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Gone are the days when an Australian dream home seemed just within reach. The path to homeownership in Australia has extended by at least two arduous years, as revealed by the latest insights from PEXA's research.

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The findings, which shine a light on the escalating challenge facing prospective buyers, underscore the harsh reality of the country's housing market.

In New South Wales, the time it now takes to squirrel away enough for a home deposit has almost doubled from a little over four years in 2020 to nearly eight years today—an eye-watering increase of 83.2%. With sights set on Victoria, a would-be homeowner will find themselves saving for five and a half years, up from just over three years—accounting for a 64.2% spike. In Queensland, the journey has been lengthened to over five years from under four years in early 2021, up by 36.9%.

Peering into the numbers, the FY23 median home deposit amount stands at an imposing $119,969 in NSW, with Sydney scaling even higher at $145,000. Victoria's median deposit hovers at $84,723, whereas Melbourne sees a steeper $94,000. In Queensland, figures tally up to $78,143, with Brisbane marginally higher at $85,163.

Highlighting the grim picture further, deposit-to-value ratios (DVRs) have reached 20% across all eastern states. For those aiming at the more affordable homes under $500,000, the DVRs sit at 16-18%. In contrast, the premium property market—homes priced at $2 million and above—demands DVRs of 27-30%.

PEXA's Head of Research, Mike Gill, unpacks the consequences of this unfolding scenario. "With higher interest rates and rising property prices, the time to save for a deposit has increased significantly over the past few years. This has made the generational wealth gap more apparent, with younger demographics facing growing challenges to enter the property market," remarked Mr Gill.

The research found that average loan-to-value ratios (LVR) reached their zenith at around 83% at the end of 2020, amidst the COVID pandemic. This meant that home purchasers previously needed to furnish a deposit of merely 17%. Fast-forward to the present, tightened credit standards and climbing interest rates have pushed the required deposits upwards, putting additional years' worth of savings between Australians and their ideal homes.

“Our research found average loan-to-value ratios (LVR) peaked at around 83% at the end of 2020 during the onset of the COVID pandemic, meaning homebuyers needed to put down a deposit of only 17%. However, as lenders have tightened credit standards in response to increased interest rates, LVRs have trended downwards, increasing the deposits required. Coupled with high property prices, home buyers now need to work for at least two years longer to save for their home deposits," elucidated Mr Gill.

Delving deeper into FY23 findings presents a daunting vista. Across the eastern states, the total value of deposits amounted to a staggering $62.2 billion, partitioned into $27.2 billion for NSW, $20 billion for Victoria, and $15 billion for Queensland. The necessity for lenders mortgage insurance persisted in more than half of the purchases.

Moreover, while the loan-to-value ratios appeared higher among the major banks as opposed to non-major lenders, it implies that major banks may be more inclined towards borrowers with lower deposits, possibly due to the visibility of the borrower's financial background.

In the narrative of Australia's housing market, the burden of extended saving periods illuminates the widening divide between income brackets, generational equity, and the ever-lengthening Australian dream of homeownership. With this in-depth research in hand, industry stakeholders and policymakers might need to take a closer look to find ways to bridge the gap and render the pathway to homeownership a more attainable pursuit for all Australians.

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Gone are the days when an Australian dream home seemed just within reach. The path to homeownership in Australia has extended by at least two arduous years, as revealed by the latest insights from PEXA's research.

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In a ground-breaking strategy aimed at addressing the stark imbalance between the location of Specialist Disability Accommodation (SDA) developments and the actual areas of demand, Aligned Disability Investments has paved a new path with what CEO Arthur Naoumidis calls "hybrid development."

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This innovative approach offers a crucial bridge between enticing investor involvement and tackling the urgent need for disability housing solutions in metropolitan hotspots—areas that simultaneously host a higher population of individuals with disabilities and come with a heftier land price tag.

