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House prices in Australia’s two largest cities are surging and are now on track to hit a new record by March 2020, new research has revealed.

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CoreLogic’s home value index showed a nudge back into positive annual growth territory for the first time since April 2018, with dwelling values 0.1 per cent higher over the past 12 months.

Property prices in Sydney grew by 2.7 per cent in November, the highest monthly growth in three decades, while Melbourne property values grew by 2.2 per cent over the same period, CoreLogic found.

According to Tim Lawless, CoreLogic research head, “The synergy of a 75 basis point rate cut from the Reserve Bank, a loosening in loan serviceability policy from APRA, and the removal of uncertainty around taxation reform following the federal election outcome, are central to this recovery.”

The property research group highlighted lower stocks and a sense of urgency amongst buyers is helping drive strong growth amongst the capitals.

Melbourne was host to 1,497 auctions this week with preliminary results showing a clearance rate of 78.3 per cent, increasing from last week when the final clearance rate fell to 70.1 per cent across 1,221 auctions. 

Over the same week last year, the auction clearance rate was significantly lower, with 42.7 per cent of the 1,378 auctions returning a successful result.

There were 1,131 auctions held in Sydney this week, making it the busiest week of the year for the city, with preliminary results showing an 84.7 per cent clearance rate, up from 76 per cent across 940 auctions last week. 

Over the same week last year, 937 Sydney homes were taken to auction across the city, returning a clearance rate of 41.6 per cent.

Results were mixed across the smaller auction markets, with Adelaide and Canberra showing a preliminary clearance rate above 70 per cent, while only around half of the homes taken to auction in Brisbane and Perth were successful.

The latest results provide a timely test of the housing markets depth, with clearance rates holding up despite the large number of properties taken to market, CoreLogic said.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator"]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2019-12-02 01:28:10" ["slug"]=> string(45) "14229:capital-house-prices-nearing-new-record" ["parent_slug"]=> string(16) "284:invest-money" ["catslug"]=> string(12) "293:property" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#1951 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(417) "" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(191) "

House prices in Australia’s two largest cities are surging and are now on track to hit a new record by March 2020, new research has revealed.

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Experts predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia will take unconventional measures to fire up the economy, despite the governor stating in a speech last week that it’s “highly unlikely”.

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RBA governor Philip Lowe insisted that the federal bank had “no appetite” for quantitative easing (QE), a process where the central bank creates new cash to decrease – or ease – the cost of borrowing.

But nearly half (46 per cent) of experts disagree with the governor, stating QE will be needed in 2020.

Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said QE will be on the cards if the rate cuts continue to be ineffective beyond the housing market.

“The RBA said they may look to alternative stimulus methods once the rate hits 0.25 per cent. 

“We’re only two cuts away from that, and the three cuts of 2019 have failed to stimulate anything beyond the housing market,” Mr Cooke said.

Nearly two-thirds of surveyed economists believe the first of the two rate cuts is coming in February 2020.

Nerida Conisbee of REA Group said, “We have had three cuts in quick succession, and so far the economic response has been muted. At this stage, it is likely that rates will be cut in February. However, it will depend on data coming out over summer.”

Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, expects that the cash rate will be 0.25 per cent by June 2020.

Aside from QE, experts were asked to weigh in on the likelihood of a number of scenarios affecting the Australian economy.

On the bright side, a recession looks increasingly unlikely in 2020, with 89 per cent of experts not expecting an economic decline and 88 per cent thinking it unlikely that house prices will fall.

Three-quarters of experts surveyed (76 per cent) don’t foresee a significant rise in mortgage defaults, 64 per cent think a US-China trade deal is likely and 52 per cent say it is likely that house prices will fully recover.

Mr Cooke said the positive outlook on China is significant because the fate of the US-China trade deal was cited as economists’ number one economic concern in the August survey this year.

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Experts predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia will take unconventional measures to fire up the economy, despite the governor stating in a speech last week that it’s “highly unlikely”.

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When it comes to building long-term wealth, there are a few golden rules that can really make a difference. One – and perhaps the most crucial – is not to put all your eggs in one basket.

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We’ve all heard the adage. In fact, we’ve probably all heard it many, many times.

And yet, even the most experienced investors can be lured by the promises of a high-performing fund, or a particularly tempting once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

It pays to remember that when it comes to your finances, no single investment will continually outperform all other investments, all of the time. All markets have their ups and downs and, unless you happen to have invented a crystal ball (in which case, your financial future is looking pretty solid no matter how you’ve invested) you will never really know what’s around the corner.

