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The firm had previously predicted a modest rise for house prices next year.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(2642) "As a result of higher than expected inflation and anticipated interest rate rises, HSBC has forecast that house prices will fall between 5 and 10 per cent during 2023.
The firm, which previously predicted house price growth of between 1 and 4 per cent next year, now expects that the Reserve Bank (RBA) will raise the cash rate to 1.35 per cent by the end of this year and to 1.85 per cent by mid next year, ultimately impacting house prices.
“We expect demand for housing in the regional and smaller cities to remain above pre-pandemic levels, as the pandemic means increased work from home is a part of the 'new normal'. This should support housing prices in these areas more than in the largest cities,” said HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham and economist Jamie Culling.
“We also expect the rental market to continue to tighten, lifting rents, as international migrants and students support demand, and housing investors seek rental return as capital gains diminish.”
HSBC maintained its view that house prices would rise by 5 to 9 per cent on average in 2022 with falls predicted to begin in the second half of the year.
House price growth nationally has slowed to 1 per cent year-to-date, after rising by 26 per cent since the third quarter of 2020 and 21 per cent in 2021 alone.
“Australia's housing market has boomed through much of the pandemic period, supported by the sharp fall in interest rates to all-time lows and the forward guidance from the RBA suggesting that rates would stay low,” the HSBC economists said.
“Supportive fiscal policy played a role too, by boosting household incomes, keeping workers attached to jobs through the wage subsidy scheme and direct measures to support housing construction.”
After the house price-to-income ratio reached 5.0 per cent in 2021, the highest on record, HSBC said that the anticipated decline in prices would likely improve affordability.
Based on a GDP forecast of 3.5 per cent in 2022 and 2.8 per cent in 2023, the firm expects that the house price-to-income ratio would fall to 4.7 per cent at the end of 2022 and 4.1 per cent at the end of 2023.
Thanks to a strong jobs market, tight lending standards and mortgage buffers, HSBC said that the impact on household financial stress should be limited.
“Very few borrowers are highly vulnerable to changes in cash flow or expenses,” HSBC said.
“Despite the risks to specific households, if our housing price forecasts eventuate, it is unlikely to hold large financial stability implications for Australia.
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The firm had previously predicted a modest rise for house prices next year.
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to an end in Sydney and Melbourne, Perth house prices are still on the rise.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(3058) "CoreLogic’s Home Value Index for April revealed that Perth house prices had moved 1.1 per cent higher during the month even as Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart posted declines.
Dwelling values in Perth are now at a record high, CoreLogic confirmed in additional analysis published this week, after surpassing the previous record set in mid-2014 by 0.9 per cent.
“This means it has taken 94 months for the Perth market to stage a nominal recovery in dwelling values,” said CoreLogic head of research Australia Eliza Owen.
“Perth dwelling values have seen extreme cyclical movements in line with the boom and bust of the resources sector since the 2000s.”
Looking back at the recent history of Perth property market, Ms Owen said that dwelling values had more than doubled between January 2000 and January 2007 at the same time as business investment associated with the mining sector almost doubled.
High demand for commodities, particularly from China, continued through to the mid-2010s, with house prices peaking in June 2014.
A steel glut in China then dramatically reduced demand for iron ore and saw boom conditions reverse across the state.
CoreLogic recorded a peak to trough decline of -20 per cent for Perth dwelling values between June 2014 and September 2019.
“According to the indexed median dwelling value, this was the equivalent of around $95,000 lost at the median dwelling value over a period of 5.3 years,” said Ms Owen.
“While values remain much higher than at the onset of the mining boom in the early 2000s, prices have not moved significantly higher since 2006.”
Since June 2020, dwelling values in Perth have risen by a cumulative 24.5 per cent, with growth supported by a recovery in mining activity, an unemployment rate below 4 per cent, strong jobs growth and positive interstate migration.
“The expansion of mining employment should see some upside amid the global recovery from the pandemic and, perversely, disruptions to commodity exports from Russia and Ukraine,” Ms Owen predicted.
“However, capacity constraints from a tight labour market and materials shortage may prevent these potential gains from being fully realised.”