Under the traditional model, the high costs of land in major cities have driven most SDA development to regional and greenfield locations, despite stronger demand in urban centers. However, aligned Disability Properties' (ADP) Fund's hybrid development model seeks to turn this paradigm on its head. It strikes a balance by splitting the investment between residential real estate and SDA facilities, typically working with a formula of two residential apartments for every one SDA apartment. The residential units are sold to offset the heavy land and construction debts, while the SDA portion remains within the fund, generating a stream of rental income for investors.

"The hybrid model is simple with a natural and attractive exit strategy and a high income return with the security that government benefit payments provide," explains Naoumidis, underscoring the elegance and practicality of this investment strategy.

With the promise of creating a portfolio attractive enough for institutional buyers, the ADP Fund intends to cling to the completed SDA properties. The endgame is to offer this portfolio for sale, dangling the prospect of handsome capital gains in front of potential large-scale investors and maintaining attractive income during the retention period.

Investors worried about liquidity need not fear—the model has thought it through, offering an exit option whenever the ADP Fund parts with an asset. Additionally, investors wield collective power to determine whether the fund gets another term after its initial five years.

But the benefits don't stop there. The ADP Fund is democratizing the sphere of shared SDA housing investment, previously out of reach for smaller investors and Self-Managed Super Funds (SMSFs). Thanks to the collaboration between Aligned Disability Investments and BrickX, these investors can now confidently step into this arena.

Anchored by robust numbers highlighting the investment's potential—4.3 million Australians living with disabilities and projections of service demand scaling up to 741,000 individuals by 2026—the ADP Fund promises not just diversification but a stronghold in the most lucrative rental markets, namely major cities. This focus contrasts boldly with current trends which miss the mark by overlooking the high-density urban centres.

With these powerful metrics, including the pressing need for over 2,500 additional dwellings by 2026 according to NDIS Quarterly reports, investors and financial advisers would be wise to consider the ADP Fund's SDA housing as a key component of a diversified and income-focused portfolio. The message is clear: hybrid development isn't just a savvy financial play; it's a vital answer to an urgent societal requirement.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2023-11-21 22:00:21" ["slug"]=> string(81) "18387:hybrid-development-unlocks-new-potential-for-ndis-housing-in-metro-hotspots" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8601 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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In a ground-breaking strategy aimed at addressing the stark imbalance between the location of Specialist Disability Accommodation (SDA) developments and the actual areas of demand, Aligned Disability Investments has paved a new path with what CEO Arthur Naoumidis calls "hybrid development."

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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(98) "/invest-money/property/hybrid-development-unlocks-new-potential-for-ndis-housing-in-metro-hotspots" ["image"]=> string(138) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1655109741/Nestegg/article-826x550/Boutique_Brisbane_investment2.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(75) "Hybrid development unlocks new potential for NDIS housing in metro hotspots" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#8074 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18355) ["title"]=> string(48) "Property prices boosted by housing policies: RBA" ["alias"]=> string(47) "property-prices-boosted-by-housing-policies-rba" ["introtext"]=> string(94) "

The central bank has outlined the “pervasive” impact that policy has on property.

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Reserve Bank (RBA) assistant governor Luci Ellis has reviewed the state of Australia’s property market as the country enters the endemic stage of the COVID-19 virus.

In an address to the Urban Development Institute of Australia on Tuesday, Ms Ellis drew attention to the significant impact policies such as the government’s HomeBuilder grant have had on the market. 

“Whether it's time-limited subsidies bunching demand and boosting prices, or the interplay between low yields globally and rental yields locally, policy can have pervasive effects on housing outcomes,” she said.

Policy is particularly impactful over the short term, Ms Ellis explained, with the boost to demand driven by HomeBuilder and other temporary measures set to dissipate moving forward.

“As interest rates increase, the boost to demand from the current low interest rates will also wane. And the shifts in demand stemming from the pandemic will have worked their way through,” she added.

