Economy

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The Federal Reserve's expected decision to maintain US interest rates at a two-decade high at its sixth consecutive meeting on Wednesday is set to put pressure on emerging market central banks to hike their own rates, with significant implications for investors globally, according to Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group.

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"The Fed is expected to hold rates at the two-decade high that was first implemented last July, and markets are increasingly pessimistic about the likelihood of rate cuts this year," Green said.

"This puts the squeeze on emerging-market central banks – including countries like South Africa, India and Mexico - to hike their own rates in order to address currency depreciation, inflationary pressures, capital flight risks, and external debt servicing concerns."

Should policymakers move to raise rates in emerging economies, global investors could be impacted, with higher yields on government bonds issued by these countries likely to attract foreign investors seeking higher returns.

"Higher interest rates in emerging markets can lead to higher yields on government bonds issued by these countries. This is likely to attract foreign investors seeking higher returns, resulting in increased demand for emerging-market bonds," Green noted.

"In turn, higher yields may also lead to capital outflows from developed markets as investors reallocate their portfolios to take advantage of better returns in emerging-market bonds."

Equity markets in those countries and beyond could also be affected, with sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as financials and utilities, likely to benefit from higher rates due to increased profitability, while those that rely on debt financing, such as real estate and consumer discretionary, will face challenges as borrowing costs rise.

Higher interest rates in emerging markets will also attract foreign capital inflows, leading to appreciation in the local currency, which affects currency pairs globally as changes in exchange rates between emerging-market currencies and major currencies like the US dollar can impact trade flows, corporate earnings, and cross-border investments.

"US rates are set to be held steady again. Focus will be on Powell's speech after the announcement," Green said.

"We expect a hawkish tone and this will add pressure to the emerging-markets central banks to raise rates."

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The Federal Reserve's expected decision to maintain US interest rates at a two-decade high at its sixth consecutive meeting on Wednesday is set to put pressure on emerging market central banks to hike their own rates, with significant implications for investors globally, according to Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group.

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The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its May meeting and signaled that rates are likely to stay higher for longer given elevated inflation in the first quarter, while also announcing a tapering of its quantitative tightening (QT) program.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(1957) "

In its statement, the Fed recognized the lack of progress on inflation, repeating that it "does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent."

The Fed also announced that it will slow the reduction of its Treasury holdings starting in June, reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasuries from $60 billion to $25 billion.

During the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed less confidence about the near-term rate outlook, omitting his prior references to the "peak for this tightening cycle" and to rate cuts "at some point this year", and suggested that rates will likely stay higher for longer.

"It is likely that gaining such greater confidence will take longer than previously expected. We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate as long as appropriate," Powell said.

However, Powell's comments were still viewed as dovish after he insisted that policy is restrictive and refused to put rate hikes on the table, possibly for fear of causing an excessive further tightening in financial conditions.

Barclays Research retains its baseline call that the Fed will deliver just one 25 basis point rate cut this year, in September at the soonest, but if inflation comes in stronger than expected, the first rate cut could be postponed to December.

For 2025, Barclays continues to expect four rate cuts, with the Fed normalizing its rates as inflation continues to move gradually toward the 2% target and activity grows along its trend.

The bank also noted that the reduction in the Treasury cap for QT was larger than expected, but the market's initial reaction after the FOMC announcement seems a bit exaggerated given the Fed will be reinvesting an additional $35 billion this year across the entire maturity spectrum.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2024-05-01 23:09:44" ["slug"]=> string(78) "18572:fed-keeps-rates-steady-signals-higher-for-longer-amid-elevated-inflation" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8640 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

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The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its May meeting and signaled that rates are likely to stay higher for longer given elevated inflation in the first quarter, while also announcing a tapering of its quantitative tightening (QT) program.

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The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that inflation rose 3.4% in the 12 months to February 2024, unchanged from the previous two months, according to the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA).

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REIA President Leanne Pilkington noted that while the February figure remained steady, monthly figures are less reliable than quarterly data, as recently pointed out by the Treasurer. "The downward trend in inflation is undeniable, with monthly figures not having increased since the peak of 8.4% in December 2022," Ms Pilkington said.

The annual movement for the monthly CPI, excluding volatile items such as fruit and vegetables, automotive fuel, and holiday travel and accommodation, rose 3.9% in February, down from 4.1% in January and showing decreases every month since March last year.

