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Following Russia and Saudi Arabia ramping up oil production as demand for oil falls, consumers could be the major winners as the price of petroleum drops to single digits, industry experts have suggested.

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State Street Global Markets (SSGM) said it can’t rule out oil prices below US$10 a barrel as demand drops by more than 20 million barrels per day. 

“As we look at pictures of empty streets in London, New York and other major cities around the world, it is clear 2020 is going to see far fewer miles driven,” said Ben Jones, multi-asset class strategist at SSGM.

“US gasoline consumption alone averages 9 million barrels per day throughout the year and would normally be expected to increase in the coming months as the US driving season (April-September) gets underway. However, the reverse trend is likely to be seen this year, as it is not just local travel restrictions that are hitting oil demand.”

Airlines are also grounding large sections of their fleets, and while planes are still transporting cargo, a “conservative estimate” of 50 per cent fewer flights would still see a reduction of 5 million fewer barrels of oil a day. 

“Despite these statistics, major oil producers continue to pump more,” Mr Jones said. 

“From 1 April, Saudi Aramco will open the taps and produce 12 million barrels of oil a day, up from an average of 10 million. From a budget perspective, Saudi Arabia will need oil prices of around $87 to breakeven, whereas Russia needs oil at just $42. There is no sign that Saudi Arabia and Russia will return to the negotiating table any time soon, so we expect little softening in either’s stance.”

US shale may be able to sell to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at relatively high prices, but with supply now exceeding demand by more than 20 million barrels a day, those stores could fill within three to four months.

“Storage is profitable at the moment, as the futures market has moved into “super contango”. However, oil has had its worst quarter ever in dollar terms, but single-digit oil is still a possibility,” Mr Jones said.

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Following Russia and Saudi Arabia ramping up oil production as demand for oil falls, consumers could be the major winners as the price of petroleum drops to single digits, industry experts have suggested.

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Financial education and tactical super investments are crucial if we want to make a dent in gender inequality in retirement, writes Helen Baker.

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According to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, on average, women retire with half the super of men ($230,907 versus $454,211). When a woman’s ability to service debt and pay expenses is impaired, the outcomes are worse. Between 2011 and 2017, there was a 52 per cent increase in older women contacting homeless agencies, according to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.

The reasons for this are no surprise. On average, women earn less, so they contribute less to super. Women also take on less demanding careers to be more available to the family.

And then there’s the career breaks. Women take time from work, often years, to care for children and the home and now parents and parents-in-law (the sandwich generation). Many return to work part-time. The impact of career breaks ripple throughout a woman’s life.

Low financial literacy also contributes to gender inequality in retirement. An ASIC survey found that 85 per cent of female respondents didn’t understand fundamental investment concepts. In my experience, when educated about financial concepts, women make wise investment decisions. Sadly, women don’t always seek out that knowledge. I’ve sat in many consultations where women started out disengaged, tuning out, but after some drawings and discussion, become focused and confident.

According to the NAB Financial Anxiety Index, women are much more anxious about finances than men. Given the circumstances, it’s not surprising. But there are strategies to use, at various stages of life, to maximise financial security. Many of these involve being tactical with superannuation.

Here are some strategies worth looking into:

1. Maintain your extra super payments when the markets are low. Fear about turmoil in the financial markets leads many to withhold investments. But maintaining – or increasing – your voluntary super payments will earn you more in the long term. When the market comes out the other side of the crisis, you’ll hold more super at the higher value.

2. Co-contribute to super. Regardless of the financial markets, co-contributing to super is a tax efficient investment. It is especially relevant if you are a single woman and can’t take advantage of having two incomes for one household. You just need to meet he criteria.

3. Investigate superannuation splitting or spouse contributions. If a husband has a lot of super and the wife doesn’t think it is possible to move some of his super to hers. I had clients in this situation and moving his super over made him eligible for the aged pension. With a spouse contribution, he can reduce tax and build her super at the same time.

4. Make carry-forward contributions into super. This is when you pay above the regular super contribution cap to make up for periods where you missed the cap. For example, say I stopped working to care for children for two years and didn’t pay anything into my super. Then I came into some money by working again, selling an asset or receiving an inheritance. I can pay my “extra” money into my super to make up for those lost years.

I had a client who divorced and had to sell a property post-settlement. During the marriage, she worked part-time and cared for children. We were able to pay $50,000 from the sale of the property into her super as a carry-forward payment. This way, she avoided a significant capital gains tax bill.

5. Diversify investments. As a general rule, I always encourage investment diversity. Women are naturally more risk averse than men. Spreading money across hundreds, or thousands, of investments decreases risk. Knowing about investing in shares versus managed funds is key to this strategy.