According to recent data, since the outset of the pandemic, the average household size has fallen and the proportion of Australians living in shared housing has remained low, resulting in increased demand.

“This helps explain why rental vacancy rates quickly returned to low levels even though the international border was closed and population growth declined to be close to zero,” Ms Ellis noted.

“Roughly speaking, the decline in population growth meant that there were up to 200,000 households that didn't arrive in Australia over the past two years, who would have done so if population growth had stayed where it was before the pandemic. But the decline in the average size of households that were already here broadly offset this.”

Shifting preferences and the rise of working from home have translated into an increased desire for more space while the importance of location has somewhat decreased.

“The relative premium paid to be closer to the city centre - both in rents and purchase prices - narrowed during the pandemic,” said Ms Ellis.

“Housing prices increased over the two years to April this year across almost all neighbourhoods in the major cities. However, in general, price increases were stronger in the outer suburbs than in inner-urban regions. The premium for being close to the centre remains, but it is much smaller now and is closer to the premium for being in a middle-ring suburb.”

However, Ms Elllis said that it is currently unclear whether these trends will persist over the longer term.

“The desire for more space further from the office might wane over time as the memories of lockdown start to fade,” she suggested.

“Not everyone who sought a ‘tree change’ in the regions will find that to be the right choice in the long term. More importantly, many of the shifts of population between locations were less a change in people's decisions than a simple interruption of the normal flows.

On the outlook for residential construction, Ms Ellis said that the temporary surge in building approvals for detached homes and renovations linked to HomeBuilder and other time-limited subsidies was expected to begin to fade.

But in the meantime, the construction industry appears to be operating at capacity, according to the RBA.

“Our expectation is that construction of new homes will remain solid for the next couple of years. The housing stock will therefore continue to expand as a result,” Ms Ellis said.

“We expect it will expand at rates similar to the first decade of this century, but not as much as during the boom in apartment building in the second half of the 2010s. This is likely to still be enough to keep the housing stock growing faster than the population.”

Australia is set for another new housing policy following Anthony Albanese’s victory in the federal election. During the pre-election campaign, Labor pitched a Help to Buy scheme in a bid to assist more Aussies into the market. 

However, CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless has warned that the shared-equity scheme is not without its risks.

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• Yes

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The central bank has outlined the “pervasive” impact that policy has on property.

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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(70) "/invest-money/property/property-prices-boosted-by-housing-policies-rba" ["image"]=> string(43) "images/article-826x550/RBA_sign_NEW2_ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(15) "Property prices" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#8073 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18352) ["title"]=> string(56) "Labor’s ‘Help to Buy’ scheme not without its risks" ["alias"]=> string(48) "labor-s-help-to-buy-scheme-not-without-its-risks" ["introtext"]=> string(233) "

With Anthony Albanese sworn in as Australia’s 31st PM, home buyers are excited at the prospect of accessing the new ‘Help to Buy’ scheme, but a property expert has warned that the risks may be greater than the rewards.

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Anthony Albanese’s victory in the 2022 federal election has put Australia under a Labor government for the first time in almost a decade and what many young Aussies are now looking forward to is Labor’s promise to make housing more accessible.  

During the election campaign, the Labor government proposed a shared-equity scheme to help alleviate the housing affordability crisis.

Under the scheme, individuals earning up to $90,000, or $120,000 for couples, can access an equity contribution of up to 40 per cent of the purchase price of a new home and up to 30 per cent of the purchase price for an existing home provided they don’t already own a home and have a deposit of 2 per cent.

However, research director at CoreLogic, Tim Lawless, warned that despite the likely popularity of the scheme, it is not without its risks.

Mr Lawless referred to the scheme as a “pragmatic” policy in the context of the escalating issue of housing affordability, noting that it addresses the symptoms rather than dealing with the underlying issues head on.

According to Mr Lawless, there are several associated risks when buying a home on a small deposit that buyers need to be aware of.

