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Investment does not exist in a vacuum; no one has ever made an investment decision devoid of either following advice or going against it. Here’s one financial advice group’s 10 commandments – whether you follow their guidance or not is up to you! 

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Financial advice provider Stanford Brown has released its own guide on “The Ten Golden Rules of Investment”.

According to the company, the traditional financial planning model states a number of “incontrovertible truths”, with these truths including: “Markets are efficient and can’t be predicted; bubbles don’t exist; equities always outperform in the long run; past returns are an excellent guide to the future; and [that] it’s all about ‘time in the market, not timing the market’.”

Instead, Stanford Brown counters such a model with its own belief that “past returns are often a terrible guide to the future; that bubbles regularly form; that the madness of crowds is endemic; that predicting short-term returns is strictly for fraudsters and economists; and knowing what your mates at the club have done can really hurt your returns”.

To help clear the air, the financial advice group has offered up its own “golden rules of investment”, which we’ve outlined below.

1. History doesn’t repeat itself – but it does rhyme

Stanford Brown has noted the “remarkable” similarity of the equity cycle after the Great Depression of the 1930s, the oil shock of the 1970s and the market crash of 1987. 

“Markets are the collective actions of humans, who nearly always respond in the same way,” it was outlined.

“The cycle reaches its zenith with predictable delusional euphoria that ‘this time it’s different’, followed swiftly by denial, capitulation and despair.”

This time it’s not different, said Stanford Brown, who explained that “our behavioural biases always conspire against our investment success”.

“If something can’t go on forever, it will stop.”

2. Keep things as simple as possible… but not too simple

The future return on any asset class is the sum of three different factors: the income yield, plus the forecast growth in that income, plus the change in market sentiment as denoted by the price-to-earnings ratio.

For Stanford Brown, this is just as true for property as it is for bonds and equities.

“Dividends and dividend growth are what matters in the long run, not PE ratios.”

3. The long term is easier to predict than the short term

“Don’t ask us where we think the market is going this year. We don’t know,” the advisers said.

But neither does anyone else, “though it doesn’t stop most market commenters from offering their ‘expert’ opinion”, they continued.

It’s a different story for 10-year projections, with Stanford Brown admitting that “the probability of us being right will be vastly improved”.

Why are they so much more accurate?

Referring back to golden rule number one, “markets rhyme and people are predictable”.

4. Valuations almost always mean revert

What goes up, must come down.

Stanford Brown has referred to this as “one of the most golden of all the rules”.

What makes it more difficult to follow is that you rarely know when.

The price-and-earnings ratio of the Australian equity market has averaged “about 16 times” over the past hundred years, it was outlined.

The guide also indicated that a “PE ratio substantially above that [average] is likely to act as a long-term headwind to share prices, and vice versa”.

Similarly, “the performance of a typical fund manager also means reverts”.

Stanford Brown conceded that “last year’s top performers are often next year’s dogs”.

5. Keep fees and taxes to a minimum

“One of the best ways your friendly neighbourhood adviser can justify his fees is to do something; sell a share, buy another, find a new fund etc.”

Stanford Brown said more often than not, this activity will merely eat away at the portfolio’s value and generate trading fees.

It cited “overwhelming evidence” that excessive trading reduces portfolio returns.

6. Things are not always as they seem

In reality, “there are no such things as ‘defensive’ assets and ‘growth’ assets – there is a line stretching from government-guaranteed bank deposits to speculative penny stocks, and every asset sits somewhere on that line”, Stanford Brown has advised.

“As the price of any asset class climbs, not only does its future return diminish but it also becomes more risky,” it offered by way of explanation.

7. Be the devil’s advocate, not his friend

Stanford Brown has hailed its own investment process here, noting itself as “contrarian” in its style and “forever scanning markets for unloved assets where all the bad news is fully priced in”.

“If we believe an asset class has a poor future return profile, we will remove it,” it said.

According to the group, “this may lead to periods of underperformance (more likely in roaring bull markets) but in the past has produced more stable portfolios over the cycle”.

8. Don’t copy your mates at the golf club

Stanford Brown has commented that “we all know him – the guy who insists on telling you about his latest biotech stock purchase that tripled in value last week alone”.

“What we also know is that he is omitting to tell you about all the dreadful trades he has made,” the guide continued.

It cited the Dalbar study which revealed the average American retail investor underperformed the stock market by 8 per cent each year over a 20-year period… but why?

This is where rule number one again comes into things: “Investors rarely get greedy when others are fearful, nor do they worry when others are greedy.”

9. Cash will destroy your wealth in the long term

Quoting Tacitus, “the desire for safety stands in the way of every noble enterprise”, and Stanford Brown has noted how pervasive the desire for safety is among many investment portfolios.

It simply stated, “Safety stands in the way of success.”

