Economy

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Over 80 CEOs have put their names to a letter calling on Australia’s politicians to stop arguing and start acting on putting an end to lockdowns.

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The Business Council of Australia (BCA) has published an open letter signed by the CEOs of over 80 major Australian companies, calling on state and federal governments to work together to chart a path out of lockdown.

“The national cabinet has agreed to a roadmap which provides a path out of lockdowns, with an easing of restrictions from 70 per cent and 80 per cent vaccination rates. We need to stay the course,” the letter recommended.

Citing the effectiveness of lockdowns in suppressing the spread of the COVID-19 virus, the letter said that they are encouraged by the building momentum in the vaccine program, but warned that ongoing lockdowns may have hidden and long-lasting impacts.

“We have seen how effectively this country can come together over the past 18 months — with state and federal governments working alongside communities and businesses,” the letter said.

Drawing attention to “the impact of lockdowns on our people, on our customers, on our small business suppliers, and on communities and families right across the country”, the signatories called for an end to lockdowns.

“As vaccination rates increase, it will become necessary to open up society and live with the virus, in the same way that other countries have done,” the letter said.

The open letter was co-signed by the CEOs of over 80 major businesses, ranging from financial institutions like the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac and ANZ to brands like Telstra, Optus, Uber and Accenture.

The CEOs of Fujitsu, Hertz, Suncorp, Woolworths, Coles, AGL and ASX were also among the companies who put their name on the letter.

Representing businesses that employ almost 1 million Australians, the group called on Australia’s political class to work together to implement the National Plan and “chart a path out of the current lockdowns”.

“Providing a light at the end of the tunnel will encourage more Australians to get vaccinated. We need to give people something to hope for, something to look forward to, something to plan around, and to be confident about their futures,” the letter said.

The letter comes after weeks of mixed messaging from Australia’s political leaders, with NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian telegraphing that the state may soon begin easing restrictions despite rising case numbers.

“Every state is going to have to accept that you cannot live in a bubble forever,” she said.

To date, Ms Berejiklian has insisted that any potential easing of restrictions aligns with the modelling from the Doherty Institute, which the National Plan uses as a basis.

Other state leaders from Victoria and Western Australia have disagreed, with WA Premier Mark McGowan warning that loosening the state’s stringent border restrictions while both NSW cases remained high and Western Australia’s vaccination remained low would be akin to deliberately letting the virus into the state.

“By knowingly letting the virus in, it would mean we’d have hundreds of people die, have to wind back our local freedoms, introduce restrictions and shut down large parts of our economy,” Premier McGowan said.

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Over 80 CEOs have put their names to a letter calling on Australia’s politicians to stop arguing and start acting on putting an end to lockdowns.

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The economy showed signs of growth throughout the June quarter, but economists widely predict it will be short-lived, as lockdown restrictions continue across its two major capitals, official figures have revealed.

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Stats released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed gross domestic product (GDP) lifted by 0.7 of a percentage point in the three months to June, pulling the country out of a recession which would be realised at the end of the September quarter, during which GDP is widely expected to contract between 2 per cent and 4.5 per cent this quarter.

June’s slight economic boost also propelled Australia’s overall GDP growth for 2020–2021 to 1.4 per cent.

But while the ABS has applauded the latest economic figures as generally positive, it warned that they preceded much of the nation’s current lockdown measures which have had a widespread impact on the economy.

Speaking to the nation on Wednesday, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said Australia’s economy is 1.6 per cent above pre-pandemic levels and a strong rebound is expected despite these recent disruptions.

“The Australian economy’s fundamentals are sound, the Australian economy is resilient, and the Australian economy will bounce back once restrictions are eased,” the Treasurer said.

The Treasurer noted vaccinations remain key, with the economy said to be helped by the 80 per cent vaccination target.

“With strong progress on the vaccine rollout, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Those national accounts provide confidence that our recovery will get back underway once restrictions are eased,” he continued.

Mr Frydenberg noted that while he believes Australia will avoid a technical double-dip recession, today’s figures do not change the fact that the economy has tough times ahead.

GDP is the total market value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders, made up of business, government and consumer spending and net exports, with the ABS showing all three categories recorded strong signs of growth in June.

Private demand contributed 1.0 percentage point to growth, while household spending added 1.1 per cent and contributed 0.6 of a percentage point to the overall GDP lift.

Public demand contributed 0.7 of a percentage point to growth, driven by continued investments in state and local infrastructure projects.

