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Australia’s sectoral scars are deepening – a problem we love to dwell on as a nation, a new report has pointed out.

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Deloitte’s Q4 business outlook, Cratered confidence weighs on growth, has observed both the highs and the lows of Australia’s industry sectors to provide a snapshot of the Australian economy, and despite some less-than-good news, it’s been quick to point out the sectoral success stories too.

This is because the lead author of the report, Chris Richardson, flagged that “Australia’s biggest mistake of the moment is to dwell on the problems”.

“There’s plenty of sectoral success stories around too.”

But before we get into the good news, here are the sectors not travelling too well:

Retail and construction

First off the rank, the report’s authors noted retail as “already amid its deepest downturn since 1990”, while it’s a similar story for construction – which is shrinking at the fastest rate seen since 1999.

Continuing their runs of bad news, “neither will be hearing any corks pop in 2020”, wrote Mr Richardson.

By the time this year is over, he has predicted further falls in apartment activity will mean that residential construction will have matched its weakest ever recorded share of the Australian economy.

“In turn, that will have flow-on effects, ricocheting back as continuing weakness through both the wider construction and retail sectors.”

Farming

Insult is being added to injury for Australia’s farmers with the current bushfires joining the deep drought to add pressure to the agricultural sector.

Mr Richardson commented that “some of the workers leaving the land today may not return, as happened in the drought of the early 2000s and in the 2008 drought”.

Finance

A huge proportion of Australia’s economy, the finance sector looks set to record its weakest growth since the global financial crisis.

Despite the fallout from the royal commission still continuing, Mr Richardson said this detriment to growth cannot be blamed on the big fines that are being imposed.

Instead, it has more to do with the combination of low interest rates and weak credit growth that the outlook expert considers “kryptonite for the Supermen of this sector”.

Mining and manufacturing

According to Mr Richardson, the “long struggle” facing this sector “remains pretty painful”.

On the other hand, the mining sector is travelling well – despite the Deloitte partner’s concession that the glory phase of LNG output expansion is “now mostly in the rear-view mirror”.

So, where are the success stories?

Mr Richardson has emphasised the growth in healthcare as very healthy and nudging record highs.

“It became Australia’s largest employer a decade ago, and this sector’s trajectory will see it have the nation’s largest revenues (beating out mining) within a decade from now.”

In addition, growth in other sectors that link to taxpayer pockets – including education and the public sector itself – “remains more than solid”, the partner concluded.

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Australia’s sectoral scars are deepening – a problem we love to dwell on as a nation, a new report has pointed out.

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The federal Treasurer has defended Australia’s “strong” economy despite a global slowdown in growth and the economic impact of Australia’s bushfire crisis.

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At a doorstop interview in Canberra yesterday, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg flagged that unemployment had fallen to 5.2 per cent and 40,000 new jobs were created in the November quarter despite this week’s downgrading of global growth by IMF.

But, Mr Frydenberg said, “it did point to some positive signs and stabilisation in the global economy off the back of developments in relation to Brexit and the phase one trade deal between China and the United States”.

Closer to home, the Treasurer lauded the government’s response to the bushfire disaster and its “absolute first priority” on “meeting the human cost of the bushfires”.

“The benefit of having a strong economy is that you can spend on areas of need at times of economic shocks or at times of national crises, as is the bushfire situation, and we have done so with a $2 billion National Bushfire Recovery Fund without increasing taxes,” he said.

“This is a critical point,” he said, despite going on to emphasise that he would not provide a running commentary on the situation of the budget.

“So, while other countries around the world, including South Korea, the United Kingdom and Singapore, saw quarters of negative economic growth last year, the Australian economy continues to grow and continues to be remarkably resilient in the face of not just the bushfires, but the comprehensive drought that we have seen, as well as the global trade tensions,” he said.

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According to global housing affordability advocacy group Demographia’s latest annual research, despite the largest correction in Sydney’s price reduction in 35 years, house prices relative to incomes have doubled since the 1980s. 

Demographia assesses housing affordability in major markets across the world through the use of a “median multiple”, which divides the median house price by the median household income.

The research found that all five of Australia’s major markets (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth) were listed as “severely unaffordable”, recording a median multiple of 5 or above – meaning the median house price was over five times the median household income.

On average, Australia’s major housing markets posted a median multiple of 6.9 – the third highest (among eight national housing markets) in the world, behind only Hong Kong and New Zealand.

The research showed that Sydney is the third least affordable city in the world, with only Hong Kong and Vancouver being less affordable.

Melbourne came in fourth for least affordable, being a greater multiple than Los Angeles, Toronto and Auckland.

The group noted that in Sydney and Melbourne, median income households need at least three years more of income to pay for the median-priced house than in 2004 when the first Demographia Survey was published.

Of the areas studied, only Gladstone in Queensland, with a median multiple of 2.8, was considered affordable.

The report also found that the high cost of property will lead to an increase in government-required subsidised housing.

The Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute estimated the “current housing need in Australia to be 1.3 million households” and expected the need to worsen. 

A parliamentary briefing book found that “the stock of social housing is not increasing at a rate sufficient to keep up with demand, and waiting lists for social housing remain long,” the report concluded.

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The recovered property market is putting further strain on an already unaffordable market, as Australian housing ranks third least affordable country in the world.

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The Christmas hangover is tipped to continue, with burgeoning bills, debts and back-to-school expenses putting pressure on Australians.

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According to survey results released by Finder, 70 per cent of Australians are experiencing increased stress just three weeks into the year.

Bessie Hassan, money expert at Finder, said January is a pricey time of year for most Aussies. 

“The post-festive dust has barely settled before we’re hit with yet another onslaught of expenses.” 

“Back-to-school costs are unavoidable for parents, and they can really hurt the hip pocket.” 

“Not only do you have to fork out for uniforms, bags, stationery and books, you also have to contend with ongoing costs like transport and school lunches,” Ms Hassan said.

Almost one in four has been unsettled by annual bills like their car registration or home insurance policy, while 13 per cent are stressed about back-to-school expenses.

The research found that Aussies are also stressed by post-festive debt (20 per cent), the cost of keeping kids entertained (12 per cent) and trying to keep their New Year’s resolutions (12 per cent).

Ms Hassan said that it’s important Aussies are proactive about dealing with financial stress. 

“Audit your statement, switch to a cheaper financial product or consider a balance transfer credit card to consolidate your debt.”

“It can also be worth opening a back-to-school savings account and gradually adding to it over the coming year. This can take some of the financial strain out of next year,” Hassan explained.

 

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The Christmas hangover is tipped to continue, with burgeoning bills, debts and back-to-school expenses putting pressure on Australians.

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Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has all but promised to not take Labor’s controversial franking credit proposal to the next election.

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In a recent interview, Mr Albanese said Labor would not be taking the “same policy to the election” when queried about its proposal to remove refundable franking credits at the 2019 election.

“We will go through the detail of the announcement that we will make down the track. But, very clearly, we won’t be taking the same policy to the election,” Mr Albanese said.

However, when pushed further, the Labor leader did not rule out including a grandfather clause to its policy, noting instead that Labor would announce its full policies in time.

“I have a view about those things, but we will have our processes,” Mr Albanese said.

“We have a policy process that we will establish. And we will announce it in time.”

Mr Albanese also remained tight-lipped on Labor’s future plans with negative gearing, having previously campaigned with a proposal to limit negative gearing to new housing.

Labor had also proposed to halve the CGT discount to 25 per cent for investments entered into after 1 January 2020.

“Our policies aren’t there until we announce them proactively and positively,” Mr Albanese stressed.

“Our policies will be policies for the next election, when we announce them. And that will be the suite of policies that we take.”

Labor’s review of its 2019 federal election campaign found that its negative gearing crackdown and withdrawal of franking credits were the most contentious, with low-income voters swayed into voting against Labor despite not being directly affected by the policies.

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Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has all but promised to not take Labor’s controversial franking credit proposal to the next election.

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Australians are waiting longer to buy more expensive property assets that perform relatively poorly compared with other asset classes, new research has found.

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According to research by investment managers Fidelity International, the average Aussie in 2018 bought their first home at 35, compared to 24 three decades ago. 

Anthony Doyle, Fidelity International’s cross-asset specialist, believes younger people might be put off by diminishing returns.

“There are a number of reasons for this trend, including housing affordability, tighter lending standards and changing living preferences amongst younger generations,” Mr Doyle explained.

“However, one consideration that may be influencing the home purchase decision amongst younger Australians may be lower return expectations of first home buyers versus older generations,” Mr Doyle said.

Investors who were born in the ’50s and purchased property at age 30 (1980s) saw the value of the family home grow by 187 per cent.

When repeated for those born in the ’60s, ’70s and ’80s who also bought a home in their 30s, the total returns fell significantly.

“For those born in 1980 that purchased their first home in 2010, the performance of their house has been relatively poor relative to other asset classes, rising by only 9 per cent in real terms over the course of the decade,” Mr Doyle said.

In comparison to other assets over the same time, global equities grew by 145 per cent, Australian equities made 97 per cent more and Australian bonds grew by 63 per cent.

Mr Doyle also highlighted why he does not believe housing prices will continue to grow in the medium term.

“Given the current high level of Australian house prices relative to incomes, without higher wages growth, it is difficult to see the recovery in house prices seen over the last six months of 2019 being sustained over the medium term,” Mr Doyle said.

However, the investor noted that the housing market could see a short-term spike as interest rate cuts and the potential for quantitative easing from the RBA act as a “tailwind for house prices”.

“Given the low absolute level of interest rates, it is unlikely that those purchasing a house today will experience the high house price returns that older generations of Australian home owners have experienced,” Mr Doyle concluded.

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Australians are waiting longer to buy more expensive property assets that perform relatively poorly compared with other asset classes, new research has found.

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