufacturing and assembly (DfMA): Standardise components and adopt offsite fabrication to shorten critical paths and reduce site labour bottlenecks. Even partial modularisation (bathroom pods, facade systems) can shave weeks and contingency.

- Approvals acceleration: Partner early with councils and utilities; use digital submissions and parallel approvals to compress lead time. Delays are hidden cost multipliers; taking 10–15 percent out of programme duration often saves more than chasing 1–2 percent on materials.

- Capital structuring: Blend presales with institutional capital where possible; consider phased delivery to reduce working capital at risk. Where policy incentives exist, align projects to qualify.

Technology’s moment — if Australia can commercialise it

Construction tech will not solve cost inflation alone, but it can change the slope of the cost curve. Building information modelling (BIM) tied to 4D/5D scheduling enables clash detection and precise quantities, reducing rework and claims. Generative tools can optimise structural systems for material efficiency. Computer vision and IoT can tighten site productivity and safety. AI can automate take-offs, predict schedule risk and improve bid/no-bid decisions.

Yet Australia’s broader AI ecosystem has been characterised by an innovation-commercialisation gap, according to a 2025 landscape assessment. Governance maturity is growing — the Australian Government’s 2019 AI Ethics Principles and a 2024 consultation response signal a framework for responsible deployment — but uptake in tradable sectors lags. Translation: pilot more, operationalise faster. The edge will go to builders who embed data pipelines from design to handover and to councils that digitise approvals end-to-end.

Outlook to 2026: what to watch, what to do

Baseline: supply remains constrained through 2026, with pipeline growth capped by feasibility. Workforce initiatives and fee-free training help, but approvals friction and elevated input costs keep the brake on. Expect a continued bifurcation — premium and institutional projects proceed; mid-market stock remains scarce — keeping rents and entry-level prices under pressure.

Signals that would mark a turn: a measurable reduction in average approval times; evidence of cost stability in key inputs; broader adoption of risk-sharing contracts; and deployment of industrialised methods at meaningful scale. Without these, “more demand” policies will leak into prices, not new roofs.

What leaders should do now:

- Developers: Recut feasibilities with conservative contingencies; standardise designs; pre-qualify supply chains; and secure flexible financing structures.

- Builders: Invest in DfMA capabilities and site digitisation; renegotiate contract models that balance risk; and build a data backbone for predictive planning.

- Financiers: Back projects with demonstrable productivity uplifts and risk-sharing structures; tie capital to milestones and governance.

- Governments: Streamline approvals with digital portals; expand targeted workforce programmes; and calibrate incentives toward productivity-enhancing delivery models rather than pure demand stimulation.

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The economics of building have broken for mainstream housing in Australia. Input costs, labour scarcity and approvals drag are collapsing project feasibility, tilting capital to luxury builds and shrinking the new‑home pipeline. This analysis unpacks the ROI stack behind the slowdown, the competitive dynamics reshaping who can still build, and the practical levers — from procurement to AI — that can bend the cost curve. Expect pressure to intensify through 2026 unless policy and industry execution shift in tandem.

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A growing chorus of market practitioners is urging investors to pause portfolio expansion in 2026 as returns compress and policy settings tighten. The headline risk is less about price crashes and more about cash flow quality, debt serviceability and tax friction. For business leaders with property on the balance sheet — or capital earmarked for real assets — the smarter play may be portfolio optimisation, not accumulation. Here’s the strategic read on risk, opportunity and timing — and how to keep optionality for 2027–28.

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Key implication: For Australian investors, 2026 looks like a year to prune and position rather than plant. Yield compression, elevated holding costs and shifting tax settings are conspiring to make new property acquisitions work much harder to deliver acceptable risk-adjusted returns. The more competitive strategy is to defend cash flow, preserve liquidity and prepare to buy selectively when distress and price discovery present clearer entry points.