Government spending rose by 1.3 per cent, driven by health-related expenditure, while the gross value added (GVA) for the health industry rose by 2.0 per cent.

Net exports were a substantial drag on growth (-1 percentage point), with a fall in mining export volumes compounded by a growth in imports.

However, economists fear a mild lift in the GDP for the June quarter will not be enough to stem the losses forecast for the September quarter.

If the September quarter (which includes the months of July, August and September) produces a significantly negative GDP figure, Australia could possibly face a double-dip technical recession based on the December quarter.

VanEck Australia’s head of investment and capital markets, Russel Chester, is predicting Australia is still likely to go into a recession despite today’s figures.

“We will likely fall into a technical recession in the second half of the year, with almost half of Australia’s population subject to continuing stay-at-home orders, not being able to spend or move around. Consumption accounts for the majority of national GDP, so GDP will take a major hit over the remainder of the year,” he said.

He pointed to even stronger vaccination rates not necessarily leading to an increase in the economy opening up fully, with social distancing rules likely to limit growth.

“This will further exacerbate the inequality in the population between those working in different industries, with some like those in professional services and healthcare continuing to earn good incomes, while those in hospitality, retail and entertainment industries suffering more, losing jobs and income,” Mr Chester said.

Reaffirming this, CreditorWatch chief economist Harley Dale pointed out today’s results might be a mirage to tougher times ahead.

“GDP for the June 2021 quarter would look spectacular under normal circumstances. However, mid-year 2020 was ugly, as all businesses know, so the latest annual result was always going to look flattering,” Mr Dale said.

“With Victoria on its seventh lockdown and NSW — the engine room of Australia’s economy — also under lock and key, the adverse impacts of this situation will reverberate throughout the entire nation.”

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The economy showed signs of growth throughout the June quarter, but economists widely predict it will be short-lived, as lockdown restrictions continue across its two major capitals, official figures have revealed.

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Concerns over future spending raised by the government’s recent intergenerational reports fail to scrutinise the growth and distribution of Australia’s overall wealth, experts say.

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A new report by The Australia Institute has criticised the government’s latest intergenerational report, arguing that it overlooks the impact that capital gains will have on the wealth of Australians over time.

“It seemed bizarre that the government could talk about such things as fiscal ‘burdens’ and the call on taxpayers without mentioning $1.7 trillion in capital gains and, more importantly, who received that $1.7 trillion,” the report said.

Since the majority of wealth in Australia is currently held by those over the age of 55, David Richardson, senior research fellow at The Australia Institute, argued that it is older Australians who will benefit the most.

“In the coming decades, not only is the wealth of Australians likely to grow rapidly, but that wealth will almost certainly flow primarily to those aged over 55,” he said.

Mr Richardson admitted that rapid increases in wealth, like the ones Australia is expected to have over the next decade, are “a good problem to have”, but he warned that unless we reform our tax system, wealth generation is likely to have significant side effects.

“The benefits of growing wealth will come with significant costs in the form of inequality and economic inefficiency,” he warned.

Mr Richardson said that because Australia currently lacks in wealth taxes and collects relatively little from capital gains, government revenues have failed to keep up with the growing wealth of Australians.

As this dynamic continues, he foretold of the “enormous problems associated” with unequal distribution of higher and higher wealth holdings.

Mr Richardson said it was remarkable that the last five intergenerational reports produced by the Treasury had failed to examine or consider the rate of wealth growth in Australia and how it is distributed.

“How can you ask about intergenerational equity without considering wealth and the way it is, or isn’t, taxed?” the report said.

Mr Richardson argued that GDP alone is not a good measure of Australia’s capacity to pay for government services, and that including capital gains in income measures quickly “dispels” any concern about future fiscal burdens.

The report said that by 2060, the federal government’s current self-imposed spending cap of 23.9 per cent of GDP might be as low as 10.4 per cent once capital gains are factored in.

“The Australian government may keep choosing not to tax wealth and capital gains of our wealthiest people as thoroughly as it taxes the incomes of ordinary workers. However, such choices make it hard to argue that Australia ‘can’t afford’ to provide healthcare in the years to come to what will clearly be the wealthiest generation Australia has ever known,” he said.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator"]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2021-08-31 00:19:57" ["slug"]=> string(59) "17297:igr-criticised-for-failing-to-factor-in-capital-gains" ["parent_slug"]=> string(16) "284:invest-money" ["catslug"]=> string(11) "313:economy" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#6418 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(433) "

Concerns over future spending raised by the government’s recent intergenerational reports fail to scrutinise the growth and distribution of Australia’s overall wealth, experts say.

