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In an extraordinary start to the year, gold prices have surged past the US$5,000 mark, marking a significant milestone in the precious metal's market. January witnessed a remarkable 14% rally, closing the month at US$4,982 per ounce, just shy of the new benchmark. This surge included 12 all-time highs throughout the month, demonstrating gold's strength amid global market uncertainties.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(4183) "The impressive rally was not without its volatility. The final days of January saw large intraday swings, reflecting the unpredictable nature of the market. According to the Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), a substantial portion of January’s return was attributed to implied volatility, accounting for approximately 50% of the gains. This indicates significant activity in the options market, which is currently classified under risk and uncertainty but may also reflect market momentum.
Supporting this bullish trend, global gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows added 120 tonnes in January, setting a new record with a valuation of US$669 billion. The demand was primarily driven by Asia, which contributed 62 tonnes, followed by North America with 43 tonnes, and Europe with a more modest inflow of 13 tonnes.
While gold continues to shine, the bond market faces an uphill struggle. Geopolitical tensions have been a significant factor in recent market volatility, but analysts suggest this influence may temporarily wane, shifting the focus back to macroeconomic fundamentals. In the United States, the combination of easier monetary policy and fiscal stimulus is expected to keep the economy running hot, potentially reigniting inflation risks.
"The consensus view is that inflation will ease back to the subdued levels experienced prior to the pandemic," said a market analyst. "However, inflation risks could be greater than investors think."
Several factors contribute to the potential resurgence of inflation. A neutral rate higher than the Federal Open Market Committee's current estimates, the lagged effects of tariffs, and possible fiscal support through renewed Affordable Care Act subsidies are among the key elements. Additionally, a tighter labour market, looser financial conditions, and rising household inflation expectations add to the inflationary pressures.
Market signals regarding inflation are mixed. The decline in implied rates volatility, known as MOVE, suggests a more benign near-term inflation narrative and reduced policy uncertainty. However, term premia remain high, indicating that investors are still pricing in significant medium-term inflation and supply risks, especially given persistent budget deficits.
"The stock–bond correlation typically turns more positive when the dominant shock is inflationary, supply-driven, or fiscally driven," explained a financial strategist. "Both asset classes can sell off together under these conditions."
Recent negative inflation surprises have helped reduce the stock-bond correlation, but this relationship remains unreliable unless a serious downside market stress environment emerges. A renewed upswing in inflation could test the credibility of the incoming Federal Reserve leadership. Any indication of a more hands-off approach could bolster gold demand through stronger inflation-hedging demand and a higher stock-bond correlation. Conversely, a clear shift towards policy hawkishness might curb gold demand in the short term.
"The recent run-up in gold prices probably warrants a pause," noted an industry expert. "But we see continued investment demand as a feature of 2026."
Geopolitical factors are expected to remain a primary driver of gold prices, with macroeconomic conditions potentially reinforcing this trend. A renewed rise in inflation expectations, particularly amid fiscal support ahead of mid-term elections, could push the stock-bond correlation higher.
Risks to gold's momentum mainly stem from its elevated prices and the potential for a sustained easing in geopolitical tensions. With the new Federal Reserve leadership in place, markets will closely watch how the incoming chair navigates the challenges ahead. Despite previous criticisms of Powell's strategy, the new leadership may continue the status quo, leaving yields higher for longer and potentially favouring equities through strong growth.
As the market adjusts to these dynamics, the interplay between gold, bonds, and equities will remain a focal point for investors navigating the complex landscape of 2023.
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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2026-02-08 20:00:59" ["slug"]=> string(67) "20250:gold-s-rally-surpasses-us-5-000-amid-bond-volatility-concerns" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#10308 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "- Yes
In an extraordinary start to the year, gold prices have surged past the US$5,000 mark, marking a significant milestone in the precious metal's market. January witnessed a remarkable 14% rally, closing the month at US$4,982 per ounce, just shy of the new benchmark. This surge included 12 all-time highs throughout the month, demonstrating gold's strength amid global market uncertainties.
