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Retailers did not get their Christmas wish, with December sales falling by 0.5 per cent, seasonally adjusted for the month of December, official figures have shown.

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures showed what many economists expected, with consumers spending less or simply bringing spending forward.

The results showed that November is becoming the most important month for sales with a 1.0 per cent bump in retail sales.

“The December fall comes after a strong November, led by Black Friday sales,” said Ben James, director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys. “There were also some effects from bushfires and associated smoke haze apparent in New South Wales data. Specifically, food retailing and cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services were negatively impacted.”

There were falls for department stores (-2.8 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-0.9 per cent), clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-1.5 per cent), food retailing (-0.3 per cent) and household goods retailing (-0.3 per cent). 

These falls were partially offset by a rise in other retailing (0.2 per cent).

According to UBS chief economist George Tharenou, the rate and tax cuts have had little impact on consumer spending, leading to a downgrade in consumption.

“December retail disappointed, with almost all tax and rate cuts repaying debt so far. We downgrade Q4 real consumption to 0.3 per cent,” Mr Tharenou said. 

The results are not likely to improve in the new year, with Valentine’s Day tipped to fall flat in 2020.

According to Finder, only 13 per cent will purchase a gift or flowers for their partner, while one in two couples are ditching the night altogether. 

Kate Browne, personal finance expert at Finder, said that for some Aussies, the “love tax” can put a dampener on Valentine’s Day celebrations.

“They say you can’t put a price on love, but anyone who’s ever tried to buy roses on Valentine’s Day might beg to differ.

“Prices for flowers and hotels tend to skyrocket in the lead-up to Valentine’s Day. A hotel room in the city can be marked up by as much as $100 during this time.

“You can make your partner feel special without blowing the budget. Cook a nice meal at home, have a bubble bath or go for a picnic. This can help to take the financial pressure off,” Ms Browne said.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator"]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2020-02-07 01:26:12" ["slug"]=> string(38) "14550:the-economy-that-stole-christmas" ["parent_slug"]=> string(16) "284:invest-money" ["catslug"]=> string(11) "313:economy" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#3043 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(212) "

Retailers did not get their Christmas wish, with December sales falling by 0.5 per cent, seasonally adjusted for the month of December, official figures have shown.

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While 2020 can expect to see an improvement in Australia’s private business investment based off poor 2019 results, the real pickup will occur from 2021 onwards, according to a new report.

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The latest edition of the Deloitte Access Economics Investment Monitor has reflected on Australia’s marked fall in consumer and business confidence as of late, which has seen businesses respond by retaining profits rather than investing in new opportunities.

Partner and lead author of the report, Stephen Smith, has outlined that while private business investment is forecast to grow through the course of 2020, “the pace of those gains is now set to be more modest than previously expected”, thanks to global uncertainty and domestic confidence levels.

But, there’s optimism ahead, with Mr Smith forecasting private business investment growth at a rate faster than overall real GDP from 2021.

This is thanks to a project investment concentration currently being seen across NSW and Victoria.

The two states are accounting for “almost two-thirds of all definite project investment – the largest share since Investment Monitor began keeping records in March 2001”, he flagged.

“More than one-third of all planned work is located in New South Wales and Victoria, up from a low of less than 20 per cent in late 2014,” the partner continued.

According to Mr Smith, the shift in activity “has been driven by the end of construction at major gas developments in Australia’s north and west, as well as record infrastructure spending by governments”.

Despite these gains, the author did consider the potential impact of “hurdle rates” now and into the future.

Hurdle rates are “the minimum annual return an investor demands before proceeding with a project”.

Mr Smith noted recent calls to lower hurdle rates “to ensure Australian businesses do not miss out on investment opportunities” but did flag that it remains unclear as to whether maintaining hurdle rates at previous levels is constraining Australian investment.

“In Deloitte Access Economics’ view, if hurdle rates are having an impact on investment, their significance is small relative to other factors such as the more moderate pace of economic growth, tighter regulation in some sectors, and a reduced appetite for risk,” he commented.

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While 2020 can expect to see an improvement in Australia’s private business investment based off poor 2019 results, the real pickup will occur from 2021 onwards, according to a new report.

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A leading economist has expressed disagreement with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s pronouncement that the domestic and international economies have reached a gentle turning point.

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During his “the year ahead” speech at the National Press Club, RBA governor Philip Lowe called the coronavirus and the bushfires as short-term economic speed bumps and said Australia is likely to have strong economic growth over the next two years.

“As I have been saying for some time, we are passing through a gentle turning point for the better,” Dr Lowe said.

The Australian economy will expand by 2¾ per cent over 2020 and 3 per cent the following year, while global growth is expected to grow at 2.9 and 3.3 per cent, respectively, Mr Lowe said during his speech. 

