Economy

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced a new cabinet as part of a reshuffle aimed at resetting the gender debate that has ensued as a result of a string of recent scandals.

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Scott Morrison announced Marise Payne’s appointment as the “prime minister for women” in a brief blunder on Monday, with the senior Liberal actually set to take up the position of Minister for Women on top of her existing role as Minister for Foreign Affairs.

Ms Payne will also lead a new taskforce with the primary responsibility to draw together “the many different women who have been given ministerial responsibilities”, Mr Morrison told the media on Monday.

“What I’m simply saying is I’ve given Marise a leadership responsibility among the women in our cabinet and across our ministry to pull it all together in the same way that I do across all areas of the government. So, I think, to be fair, that characterisation I don’t think reflects what I was saying,” Mr Morrison said in defence of the prime ministerial title he briefly gave Ms Payne.

On her agenda, he clarified, will be key issues involving women’s equality, women’s safety, women’s economic security, women’s health and wellbeing.

“This taskforce will be co-chaired by Minister Payne and I. It will comprise all female members of my ministry, and there is quite a number. It will also be joined by the portfolio ministers from what is known as the Central Agency – the Treasurer, the Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister for Finance,” Mr Morrison said.

Further changes to Morrison’s cabinet include the appointment of Michaelia Cash as the next Attorney-General and Minister for Industrial Relations, following Christian Porter’s decision to launch a defamation action against the ABC.

The PM also announced the creation of a new portfolio called Minister for Women’s Safety, with Anne Ruston, who’s also the Social Services Minister, set to take lead. 

Ms Ruston is also joining the leadership team in the government, which consists of the 10 most-senior ministers who meet on a regular basis.  

In other changes, Mr Morrison has also elevated Karen Andrews to the Home Affairs office, as Peter Dutton takes on the role of Defence Minister.

Moreover, Linda Reynolds will remain in cabinet and will take on the portfolio of Government Services and the National Disability Insurance Scheme, while Melissa Price will be returning to cabinet while staying in her Defence Industry portfolio. 

“Those five ministers will join, of course, Minister Payne and Minister Ley, who will continue on in their roles as Foreign Affairs, Minister for Women and Sussan Ley as Minister for the Environment. And as you know, Minister Ley also has the House duty responsibilities for Minister for Women,” the PM said.

“Jane Hume will take on the additional portfolio in the outer Ministry of Women’s Economic Security, and Amanda Stoker will take on the additional role of, she’s currently Assistant Minister to the Attorney-General, she will add to that Assistant Minister to the Minister for Industrial Relations, as well as Assistant Minister to the Minister for Women.

“Minister Payne will effectively become the leader of that group of women,” he reiterated. 

The full federal government cabinet reshuffle is as follows: 

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced a new cabinet as part of a reshuffle aimed at resetting the gender debate that has ensued as a result of a string of recent scandals.

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The Treasury department believes the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be moderate, while job losses will rise when the JobKeeper subsidy ends.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(2586) "

During an economics legislation committee, secretary to the Treasury Dr Steven Kennedy confirmed that between 100,000 to 150,000 Australians will lose their jobs once the JobKeeper wage subsidy ends at the end of March.

However, he noted the numbers needed to be put into context, with up to 400,000 people a month moving into or out of employment.

“In summary, JobKeeper has played a crucial role in supporting the economy and driving the recovery,” Dr Kennedy said.

“In our view, it is appropriate for the program to end as other support measures take effect and to allow the economy to continue adjusting.”

The Treasury pointed out that the current 5.8 per cent unemployment rate as of February outperformed their mid-year budget review, when the anticipated unemployment rate was projected to reach as high as 7.5 per cent.

He also noted that Australia’s unemployment rate will continue to fall in the coming months, confirming it needs to get below 4.5 per cent before meaningful wage increases occur.

However, he said there was a shift in where unemployment needed to be before wages started to grow and inflation pressures started to return.

Dr Kennedy highlighted the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment or NAIRU, which is traditionally impacted by employment scarring during a downturn, is likely to be ‘less pronounced’.

“Following the stronger and faster than expected recovery in the labour market, we are optimistic that the risk of persistent employment impacts (or scarring) from the COVID-19 shock is not as significant as we had previously feared,” he explained.

However, the Treasury secretary pointed out that despite Australia’s rapid recovery, the unemployment rate still needed to fall to grow the economy.

“The extent to which the unemployment rate can be lower before inflation pressure arises will be an ongoing consideration for the government.

“Our current range falls between 4.5 to 5 per cent, compared with 5 per cent previously,” Dr Kennedy said.