There are concrete, seemingly insurmountable, reasons for gender inequality in retirement. The way to tackle these is with solid strategies. The earlier these start the better. Unfortunately, many women find out the reality of their situation too late. Whether single or not, becoming educated and involved in your financial plan is a step towards security.

Helen Baker is a licensed Australian financial adviser and author. 

Note that this is general advice only and you should seek advice specific to your circumstances.

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Financial education and tactical super investments are crucial if we want to make a dent in gender inequality in retirement, writes Helen Baker.

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The corporate watchdog has written a letter to Australia’s real estate bodies, expressing concern that some real estate agents are offering unlicensed financial advice to vulnerable tenants.

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Tim Mullaly, ASIC executive director – financial service enforcement, has issued the letter to the real estate institutes in each state, warning that some real estate agents are advising tenants to apply for early release of their superannuation.

“ASIC is aware that some real estate agents are advising tenants who are unable to pay their rent, or who may find themselves in such a situation in future, to consider applying for early release of their superannuation,” Mr Mullaly said.

“Recent media reports and social media commentary outlining this conduct by some real estate agents is of significant concern to ASIC and, we would hope, you.

“As you are no doubt aware, as part of the federal government’s COVID-19 economic response package, the Australian Taxation Office has announced it will implement a measure to allow individuals affected by COVID-19 to access their superannuation early, up to $10,000 in 2019-2020 and a further $10,000 in 2020-2021.”

Mr Mullaly said the primary concerns ASIC has with agents acting in this regard is that such conduct may constitute unlicensed financial advice in contravention of section 911A of the Corporations Act, or not be in the best interests of individuals in contravention of section 961B of the Corporations Act.

He highlighted how “financial advice must only be provided by qualified and licensed financial advisers, or financial counsellors, not by real estate agents who neither hold the requisite licence nor are an authorised representative of an Australian Financial Services Licensee.”

“The Corporations Act imposes significant penalties for a contravention of section 911A. For individuals, this can be a maximum of five years imprisonment and/or a fine of up to $126,000 (600 penalty units), and for corporations, a fine of up to $1,260 million dollars (6,000 penalty units).

“Tenants facing financial difficulty need sound financial guidance and, potentially, debt counselling. Specifically pointing them to and recommending them to consider the specific possibility of accessing superannuation is, again, likely to amount to a breach of the act.”

The letter said ASIC intends to monitor the situation closely and won’t hesitate to crack down on agents should they be found to be providing unlicensed financial advice.

“We will be raising these concerns with the relevant state regulatory bodies and will be writing directly to firms where it is alleged or brought to our attention that they have breached the law,” Mr Mullaly added.

“If contraventions of the licensing requirements of the Corporations Act are found, ASIC will not hesitate to act swiftly to protect vulnerable consumers.

“If real estate agents are of the view that they need to give guidance to a tenant regarding their financial affairs, they should consider referring tenants to information available on the ASIC MoneySmart website.”

 

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator"]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2020-04-03 01:25:09" ["slug"]=> string(62) "14927:real-estate-agents-warned-not-to-advise-tenants-on-super" ["parent_slug"]=> string(16) "284:invest-money" ["catslug"]=> string(10) "312:advice" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#3513 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(403) "

The corporate watchdog has written a letter to Australia’s real estate bodies, expressing concern that some real estate agents are offering unlicensed financial advice to vulnerable tenants.

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We’ve all heard the COVID-19 crisis is “unprecedented” in the way it has affected economies the world over, so how are 10 sectors faring at the moment? An equities asset manager weighs in.

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The head of Australian equities at Nikko Asset Management, Brad Potter, has commented that the COVID-19 crisis and related mass shutdowns are “placing enormous pressure on the earnings, cash flows and balance sheets” of any number of companies.

It’s a tough situation to navigate, with Mr Potter conceding that “given how fast the situation is changing, including government intervention, we expect our views to also change”.

Despite the challenges, the equities expert has provided some commentary on how the current situation is impacting a number of sectors:

1. Banks

Recent government support packages will allow sometime before bad debts ramp up; however, Mr Potter did concede that SMEs “are simply more vulnerable to the shutdown”.

But with the banks themselves having more than twice as much capital as they had going into the GFC and less exposure to property and more exposure to mortgages, “they should get through without raising more capital”.

2. Retail

According to the expert, non-discretionary retailers – especially those focused on home consumption – should do reasonably well.

“Retailers that sell into cafés and restaurants will be negatively impacted, but few retailers are overly exposed to this sector,” he commented.

From Mr Potter’s perspective, the biggest risk that is facing both retail and the banks is a longer form of shutdown.

