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Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced a $66.1 billion economic lifeline, just 10 days after announcing an initial $17.6 billion package, with more help coming to those affected by the COVID-19 outbreak.

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The new package, designed as a “safety net for workers”, is dedicated to combating the economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

A total of $189 billion has now been injected into the economy through two stimulus packages from the government, as well as $100 billion from Australia’s central bank.

Under the second package, the government will allow individuals in “financial stress” as a result of the coronavirus to have limited access to their superannuation savings.

Australian workers sacked or stood down will be able to take up to $20,000 from their superannuation account over the next two years.

As part of the government’s second stimulus package, it has established a new time-limited coronavirus supplement payment of $550 per fortnight for the next six months at a cost of $14 billion. 

This will effectively double the rate of Newstart, which has been renamed to Jobseeker payments.

The maximum JobSeeker payment rate with a coronavirus supplement is now $1,162 per fortnight for a single with a dependent or child.

In the first package, the government announced that 6.5 million lower-income Australians would receive a one-off payment of $750 aimed at boosting domestic demand.

In the second package, the government announced an additional $750 payment to social security and veteran income support recipients and eligible concession cardholders. 

However, this won’t be available if you get the $550 a fortnight coronavirus supplement. 

The first payment will be made from 31 March 2020 to people eligible anytime between 12 March 2020 and 13 April 2020, with the second payment coming automatically from 13 July 2020. 

Five million Australians, including those who receive the age pension and carer allowance will soon be able to claim up to $750 in stimulus payments.

The new measures in the second stimulus will also target small businesses and not for profits as they are eligible to receive tax-free cash payments of up to $100,000 to help them retain their staff and keep operating. 

Not-for-profits that employ people will also be able to apply for a minimum payment of $20,000.

The measures are designed to help 690,000 businesses, which employ around 7.8 million Australians and about 30,000 not-for-profits, Mr Morrison said.

While the government has announced two changes in just two weeks, they have not ruled out the possibility of a third package.

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced a $66.1 billion economic lifeline, just 10 days after announcing an initial $17.6 billion package, with more help coming to those affected by the COVID-19 outbreak.

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A lot can happen in just a few weeks, that much is clear, writes Martin Fowler.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(5699) "

Expecting infection rates to fall as rapidly as they appear to have done in China now appears forlorn. Most countries have been hopelessly unprepared to deal with this pandemic. Frantic efforts to contain the virus, including border closures and public lockdowns, have arrived too late as infection rates proliferate. Public health systems are already under severe stress and it will only escalate from here.

In turn, it is likely that the world is already in recession as containment measures are making it virtually impossible for many businesses to stay open, particularly those in the travel, tourism, restaurant and retail sectors. According to health experts, these closures may need to extend for at least six months or more, resulting in business closures and huge job losses. Individuals without incomes will rely on government support payments, which, in most instances, won’t be enough to support their rent or mortgage repayments. This is likely to lead to a sharp rise in property foreclosures driving asset prices lower, not to mention a very depressed environment for consumer spending.

Suggestions that this downturn could be worse than the GFC now appear very real. At least during that crisis, any solvent business stayed open. This rather grim prognosis is reflected in sharemarkets, which have fallen off a cliff in recent weeks, tumbling more than 30 per cent from their February peaks.

Credit markets too have begun to show signs of distress, particularly in the high-yield end. This will only get worse as banks are struck by a potent combination of business and mortgage loan defaults, leading to large losses. As a result, any business that has loans maturing will face a nervous wait as banks inevitably tighten their lending criteria in these times. If the borrower is refused an extension, they then risk facing the even more brutal bond market where credit is usually available but not always at the right price. If the interest rate is too high, the last resort remains shareholders where raising capital in a depressed market will require a heavy discount and the issuance of a large number of shares, potentially leading to a sharp fall in the share price.

In recent days, central banks in the US, Europe and Australia have begun to initiate massive monetary stimulus measures to try and restore market confidence.