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January saw an influx of US$19 billion into gold ETFs, marking the strongest month on record for these investment vehicles. This surge in investment, coupled with a 14% rise in gold prices, propelled the global gold ETF AUM to a new high of US$669 billion, representing a 20% increase over the month. The collective holdings also rose by 120 tonnes to 4,145 tonnes, setting a new all-time high.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(4332) "The demand for gold ETFs was driven by investors from North America and Asia, with Europe also contributing significantly to the growth. North America, in particular, maintained its strong momentum by adding US$7 billion in January, marking the eighth consecutive month of inflows. Despite a sharp price pullback towards the end of the month, following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, the region still reported net positive flows on the final trading day. This resilience was supported by geopolitical tensions involving the US and other regions, which sustained investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.
"Even with the recent price decline, all regions except Europe saw net inflows on both 30 January and 2 February, as investors appeared to take advantage of the dip to add exposure to gold," noted a market analyst.
The geopolitical landscape played a crucial role in driving demand for gold ETFs in Europe as well. The region recorded inflows for the third consecutive month, adding US$2 billion in January. The strong performance of gold prices, combined with escalating geopolitical and trade frictions between the US and Europe, particularly President Trump's tariff threats linked to the Greenland dispute, increased investor interest in gold ETFs as a hedge against uncertainty. The broader market volatility stemming from EU preparations for retaliatory tariffs and pressure on export-heavy economies further reinforced the demand for defensive assets such as gold.
"In the UK, which led regional inflows, persistently elevated inflation and renewed political tensions further fuelled investor appetite for gold ETFs as a hedge against both domestic and external risks," said a European market strategist.
Asian funds also reported significant inflows, amounting to US$10 billion in January, marking their strongest month on record. This accounted for 51% of net global inflows, a notable achievement considering Asian holdings are only about one-fifth the size of North America's. China led the region's inflows with US$6 billion, ranking as the second-largest source of inflows globally, closely behind the US. The country's continued appetite for gold ETFs was underpinned by robust gold prices, lingering geopolitical uncertainty, and strong institutional demand.
"India also delivered sizeable inflows of US$2.5 billion, supported by continued momentum in gold prices and a rotation toward diversification as domestic equities underperformed," commented an Asian market analyst.
Other regions, including Australia and South Africa, also registered positive flows at the start of 2026, contributing US$295 million. This marked the second consecutive month of inflows for these regions, driven primarily by contributions from Australia.
The surge in gold ETF inflows was accompanied by a significant increase in global gold market trading volumes, which averaged US$621 billion per day in January. This represented a 51% month-on-month increase and was 72% above the 2025 average. The rise in trading volumes was particularly notable in the final week of the month, when heightened volatility pushed activity to an average of US$963 billion per day.
"Over-the-counter activity strengthened, with volumes rising to US$278 billion per day on the back of increased LBMA trading," noted a trading expert. "Meanwhile, elevated price volatility supported a sharp pick-up in derivatives trading across major exchanges, where volumes climbed to US$320 billion per day."
Trading in global gold ETFs also rose significantly to US$23 billion per day, driven largely by a near 200% increase in North American ETF activity, partly due to options expiry and month-end volatility. In tonnage terms, trading volumes averaged 3,998 tonnes per day in January, up 35% month-on-month and well above the 2025 average of 3,247 tonnes per day.
Positioning data showed a moderation, with total COMEX net longs falling 6% during the month to 642 tonnes. This decline, however, does not capture the final days of elevated volatility. Money manager net longs slipped 4% to 378 tonnes, while Other net longs declined 8% to 264 tonnes, likely reflecting profit-taking after steady net-long buildup earlier in the month.
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In a remarkable start to the new year, global gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have witnessed unprecedented inflows, pushing their total assets under management (AUM) and collective holdings to record levels. January saw an influx of US$19 billion into gold ETFs, marking the strongest month on record for these investment vehicles. This surge in investment, coupled with a 14% rise in gold prices, propelled the global gold ETF AUM to a new high of US$669 billion, representing a 20% increase over the month. The collective holdings also rose by 120 tonnes to 4,145 tonnes, setting a new all-time high.
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This surge was largely driven by a steady decline in interest rates and the impact of US tariffs on global supply chains, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform. The year saw a notable emphasis on supply chain resilience, with $184 billion in supply chain-related transactions across 21 deals spanning sectors such as industrials, consumer, and materials.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(3709) "GlobalData’s latest report, “Global M&A Deals in 2025 – Top Themes by Sector: Strategic Intelligence,” highlights that the combined value of mega-deals, defined as transactions valued at $1 billion or more, rose by 34% to $2.4 trillion, up from $1.8 trillion in 2024. This indicates a robust appetite for large-scale acquisitions, as companies seek to bolster their supply chain capabilities amid a challenging global trade environment.