Ms Pilkington said the latest CPI data provides an important piece in the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision-making puzzle, as the central bank relies on data and evolving risk assessments while paying close attention to domestic and overseas developments. Other key data points, including retail trade, household spending, unemployment, and the March quarter CPI, will be available before the RBA's next meeting in early May.

The most significant contributors to the annual increase in the February CPI were housing (up 4.6%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (up 3.6%), alcohol and tobacco (up 6.1%), and insurance and financial services (up 8.4%). Rents increased by 7.6% in the 12 months to February, up from 7.4% in the year to January.

"The 13 rate hikes by the RBA since May 2022 are not only stemming the inflation tide but also slowing the economy," Ms Pilkington said. "As the pieces of RBA's jigsaw fall into place, the expectation is that the RBA will provide home buyers some interest rate relief later this year."

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The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that inflation rose 3.4% in the 12 months to February 2024, unchanged from the previous two months, according to the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA).

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New research from e61 Institute has found that while current unemployment measures may not capture all job seekers, broader definitions that include passive job searchers do not provide better indicators of the economic cycle.

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The study, titled "Searching Hard or Hardly Searching: How Should We Measure Unemployment?", compares four different definitions of unemployment and maps them against one another. It finds that unemployment rates would be significantly higher across all age groups if individuals who search for work "passively", such as sending off job applications without actively browsing online, were included. This increase is more pronounced for young Australians, with the unemployment rate rising by about two percentage points.

However, the research suggests that even though the measured unemployment rate would be higher under this broader definition, it does not necessarily mean the Reserve Bank would need to change its approach to monetary policy.

Zachary Hayward, pre-doctoral economist at the e61 Institute and author of the study, said, "The reason this definition may matter for Reserve Bank policy is if the new measure aligned more closely with the economic cycle. If it did, policy responses that ignored these measures would respond slowly to rising or falling inflation – exacerbating cost of living shocks during booms and generating unnecessary job loss during downturns."

The data shows that the new unemployment measure moves in a very similar way to the standard definition over the economic cycle, with only slightly wider gaps during the Global Financial Crisis and the end of the mining boom. "Ultimately, it adds little to no useful information about the economic cycle," Hayward said.

e61 CEO Michael Brennan noted that while it's always good to consider what the current definition might miss, "the overriding issue is what information the measure conveys, and the current ABS definition does a good job of shedding light on the strength of the labour market and the economic cycle."

The study highlights that while the current measure of unemployment may not capture all job seekers, it remains largely appropriate for assessing monetary policy and the economic cycle. However, it also underscores that at any given time, there are more individuals searching for work than headline figures suggest, indicating that barriers to labour market entry affect more people than commonly assumed.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2024-04-03 06:45:03" ["slug"]=> string(105) "18545:including-passive-job-seekers-in-unemployment-measure-doesnt-impact-economic-cycle-view-study-finds" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8662 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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New research from e61 Institute has found that while current unemployment measures may not capture all job seekers, broader definitions that include passive job searchers do not provide better indicators of the economic cycle.

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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(121) "/invest-money/economy/including-passive-job-seekers-in-unemployment-measure-doesnt-impact-economic-cycle-view-study-finds" ["image"]=> string(113) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1712126535/pexels-tim-gouw-52608_xeumrb.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(101) "Including passive job seekers in unemployment measure doesn't impact economic cycle view, study finds" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#8153 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18539) ["title"]=> string(72) "Survey reveals heightened job security concerns among IT workers in 2024" ["alias"]=> string(72) "survey-reveals-heightened-job-security-concerns-among-it-workers-in-2024" ["introtext"]=> string(202) "

A recent survey conducted by Authority Hacker has revealed that 89.66% of IT workers in the United States have increased concerns about job loss in 2024.

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The survey was prompted by the recent wave of layoffs across industries, particularly in the tech sector, and the uncertainty surrounding the global economy.

According to Layoffs.fyi, there have been more than 296,000 tech layoffs since 2023, with 33,000 occurring in the first five weeks of 2024. Large companies such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Spotify have made headlines for reducing their workforce by up to 25%. While excessive hiring during the pandemic has been cited as one of the reasons for the layoffs, the rapid advancements in AI technology have also contributed to the trend.

The survey found that 54.58% of full-time US workers across all industries have increased concerns about job loss. However, the levels of job insecurity are significantly higher in tech-related industries, with Information Services and Data (89.66%) and Software (74.42%) being the most concerned sectors.