Dr Kennedy said the economy has now recovered 85 per cent of the decline from its pre-COVID level of output but expects economic growth to be ‘moderate’ after a strong recovery from the downturn in the second half of last year.

“While the economy is recovering strongly, well supported by fiscal and monetary policy settings, we are well below our pre-pandemic economic growth path and it will take some time to fully recover,” Dr Kennedy concluded.

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The Treasury department believes the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be moderate, while job losses will rise when the JobKeeper subsidy ends.

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Australian travellers will be offered half-price flights following the federal government’s announcement of a $1.2 billion stimulus package to support the domestic tourism sector. 

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(4291) "

The package will offer 800,000 half-priced flights from 1 April with the goal of getting domestic travellers to offset the spending of international visitors.

The half-price ticket program will initially operate to 13 key regions, including the Gold Coast, Cairns, the Whitsundays and Mackay region (Proserpine and Hamilton Island), the Sunshine Coast, Lasseter and Alice Springs, Launceston, Devonport and Burnie, Broome, Avalon, Merimbula, and Kangaroo Island.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the tourism sector did not want to rely on government support forever, with this economic stimulus package bridging the gap before normal trading resumes. 

“This is our ticket to recovery – 800,000 half-price airfares to get Australians travelling and supporting tourism operators, businesses, travel agents and airlines who continue to do it tough through COVID-19, while our international borders remain closed,” Mr Morrison said.

The Prime Minister said the package will help take more tourists to Australian hotels and cafes, while seeing Aussies explore their own backyard. 

“That means more jobs and investment for the tourism and aviation sectors as Australia heads towards winning our fight against COVID-19 and the restrictions that have hurt so many businesses,” Mr Morrison said. 

The stimulus package will also include new international aviation support aimed at sustaining more than 8,000 jobs, as well as support for airport screening costs, and a services assistance support program to relieve the cost burden related to training on-the-ground staff at Australian airports.

As part of the government’s support to the struggling sector, the government also announced an extension to, and expansion of, its SME Loan Guarantee Scheme.

The expansion will see the limit of eligible loans rise from $1 million to $5 million under the scheme, as well as a cost split shift, which will see the government guarantee a higher portion of the loan. The shift would see the government’s 50-50 split with banks shift to an 80-20 split. 

Borrowers will be offered a repayment holiday on both principal and interest for up to 24 months, with loan terms increased from five years to 10 years.

“This SME Recovery Scheme is part of the next step in our plan to help small businesses stand on their own two feet as the economy recovers from COVID-19,” Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said. 

“The expansion and extension of the loans will back businesses that back themselves and will help businesses who continue to do it tough build a bridge to the other side of the crisis and keep their staff employed.”

Despite the latest government package, the Transport Workers Union (TWU) has slammed the government’s withdrawal of JobKeeper, saying thousands of aviation jobs are at risk with the federal government killing wage subsidies that support hurting industries. 

TWU national secretary Michael Kaine said JobKeeper had been a vital lifeline in helping workers pay their bills and support their families, and this is now gone.

“The federal government is ripping away a vital support to the aviation industry at a critical moment. Domestic aviation is poised to make a comeback but it is not there yet. 

“The Australian taxpayer has effectively paid the wages of thousands of aviation workers for almost a year. Stopping that support at the final hurdle makes no sense and amounts to a scandalous waste of hundreds of millions of dollars spent to date,” Mr Kaine concluded.

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Australian travellers will be offered half-price flights following the federal government’s announcement of a $1.2 billion stimulus package to support the domestic tourism sector. 

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Not only have women been at the frontline of Australia’s response to the coronavirus pandemic – nearly four in five workers in health care and social assistance are women – but they’ve borne the brunt of job losses, with female dominated industries other than healthcare among the hardest hit since the pandemic began.

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While the coronavirus has resulted in job losses and isolation for people around the globe, it has disproportionately affected women, with figures worldwide pointing to an uneven distribution of the devastation being wrought by the virus. Unlike the previous recession, which led to greater job losses for men, the current downturn is hurting women’s employment, with ramifications said to be “gigantic” for women’s economic equality.

With over half a million Aussies losing their jobs in April, at the onset of the crisis, a majority (55 per cent) were women. Women’s underemployment ratio – where workers would prefer to work more hours – sat at an unprecedented 15 per cent at the height of the crisis in April, compared with 12.6 per cent for men. Moreover, in Victoria in July, women lost jobs at more than four times the rate of men.