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A report on Australia’s payment processing systems has advocated for the introduction of new powers that would allow the federal Treasurer to influence tech giants like Apple and Google in the name of national interest.

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A formal review of Australia’s payment systems infrastructure has called for the Treasury to take on a more active leadership role within the sector.

Concluding that payments now perform a vital role in enabling customers and businesses to engage with Australia’s digital economy, the report said that actors and regulators in the payments system needed to be better aligned in order to ensure better outcomes.

All in all, the report made 15 recommendations designed to improve alignment and outcomes in the sector.

The most significant of these was the enshrining of a greater role for the federal Treasury in the payments ecosystem, and the introduction of new powers for the current federal Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg.

“Given the increased complexity of payments issues and the acceleration of financial innovation, enhanced leadership, vision and oversight is needed in the payments ecosystem,” the report said.

As part of its newly expanded role in Australia’s payment ecosystem, the report said that the Treasury needed to be “strengthened with the necessary skills, capabilities and resources to perform this function effectively”.

The most significant detail here is a proposed power to designate payments systems in situations where the Treasurer deems that it is in the national interest to do so.

Under the current rules, this power rests with the Reserve Bank of Australia.

However, the report noted that the exercise of the RBA’s designation power is confined to issues that are in the “public interest” as they are defined under the current Payment Systems Act.

“Where a designation is required in the national interest for reasons beyond financial stability, efficiency or competition, the decision to designate should be vested in the Treasurer,” the report said.

This power would be fairly broad, encompassing the ability to direct regulators and give binding instructions to both operators and participants within Australia’s payments systems.

On paper, this power could be used to designate digital wallet providers like Apple and Google as payment systems. Then, at this point, they would become subject to existing payment system regulations and directions from the federal Treasurer.

According to the report, “the purpose of this direction power is to provide the flexibility needed to address the challenges of the dynamic future of Australia’s payment ecosystem with strong governance around its use”.

The report also called on the government to develop a strategic plan for the sector in collaboration with industry, regulators and representatives of businesses and consumer interests.

“The plan should provide certainty on policy priorities and strategic directions for the payments ecosystem, while being adaptable to future challenges and opportunities,” the report said.

To help with the development of this strategic plan, the report recommended the Treasury delegate part of their expanded remit to a new Payments Industry Convener.

This figure would collaborate with stakeholders to identify key issues, co-ordinate responses and provide strategic advice to the Treasury on payment-related matters.

Alongside this strategic plan, the report also recommended additional education around payments for consumers and business, a better alignment of both industry standards and regulatory approaches and the introduction of a single-tiered payments licensing framework.

“Applicants should be able to apply for this payments licence solely through ASIC, without the need to go through multiple regulators,” the report said.

Looking forward, the report said that future considerations should be given to how Australia’s payments system interacts with emerging developments in the space like digital wallets, cryptocurrencies, CBDCs and buy now, pay later apps.

Following the release of the report, federal Minister for Superannuation, Financial Services and the Digital Economy, Jane Hume, emphasised that the payments ecosystem is in the midst of rapid change.

“New technology, business models and participants are transforming the old payments system. This is providing increased convenience and opportunities but also giving rise to greater complexity and new risks,” she said.

In a joint statement with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, Ms Hume said that promoting a more innovative and robust payments environment “is part of the Morrison government’s plan to build a more competitive and productive economy as we recover from the COVID‑19 crisis”.

“The government will carefully consider the recommendations and observations made in the review,” she said. 

A statement from the federal Treasury on the report confirmed that a consultation on the recommendations will be conducted before the department releases an official response later this year.

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A report on Australia’s payment processing systems has advocated for the introduction of new powers that would allow the federal Treasurer to influence tech giants like Apple and Google in the name of national interest.

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Australia could avoid entering a double-dip recession even with growing COVID-19 cases leading to prolonged lockdowns, with most of the economic damage already being done, an economist has revealed.

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According to BetaShare’s chief economist, David Bassanese, there’s a strong possibility that Australia will in fact avoid a recession.

With a recession defined as two negative quarters of GDP in a row, Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg pointed out that the fourth quarter will be critical to Australia’s economic future.

“My expectation is that the September quarter will be negative,” Mr Frydenberg said.