Market context: returns are narrowing, not vanishing

After two brisk years, investor conditions are softening. A property professional quoted by Smart Property Investment summed it up: “the real estate market is definitely softening – especially from an investment point of view.” The logic is straightforward. Debt costs remain high relative to rental income growth, meaning new purchases often dilute, rather than enhance, portfolio-level cash flow. While some capital city sub-markets show resilience, the broader investment case in 2026 hinges on the spread between net yields and funding costs — and on the quality and duration of tenant income.

Two dynamics matter. First, interest coverage. Even modestly higher-for-longer rates turn thin net yields into negative carry, especially for interest-only investor loans rolling to principal-and-interest or refinancing under tighter serviceability assumptions. Second, cap-rate risk. If policy rates stay elevated into late 2026, further cap-rate decompression can erode mark-to-market values, pressuring loan-to-value (LVR) headroom and covenants for leveraged owners.

Business impact: cash flow resilience beats headline growth

For businesses with owned premises or investment assets, the operational P&L effect is already visible. Higher interest expense and rising non-discretionary outgoings (insurance, maintenance, compliance) are absorbing rent increases. The result: lower free cash flow and reduced flexibility for core business investment.

A pragmatic CFO lens focuses on three ratios:

• Debt service coverage ratio (DSCR): Stress test DSCR for rate scenarios through 2027, factoring potential vacancy and incentive drift. A DSCR buffer of 1.5x+ is a realistic hurdle in a volatile leasing market.
• Interest coverage ratio (ICR): Many lenders assess serviceability with a buffer above actual rates. Even at unchanged policy settings, this suppresses borrowing capacity and raises refinancing risk.
• Loan-to-value (LVR) headroom: Modest valuation declines can force equity top-ups. Maintain contingency liquidity to avoid forced sales.

Portfolio growth that compromises these thresholds is value-destructive. Expansion should be justified by durable tenant covenants, superior location fundamentals and clear total-return pathways, not just by nominal price appreciation expectations.

Policy and tax: prudential and super changes raise friction

Australian prudential settings continue to prioritise system resilience. APRA’s 2024–25 Corporate Plan flags a multi-year focus on stability and stress testing through to 2026, which in practice sustains conservative serviceability buffers and lender risk appetites. Investors should assume credit will reward quality (income, security, leverage discipline) and penalise marginal deals.

Tax settings also matter. Proposals affecting high-balance superannuation accounts from the 2025–26 year, widely reported in 2025 coverage, include mechanisms that capture changes in asset values for those with balances above a threshold. The Australian Taxation Office has indicated it will track gains and losses across periods, making asset valuation and timing consequential. For SMSFs holding direct property, this introduces valuation volatility risk into after-tax returns. The takeaway: structure and timing are as important as asset selection.

Competitive advantage: play defence now to play offence later

Early movers will exploit three edges:

• Liquidity optionality: In a thinning buyer pool, cash buyers and pre-approved borrowers can dictate terms — from price to settlement flexibility and vendor finance structures — particularly in late 2026 when refinancing cliffs surface.
• Operational alpha: Lift net operating income (NOI) without new acquisitions. Re-cut leases to longer tenures with CPI-linked escalations where feasible, reduce incentives, and invest in energy efficiency to lower opex — improving both cash flow and valuation multiples.
• Market micro-targeting: Smart Property Investment’s coverage suggests capital-city resilience outpacing some regional markets. Focus research on sub-markets with tight vacancy, strong employment nodes and infrastructure tailwinds; avoid broad-brush bets.

Implementation reality: a 90-day portfolio triage

Rather than chase another asset, execute a disciplined triage:

• Re-underwrite every asset at current cap rates, realistic incentives and conservative re-leasing assumptions. If a property would not meet investment hurdles today, it’s a candidate for divestment or deep value-add.
• Lock in debt certainty where it is accretive. Stagger maturities, examine partial hedges, and negotiate covenant headroom before it’s needed.
• Tenant quality first: Prioritise creditworthy, long-duration tenants. Vacancy in 2026 is costlier than usual given borrowing costs and fit-out incentives.
• Tax and structure review: For SMSF or trust-held assets, model after-tax outcomes under 2025–26 super rules and state land tax changes. Annual independent valuations may become a necessity, not a nice-to-have.