In early August, at the onset of Victoria’s second lockdown, the CEO of Gender Equity Victoria, Tanja Kovac, said, “This is a difficult week for all Victorians, working together to reduce the spread of the virus in our community, but it’s especially tough for women who are losing full-time employment at a higher rate than men across the state (7.3 per cent for women compared to 5.8 per cent for men) and are shouldering more of the care, home education responsibility and risk of violence at home.”

As the Financy Women’s Index points out, the COVID crisis has battered sectors where women’s employment is concentrated, such as accommodation and food services and arts and recreation, giving rise to a high level of anxiety about what it means for the longer-term financial security of women.

And rightly so, because as Financy has found, in just four months of the crisis, four years have been added to the estimated time it will take women to achieve economic equality, blowing out the figure to a staggering 36 years.

By contrast, it is expected to take 32 years for equality to be achieved in unpaid work, 26 years in the gender pay gap, eight years in the underemployment rate and 18 years in superannuation, 21 years in the participation rate and five years for women on boards.

“As the Financy Women’s Index shows, COVID-19 has only exacerbated the divide between men and women in paid and unpaid work,” says Nicki Hutley, partner at Deloitte Access Economics.

“Even if we return to the path of improvement seen before the pandemic, we remain a full generation away from achieving equality.”

As a result, commentators in the media have labelled the current economic downturn as a “Pink” or “She”-recession.

Bianca Hartge-Hazelman, founder of the Financy Women’s Index, agrees with their assessment.

“In my opinion, these are valid concerns because they highlight the current financial disadvantages facing women at a time of weakness,” Ms Hartge-Hazelman says.

“What worries me at this point is where we’re likely to emerge from this rolling pandemic and what it means for women’s progress and the destination of financial equality.”

Women take lion’s share of housework

Disturbingly, during the lockdown, women’s unpaid labour surged, with 56 per cent (versus 38 per cent of men) working from home, often taking on childcare responsibilities.

Senior economist at AMP Capital Diana Mousina opines that while pre-COVID working and non-working women took the lion’s share of housework and child-related responsibilities, the pandemic has just exacerbated these impacts.

“School closures, concern about infecting grandparents or concerns about sending children to childcare have meant roaming children while parents are working from home,” Ms Mousina notes.

“It appears that women have again had the larger share of child-related responsibilities during COVID-19.

“There are some articles flagging academic journal submissions have dropped off more for women than men, showing productivity has been dented potentially from having these other non-work caring responsibilities. Lower productivity growth is an important driver for longer-term wages growth.”

In her personal note published in the Financy Women’s Index in August, Ms Mousina admits that she can personally attest to these productivity challenges.

“The peak of the pandemic in March-April was very tiring, trying to manage television and radio interviews with an energetic two-year-old singing in the background,” she says.

The national report, The Worsening of Australian Women’s Experiences under COVID-19, backs up these findings, revealing that Australian women’s larger care burdens – to children, spouses, and relatives – have resulted in increasing demands for their labour under lockdown, yet much of this work is unrecognised and unpaid.

The study – prepared by Dr Andrea Carson, a La Trobe University political scientist; Associate Professor at the University of Melbourne, Leah Ruppanner; and Dr Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney – revealed that not only did women experience job losses at higher rates than men, while taking on a majority of housework, their health has been severely impacted by the pandemic, with Victorian women particularly vulnerable to anxiety and restless sleep.

“Under the pandemic, Australian women’s work, family and health lives have suffered,” the report reads. 

“Moreover, Victorian women are particularly vulnerable to compounding disadvantage – job loss, business disruption, higher childcare and housework burdens, and more adverse health effects such as sleeplessness and anxiety.”

Women to bare brunt of low wage growth

Worryingly, not only are women staying home for the time being, Financy has flagged a significant exodus by women from the workforce altogether. This, the organisation has warned, could lead to an outcome that will endure beyond the pandemic – lower wages growth.

“With higher unemployment now entrenched in Australia for another four or five years, downwards pressure on wages has been exacerbated. And, if we fail to act to address gender imbalances, women will bear the brunt of this,” says Ms Hutley.

She warns that COVID-19 has only exacerbated the divide between men and women on this front, and that even if we return to the path of improvement seen before the pandemic, we are still a full generation away from achieving equality.

“For many women, caring is a choice not a chore. But for those who wish to pursue a career, there needs to be greater support.

“That means access to affordable childcare, greater flexibility in the workplace, as well as a cultural shift in what is ‘women’s work’,” says Ms Hutley.

“I am encouraged by Millennial attitudes, which seem to be shifting here.”

But The Worsening of Australian Women’s Experiences report also points to an increasing worry among women that their jobs will not only disappear, but that they may never come back.