Priya Toppo, Strategic Intelligence Analyst at GlobalData, elaborated on the factors driving the focus on supply chain-related M&A deals. “Rising geopolitical tensions, especially in terms of tariffs, shifting demographics, heightened ESG regulations, ongoing labour shortages, and accelerated digital transformation have all further intensified the focus on supply chain-related M&A deals,” she commented. “Companies are increasingly prioritising resilient, localised, and technology-driven supply chains to mitigate risks and enhance operational efficiency. This was especially true in the consumer, industrials, materials, and healthcare sectors.”
The year’s most significant supply chain deal was the merger of Essential Utilities with American Water Works, valued at $30.1 billion. This was closely followed by Sycamore Partners’ acquisition of Walgreens Boots Alliance for $23.7 billion and Keurig Dr Pepper's acquisition of JDE Peet’s for $23.1 billion. These substantial transactions underscore the strategic importance of supply chain integration in today's business landscape.
Toppo further noted the regional dynamics of M&A activity, stating, “An ongoing trend is the dominance of North America in M&A deal activity, accounting for 11,403 deals worth $1.9 trillion in 2025. However, Europe and APAC (excluding China), saw a YoY decline in deal value.” This highlights a shift in the global M&A landscape, with North America taking the lead while other regions face headwinds.
The strategic focus on supply chain resilience is not without reason. As geopolitical tensions and trade barriers continue to pose challenges, companies are seeking to secure their operations against potential disruptions. This has led to a wave of M&A activity aimed at strengthening supply chain networks through vertical integration and technological enhancement.
Looking ahead, Toppo offered insights into the M&A outlook for 2026. “The M&A outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, fueled by potential interest rate cuts and the need to adjust to the new tariff landscape,” she said. However, she also cautioned that large deals may still face challenges in the US due to ongoing regulatory scrutiny. This suggests that while the appetite for mergers remains strong, companies must navigate a complex regulatory environment to achieve their strategic objectives.
The report by GlobalData underscores the evolving priorities of businesses in a rapidly changing global economy. As companies grapple with the dual challenges of geopolitical uncertainty and technological disruption, M&A activity is increasingly focused on creating resilient and efficient supply chains. This trend is likely to shape the future of global business, as organisations strive to remain competitive in an interconnected world.
Overall, the surge in M&A deal value in 2025 reflects a strategic shift towards supply chain resilience, driven by a confluence of economic, geopolitical, and technological factors. As companies continue to adapt to these changes, the role of mergers and acquisitions in shaping corporate strategy is set to become even more pronounced.
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This surge was largely driven by a steady decline in interest rates and the impact of US tariffs on global supply chains, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform. The year saw a notable emphasis on supply chain resilience, with $184 billion in supply chain-related transactions across 21 deals spanning sectors such as industrials, consumer, and materials." 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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2026-02-05 20:00:25" ["slug"]=> string(88) "20248:global-m-a-deal-value-surges-31-in-2025-as-focus-shifts-to-supply-chain-resilience" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#10386 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "- Yes
In a significant upswing, global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals reached an impressive $3 trillion in 2025, marking a 31% increase from the previous year. This surge was largely driven by a steady decline in interest rates and the impact of US tariffs on global supply chains, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform. The year saw a notable emphasis on supply chain resilience, with $184 billion in supply chain-related transactions across 21 deals spanning sectors such as industrials, consumer, and materials.
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int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(116) "/invest-money/investment-insights/global-m-a-deal-value-surges-31-in-2025-as-focus-shifts-to-supply-chain-resilience" ["image"]=> string(111) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1771243543/pexels-burst-374018_ewiqz3.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(83) "Global M&A deal value surges 31% in 2025 as focus shifts to supply chain resilience" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#9712 (57) { ["id"]=> int(20116) ["title"]=> string(92) "Rate resilience in Australian housing: why scarce supply is overpowering monetary tightening" ["alias"]=> string(91) "rate-resilience-in-australian-housing-why-scarce-supply-is-overpowering-monetary-tightening" ["introtext"]=> string(537) "Australia’s housing market is defying higher borrowing costs because the binding constraint isn’t demand—it’s supply. Brokers report persistent buyer competition and investor repositioning, while lenders pivot products toward resilient profit pools. The strategic imperative: plan for a market where prices remain sticky, volumes are volatile, and micro-market dynamics matter more than headline rates. The winners will combine product innovation with sharper risk analytics and disciplined execution.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(8955) "When supply is chronically constrained, interest rates lose some of their bite. That’s the uncomfortable truth behind Australia’s still-firm housing market, even as borrowing costs have risen. Brokers are recording brisk competition for limited stock, and investors—especially self-managed super fund (SMSF) buyers—are selectively returning where rents and tax settings tip the maths. For boards and CFOs across financial services, property, and adjacent sectors, the implication is clear: prepare for a prolonged regime of price stickiness, uneven volumes, and shifting profit pools rather than a classic rate-driven cooldown.