3. Gaming

“While gaming is perceived to be relatively defensive and gaming revenue in Australia as a whole was still positive throughout the GFC, the impact from the COVID-19 has negatively impacted the gaming sector substantially – more than the broader market,” Mr Potter has said.

In saying this, those within this sector that have diversified into online channels are seeing some offsetting benefit.

This is due to patrons seeking out alternative forms of entertaining while social distancing.

4. Diversified financial

There’s a “saving grace” Mr Potter has credited to keeping the diversified financial sector buoyant during this challenging period.

“Many of these companies run net cash balances, and so have minimal balance sheet risk.”

Therefore, he highlighted that while there is substantial short-term pain, “once markets return to normal (whenever and whatever that may look like), many of these companies will be in a position to move forward”.

5. Infrastructure

While infrastructure stocks such as toll roads, airports and gas pipelines are generally perceived as defensive and “relatively immune to an economic slowdown”, Mr Potter said COVID-19 is “completely changing the way individuals go about their day-to-day routine”.

“To state the obvious, these are not normal market conditions.”

As a result, the equities expert said many of these companies “may need to turn to equity investors to shore up their balance sheet if the debt markets experience a GFC-like freeze”.

6. Real estate

“We expect retail to perform poorly during this period as landlords will pull out all stops to keep vacancy in their centres down – think rent relief or escalated capital contributions as more tenants turnover,” it was outlined.

Mr Potter highlighted that “assets with a higher discretionary composition will be hit harder by the COVID-19 crisis, with the effect of flowing directly into rental income as well as ancillary income such as car parking and advertising fees”.

In saying this, Mr Potter did suggest industrial should still hold up fine, while the trend towards e-commerce looks likely to continue.

7. General insurance

Mr Potter is expectant of general insurance being “somewhat defensive in this current environment, as it has during past economic downturns”.

“Commercial insurance is not quite as defensive as personal, because businesses can look to reduce premium costs via reducing the scope of their insurance,” he outlined.

He considered that the building materials sector is likely to be significantly impacted by COVID-19.

8. Oil and gas

Facing “unprecedented” pressure from simultaneous events on the supply and the demand side, Mr Potter explained that “the economic slowdown from global governments curtailing activity in an attempt to slow the spread of COVID-19 will see oil use in air and land transport severely curbed, though the quantum of volume loss is difficult to determine, given uncertainty around the duration of the slowdown in activity”.

He has observed that at current oil prices, most major supply participants are losing cash, or are requiring to either draw down on sovereign treasury reserves or put austerity measures in place to curb the fiscal bleeding.

Looking more long-term, the equities expert said Nikko AM continues to believe that the world requires higher oil prices to incentivise replacement supply from higher-cost conventional sources, such as ultra-deep water.

9. Mining

Mr Potter said the COVID-19 crisis is creating “significant but quite diverse issues for the mining sector”.

He noted that base metal prices are suffering on the weakened and uncertain global economic outlook, while bulk commodities, in particular steel-making inputs, iron ore and coking coal, have held up remarkably well.

“Fortunately, most of the sector has relatively low gearing and should be able to weather current events,” he considered.

“Like the oil sector, the sell-off has seen substantial value emerge from the miners. Most current base metal prices are biting deep into cost curves, which should provide price support over the longer term.”

10. Healthcare

“Although healthcare is typically perceived as being a relatively defensive sector, the reality is that times of economic weakness do impact demand for healthcare services,” Mr Potter conceded.

He observed a decline in GP visits, which will flow-on to pathology and radiology volumes and in time, impact sleep testing and elective surgery demand.

Unaffected areas include life-saving medication and ventilation manufacture.

Looking forward, Mr Potter said beyond a period of weaker demand associated with the current shutdown, “the prospects for different participants will vary according to their exposure to [the] broad] economic environment that results and their reliance on government funding”.

“Certainly, government indebtedness will be higher in most, if not all countries, meaning healthcare budgets will be under greater pressure.”

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Here’s how it’s affecting 10 of the biggest industries." 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We’ve all heard the COVID-19 crisis is “unprecedented” in the way it has affected economies the world over, so how are 10 sectors faring at the moment? An equities asset manager weighs in.

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Economies worldwide could begin recovering in just six months if two conditions were fulfilled, a CEO has considered.

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Nigel Green is the CEO and founder of financial advisory organisation deVere Group.

He is arguing that the rolling out of mass testing now and a guarantee from governments to support demand would see a move towards recovery within half a year.

His positioning came as stocks held steady on Tuesday after previously rallying on the tentative indicators that the Chinese economy is stabilising, before dropping again on Wednesday as a result of the worsening situation in the United States.

According to Mr Green, “the economic fallout of COVID-19 is as severe as it is unpredictable”.