• On 14 March, the US Fed announced it would reduce its official cash rate to zero and launch a US$700 billion quantitative easing program over the next few months.
• On 19 March, the ECB announced an €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program where the ECB can buy up public and private sector shares on flexible terms, providing a lifeline to business and governments across Europe to keep them solvent during the crisis. 
• On 18 March, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its official rate to 0.25 per cent and also announced it would provide at least $90 billion at 0.25 per cent pa over three years to banks – if they lend that cash to small and medium-sized businesses.
• Scott Morrison followed that with a further $66 billion stimulus package on 22 March, allowing individuals to draw on up to $10,000 of their super and businesses to access up to $100,000 in subsidies to retain staff.

Having failed to normalise interest rate policy during the economic expansion that began in mid-2012, these interest rate cuts and liquidity injections will likely fail to stimulate the economy. Companies and individuals won’t want to borrow money to invest in new plant and equipment when demand has fallen off a cliff. However, what it will do is stabilise distressed credit markets somewhat as it should restore confidence that companies will be able to refinance maturing loans at cheap rates. To that extent, it is still a vital and positive development.

To date, markets have been unconvinced by these monetary policy developments as they know that in the absence of a commercially available vaccine, this won’t get people back to work nor will it replace the wages of displaced workers or compensate businesses for lost revenue.

If a commercially available vaccine is still 12-18 months away and a lockdown is going to continue for at least six months, if not longer, then what is needed is seismic fiscal stimulus on a scale not seen before. Governments in every major economy need to consider compensation for lost revenues and wages to all businesses and workers affected by lockdowns. Compensation of 50 per cent to 70 per cent might cost up to 20-plus per cent of GDP. While it would significantly increase government debt levels, most major countries could probably afford to do this as a one-off (there will be some exceptions). Indeed, some economists argue that it would do less damage than a tax cut that amounts to say 2 per cent of GDP, as ongoing costs can have a structural impact.

Measures of this extreme nature we believe are required to restore the confidence of anxious and nervous businesses and households that they will be looked after during this difficult time. Failing a vaccine, it is only then that further sharemarket falls might be stemmed.

To this end, the signs are starting to look more encouraging. In the US, the Republicans have released a massive multibillion-dollar stimulus plan that’s akin to a helicopter drop, providing cash of up to $1,200 per adult and $500 per child.

It may not be enough, but it’s a start. We expect much more to come, and we will need it.

Martin Fowler is a partner in Pitcher Partners’ wealth management division.

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A lot can happen in just a few weeks, that much is clear, writes Martin Fowler.

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Due to “great uncertainty”, no federal or state budgets will be handed down for the next six months, at least.

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In a press conference held on Friday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the newly formed national cabinet had agreed that putting budgets together at this time with the great uncertainty that exists “is not something that any Commonwealth or state government should be doing”. 

“As a result, we’ve already decided that we will not be now handing down a budget until the first Tuesday in October, on the 6th October,” Mr Morrison said. 

“The idea that you can actually put together any sort of forecasts around the economy at this time is simply not sensible,” he continued.

The states and territories will be working to a similar timetable.

Despite the delay, the Prime Minister said they “will be putting in place the necessary measures with the support of the Parliament on supply and other continuances to ensure the proper functioning of government services and the continuation of vital programs”.  

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator"]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2020-03-23 01:26:23" ["slug"]=> string(37) "14857:not-sensible-budget-pushed-back" ["parent_slug"]=> string(16) "284:invest-money" ["catslug"]=> string(11) "313:economy" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#3414 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(302) "

Due to “great uncertainty”, no federal or state budgets will be handed down for the next six months, at least.

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Yesterday’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to make an out-of-cycle rate cut to 0.25 per cent, while rarely done, was not quite unexpected given the unprecedented situation that’s unfolding in Australia and around the world. 

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(5424) "

In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, as markets worldwide slump and the likelihood of a recession looms ever larger, it’s unsurprising that the RBA would fire its final interest rate shot out of cycle.

The rate change follows the routine decision of 7 March, which had already dropped the interest rate to the record low of 0.5 per cent.

nestegg notes that the last time the nation experienced an out-of-cycle decision was back in 1997.

Will it help?

In a speech both acknowledging the cash rate change and indicating the bank’s need to implement other measures to combat the “extraordinary and challenging times”, RBA governor Philip Lowe conceded we could be in a tough situation for a while yet.