Demand–supply reality check
In a market where new listings lag household formation and rental vacancies remain tight, marginal changes in mortgage rates struggle to reset price expectations. Brokers cite two reinforcing pressures: a structural shortfall in new dwellings and elevated rental demand. The latter is amplified by population growth and a rebound in mobility since the pandemic, keeping rental yields attractive in select suburbs. Meanwhile, constrained construction capacity, higher build costs, and planning bottlenecks slow the supply response.
This elasticity problem—inelastic supply meeting durable shelter demand—keeps prices firm and competition intense in family segments and well-located investor stock. While some would-be owner-occupiers have been priced out, substitution to smaller dwellings or peripheral locations has sustained transaction pipelines. Market participants report that investors are recalibrating toward cash-flow-positive assets in tightly held rental postcodes rather than exiting altogether.
Business impact: profit pools shift along the value chain
In this environment, profit pools are migrating rather than shrinking uniformly:
- Lenders and non-banks: Net interest margins remain under pressure, but niche books tied to investor and SMSF lending can sustain growth. Notably, a non-bank recently trimmed rates on its Bold SMSF offering (6 January 2026), signalling a tactical pivot to segments where rental income and super structures underpin serviceability.
- Brokers: Volumes are increasingly driven by switching and refinancing efficiency. As one broker advisory put it in 2025, borrowers exceeding pre-approval thresholds often secure better outcomes by shopping around—an opportunity for brokers with superior lender panels and cycle-time discipline.
- Developers: Build-to-sell cycles are risky where costs are elevated; build-to-rent (BTR) economics can look relatively defensible in undersupplied locations. However, funding certainty and construction productivity remain choke points.
- Investors: Cash flow is king. Despite higher debt costs, rising rents in supply-constrained micro-markets help preserve yields. Expert commentary around the RBA’s decision to hold the cash rate in late 2025 argued that competitive conditions would persist for investors, reinforcing the notion that capital seeks scarcity.
Competitive advantage: product, policy, and portfolio innovation
Early movers are using a three-pronged playbook:
- Product: Investor-oriented mortgages and SMSF loans priced with differentiated risk tiers; flexible interest-only windows where prudent; and rate lock features to reduce pipeline fallout. The January 2026 rate reduction in the SMSF niche is a practical example of competing for resilient demand pockets.
- Policy: Dynamic serviceability settings for verified rental escalations and energy-efficiency improvements (which can lower household outgoings) without diluting prudential standards. APRA’s 3 percentage point serviceability buffer remains a key anchor; the edge is in how lenders integrate verified income/expense data to sharpen assessments.
- Portfolio: Reweight new originations towards suburbs with demonstrable rental depth and low new-supply pipelines, and actively de-risk exposure to projects facing cost blowouts or planning delays. For funds, tilting towards BTR or stabilised assets in supply-starved corridors can improve durability.
Implementation reality: underwriting, risk, and operating cadence
Execution, not slogans, will separate leaders from laggards:
- Stress testing: Move beyond blunt rate shocks. Add scenarios for elongated time-to-let, construction delays, and cost inflation, while calibrating for micro-market vacancy dynamics.
- Serviceability and arrears: Maintain prudence on living-expense verification and buffers; enhance early-warning systems using bank transaction analytics to detect stress markers (e.g., missed utility bills) before mortgage arrears form.
- Speed to yes: In tight markets, borrower attrition rises with every day of delay. Streamline credit decisioning with pre-verified data packs and push to same-day conditional approvals for vanilla cases, improving broker conversion.
- Developer risk gates: Require cost-to-complete insurance, fixed-price contract scrutiny, and subcontractor solvency checks as standard, recognising that elevated build costs can turn viable pre-sales into marginal projects.