It’s not only markets that can be inconsistent. We have different financial needs at different stages of life and, as we move closer to retirement, it becomes even more important to ensure our investments are stable.

If you’re past the wealth accumulation stage of your life, you’ve got less ability to recover from potential financial ups and downs so it pays to be more defensive in your thinking and look to options like fixed income funds with strong returns in order to meet your lifestyle and living requirements. Not only do these help you adjust to market fluctuations, they can also provide peace of mind at a time of life when you’re looking to the horizons with a new sense of freedom. 

However, not all diversification strategies are created equal. Here’s our tips to spreading your portfolio and shoring up your financial future in the process.

Diversify across asset classes

The building blocks of a strong diversified portfolio are to ensure you invest across asset classes. Look to include a mixture of equities, fixed interest, property and cash investments.

Your equities could include both Australian and international shares. Fixed interest investments could include government, semi-government and corporate bonds. If you invest in property, you could look to incorporate residential, retail and commercial properties. Cash options include includes term deposits and at-call cash accounts.

Look to your lower risk assets, including fixed interest and cash, to protect your capital when the market is bumpy. On the other hand, higher risk assets - such as your share portfolio - can deliver good returns during the boom times.

Holding a mix of asset classes may help to provide more stable returns over the medium to longer term as markets rise and fall.

Diversify within asset classes

To further strengthen your investments, look to spread them between different investments within the same asset classes too. For example, you may decide to invest in a range of investment properties and choose to spread that investment across commercial and residential properties. Now, you may look to different markets within the country – for example, different states or cities – to ensure you can better weather any storms in each individual market.

You may also look to spread your share portfolio across different industry sectors, because certain sectors will outperform others as the global marketplace evolves.

For example, investing heavily in mining would once have been considered a strong strategy. The Australian resources industry helped keep Australia’s economy a shining light against a gloomy international backdrop following the Global Financial Crisis and, had you invested heavily 15 years ago, you would have done quite well indeed.

Now, the mining sector is facing volatile conditions and its long-term future prospects look far less predictable. Buying up shares in other sectors as well would be advisable to reduce any future bumps along the road.

Diversify managers within asset classes

Not all managers were created equal. However, even if you found all the best financial managers in Australia and put them in a room together, you’d still find a range of strategies, approaches and outcomes achieved across the asset classes they invest in.

In short, it can pay to move your investments around a bit. Different managers have different strengths and just because your share guy is a whizz on the ASX, doesn’t mean you should trust his tips in property or fixed income alternatives.

Ensure your investment future is bright by spreading your investments between managers to ensure risk is minimised and returns are consistently strong.

It can be simple

It pays to remember that you don’t have to overcomplicate things. Even a relatively modest investment can achieve strong results over time with a smart strategy. Diversify that modest investment and your returns are likely to be stronger and more reliable over both the short and long-terms.

The other golden rule to remember is to never invest in something you don’t understand. If you can’t get your head around an opportunity and how exactly it’s going to bring you financial rewards down the track, you should probably save your hard-earned dollars. Find advisors or an investment partner who’s willing to take the time to guide you through your options and how exactly they work, as well as the risks and rewards attached.

David Mardell is the chief executive officer for Skyring Asset Management. 

 

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When it comes to building long-term wealth, there are a few golden rules that can really make a difference. One – and perhaps the most crucial – is not to put all your eggs in one basket.

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Record-low property listings across Australia, coupled with more buyers entering the market, have increased competition among buyers, meaning they are paying more for properties.

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According to CoreLogic, the number of residential advertised properties for sale this spring has been lower than last year across every capital, despite lower rates and ease of credit enticing buyers.

The number of new listings added to the national housing market through November was up 56 per cent from the quieter winter months, but compared with previous springs, it is at 2007 levels.

CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said “with buyers taking advantage of the lowest mortgage rates since at least the 1950s, along with an improvement in credit availability/borrowing capacity, market activity is rising.

“With such a small pool of stock available for sale, competition amongst buyers is increasing, adding a sense of urgency to the market, which is another factor supporting price growth at the moment.”

The largest drop in new listings numbers can be seen in Darwin, down almost 40 per cent compared with last year, while Hobart dropped 23.3 per cent Perth decreased by 23 per cent.

Total listing numbers were the lowest relative to a year ago in Sydney (down 23.1 per cent), Perth (down 16.1 per cent) and Melbourne (down 15.7 per cent).