The board has already agreed that it “would not increase the cash rate from its current level until progress was made towards full employment and that we were confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2-3 per cent range”.

Australia is “likely to be at this level of interest rates for an extended period,” he offered.

So what happens now?

With economists overwhelmingly in agreement that the cash rate has now reached its effective lowest bound, it’s been well publicised that the RBA will now need to resort to quantitative easing to help prop up the economy.

Dr Lowe has highlighted that the board had decided on a comprehensive package that would help support jobs, incomes and businesses as the Australian economy deals with the coronavirus.

“By doing all that we can to lower funding costs in Australia and support the supply of credit to business, we will help our economy and financial system get through this difficult period,” he commented.

The case for quantitative easing

For this to occur, the RBA will now be targeting the yield on three-year Australian government securities, or bonds – conducting regular auctions and purchases in the secondary bond market at a target of around 0.25 per cent.

But according to the governor, the emphasis is not on considering such a project “quantitative easing”.

Instead, “how much we need to purchase, and when we need to enter the market, will depend upon market conditions and prices”.

“Rather than quantities or the size of our balance sheet, our focus is very much on the price of money and credit,” he said, emphasising the bank’s objective to provide support for low funding costs across the entire economy.

By way of further explanation, Dr Lowe said that “by lowering this important benchmark interest rate, we will add to the downward pressure on borrowing costs for financial institutions, households and businesses”.

“We are prepared to transact in whatever quantities are necessary to achieve this objective.”

Term funding

The RBA governor also explained that the bank would be creating a term funding facility for the banking system.

This will provide support for business credit – especially for small and medium-sized businesses.

One of the objectives of this is to lower funding costs for the entire banking system and therefore reduce costs around credit for households and businesses.

The second objective, as outlined by Dr Lowe, is to “provide an incentive for lenders to support credit to businesses” as an area of priority.

Under this new facility, he noted that authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) will have access to at least $90 billion in funding.

ADIs will be able to borrow from the Reserve Bank an amount equivalent to 3 per cent of their existing outstanding credit to Australian businesses and households and be able to draw on these funds up until the end of September this year.

Interest rate adjustment on exchange settlement balances

The final aspect of the new measures being implemented by the RBA is an adjustment to the interest rate on exchange settlement balances, as they normally operate on a 0.25 per cent corridor each side of the cash rate.

The lower bound will now sit at 10 basis points above zero (0.10 per cent).

This will prevent the lower bound from offering a zero per cent interest rate, particularly where the RBA now expects to see an influx of exchange settlements taking place.

The governor also alluded to previous RBA actions undertaken in the last week, such as the injection of “substantial” extra liquidity into the financial system through daily market operations.

This has seen exchange settlement balances increase from around $2.5 billion just a month ago to more than $20 billion as of 20 March 2020.

“In the context of extraordinary times and consistent with our broad mandate to promote the economic welfare of the people of Australia, we are seeking to play our full role in building that bridge to the time when the recovery takes place,” the governor offered.

And in an attempt to offer some optimism amid the uncertainty, Dr Lowe stated that “at some point, the virus will be contained and our economy and our financial markets will recover”. 

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator"]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2020-03-20 01:30:22" ["slug"]=> string(61) "14852:extraordinary-and-challenging-times-led-to-rba-rate-cut" ["parent_slug"]=> string(16) "284:invest-money" ["catslug"]=> string(11) "313:economy" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#3417 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(452) "

Yesterday’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to make an out-of-cycle rate cut to 0.25 per cent, while rarely done, was not quite unexpected given the unprecedented situation that’s unfolding in Australia and around the world. 

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The coronavirus outbreak is predicted to lead to at least two quarters of “well below-trend growth”, leading to higher unemployment and a drawn-out recovery, economists have advised.

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According to Westpac’s chief economist, Bill Evans, Australia will enter a technical recession in 2020 as the mandatory quarantine requirements, restrictions of public gatherings and brutal sell-off in the global equity markets have an impact on the economy.

“Growth through 2020 is now estimated at 1.5 per cent with minus 1 per cent in the first half and 2.5 per cent in the second half,” Mr Evans said.