Technical deep dive: data and AI to price risk and forecast demand
Analytics is the new interest rate. The practical use-cases are clear:
- Nowcasting demand: Fuse listings velocity, inspection attendance, and rental enquiry data to build suburb-level heatmaps. Couple this with transaction banking signals (deposit inflows, rental payments) to anticipate settlement risk.
- Micro-market risk pricing: Use geospatial models to link planning approvals, construction pipeline data, and transport upgrades to forward supply curves. This supports granular risk-based pricing and LVR adjustments.
- Portfolio early warnings: Deploy anomaly detection on repayment behaviours and discretionary spend compression to triage proactive hardship outreach.
Australia has the ingredients for this shift but faces a well-documented commercialisation gap in AI. A 2025 analysis of the local ecosystem highlighted strong adoption but weaker translation into scalable, home-grown AI products. Governance is tightening too: the Australian Government’s 2024 interim response on AI and the ATO’s guidance on general-purpose AI signal expectations for robust guardrails and auditability. Organisations should align models with Australia’s AI Ethics Principles, ensuring fairness, transparency, and contestability are baked into credit decisioning and borrower communications.
Data access is another competitive axis. The ACCC reported Google’s share of general search at roughly 94% as of August 2024, underscoring how digital discovery is concentrated. Proptechs and lenders relying on paid search face rising acquisition costs; partnerships, first-party data strategies, and open banking integrations can reduce dependence on platform tolls.
Future outlook: scenarios, triggers, and a leadership playbook
Scenario 1: Plateau and drift. Policy rates plateau before gradual easing; prices remain firm where supply is constrained; refinancing churn persists. Strategy: capture share with speed and service; protect margins via risk-based pricing and deposit strategy.
Scenario 2: Supply catch-up, selectively. Planning reforms and modular construction ease pressure in a handful of corridors; price growth moderates locally but remains resilient nationally. Strategy: reweight originations into improving affordability zones; expand BTR where pipeline visibility strengthens.
Scenario 3: Policy shock. A sharper-than-expected economic slowdown lifts arrears. Strategy: activate hardship playbooks, tighten underwriting on high DTI segments, and use granular triage to prevent blanket credit rationing.
Key triggers to watch: monthly approvals and completions; rental vacancy levels; construction insolvencies; migration flows; and regulatory signals from APRA on buffers. For AI and data capability, track model risk expectations from regulators and industry standards for explainability in credit decisions.
Actionable next steps for executives:
- Stand up a cross-functional “micro-market desk” that updates pricing and appetite monthly by suburb.
- Launch an investor-focused product sprint (e.g., SMSF, cash-flow underwriting pilots) with clear risk limits.
- Build an AI-enabled early warning system for borrower stress, governed under Australia’s AI Ethics Principles.
- Reduce acquisition dependence on search platforms with first-party data, broker partnerships, and open banking consent flows.
- For developers and landlords, stress-test projects at today’s costs plus delay buffers; prioritise schemes with demonstrable rental depth.
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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2026-02-04 21:00:03" ["slug"]=> string(97) "20116:rate-resilience-in-australian-housing-why-scarce-supply-is-overpowering-monetary-tightening" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#10453 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "- Yes
Australia’s housing market is defying higher borrowing costs because the binding constraint isn’t demand—it’s supply. Brokers report persistent buyer competition and investor repositioning, while lenders pivot products toward resilient profit pools. The strategic imperative: plan for a market where prices remain sticky, volumes are volatile, and micro-market dynamics matter more than headline rates. The winners will combine product innovation with sharper risk analytics and disciplined execution.
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This move, aimed at controlling inflation, has elicited responses from various sectors, particularly employment and recruitment. As inflation rates surpass expectations and unemployment falls to 4.1%, industry leaders are assessing the wider implications of this monetary policy shift.
Ben Thompson, CEO and co-founder of Employment Hero, noted that the rate hike was expected in light of current economic indicators. "The rate increase isn’t a surprise given inflation has come in above expectations and unemployment has fallen to 4.1%," Thompson commented. He warned, however, that the higher rates could intensify challenges for households and small businesses, especially as the labour market begins to show signs of cooling.