“With the housing market probably heading into a downturn over the coming year or years, some buyers may find their home is worth less than the debt held against it,” Mr Lawless said.

“It’s important to know if the government will share in the downside risk if the property is sold while in a negative equity situation.”

In order to exemplify his point, Mr Lawless drew a parallel between Labor’s ‘Help to Buy’ scheme and Western Australia’s KeyStart scheme which resulted in a relatively high number of defaults during the market downturn of 2017 to 2019.

According to the expert, between January 2017 and September 2019, loan accounts in default increased from 0.92 per cent to 1.21 per cent of KeyStart accounts.

However, Mr Lawless does believe that the new scheme will contribute to more equality in rates of home ownership across income cohorts, and could create more opportunities for key workers to live in more central areas.

“Being able to share up to 40 per cent of the purchase price with the government, along with only a small deposit and opportunity to save on lenders mortgage insurance, helps to overcome several of the hurdles of home ownership,” he said.

“Keeping in mind buyers will still have to fund their transactional costs, including stamp duties, legal costs and bank fees.”

The ‘Help to Buy’ scheme kicks off in July. The number of candidates for the scheme is capped at 10,000 spots.

While the scheme will see the government take up to a 40 per cent stake in a home, buyers will be able to ‘top up’ their ownership stake once in a better financial position.

According to Labor, this would mean that for a home buyer in Sydney, buying at the maximum price cap of $950,000 with 40 per cent equity, monthly mortgage repayments would be over $1,600 cheaper.

During the pre-election campaign, the party clarified that home buyers will not be required to pay rent on the stake of the home held by the government. However, many details are yet to be confirmed particularly those pertaining to the eventual sale of the home and the division profits or potential losses.

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With Anthony Albanese sworn in as Australia’s 31st PM, home buyers are excited at the prospect of accessing the new ‘Help to Buy’ scheme, but a property expert has warned that the risks may be greater than the rewards.

Write comment (2 Comments) " ["jcfields"]=> array(9) { [1]=> object(stdClass)#8651 (33) { ["id"]=> int(1) ["title"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["name"]=> string(17) "automatic-tagging" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2018-08-29 05:26:30" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2355) ["ordering"]=> int(-1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8278 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8051 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8038 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8031 (2) { ["name"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8030 (2) { ["name"]=> string(2) "No" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8277 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8029 (6) { ["hint"]=> string(0) 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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(71) "/invest-money/property/labor-s-help-to-buy-scheme-not-without-its-risks" ["image"]=> string(47) "images/article-826x550/high-shot-suburbs-ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(56) "Labor’s ‘Help to Buy’ scheme not without its risks" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#8072 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18343) ["title"]=> string(75) "Australia's housing market is entering a ‘broad-based correction phase’" ["alias"]=> string(69) "australia-s-housing-market-is-entering-a-broad-based-correction-phase" ["introtext"]=> string(70) "

Westpac believes the housing market downturn is now underway.

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An earlier and more aggressive interest rate tightening cycle has brought forward the downturn of Australia’s property market, according to Westpac’s latest housing pulse report.

The bank suggested that the market had entered a “broad-based correction phase” in which the speed and extent of rate tightening will play a key role.

“Current conditions have already turned, sales down sharply from last year's extreme highs, and prices all but stalling nationally. Buyer sentiment is plumbing new cycle lows and house price expectations are being pared back quickly,” Westpac said.

House prices are now expected to have fallen by 2 per cent by the end of this year, ahead of an 8 per cent drop in 2023 and a 1 per cent dip in 2024.

Westpac predicted that the cash rate will peak at 2.25 per cent in May next year and remain at this level throughout the rest of 2023 and into 2024.

The bank noted that the RBA had been forced to move more quickly than expected on interest rates as a result of the recent spike in inflation, with the consumer price index up 5.1 per cent annually during the March quarter.