“But with respect to the December quarter, that does depend to a large extent on how successful New South Wales, our largest state economy, is in getting on top of this virus.”

While the government sees the need for jabs in arms for life to return to normal, Mr Bassanese believes Australia can in fact avoid a recession even if lockdowns remain.

“So, even in a worst-case scenario where current lockdowns are extended beyond September, we might still narrowly avoid a technical recession, if only because most of the decline in activity would have already taken place,” he noted.

Under his assumptions, the June quarter will be positive, off the back of strong wages, retail sales and construction only dipping slightly.

“The good news is that, so far at least, negative June quarter growth next week seems unlikely,” the economist said.

“Although there are still a few building blocks to come early next week, such as inventories and net exports, the indicators so far available suggest a positive growth outcome.”

However, NAB disagrees with a statement earlier this month pointing to the real possibility that Australia is already in recession.

NAB initially pencilled in a 0.4 of a percentage point lift in GDP over the three months to 30 June, which included a small detraction of 0.2 of a percentage point due to Australia’s balance of trade.

But that detraction could in fact be between 1.0 and 1.9 percentage points, NAB director of economics and markets Tapas Strickland said, “which, if not made up elsewhere, could see Q2 GDP flat or even potentially negative”.

“NAB is currently characterising it as a risk given we haven’t seen many other GDP partials to date. With Q3 already likely to be deeply negative, it does raise the potential for the ‘R’ word even before we get to Q4.”

However, Mr Bassanese disagrees, stating that only the September quarter will be negative, with figures due in a few days expected to show Australia has avoided a negative June quarter.

“While the recent extensions of the NSW and Victorian lockdowns add to the risk of a negative Q4 outcome, the brunt of the lockdown-related step down in GDP took will be concentrated in the current September quarter, suggesting the level of GDP need not necessarily decline further in Q4,” he said.

However, Mr Bassanese conceded the need for a high vaccination rate remains, with Australia unlikely to reopen before the country hits its 70 to 80 per cent vaccine targets.

“Assuming the vaccine rollout proceeds apace, moreover, there is a good chance for some bounce-back in activity from late September/early October — as those fully vaccinated at least are granted greater freedoms,” he concluded.

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Australia could avoid entering a double-dip recession even with growing COVID-19 cases leading to prolonged lockdowns, with most of the economic damage already being done, an economist has revealed.

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The federal government is looking to bring ASIC on-side as part of its economic recovery agenda. 

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As the conversation about the COVID-19 recovery churns on, the Morrison government has issued a Statement of Expectations outlining priorities for the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).

“A strong and effective ASIC is essential for the efficient operation of Australia’s financial and corporate sectors for the benefit of households and businesses,” said federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.

The last time the federal government issued this sort of statement to ASIC was in April 2018.

Mr Frydenberg said the newly issued statement makes it clear that the government expects ASIC to contribute and support the Commonwealth’s own agenda of supporting Australia’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Specifically, the statement called out the need to minimise the cost and burdens of regulatory requirements while also promoting competition, innovation and the digital economy. 

More broadly, the statement indicated that the government expects ASIC to work closely with it on the implementation of policy reforms and in its exercise of policy-related functions.

ASIC has issued their own Statement of Intent in response, confirming that the organisation intends to contribute to the federal government’s economic goals and COVID pandemic recovery.

“While ASIC will act independently in carrying out our regulatory functions and making regulatory decisions, we remain committed to working with government, Treasury and other regulators.”

“We will consult with government and Treasury on our policy-related functions,” ASIC said. 

The regulator took the opportunity to call out their ongoing information-sharing arrangement with the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) and pointed to their recently released Corporate Plan, which outlined their specific priorities over the next four years.

“We will use our full suite of regulatory tools in a targeted and proportionate way, to identify and reduce the risk of misconduct in the markets and sectors we regulate,” ASIC pledged.

This exchange of promises between ASIC and the federal government follows the appointment of Joseph Longo as the regulator’s new chair.

Speaking at a function earlier this year, Mr Longo emphasised the long-term importance and benefits of a stronger financial system, but acknowledged that the challenges of implementing industry reforms have been made more difficult as a result of COVID-19 and renewed lockdowns.

“We want to ensure the reforms are successfully implemented – and that means we will continue to work with industry, and build on the efforts by industry associations and individual licensees in preparing for these reforms,” he said.

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The federal government is looking to bring ASIC on-side as part of its economic recovery agenda. 

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