Namely, nationally, 33 per cent women (compared with 28 per cent of men) are worried they do not have the right skills for the future of work.

But these stark socio-economic inequalities are having far worse consequences, placing the most vulnerable groups of women at an even higher risk of violence.

Domestic violence

According to a recent UN report, emerging data shows that since the outbreak of COVID-19 in March, reports of domestic violence have increased by 30 per cent in France.

In Cyprus and Singapore, helplines have registered an increase in calls of 30 per cent and 33 per cent, respectively. In Argentina, emergency calls for domestic violence cases have increased by 25 per cent since the lockdown on 20 March, while increased cases of domestic violence and demand for emergency shelter have also been reported in Canada, Germany, Spain, the UK and the US.

In Australia, a Women’s Safety New South Wales survey reveals that 45 per cent of frontline workers have reported increased requests for help by survivors, and 86 per cent have reported that the cases received have increased in their level of complexity during the COVID-19 outbreak. 

“At the start of the pandemic it was not too dissimilar to usual but as time went on more women began reaching out for support, especially those with domestic and family violence,” an outer metropolitan domestic and family violence specialist says.

In September, the organisation noted that almost two months since the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in NSW, many victims of domestic and family violence continue to remain at home with their abusers. But, given that the economic and financial impacts of COVID-19 are still ongoing, further concerns about a potential worsening of abuse and ongoing barriers in accessing services and support are being raised.

“Sometimes we are the only contact people have. Families are interstate and they cannot get to them. Services are under strain by the amount of extra calls. Women are unable to leave the home as easily if they have care commitments with vulnerable family members,” a regional domestic and family violence specialist says.

Responding to reports of increased violence, Professor Cathy Humphreys from University of Melbourne published an article in August titled ‘Poverty is trapping women in abusive relationships’.

Ms Humphreys drew attention to a survey of 15,000 Australian women by the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC), which found that two-thirds of those reporting violence had suffered an increase in violent behaviour during the first three months of the pandemic lockdown. A further survey of Victorian family violence workers by researchers at Monash University found a similar pattern of escalating violence.

“As the door closes on women’s employment, the door also can close on leaving an abusive relationship,” Ms Humphreys wrote.

The stark reality, the UN says, is that even in the aftermath of the crisis, violence against women and girls will continue to rise, at the same time as unemployment, financial strains and insecurity increase.

The financial impact of COVID-19 is also expected to affect the capacity of local women’s organisations, to advocate for policy reforms on violence against women and girls and for service provision to survivors of violence over the long term. 

Government response

While the Australian government has been praised for dedicated funding to support women experiencing violence and to organisations providing services, its contribution to boosting women’s participation in the workplace has been slammed by gender equality advocates.

The 2020-21 federal budget has set aside $231 million over four years to address the disproportionate economic affect of the COVID crisis on women.

Handing down the budget in early October, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg acknowledged that women made up the majority of those who lost their jobs during the crisis and promised to bring female workforce participation to its pre-COVID “record high”.

His plan to do so focused on three key areas: new cadetships and apprenticeships for women in science, technology, engineering and mathematics; job creation and entrepreneurialism; and women’s safety at work and at home.

“The 2020 Women’s Economic Security Statement will create more opportunities and choices for women, not just for the recovery but for generations ahead,” Mr Frydenberg said.

However, not everyone agrees. “It seems women have been left out of #Budget2020 even though they have been on the front lines fighting the pandemic & they have lost the most jobs,” tweeted the secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, Sally McManus, at the time.

“The Morrison government is spending half as much on the women’s economic security package as they are on a new computer system for Services Australia,” tweeted Labor senator Jenny McAllister.

And, in the days following the budget, the hashtag #CredibleWomen went viral, born out of frustration expressed by many that the budget failed to deliver for women.

More accurately, the hashtag followed the Prime Minister’s response to an article written by advocate and journalist Georgie Dent, who drew attention to a stark fact – that a rough one-third of 1 per cent of the whole budget has been allocated to women’s economic security.

According to Ms Dent, she subsequently received a call from the PM who said that “no one credible” was making such a complaint, and that “nothing in the budget is gendered”.

Within just a few hours, the hashtag #CredibleWomen was born, gaining over 1,000 angry and credible responses to the budget’s dismissal of woman from both sides of the bench.

What many pointed out, including Ms Dent, is that a budget must be ‘gendered’, meaning it must analyse the discrepancies between men and women, allocating funding where necessary.

Quoting the former sex discrimination commissioner Elizabeth Broderick, Ms Dent told media at the time: “If we don’t actively and intentionally include women, the system will exclude them.”