Employment Hero's latest data indicates a deceleration in hiring, with employers reducing hours, particularly impacting younger Australians and those in casual, shift-based roles. "The latest Employment Hero jobs data shows hiring is slowing and employers are cutting hours. That’s most pronounced amongst younger Australians and in casual, shift-based roles - jobs that depend on rostered hours, weekend shifts and seasonal demand," Thompson elaborated. He pointed out that while the rate increase is intended to manage inflation, it may further highlight the cooling trend observed in their data as business owners navigate a more challenging environment.
Martin Herbst, CEO of JobAdder, described the rate hikes as a "sobering signal" for the labour market, urging businesses to adopt a more strategic approach to hiring. "Rate hikes are a sobering signal for the labor market, forcing businesses to be far more surgical with their hiring," Herbst remarked. He highlighted a significant shift in market dynamics, with a noticeable slowdown in job creation contrasted by a 42% year-on-year surge in candidate applications.
"For employers, the challenge has shifted from 'finding' talent to 'filtering' it," Herbst explained. The dramatic increase in applications has created a complex landscape for businesses, necessitating the use of advanced technologies to streamline recruitment processes. "This massive spike in volume creates a lot of noise, which is why we are now leaning heavily on AI-driven vetting and matching tools," he said. By leveraging artificial intelligence to efficiently sift through large volumes of data, JobAdder aims to identify the most suitable candidates with precision. "By using AI to parse high-volume data points and identify core competencies instantly, we can cut through the 42% surge to find the elite 1% who truly fit the brief. In this high-interest environment, businesses can't afford a bad hire; they need precision, and the combination of AI efficiency and human expertise is how we deliver that."
The RBA's decision underscores the delicate balance policymakers must maintain between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. As businesses grapple with the implications of higher interest rates, the focus will likely shift towards optimising operations and making strategic decisions in recruitment and workforce management.
The current economic climate presents both challenges and opportunities for Australian businesses. While the rate hike aims to stabilise the economy, its impact on the job market will be closely monitored. For now, industry leaders like Thompson and Herbst are emphasising the importance of adaptability and innovation in navigating this period of economic adjustment.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, raising the cash rate to 3.85%. This move, aimed at controlling inflation, has elicited responses from various sectors, particularly employment and recruitment. As inflation rates surpass expectations and unemployment falls to 4.1%, industry leaders are assessing the wider implications of this monetary policy shift.
Ben Thompson, CEO and co-founder of Employment Hero, noted that the rate hike was expected in light of current economic indicators. "The rate increase isn’t a surprise given inflation has come in above expectations and unemployment has fallen to 4.1%," Thompson commented. He warned, however, that the higher rates could intensify challenges for households and small businesses, especially as the labour market begins to show signs of cooling.
Employment Hero's latest data indicates a deceleration in hiring, with employers reducing hours, particularly impacting younger Australians and those in casual, shift-based roles. "The latest Employment Hero jobs data shows hiring is slowing and employers are cutting hours. That’s most pronounced amongst younger Australians and in casual, shift-based roles - jobs that depend on rostered hours, weekend shifts and seasonal demand," Thompson elaborated. He pointed out that while the rate increase is intended to manage inflation, it may further highlight the cooling trend observed in their data as business owners navigate a more challenging environment.
Martin Herbst, CEO of JobAdder, described the rate hikes as a "sobering signal" for the labour market, urging businesses to adopt a more strategic approach to hiring. "Rate hikes are a sobering signal for the labor market, forcing businesses to be far more surgical with their hiring," Herbst remarked. He highlighted a significant shift in market dynamics, with a noticeable slowdown in job creation contrasted by a 42% year-on-year surge in candidate applications.
"For employers, the challenge has shifted from 'finding' talent to 'filtering' it," Herbst explained. The dramatic increase in applications has created a complex landscape for businesses, necessitating the use of advanced technologies to streamline recruitment processes. "This massive spike in volume creates a lot of noise, which is why we are now leaning heavily on AI-driven vetting and matching tools," he said. By leveraging artificial intelligence to efficiently sift through large volumes of data, JobAdder aims to identify the most suitable candidates with precision. "By using AI to parse high-volume data points and identify core competencies instantly, we can cut through the 42% surge to find the elite 1% who truly fit the brief. In this high-interest environment, businesses can't afford a bad hire; they need precision, and the combination of AI efficiency and human expertise is how we deliver that."
The RBA's decision underscores the delicate balance policymakers must maintain between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. As businesses grapple with the implications of higher interest rates, the focus will likely shift towards optimising operations and making strategic decisions in recruitment and workforce management.