Capital allocation: consider AI productivity before illiquid real assets

There’s a non-obvious competitor to property expansion in 2026: operational technology that boosts productivity. McKinsey’s 2025 analysis on AI in the workplace notes companies are pressing ahead with adoption but face readiness gaps — a reminder that the bottleneck isn’t the tools, it’s execution. In Australia, government work on AI governance (including the 2019 AI Ethics Principles and 2024 consultation response) and a 2025 review of the local AI ecosystem highlight a commercialisation gap: many firms adopt, fewer turn it into measurable bottom-line gains.

For mid-market businesses weighing a property purchase against digital investment, the ROI calculus is shifting. Well-targeted AI and automation projects can convert to cost-out and revenue enablement within 12–18 months, with far less balance sheet drag and greater reversibility than a leveraged acquisition. The strategic move in 2026 may be to channel marginal dollars into digitising operations, data foundations and applied AI — and reserve real-asset expansion for when pricing and credit conditions improve.

Outlook 2026–2028: prepare for selective dislocation

Base case: 2026 is a grind rather than a crash. Price discovery continues, volumes stay subdued, and capital remains choosy. Resilience is strongest in prime, supply-constrained urban locations; weaker in secondary assets with capex overhangs. External macro signals — from China’s growth trajectory to global rate paths — will set the tone, but the local constraint is financing cost relative to income growth.

Opportunity emerges as refinancing pressure accumulates and as vendors accept new clearing prices. The investors who outperform will have done the unglamorous work in 2026: fixing cash flow, securing debt, sharpening underwriting, and building relationships for off-market flow. In short, think twice about expansion now to be ready to think decisively later.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2026-01-12 05:00:40" ["slug"]=> string(91) "19846:2026-property-expansion-why-disciplined-investors-will-wait-and-where-to-play-offence" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#10166 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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A growing chorus of market practitioners is urging investors to pause portfolio expansion in 2026 as returns compress and policy settings tighten. The headline risk is less about price crashes and more about cash flow quality, debt serviceability and tax friction. For business leaders with property on the balance sheet — or capital earmarked for real assets — the smarter play may be portfolio optimisation, not accumulation. Here’s the strategic read on risk, opportunity and timing — and how to keep optionality for 2027–28.

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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(108) "/invest-money/property/2026-property-expansion-why-disciplined-investors-will-wait-and-where-to-play-offence" ["image"]=> string(127) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1768258447/pexels-sevenstormphotography-418323_kzkeon.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(90) "2026 property expansion? Why disciplined investors will wait — and where to play offence" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#9645 (57) { ["id"]=> int(19789) ["title"]=> string(101) "Cost, red tape and capital: why Australia’s housing pipeline is shrinking — and how to rebuild it" ["alias"]=> string(92) "cost-red-tape-and-capital-why-australias-housing-pipeline-is-shrinking-and-how-to-rebuild-it" ["introtext"]=> string(554) "

Australia’s housing pipeline is being choked by a toxic mix of escalating input costs, regulatory drag and tighter finance. The result: mid-market projects stall while luxury builds proceed, pushing prices higher and locking more renters out. This is no longer a cyclical blip; it’s a structural productivity and cost-of-capital problem with 2026 shaping up as another constrained year. Business leaders that can compress cost, cycle time and risk will capture share — particularly in build-to-rent and premium segments.

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Here’s the uncomfortable truth: in today’s cost and capital environment, only projects with thick margins or advantaged finance are viable. That is why the entry-level apartment buyer is disappearing from developer feasibilities while premium builds still break ground. As Real Estate Business reported, “we’re seeing an exodus of first-time buyers from the apartment market. The only projects still proceeding are luxury builds.” The economics explain the pipeline.

Cost stack reality: a PESTLE view of why feasibilities no longer pencil

Developers’ models face simultaneous shocks across the PESTLE spectrum:

- Political/regulatory: Protracted approvals and compliance layers add months and carrying costs. Industry commentary consistently flags “red tape” as a time and cost multiplier that erodes contingency.