The Reserve Bank believes the trend unemployment, which is showing signs of reducing over the past couple of months will continue throughout 2020.

“In terms of the labour market, we are expecting the unemployment rate to remain around its current level for a while yet, before declining below 5 per cent late next year as growth picks up,” Dr Lowe said.

The Reserve Bank said it thinks unemployment will edge lower and wages should grow as the spare capacity in the market shrinks, as should an increase in consumption through larger wages.

“The unemployment rate is also expected to decline, which should give people the confidence to spend. So it is reasonable to expect that things will improve from here, although it is hard to be precise about how much longer this period of balance sheet adjustment will continue,” Dr Lowe explained.

However, Dr Lowe conceded that the drought and coronavirus outbreak could have a negative impact on the economy.

“There is, however, likely to be a noticeable effect across the December quarter last year and the current quarter. While it is still difficult to be precise, we estimate that the effects of the bushfires will reduce GDP growth by around 0.2 percentage points across the two quarters.”

“We are also continuing to assess the effects of the drought on the economy. Farm output declined by 16 per cent between 2017 and 2019, and farm exports fell by 13 per cent.”

“A new uncertainty affecting the outlook is the outbreak of the coronavirus. It is too early to tell what the overall impact will be, but the SARS outbreak in 2003 may provide a guide. On that occasion, there was a sharp slowing in output growth in China for a few months, before a sharp bounce-back as the outbreak was controlled and economic stimulus measures were introduced,” Dr Lowe stated.

Dr Shane Oliver believes, however, that the impact from the coronavirus and the bushfires will be more severe, with the Australian economy likely to see two more cuts before the second half of the year.

“The Reserve Bank has taken advantage of the better economic data we have seen over the last few weeks to leave rates on hold,” said AMP’s chief economist.

“I really see this as the Reserve Bank waiting and seeing. November retail sales strengthened slightly, jobs figures and building approvals for December were encouraging, and inflation numbers weren’t low enough to push the Reserve Bank into another rate cut,” Dr Oliver said.

However, the economist noted the good stacked against the potential green shoots were the bushfire and the coronavirus, which are likely to have a negative impact on the economy.

“In other words, even as interest rates remain on hold, we should be preparing for cuts in the near future as the economy continues to underperform and spare capacity continues in the labour market. Inflationary pressures, judging from recent data around food costs, is expected to remain low,” Dr Oliver explained. 

The economist believes Australia could be heading down the quantitative easing path by the second half of this year.

“Watch out for up to two more rate cuts from the RBA this year, with one coming in in the next month or so, and another soon thereafter, taking the official cash rate down to 0.25 per cent. The next question, which we’ll probably encounter in the second half of the year, is whether the Reserve Bank undertakes a program of quantitative easing and what form that might take,” Dr Oliver concluded.

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A leading economist has expressed disagreement with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s pronouncement that the domestic and international economies have reached a gentle turning point.

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Emerging markets could be poised to replace the United States as the main engine of global growth, an investment management firm has suggested.

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According to Martin Currie, investors will keep a close eye on emerging markets following a year where the US-China trade war saw volatility in the sector.

While acknowledging some of the “green shoots” in negotiations between the US and China, the fund managers believe the United States, through tariffs that affected supply chains and product price inflation, have slid closer to a recession. 

It is likely that the Federal Reserve will continue to provide liquidity to the US dollar, funding markets and cutting interest rates further to stimulate activity, which should boost the economy in 2020.

It is also possible that President Trump might seek a large tax cut for middle-income Americans to garner support for his re-election.

Trade concerns will remain front of mind for investors in 2020, which could shape the industry investors choose, with healthcare, education, cloud computing and clean energy tipped as sources of relative strength within the asset class.

While South Africa, Russia and Turkey are all expected to rebound after years of subdued growth, growth has remained intact in other emerging markets and should expand further on the back of widespread interest rate cuts. That’s particularly true in India, which is introducing far-reaching labour reform policies that could make the country more attractive to foreign investors. 

“Enactment of these policies is not guaranteed, but they could be attractive for global manufacturers while also reducing costs for local manufacturers and creating the right incentives for smaller companies to scale up,” Martin Currie wrote. 

“All of this would enable more workers to enter the formal economy.”

But in other areas, including Latin America, populism and ideological divisions could make 2020 a challenging year. 

“The incoming government in Argentina is stepping into the midst of a currency crisis and facing demands for wealth distribution from a disillusioned populace,” Martin Currie wrote. 

“Dissatisfaction with the level of wealth distribution was also behind recent riots in Chile and has forced the government to back down on proposed price hikes in public services. On a more positive note, Brazil looks well placed to drive through pension reform, a keystone in building future confidence in the country’s public finances,” Martin Currie concluded.