First published in IPA's Public Accountant magazine

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Australia’s GDP has grown by 3.1 per cent during the December quarter, beating market expectations of a 2.5 per cent increase, official figures show. 

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ABS figures have shown the economy has recovered by 3 per cent of the second consecutive quarter, which has not happened for over 60 years. 

However, despite the rapid recovery, the ABS states Australia’s economic activity remains 1.1 per cent lower than recorded in the 2019 December quarter. 

The economic recovery was largely driven by household spending, which is up by 4.3 per cent, with pre-Christmas sales and Victoria emerging from lockdown strongly contributing to the growth in spending. 

“Despite growing at 10.4 per cent for the quarter, household spending in Victoria was 7.2 per cent below its pre-COVID level. Household spending for the rest of Australia, excluding Victoria, was 1.1 per cent lower than pre-COVID levels,” head of national accounts at the ABS, Michael Smedes, said.

Private investment rose 3.9 per cent and contributed 0.7 percentage points to growth. 

There were rises across both housing and business investment with improved conditions, which coincided with government initiatives, such as HomeBuilder and the expanded instant asset write-off.

Compensation of employees rose 1.5 per cent as employment and hours worked increased with underlying activity in the economy. 

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the national accounts were proof the economic plan was working.

“This is a very encouraging performance from the Australian economy considering the abyss we were staring into at the start of the pandemic.”

“Our economy outperformed all other advanced economies in 2020.”

Mr Frydenberg said that as the government’s support continues to taper off, private investment is stepping up.

“With business and consumer confidence back to pre-pandemic levels, the savings ratio fell from 18 per cent to 12 per cent. 

“While still three times higher than its pre-pandemic levels, consumption will continue to support the Australian economy,” he said. 

Mr Frydenberg said the Australian economy starts 2021 in a strong position. 

“The job is not done, there are challenges ahead, but you wouldn’t want to be in any other country other than Australia as you begin 2021,” he concluded. 

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Australia’s GDP has grown by 3.1 per cent during the December quarter, beating market expectations of a 2.5 per cent increase, official figures show. 

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has made its second call on the official cash rate for this year, following its decision to cut the rate to a record low in November.

Write comment (1 Comment) " ["fulltext"]=> string(3902) "

In line with expectations, the RBA has held the cash rate at a record low of 0.1 of a percentage point. 

“At its meeting today, the board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the three-year Australian government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program,” governor Philip Lowe confirmed. 

The RBA governor reiterated that rates will not be lifted until 2024 at the earliest.

“The board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market.

“The board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest,” Mr Lowe added. 

However, with property prices booming at the fastest rate in 17 years, economists are expecting the bank to intervene earlier than planned. 

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, believes a rate hike will occur in the March quarter 2023. 

“The faster than expected economic recovery will likely see the RBA hike rates earlier than 2024, but probably not until 2023 because it fears that if it moves too early without waiting for a much stronger jobs market and 3.5 per cent or so wages growth, inflation will not be sustained in its 2-3 per cent target range.

“So, for now, it will push back against the back-up in bond yields by stepping up its various bond buying programs. And in the absence of earlier rate hikes, it will move to calm the property market later this year or through next year by working with APRA to once again tighten bank lending standards,” Mr Oliver said.

According to CLSA Premium’s Peter Boehm, the rate hike could materialise even sooner. 

“The RBA has strongly indicated that interest rates will remain at their current levels for the foreseeable future, and there has been no economic data to suggest otherwise.

“We’ll need to see the impact of the end of JobKeeper in March, but if the economic recovery continues on its current recovery trajectory, it is highly likely we’ll see interest rates begin to rise early next year.”

In a document released by the RBA in January, following a Freedom of Information request, the bank predicted that a permanent 1 percentage point (100 basis point reduction) cut in the official rate could increase real housing prices by 30 per cent over three years. 

Mr Lowe has since been questioned about the impact of low interest rates on property prices, but he has maintained that “the RBA does not, and should not, target housing prices”.

Asked about the point at which the RBA will act to prevent the creation of “unsustainable prices”, Mr Lowe reiterated that the issue for the central bank would be if people didn’t borrow sensibly.

“We shouldn’t try and control asset prices.

“What we can have influence on is how much borrowing happens on the back of those rising prices,” Mr Lowe said.

“We would be concerned if there were to be a deterioration in these standards, but there are few signs of this at the moment,” he added.

CoreLogic’s national home value index revealed on Monday that Australian home values surged 2.1 per cent higher in February, the largest month-on-month change since August 2003. 

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has made its second call on the official cash rate for this year, following its decision to cut the rate to a record low in November.

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