The survey also revealed that executives, particularly C-level executives (85%) and Directors (78.38%), express the highest levels of concern about job loss. Workers in larger companies (500-1000 employees) also feel particularly vulnerable (74.33%), in contrast to self-employed workers (42.47%) and those in smaller companies (below 25 employees, 45.38%).

AI's impact on job security is a major concern for many respondents, with 54.58% anticipating that it will affect their job security within the next five years. Sectors that rely heavily on computer use, such as Software (67.44%), Finance (67.57%), and Human Resources (64.29%), express high levels of concern, while people in sectors that involve more human-to-human interaction, such as education (43.04%) and real estate (44.68%), are least concerned.

The survey also found that 29.17% of full-time tech workers don't have enough savings to support them until they find a new job if faced with job loss. With an estimated 3 million U.S. residents working in tech, this constitutes almost a million people.

While the proliferation of AI is set to disrupt many jobs, it is also expected to create new opportunities. Experts suggest that workers who learn to use AI now may have an easier time taking advantage of these new positions. Upskilling in AI, honing soft skills, building strong relationships with colleagues, and cultivating unique expertise are some of the ways workers can safeguard against unemployment in the face of AI advancement.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2024-03-20 23:56:20" ["slug"]=> string(78) "18539:survey-reveals-heightened-job-security-concerns-among-it-workers-in-2024" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8673 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(131) "

• No

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A recent survey conducted by Authority Hacker has revealed that 89.66% of IT workers in the United States have increased concerns about job loss in 2024.

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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(94) "/invest-money/economy/survey-reveals-heightened-job-security-concerns-among-it-workers-in-2024" ["image"]=> string(164) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1710978961/Survey_reveals_heightened_job_security_concerns_among_IT_workers_in_2024_ce4pk1.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(72) "Survey reveals heightened job security concerns among IT workers in 2024" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#8152 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18519) ["title"]=> string(103) "Australian founders adapt to the challenging fundraising environment with optimism and strategic shifts" ["alias"]=> string(103) "australian-founders-adapt-to-the-challenging-fundraising-environment-with-optimism-and-strategic-shifts" ["introtext"]=> string(160) "

The landscape for start-up funding in Australia has been increasingly challenging, but this has not dampened the spirit of the country's entrepreneurs.

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According to a recent survey conducted by Herbert Smith Freehills (HSF), Australian start-up founders are facing the difficult fundraising environment with a mix of resilience and strategic adjustment, while still nurturing hopes for higher valuations and successful capital raises in the near future.

The survey, which marks the second annual exploration of sentiments among start-up founders by HSF, uncovered that a significant 73% of founders perceive the current fundraising environment to be more challenging compared to 2022. Furthermore, a notable 84% acknowledged that these conditions are influencing their business strategies. Despite these challenges, a majority remain hopeful, with 91% recognising the need for start-ups to achieve profitability sooner due to market conditions. Moreover, 74% of the respondents are optimistic about raising capital in the next 12 months, and 60% believe their next raise will surpass their last post-money valuation.

Elizabeth Henderson, HSF partner and Co-Head of Venture Capital in Australia, shared insights into how founders are navigating these testing times. "A couple of years into the new capital fundraising climate for start-ups, founders are more accepting of the economic challenges that they are facing, and more are pursuing a path to profitability over growth, funded by new capital," she explained.

The survey also highlighted that only 25% of the companies are considering a liquidity event in the next 12 months, mirroring a broader preference for achieving profitability over seeking exits. Claire Thompson, Co-Head of Venture Capital in Australia at HSF, noted that the trend of bridging rounds preceding series or priced rounds is becoming less common among founders. Only 38% of respondents indicated their companies would consider such rounds before their next major funding milestone.

This pragmatic approach to funding is also reflected in founders' tempered expectations regarding valuations. While a majority are hopeful about surpassing their last post-money valuation in their next round, more than a third of respondents expressed uncertainty or anticipation of a down round.

Clayton James, another HSF partner, hypothesised that 2024 might see a rise in secondary transactions, especially among profitable start-ups, as early investors and employees look for liquidity and new investors seek entry points into successful companies. James highlighted recent deals involving firms like Canva and Employment Hero as evidence of a strong interest in these types of transactions.

Finally, while acknowledging the ongoing challenges, the survey revealed an enduring optimism among Australian start-up founders. Sixty-two percent of respondents expressed a positive outlook on the long-term prospects for start-ups in the nation, suggesting a collective confidence that persists despite the current fundraising conditions.

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The landscape for start-up funding in Australia has been increasingly challenging, but this has not dampened the spirit of the country's entrepreneurs.

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