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Emerging markets could be poised to replace the United States as the main engine of global growth, an investment management firm has suggested.

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The Reserve Bank’s communication style is part of the problem plaguing Australia’s economy at present, a new report has flagged, despite the downturn’s measurable impact able to be attributed to other factors such as drought and the recent housing downturn.

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According to Deloitte’s Access Economics Business Outlook for the last quarter of 2019, there are three major threats affecting Australia’s economy. 

For a little while, “Australia has been battling the dual demons of drought and housing-related negatives, including cautious consumers and a downturn in housing construction”, noted the Business Outlook’s lead author, Chris Richardson. 

But now there’s a third threat, according to Mr Richardson, which he highlighted as “cratered confidence among consumers and business”.

“Our crumbling confidence has a few causes (and this summer’s bushfires don’t help), but the Reserve Bank hasn’t covered itself in glory as it communicates with the public.”

He said that has left confidence “worse than the economy itself, which in turn risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy”. 

And while there are positives, Mr Richardson countered – such as tax cuts, lower interest rates, a lower Australian dollar and a rebound in housing prices – it does leave Australia locked in to slow growth. 

Despite this, “it doesn’t spell the disaster that the punters are fearing”, according to the consultancy firm’s partner. 

“We are on course to keep muddling through the impacts of drought, housing-related weakness and scared consumers,” he observed.

As a result, “the nation’s growth won’t lift all that much from today’s decade low, and we don’t expect unemployment to drop or wages to accelerate through 2020: we’ll be comfortably trading water rather than roaring into recovery”. 

The partner went on to flag that Australians should expect further rate cuts in the coming year. 

“Interest rates are really low,” Mr Richardson observed, “and that’s where they’re set to stay for some time”. 

“Inflation is larger harder to generate than it used to be,” he commented.

“That means interest rates are being set at levels aimed to get inflation going again.”

Mr Richardson explained how the Reserve Bank wants the Feds to “pitch in and help, but, absent a bigger crisis, that doesn’t look likely”. 

“So, the Reserve will cut rates twice more, partly as the economy is still weak, but mostly because inflation is so stubborn.”

Despite this, he said he expects the RBA not to go down the quantitative easing route to restart the economy, calling it “a big step”. 

“And, like Hotel California, it’s hard to leave,” he continued. 

Since the report’s release, Labor MP and shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers has attacked the government’s management of the economy over the past seven years. 

nestegg has also delved into the surplus account expectations for the coming year, as outlined by the report. 

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator"]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2020-01-20 01:29:51" ["slug"]=> string(63) "14448:the-australian-economy-s-self-fulfilling-prophecy-problem" ["parent_slug"]=> string(16) "284:invest-money" ["catslug"]=> string(11) "313:economy" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#3051 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(272) "

The Reserve Bank’s communication style is part of the problem plaguing Australia’s economy at present, a new report has flagged, despite the downturn’s measurable impact able to be attributed to other factors such as drought and the recent housing downturn.

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SHADOW TREASURER RESPONDS: Jim Chalmers MP has slammed the federal government’s management of the Australian economy in response to today’s Deloitte economic forecast, saying Australians are paying for the “ineptitude and inaction of a do-nothing Morrison government”. 

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The statement from Mr Chalmers came after the release of the report, which is forecasting below-trend growth of 2 per cent in 2019-20 and 2.4 per cent in 2020-21 – well below the government’s mid-year budget forecasts. 

With Deloitte having considered that “the nation’s growth won’t lift all that much from today’s decade low”, it has predicted that in turn, unemployment levels won’t drop and wages won’t improve through 2020. 

“The economy was already floundering under Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg before the fires hit, and now this new report says things won’t get much better this year for Australian workers and families,” the MP commented. 

According to Mr Chalmers, “Weak economic growth like we are seeing is the inevitable consequence of a government with a political strategy but not an economic plan.”

“This is what happens when a Liberal government in its seventh year spends all its time spinning, pork-barrelling and playing politics instead of actually coming up with a plan to meet the big challenges in the economy.”

nestegg has reported on the major findings from Deloitte here.

The response from the MP comes after the report likened the government’s account surplus ideology to dating Miley Cyrus.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator"]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2020-01-20 01:29:17" ["slug"]=> string(80) "14449:govt-accused-of-spinning-pork-barrelling-and-playing-politics-with-economy" ["parent_slug"]=> string(16) "284:invest-money" ["catslug"]=> string(11) "313:economy" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#3053 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(287) "

SHADOW TREASURER RESPONDS: Jim Chalmers MP has slammed the federal government’s management of the Australian economy in response to today’s Deloitte economic forecast, saying Australians are paying for the “ineptitude and inaction of a do-nothing Morrison government”. 

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