Perth’s relative affordability as the capital city with the second lowest median dwelling value as well as a potential short-term increase in demand from investors due to the highest rental yields out of all the capitals among the capital could be set to spur further growth.
“While there are several tailwinds for the Perth dwelling market which suggest a continued upswing, the recent tightening of interest rates may be a blunt force for housing demand,” Ms Owen concluded.
“Perth may eventually follow other Australian markets into a broad-based downswing as a result, just as record-low interest rates aided the recent recovery.”
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While growth may have come to an end in Sydney and Melbourne, Perth house prices are still on the rise.
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In Australia’s largest cities, as much as two years are spent simply building up the funds to pay the cost of stamp duty, according to new data.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(2873) "State and federal government schemes currently offer stamp duty relief and deposit guarantees for first home buyers depending on the purchaser’s income bracket, location, and the price of the property they want to buy. But according to Angus Moore, an economist with PropTrack, those policies may help some first home buyers buy sooner, but there’s a more systemic problem at play that should be addressed.
“Even with concessions in place, for first-home buyers targeting entry-level homes, stamp duty significantly slows the path to purchase,” Mr Moore said.
“For many first-home buyers, it is saving the 20 per cent deposit – rather than servicing the mortgage once they have one – that is the constraint on homeownership,” he noted.
In Sydney, the purchase price for a typical entry-level home for a first home buyer sits at $750,000; in Melbourne, it’s $610,000. As housing prices have risen, so too has the time it takes to save a deposit.
PropTrack’s data shows that 10 years ago, a typical Sydney buyer spent 4.4 years saving for a home deposit. Now it takes 7.1 years. In Melbourne, that duration has elongated from 4.5 years to 6.1 years. Meanwhile, in the country’s smaller markets, that figure has remained largely consistent at roughly four years for both Brisbane and Adelaide.
But stamp duty still accounts for a significant portion of the time spent saving in all of these locations, Mr Moore reported.
“Stamp duty for an entry-level home adds around an extra year of saving in most cities. For more expensive, median-priced homes, stamp duty adds an extra two years’ worth of saving in Sydney and Melbourne and between one and 1.5 extra years in other cities,” he said.
Mr Moore acknowledged that stamp duty concessions for first home buyers in Canberra, NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, and Tasmania do help. But all of these programs, except for the ACT’s, place caps on the maximum price of a home that a first-time buyer can purchase.
In Sydney, the first home buyer concession reduces deposit-saving time by around half a year for a relatively affordable home for some buyers. In Melbourne, the concession reduces saving time by as much as one and a half years.
But Mr Moore noted that the caps restrict the savings to only a certain demographic of first home buyers with a restricted set of needs.
“While a more-affordable, entry-level, home may benefit from stamp duty concessions, even median-priced dwellings will not in almost all states,” Mr Moore noted.
“In particular, the caps mean that few detached houses are eligible. Instead, first-home buyers are mainly restricted to apartments. This is not the case in Canberra, as the concession there has no price cap and so all dwellings are eligible”.
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Saving for a home takes years for the typical first-time buyer. In Australia’s largest cities, as much as two years are spent simply building up the funds to pay the cost of stamp duty, according to new data.
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residential property market has been released, indicating a bleak outlook for growth in metropolitan areas as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is under pressure to set its first interest rate hike in more than a decade.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(3365) "The latest data in CoreLogic’s Home Value Index (HVI) points to a major slowdown for cities across Australia, especially Sydney and Melbourne, which have hit their first quarter of negative territory since the COVID-19 lockdowns of 2020.
The HVI figures indicating a nationwide market slowdown are backed by a deeply complex set of catalysts, which CoreLogic’s research director Tim Lawless cites as stretched housing affordability, higher fixed term mortgage rates, a rise in listing numbers across some cities and lower consumer sentiment.
Mr Lawless warned that if the RBA sets a hike in the cash rate, there will likely be a further loss of momentum in housing conditions over the remainder of the year and into 2023.
“As the cash rate rises, variable mortgage rates will also trend higher, reducing borrowing capacity and impacting borrower serviceability assessments,” Mr Lawless said.
The figures in the HVI illustrate a declining monthly rate of growth at 0.6 per cent - the lowest reading since October 2020.