The current economic climate presents both challenges and opportunities for Australian businesses. While the rate hike aims to stabilise the economy, its impact on the job market will be closely monitored. For now, industry leaders like Thompson and Herbst are emphasising the importance of adaptability and innovation in navigating this period of economic adjustment.
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int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(85) "/invest-money/economy/rbas-interest-rate-hike-impacts-australian-employment-landscape" ["image"]=> string(122) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1771241224/pexels-mart-production-7644060_b3yyd8.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(64) "RBA's interest rate hike impacts Australian employment landscape" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#9710 (57) { ["id"]=> int(20246) ["title"]=> string(59) "RBA’s latest rate hike sparks debate over economic impact" ["alias"]=> string(57) "rba-s-latest-rate-hike-sparks-debate-over-economic-impact" ["introtext"]=> string(299) "In a surprising move, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased the cash rate, signalling a significant shift in its monetary policy approach. This decision comes amid a backdrop of unexpected economic data, which has prompted a re-evaluation of the country’s financial landscape.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(3872) "Krishna Bhimavarapu, an APAC Economist at State Street Investment Management, a leading global financial services provider, offered insights into the RBA's decision. He noted, "The RBA’s rate hike today reflects its heightened sensitivity to recent upside surprises in the data—most notably a lower‑than‑expected unemployment rate and Q4 inflation that came in 'materially higher' than forecast." This statement underscores the central bank's growing concern over inflationary pressures and its commitment to addressing them proactively.
The RBA's decision to raise the cash rate is anchored in its forecast that inflation will remain persistent. The Bank now projects the cash rate to rise to 4.2% by December and 4.3% by 2027. Bhimavarapu highlighted this shift, stating, "This represents a clear and meaningful shift away from the rhetoric we had been forecasting." This adjustment in expectations marks a departure from the previous outlook, indicating a more aggressive stance on inflation control.
Despite the revised outlook, Bhimavarapu expressed concerns about the potential impact on private consumption. He explained, "Although the RBA has revised its growth outlook higher, but still below our above‑consensus view, we are concerned that the higher assumed cash rate path could constrain private consumption, even if capex and other growth drivers pick up." This concern reflects the delicate balance the RBA must maintain between curbing inflation and supporting economic growth.
The RBA’s decision arrives at a time when the Australian economy is showing mixed signals. While the unemployment rate has been lower than expected, indicating a robust labour market, inflation figures have exceeded forecasts, prompting the central bank to act. The move to increase the cash rate suggests that the RBA is prioritising inflation control over other economic considerations, at least in the short term.
However, the central bank's new trajectory raises questions about its future actions, particularly if economic conditions change. Bhimavarapu pondered, "The larger question for us is – whether the Bank would reassess this stance should labour market conditions soften and inflation pressures turn more decisively lower later this year on base-effects? We are not quite sure." This uncertainty highlights the complexities involved in monetary policy decision-making and the challenges the RBA faces in navigating these uncertain waters.
The impact of the RBA’s decision is likely to be felt across various sectors of the economy. Higher interest rates could lead to increased borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially dampening spending and investment. On the other hand, a firmer stance on inflation could stabilise prices in the long run, providing a more predictable economic environment.
State Street Investment Management, which oversees US$53.8 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration and US$5.7 trillion in assets under management, is closely monitoring the situation. The firm’s analysis suggests that while the RBA’s move is a response to immediate economic indicators, its long-term effects will depend on how the economy evolves in the coming months.
As the Australian economy navigates these changes, stakeholders will be watching closely to see how the RBA’s policies unfold. The central bank’s ability to adapt to shifting economic conditions will be crucial in ensuring a balanced approach to growth and inflation.
The RBA’s latest rate hike reflects its proactive stance in addressing inflationary pressures amidst unexpected economic data. While this move marks a departure from previous forecasts, it raises important questions about the future direction of monetary policy and its impact on the Australian economy.
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In a surprising move, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased the cash rate, signalling a significant shift in its monetary policy approach. This decision comes amid a backdrop of unexpected economic data, which has prompted a re-evaluation of the country’s financial landscape.
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int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(79) "/invest-money/economy/rba-s-latest-rate-hike-sparks-debate-over-economic-impact" ["image"]=> string(121) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1771240744/pexels-laura-tancredi-7078652_zqqwkb.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(59) "RBA’s latest rate hike sparks debate over economic impact" } }
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