“The low number of spring listings likely reflects a combination of factors,” Mr Lawless said.

“In markets where housing conditions have been weak, like Darwin and Perth, a lack of vendor confidence is understandable. Selling conditions have been tough in these markets since 2014 and prospective home sellers are likely wary of the challenging selling conditions, where homes are taking a long time to sell, discounting rates are high and properties are often selling for a lower amount than what they were purchased for.”

The lower numbers in Sydney and Melbourne are more surprising. Mr Lawless attributed this to overall lower consumer confidence in the economy and future household finances.

He cited another factor related to the speed of the market recovery.

“It was only five months ago that housing values were still broadly falling. Preparing a property for sale involves a number of processes that take some time, including making the decision to sell, finding an agent, preparing the home for sale and commencing a marketing campaign,” Mr Lawless said.

Taking this into consideration, Mr Lawless said if selling conditions remain strong through early summer, there could be a chance of the market being tested with a larger number of listings through early December or the first quarter of 2020.

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Record-low property listings across Australia, coupled with more buyers entering the market, have increased competition among buyers, meaning they are paying more for properties.

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Interest rates will remain lower for longer in Australia and globally as factors combine to produce near economic stagnation, investment managers have suggested. 

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According to VanEck, central banks are likely to keep rates low as economic stagnation kicks in.

“We believe the RBA will cut interest rates to a historic low of 50 basis points by early next year. Several factors are combining to hold back economic activity, which will keep interest rates very low,” VanEck head of investments Russell Chesler said.

In addition, Mr Chesler believes structural factors in Australia will keep interest rates low.

“While population growth is healthier, at around 1.6 per cent, helped on by immigration, household debt is very high, having escalated dramatically since the 1990s. 

“Both household debt-to-income and house prices-to-income ratios are very high. Other than Switzerland, Australia has the highest level of household debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in the developed world,” Mr Chesler explained.

VanEck noted that we are also likely to see low interest rates persist in Australia, given household consumption will remain subdued. Household income per capita is not increasing and wages growth remains very low, reflecting the high level of underemployment. Australia’s underemployment rate is sitting at almost 8.5 per cent.

“This indicates that a relatively large proportion of the working population is working part-time,” Mr Chester said. 

Worldwide debt levels are around 220 per cent of GDP. The investment manager suggested high debt suppresses economic activity worldwide, having an impact on Australia.

Mr Chester also suggested demographic factors are contributing to low levels of economic growth. The increased size of the developed market’s working-age population has slowed considerably in the last 20 years and is expected to contract around 2030, which will weigh heavily on consumption.

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Interest rates will remain lower for longer in Australia and globally as factors combine to produce near economic stagnation, investment managers have suggested. 

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Australians will spend a combined total of $3.9 billion on everything from clothing and cosmetics to gadgets and travel during the Black Friday sale, new research has suggested.

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According to comparison site Finder, Aussies will be spending the most on travel, with the average shopper forking out $130 on average.

Surprisingly, this is followed by food and alcohol, where they are set to spend $127.

Clothes and shoes round out the top three deals and discounts Aussies intend to make the most of, with the average shopper spending approximately $93.

Kate Browne, personal finance expert at Finder, said Black Friday is a great way to get your Christmas shopping done for a steal.

“Black Friday has been known to crash websites, so it’s best to know what you want and to get in early. There’s nothing worse than adding an item to your cart only to realise they no longer have it in your size,” she said.

While the phenomenon is new to Australian markets, research from Monash University suggests Black Friday sales outperformed traditional December Christmas period sales, increasing by 14 per cent.

In contrast, sales in the three-day lead-up to Christmas Day grew by 3.5 per cent, while Boxing Day sales fell by 10.3 per cent.

However, Black Friday discounting is usually a race to the bottom in terms of profitability for Australian retailers.

“With typical Christmas discounts already placing pressure on margins, Black Friday may risk simply pulling the Christmas sales boost forward into November, instead of truly increasing sales volumes for retailers,” Monash’s Dr Rebecca Dare said. 

Dr Dare believes retailers can get ahead if they follow the United States model instead of slashing prices.

“For Australian retailers, tapping into Black Friday’s latent emotional significance, turning it into more than just a ruthless discounting event, may very well be the solution to their profitability woes,” Dr Dare concluded.

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Australians will spend a combined total of $3.9 billion on everything from clothing and cosmetics to gadgets and travel during the Black Friday sale, new research has suggested.

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