According to CoreLogic, Sydney and Melbourne had the heaviest weighing in the HVI, and were the “main drag” on the headline growth rates – Sydney housing values were down by 0.2 per cent, Melbourne dropped by 0.04 per cent, and Hobart showed its first monthly fall in 22 months of 0.3 per cent.
Other cities across Australia fared slightly better, including Adelaide at 1.9 per cent growth in April, as well as Brisbane at 1.7 per cent, Canberra at 1.3 per cent, and Perth at 1.1 per cent. Although these cities indicate higher growth rates than Sydney and Melbourne, Mr Lawless warned the trend rate of growth is “easing” in most of these areas as well.
Based on rolling quarterly change, Brisbane dwellings moved through a peak rate of growth in December 2021 at 8.5 per cent, slowing to 5.7 per cent over the most recent three-month period. Similarly, Adelaide moved through a peak in the trend rate of growth in January at 7.4 per cent, reducing to 5.4 per cent in April.
But Perth and Darwin are a tale of two cities that have bucked the trend set by the others, where the rolling quarterly trend has gathered some steam since late 2021. Perth housing values were up 2.4 per cent over the three months ending April compared with a recent lull through late last year when the quarterly trend fell to just 0.4 per cent.
Mr Lawless said a rebound in migration rates as state and international borders reopened could partially explain the “renewed exuberance”, along with persistently low advertised stock levels and strong economic conditions.
“While ABS internal migration data by greater capital city is currently only reported to June 2021, the data points to a vast uplift in internal migration to Perth for the year (6,468), a substantial turn-around from the previous four-year average (-3,735).”
While Australian cities are evidently struggling with their housing values, the regional Australian housing markets have told a more upbeat story, having been “somewhat insulated” from the nationwide slowdown, according to CoreLogic.
The figures for the regions show housing values up 1.4 per cent in April across the combined regionals index, compared with a 0.3 per cent gain across the combined capitals.
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A new set of figures outlining the present state of Australia’s residential property market has been released, indicating a bleak outlook for growth in metropolitan areas as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is under pressure to set its first interest rate hike in more than a decade.
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["label"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> string(1) "0" ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> string(1) "1" ["group_state"]=> string(1) "1" ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(64) "/invest-money/property/house-values-dragged-down-in-latest-index" ["image"]=> string(45) "images/article-826x550/monopoly_houses_ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(12) "House values" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#7544 (56) { ["id"]=> string(5) "18265" ["title"]=> string(43) "How does Labor's 'Help to Buy' scheme work?" ["alias"]=> string(40) "how-does-labor-s-help-to-buy-scheme-work" ["introtext"]=> string(109) "Labor has pledged to cut the cost of buying a home by up to 40 per cent for 10,000 Aussies per year.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(3715) "Hailed as the "much-needed national plan to address the housing affordability crisis", Labor's shared-equity scheme has been widely applauded.
“Housing affordability needs to be a national priority and the opposition’s commitments are very welcome, with the need to boost housing supply the key to helping more Australians into homes,” said Property Council chief executive Ken Morrison after federal opposition Leader, Anthony Albanese, detailed Labor's campaign centrepiece over the weekend.
Just days before the Reserve Bank (RBA) is expected to lift rates for the first time in over a decade, piling on extra pressure on households, Labor has pledged to make housing more affordable.
According to Mr Albanese, Labor intends to cut the cost of a mortgage by up to $380,000 by introducing a policy, called Help to Buy, which will help Australians buy a home with a smaller deposit, a smaller mortgage and smaller mortgage repayments.
"We have a housing crisis in Australia. It’s harder to buy a home today than ever before.
"It’s hard in our big cities. It’s also hard in the regions.
"It’s hard for first home buyers. It’s also hard for many older Australians," Mr Albanese said.
Under Labor's plan, home buyers would receive an equity contribution of up to 40 per cent of the purchase price of a new home and up to 30 per cent of the purchase price for an existing home. The homebuyer will, however, need to have a deposit of 2 per cent and qualify for a standard home loan with a participating lender to finance the remainder of the purchase.
Homebuyers will also avoid the need to pay Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI), representing an additional saving, depending on purchase location, of potentially more than $30,000.