“No one knows for sure the full of extent of the impact of the public health emergency on the world economy, but a significant downturn is, unfortunately, almost inevitable,” he conceded.

This was before noting that signs from countries where lockdown restrictions are now being eased “suggest that the economic downturn could be relatively short-lived”.

But this hinges on certain factors coming into play “sooner rather than later”.

“Indeed, I believe that the global economy is likely to be headed for recovery from a coronavirus-triggered downturn within six months — but only if mass testing is rolled out now and governments guarantee to support demand,” he continued.

With most of the world currently in the phase one of lockdown, Mr Green said this is, of course, “dramatically slowing economies as both supply and demand are hit”.

According to the CEO, “the next phase, phase two, needs to be mass testing”.

“An aggressive mass testing agenda, the likes of which could soon happen in Germany, according to reports, would allow potentially millions of people to leave lockdown early, get back to work and help kick-start economies,” he explained.

If mass testing is implemented, Mr Green said we can expect to see supply increase.

“But what about the other essential factor: demand? Without it, economies will continue their downward trajectory,” he continued, stating that the coronavirus is proving to be a “hammer blow” to consumer confidence.

“This is why it is essential that governments around the world continue and increase their unprecedented support measures for these unprecedented times.”

He said that G20 leaders must remain committed to fulfilling their pledge to do “whatever it takes” to minimise the social and economic fallout.

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Economies worldwide could begin recovering in just six months if two conditions were fulfilled, a CEO has considered.

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Investors could see dividend payments fall by a third or more over the short term, as the fallout from COVID-19 has a bigger impact on dividends than the global financial crisis, an investment manager has warned.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(4592) "

AMP Capital has made the forecast, saying while shareholders will suffer, the cuts will help companies save money and ultimately help their survival over the long run as businesses recover. 

Revenues in the Australian economy are drying up as the tightened restrictions on going outside amid the pandemic keep consumers and workers at home. 

AMP Capital Australian equities portfolio manager Dermot Ryan highlighted while the outlook is currently bleak, it is for the short term.

“Remember this crisis will pass. In AMP Capital’s view, it’s prudent to value companies on a mid-cycle three-year basis, so you can calmly look through the short-term pause to find companies that can grow their dividends in normal times,” Mr Ryan said.

“We believe this favours long-term investors. Further, there are pockets of real value on offer in the market now. Investors that can may consider adding selectively.”

Despite a weaker outlook, dividends announced in February have been paid, there have been high levels of franking and, up until now, it had been a good financial year for payouts, AMP Capital reported.

Banks and REITs are the main sectors left to pay large dividends before the end of the financial year, but both sectors are expected to cut their payouts sharply in the second quarter due to the knock-on effect of rent and mortgage abatements. The sectors will need capital to service their own debts as they carry high debt loads. 

“The virus outbreak and lockdown response have also dramatically slowed economic activity in sectors such as travel and aviation. The consumer impact has spread to retail, media and gaming, which are unlikely to pay any more dividends this year,” Mr Ryan said.

“Keeping precious working capital is key as companies move to preserve cash by temporarily standing down workers, negotiating rental abatements with landlords and reducing outgoings,” Mr Ryan said.

“It is only reasonable that dividends are crimped to preserve cash, too, particularly as debt costs for non-investment grade companies spike.”

Companies that have strong balance sheets may still have the ability to pay dividends, but AMP Capital has recommended management to make “prudent decisions” in allocating that cash and to prioritise the long-term operations of their company. 

Buybacks have not been spared, with both Qantas and Viva Energy announcing buybacks, only to later cancel them. 

However, while dividends lag with activity, capital raisings may be a “happy hunting ground for new equity investments”. Mr Ryan has said investors should look for companies with fixed balance sheets and set up for an upswing in profits and dividends ahead.

“Remember, this is transitory and the crisis will pass and profits and dividends will bounce back,” Mr Ryan said. 

“Shareholders could consider valuing companies on a mid-cycle three-year basis so they can calmly look through the short-term pause to find companies that can grow their dividends in normal times.”

The crisis will favour long-term investors, he said, particularly if they’re able to select equities with “pockets of real value in the market”. 

AMP Capital has favoured investment in essential services, supermarkets, infrastructure, packaging, hospitals and aged care. 

It also expects telecommunications and service providers to do well as households increase their mobile and broadband packages and carriers start their 5G capex spending. 

“With the Australian dollar at a multi-year low and uncertainty globally, we think our energy, mining and even wine industries will benefit from this new currency tailwind,” Mr Ryan said.

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Investors could see dividend payments fall by a third or more over the short term, as the fallout from COVID-19 has a bigger impact on dividends than the global financial crisis, an investment manager has warned.

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