- Economic: The post‑pandemic surge in materials and labour costs remains embedded. Mortgage Professional Australia signalled as early as 2022 that rising costs would suppress new building volumes; fast forward, and that warning has materialised in delayed starts and cancelled projects.

- Social: Demographic pressure (migration and household formation) collides with reduced supply responsiveness, exacerbating affordability stress.

- Technological: Construction digitisation lags other sectors; productivity gains have not offset cost inflation.

- Legal: Contract risk allocation (fixed-price legacies, liquidated damages) has moved many contractors to demand escalation clauses, lifting sponsor risk premiums.

- Environmental: Sustainability and code upgrades are essential but add upfront cost without immediate price recovery in the mid-market.

When you layer in the higher cost of capital, viability pivots from marginal to negative. Put simply, capitalised interest on longer, riskier programs kills mid-market yield.

Market dynamics: a Five Forces lens on residential construction

- Supplier power: Concentrated supply in key trades and materials keeps prices elevated. Labour shortages compound it, particularly for skilled roles.

- Buyer power: End-buyer price sensitivity is high in the mass market; developers can’t pass through full cost increases without crushing demand.

- Threat of substitutes: Renovations and deferrals act as substitutes to new stock, further weakening mid-market pre-sales.

- New entrants: Barriers to entry have risen with finance, compliance and insurance requirements, entrenching incumbents and advantaging vertically integrated players.

- Competitive rivalry: Land-heavy developers with balance sheet strength pivot to premium and build-to-rent (BTR), where yields and holding strategies are more resilient.

The centre of the market is where margin is thinnest and risk is highest. That’s why the pipeline skews to premium stock — the only segment absorbing the cost stack.

Business impact and ROI calculus: where capital flows, cranes follow

For lenders, the hurdle rate has shifted. Higher risk premiums, tougher pre‑sales thresholds and stricter covenants reduce available credit for mid-market developments. For sponsors, the ROI decision points are stark:

- Timing risk: Each month of approval and procurement delay compounds interest expense and materials volatility.

- Price elasticity: Mid-market buyers cannot absorb 10–20% cost inflation; premium buyers often can, preserving margin.

- Asset strategy: BTR can spread development risk over longer hold horizons while addressing rental demand, though yields must clear debt costs.

Global parallels reinforce the pattern. In the United States, new home sales fell in 2025 as higher borrowing costs bit, even as materials pressures eased in places. Australia’s challenge is a double bind: elevated input costs and stubborn approval timelines. Deloitte’s Weekly Economic Briefing in March 2025 summed it up: “deep-rooted challenges within the construction industry continue to stifle housing supply growth.”

Implementation playbook: compress cost, time and risk

Winning strategies are operational, contractual and financial:

- Standardise and simplify: Repeatable designs and standard components reduce rework, shorten approvals, and strengthen procurement power.

- Offsite and modular: Shifting labour into controlled environments mitigates weather and site risk and improves quality assurance. It also enables more reliable schedules — critical when capital costs are high.

- Alliance contracting and early contractor involvement (ECI): Shared-risk models align incentives around cost transparency and schedule discipline, reducing disputes and contingency stacking.

- Hedging and indexed contracts: Materials price hedges and escalation clauses matched to recognised indices de-risk budgets and make projects bankable again.

- Portfolio-driven procurement: Aggregating demand across multiple projects unlocks volume discounts and secures scarce trades.

- Data discipline: Cost and schedule benchmarking, variance analytics, and stage-gate governance prevent scope creep and protect contingency.

Technology and AI: productivity is the only durable antidote to cost inflation

Australia’s AI ecosystem has momentum but a commercialisation gap, according to a June 2025 analysis of the sector. The opportunity for construction is practical, not speculative: deploy AI and advanced analytics to attack waste in design and delivery.