"During the loan period the homebuyer can buy an additional stake in the home when they are able to do so," Mr Albanese explained, noting that the homebuyer will not be required to pay rent on the stake of the home owned by the federal government.
"This scheme is not just for first home buyers, it’s for other Australians who need a helping hand as well".
Help to Buy is intended for Australians with a taxable income of up to $90,000 for individuals and up to $120,000 for couples. Home buyers must also be Australian citizens and they cannot own or have an interest in a residential dwelling.
In Sydney and NSW regional centres, Labor intends to cap the property price at $950,000, providing a potential saving to homebuyers up to $380,000 on a new house and $285,000 on an existing house.
In Melbourne and Victorian regional centres, the property price cap of $850,000 would allow home buyers to save $340,000 on a new house and $255,000 on an existing house.
Reacting to Labor's announcement, the Property Council's Mr Morrison said that the fact the scheme is limited to 10,000 places a year means it is "unlikely to distort housing markets or prices".
Mr Morrison also welcomed the opposition’s plan to create a National Housing Supply and Affordability Council and called for its role to be strengthened to ensure housing supply targets are achieved.
“We strongly welcome the proposed National Housing Supply and Affordability Council with its clear responsibility to collaborate on housing targets for each state and territory and advise on best practice solutions,” Mr Morrison said.
- Yes
Labor has pledged to cut the cost of buying a home by up to 40 per cent for 10,000 Aussies per year.
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expected decline in prices outside of Sydney and Melbourne, CoreLogic has said.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(3219) "Following Wednesday’s confirmation of a 5.1 per cent annual inflation rate, the Reserve Bank (RBA) is facing mounting pressure to lift interest rates at its board meeting on Tuesday for the first time since 2010, which punters are expecting could spark a downward spiral in house prices.
The RBA earlier explained that a 2-percentage point rise in interest rates could translate into a 15 per cent drop in real housing prices.
But even before the official cash rate target has increased, a lift in average fixed mortgage rates, lower consumer sentiment, affordability constraints and higher levels of supply have started to push prices downward. In Sydney and Melbourne,O prices slipped 0.2 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively, in March.
Preliminary readings from CoreLogic’s daily HVI point to another monthly fall in housing values across these two cities in April.
As such, CoreLogic expects a rate hike to trigger an earlier than expected decline in prices outside of Sydney and Melbourne, which could then have a flow on effect for other cities to follow.
CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, explained that under the RBA’s scenario, based on where national housing values were at the end of March, a 15 per cent drop in values would take housing values back to levels similar as March 2021.
A larger fall of 20 per cent could take national housing values back to similar levels as June 2017, while a smaller 10 per cent drop would see values at levels similar to June 2021 and a 5 per cent drop back to September 2021 levels.
“In markets where housing values have been rising faster, such as Brisbane and Adelaide, a 15 per cent decline would take housing values back to July and August 2021 levels respectively,” he says.
“While in Melbourne, a 15 per cent drop could see values at a similar level as May 2017, or in the case of Perth, back to June 2009 levels.”
As for how quickly prices could fall, CoreLogic’s head of research Eliza Owen said that will depend on where rising interest rates land and a variety of other factors.
She explained that helping offset the downside risk are extremely tight labour markets, improving economic conditions, and recovering migration rates.
“Since the late 1980s, Australia has experienced national downturns that have ranged in severity from a 1.0 per cent peak to trough decline in 2015-16, a temporary correction following the first round of credit tightening via APRA’s 10 per cent speed limit on investment lending, to an 8.4 per cent drop in national values between late 2017 and mid-2019,” she said.
Where interest rates will land is anyone’s guess, with economists posting varied predictions.
ANZ is counting on the RBA to move by 15 basis points in May, before turning to 25-basis point increments from June, with a “real possibility” of one or two 50-basis point moves.
VanEck has predicted rates would land somewhere between 1.75 per cent and 2.25 per cent by year end, while HBSC has published a more modest scenario, tipping rates to sit at 1 per cent by end-2022 and 1.25 per cent by mid-2023.
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A rate hike in May is expected to trigger an earlier than expected decline in prices outside of Sydney and Melbourne, CoreLogic has said.
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