So far this year, housing market turnover has fallen 23 per cent in comparison to the highs recorded last year while annual price growth is set to dip to 11.8 per cent during May versus over 20 per cent in January.

Westpac said that housing market sentiment had continued to sour with the bank’s measure of ‘time to buy’ reaching a post-GFC low.

“While the weakening is broad–based, the state detail continues to show three distinct groups, separated by the degree to which stretched affordability has heightened sensitivity to rates,” said Westpac.

“NSW and Victoria are firmly in the 'most sensitive' group, capital cities in both states already seeing prices slip lower. WA and Tasmania are a little less sensitive. Queensland and SA remain more resilient, price growth only just starting to slow and coming from a strong starting point in both.”

The property market boom in NSW is “well and truly over”, Westpac indicated, with a sharp fall in turnover since the start of the year and prices beginning to decline.

Meanwhile, the bank said that the Victorian property market was cooling rapidly with turnover retracing sharply and prices dipping.

In contrast, the market in Queensland has gone “from red hot to hot” with turnover down but still historically high and price gains on track to deliver double digital annual growth.

Westpac noted that South Australia was the only major state where strong gains were still being recorded, with ongoing high turnover and sustained price growth.

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Westpac believes the housing market downturn is now underway.

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With higher interest rates on the horizon, the bank is forecasting larger house price declines than previously expected.

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ANZ has made a major revision to its house price forecasts for 2022 with a fall of 3 per cent now expected on average across the capital cities, down from its previous prediction of an 8 per cent rise.

House prices next year are also expected to decline more than the bank predicted in its earlier forecasts made before the Reserve Bank (RBA) kicked off its rapid tightening cycle, with a drop of 8 per cent rather than 6 per cent now anticipated.

“While the return of immigration, falling unemployment and rising wages will be supportive factors, higher rates will trump the positive fundamentals, and we expect national prices to turn down this year,” commented ANZ senior economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell.

Sydney and Melbourne, which have both suffered a decline in prices so far this year, are expected to be the worst performers by the year’s end.

ANZ has predicted a fall of 7 per cent for Sydney in 2022 and 8 per cent in 2023 while Melbourne is forecast to experience a fall of 5 per cent this year and 6 per cent next year.

Price growth will persist in Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth, according to the bank’s outlook, which have been among the strongest performers so far this year.

However, 2023 is then expected to bring significant falls of 13 per cent for Adelaide, 9 per cent for Brisbane and 7 per cent for Perth.

“Rising fixed mortgage rates, macroprudential tightening, elevated supply and affordability constraints were weighing on the market before the cash rate began to rise earlier this month. Auction clearance rates are trending lower and are likely to continue to do so,” said Ms Emmett and Ms Timbrell.

“Housing finance for both investors and owner-occupiers is high, but growth has slowed sharply. Sentiment about house prices has also turned lower. Working in the other direction, rising immigration, a tight rental market, cashed-up households and falling unemployment will be supportive.”

ANZ’s forecasts put the cash rate at 2.35 per cent by mid-2023, which the bank said would push variable mortgage rates to around 4.75 per cent.

“This will significantly reduce borrowing capacity, which will flow through to lower prices. We think that reduced borrowing capacity will be the key driver of lower prices and see only a very small risk of forced selling,” the ANZ economists said.

But the bank said it was confident that households would be able to cope with the impacts of looming higher interest rates.

“Undoubtedly some will struggle with higher repayments, but on average households are well ahead on their mortgage repayments, have large savings buffers and a promising outlook for both jobs and incomes,” Ms Emmett and Ms Timbrell said.

“After a peak-to-trough rise in house prices of 25 per cent since late 2020, our forecast decline of 11 per cent will still put prices well above pre-pandemic levels. Falling house prices will weigh on consumer spending through the wealth effect, but high savings will provide a solid buffer.”

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With higher interest rates on the horizon, the bank is forecasting larger house price declines than previously expected.

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