- Preconstruction: AI-assisted design and quantity take‑offs can reduce errors and compress value-engineering cycles. Parametric tools quickly test cost/constructability trade-offs against code constraints.

- Scheduling: Machine learning forecasts identify bottlenecks and weather or supply risk earlier, enabling proactive resequencing.

- Compliance: Natural language processing tools can map evolving code and planning conditions to standard templates, cutting approval documentation time.

- Quality and safety: Computer vision on site improves defect detection and safety compliance, lowering rework and insurance costs.

Guardrails exist for responsible deployment: the Australian Government’s AI Ethics Principles provide a governance baseline, and agencies like the ATO have published frameworks distinguishing general-purpose AI from domain use — useful reference points for builders and developers standing up AI programs. The constraint is not policy; it’s execution and integration into core workflows.

Policy and workforce: necessary but insufficient levers

Policy signals are encouraging but small relative to the gap. The Northern Australia Action Plan 2024–2029 earmarks $88.8 million over three years to expand the construction workforce and support supply. Fee‑Free TAFE helps, yet capacity and productivity must both rise to bend the cost curve.

Two pragmatic regulatory moves would have outsized impact:

- Streamlined approvals with statutory time limits and digital lodgement, using common assessment templates to reduce variability across councils.

- Nationally harmonised codes for standardised medium-density typologies, enabling scale manufacturing and faster compliance checks.

Without cycle‑time certainty, the cost of capital will continue to price out mid-market projects, regardless of subsidies.

Outlook for 2026: scenarios and signals to watch

- Base case: Costs remain elevated and permissions slow; premium and BTR dominate commencements, mid-market volumes stay subdued. Rent growth persists as supply lags.

- Reform case: Targeted planning reforms and wider uptake of modular/AI tools trim 10–15% from program timelines, improving bankability for select mid-market projects.

- Downside case: A further tightening of credit or contractor insolvencies trigger widespread project deferrals.

Signals to monitor: tender coverage ratios in major metros; approval cycle times; subcontractor insolvency data; escalation clauses prevalence; and lender pre‑sales thresholds. If these indicators improve concurrently, the mid-market pipeline can re-open.

Strategic moves now

Developers: rationalise pipelines around standardised product, lock in alliance partners, and negotiate index-linked contracts. Investors and lenders: back sponsors demonstrating schedule certainty via offsite and data-led delivery, and consider BTR platforms with operational capability. Builders: invest in AI-enabled estimating/scheduling and offsite capacity. Policymakers: prioritise approval certainty over one-off subsidies.

The housing supply squeeze is, at its core, a productivity and risk problem. The firms that industrialise delivery and de-risk capital — not just wait for cheaper inputs — will be the ones still building when the market turns.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2026-01-08 01:30:52" ["slug"]=> string(98) "19789:cost-red-tape-and-capital-why-australias-housing-pipeline-is-shrinking-and-how-to-rebuild-it" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#10177 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

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Australia’s housing pipeline is being choked by a toxic mix of escalating input costs, regulatory drag and tighter finance. The result: mid-market projects stall while luxury builds proceed, pushing prices higher and locking more renters out. This is no longer a cyclical blip; it’s a structural productivity and cost-of-capital problem with 2026 shaping up as another constrained year. Business leaders that can compress cost, cycle time and risk will capture share — particularly in build-to-rent and premium segments.

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string(0) "" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#10204 (33) { ["id"]=> int(4) ["title"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["name"]=> string(9) "video-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-19 05:54:21" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#9833 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#9831 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#9832 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#9860 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" 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"Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#10212 (33) { ["id"]=> int(2) ["title"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["name"]=> string(14) "embedded-video" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:43:32" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(5) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#9872 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#9877 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#9874 (3) { 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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(115) "/invest-money/property/cost-red-tape-and-capital-why-australias-housing-pipeline-is-shrinking-and-how-to-rebuild-it" ["image"]=> string(111) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1767993809/pexels-rdne-7464399_pizvdx.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(101) "Cost, red tape and capital: why Australia’s housing pipeline is shrinking — and how to rebuild it" } }