“The unemployment rate is now forecast to reach 7 per cent by October 2020 (up from the previous estimate of 5.8 per cent-6.0 per cent) due to the larger negative shocks to the labour-intensive sectors such as recreation; tourism; education; renovations and additions; and dwelling construction.”

“This lift in the unemployment rate is despite reducing the participation rate from 66.1 per cent to 65.4 per cent as a discouraged worker effect – that is, as workers respond to a deteriorating labour market, the participation rate is likely to decline,” the economist explained.

The impact of coronavirus on manufacturing and supply lines – as well as business confidence – could see the Asia Pacific thrown into a recession, according to S&P Global Ratings.

“An enormous first-quarter shock in China, shutdowns across the US and Europe, and local virus transmission [guarantee] a deep recession across Asia Pacific,” said S&P APAC chief economist Shaun Roache. 

“Our estimate of permanent income losses is likely to at least double to more than US$400 billion. For credit markets, a key question is how these losses are distributed across sovereigns, firms, banks and households.”

While Moody said, “Our new baseline assumes a pullback in consumption and ongoing disruption to production and supply chains in the first half of 2020, followed by a recovery in the second half. In the short run, this is playing out as both negative supply and demand shocks.”

However, State Street Global Advisors believes talk of global recession is “premature”. 

“Undue panic and fear is the worst recipe in times like this,” said Amlan Roy, head of global macro policy research at State Street. 

“Balance is necessary. Coordinated central bank actions have not been considered effective by the market… Street talk of ‘global recession’ is confused when based on stock market losses and volatility.”

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The coronavirus outbreak is predicted to lead to at least two quarters of “well below-trend growth”, leading to higher unemployment and a drawn-out recovery, economists have advised.

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The Northern Territory government is the latest to announce a stimulus package aimed at insulating its economy.

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Issued by the Northern Territory’s chief minister, Michael Gunner, the jobs rescue and recovery plan aims to protect Territorians from the deep economic impacts of the coronavirus.

“Our plan is all about keeping shops open, cash flowing and Territorians working.”

It comes after the territory first delivered a $2 million tourism resilience plan last month.

“Now we are going further to save jobs, protect businesses and keep the Territory’s economy on the road to recovery,” he outlined.

He considers the best way to protect the economy is to save local jobs, while the government continues to actively consider more options to support local businesses in the short term.

The $65 million jobs rescue and recovery plan will see a freeze to the price of government fees, charges and electricity prices for individuals.

This includes electricity, water and car registration until 1 July 2021.

$30 million will be provided to Territorians looking to make home improvements, with $6,000 up for grabs for home owners and landlords who also contribute $2,000, and $4,000 available to home owners and landlords who are willing to contribute $1,000 to improvement work.

The package also consists of a $20 million Business Improvement Scheme, $5 million business structural adjustment package, and a $5 million Immediate Works grant package.

Mr Gunner said he will do “whatever it takes to save jobs and protect Territorians from the impacts of the coronavirus”.

“We know we can’t stop the virus and we can’t stop the economic hit that’s coming, but we can make sure we’re still standing at the end,” he offered.

Each government that has announced a stimulus package so far has taken a slightly different approach to supporting its local economy.

Tasmania is offering one-off cash payments to individuals and families who are forced into self-isolation. 

NSW announced a $2.3 billion package focused on giving an immediate boost to the health system, cuts to payroll tax for smaller businesses and provisions for capital works and public asset maintenance. 

While in Western Australia, a government freeze on price increases for household fees and charges was a headline aspect of its own package, which will also see energy assistance payments doubled and grant relief provided to small- and medium-sized businesses. 

Queensland is creating a $500 million loan facility, aimed at buffering vulnerable sectors of the state’s economy. 

The state and territory packages come after the federal government’s unveiling of a $20 billion stimulus package, which has since been criticised for being “the wrong shape”. 

At a press conference yesterday, the Prime Minister did indicate a second federal package is in the works – set to be announced once all aspects have been “properly designed”. 

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The Northern Territory government is the latest to announce a stimulus package aimed at insulating its economy.

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