10. If all your eggs are in one basket, watch the basket

Far too much attention is placed solely on the returns achieved by a portfolio, it was stated.

Considering risk to be as important as returns, Stanford Brown has emphasised the importance of performance under various market conditions, despite suggesting that “few notice the route taken to achieve those returns”.

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Investment does not exist in a vacuum; no one has ever made an investment decision devoid of either following advice or going against it. Here’s one financial advice group’s 10 commandments – whether you follow their guidance or not is up to you! 

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With the phenomenon of “Baby Boomerangers” seeing a number of Australians either wanting or needing to return to the workforce, an expert has highlighted some of the barriers facing this generation in their pursuit of productivity.

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William Burkitt, an innovation leader in the post-retirement space at Mercer, told nestegg that “ageism is rife” in Australian workplaces despite longer lifespans and a search for purpose seeing more older individuals wanting to return or stay in the workforce.

“The Australian Bureau of Statistics came out with employment stats in September – those stats showed that the age cohort in Australia that is growing fastest in terms of workforce participation as well as part-time jobs growth as well as unemployment are all the 65 years and over age cohort,” he outlined.

In addition, for full-time employed workers, “the growth for 65 and over was 11 per cent in the last 12 months, to all ages of only 3 per cent growth” in comparison.

Part-time employed individuals is the same, with Mr Burkitt having noted 11 per cent growth for the 65 and over age group in contrast with just 2.4 per cent across all age groups.

But “the really sad one” for the post-retirement leader was that “unemployment growth for 65 years and over grew 27.9 per cent in the last 12 months”.

These are people who want to work but can’t find jobs, he flagged.

In contrast, across all age groups, unemployment actually fell by 1.1 per cent in 12 months.

“That’s just staggering,” according to Mr Burkitt, who also cited research from Mercer that showed “older experienced workers are 25 times less likely than a younger jobseeker to get an interview for the same job”.

“Unfortunately, ageism is rife,” he said.

“Often it’s unintended, but it still exists – and 98 per cent of organisations have not prioritised tackling our ageing society as a driver of opportunity and also coverage for risk.”

It’s as much of a problem for “Baby Boomerangers” wanting to get back into the workforce as much as it is for Baby Boomers who are still working.

According to Mr Burkitt, “More often than not, [when] training is offered within a workplace, it’s typically offered to the younger to middle-aged generations often with the attitude that an experienced worker isn’t going to be around much longer, so it’s not money well spent.”

“Whereof an employer takes the attitude [and] approach – and looks at experienced workers being able to bring certain skills to a workplace such as stability, being able to mentor, having decades of experience in whatever field it is, they can take on certain roles that add to the productivity and profitability of an organisation that complements the more ambitious, up-and-coming younger generations.”

With demographic changes already coming through, Mr Burkitt said, “There’s this gap that exists now between organisations’ preparedness and the reality of the ageing society.”

“It’s a real problem.”

“What actually needs to happen across our organisations and society is that conversations need to be started earlier [around retirement or work planning],” the leader said.

“At the moment, the employee is scared to raise that they’re thinking about retiring or would like to do some training to look at another job and keep working, and the employer is kind of just hoping that the employee retires at 60 to 65 like they used to,” he said.

“So, this conversation doesn’t happen early enough.”

If the conversation were to occur earlier, “it can be a very well-planned transition, whether the experienced worker is retiring or retraining into a different role”.

“It’s not in anyone’s interest to retire underestimating what it takes to have an enjoyable retirement and then be forced back into work, because then this emotional aspect comes into it which is predominantly negative.”

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With the phenomenon of “Baby Boomerangers” seeing a number of Australians either wanting or needing to return to the workforce, an expert has highlighted some of the barriers facing this generation in their pursuit of productivity.

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There are two reasons why many of today’s Baby Boomers are only retiring for a short space of time before returning to the workforce, according to a post-retirement expert.

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The term used to describe the phenomenon, according to Mercer’s William Burkitt, is the “Baby Boomeranger”, and there are two major factors to explain the phenomenon of why Australia’s Baby Boomers are retiring only to return to a workplace.

“The Baby Boomer generation is the first one that has a lot longer life expectancy, and they’ve also not necessarily had really hard manual labour jobs,” Mr Burkitt noted.

As a result, they’re physically able to work longer.

And with a standard retirement age that sits around 65 years old, he said “they could still have 20 to 30 years in retirement ahead of them, which is a very, very long time to be retired and not doing anything”.

Mr Burkitt highlighted how Baby Boomers’ parents and grandparents had a life expectancy that was only mid to late 60s and early 70s, where “if you retired in your early 60s, retirement was only five to 10 years rather than 20 to 30 years”.

For the expert, it means Baby Boomers are grappling with new challenges from both a purpose perspective and a financial perspective.

The financial reason

At this point in time, Mr Burkitt outlined, “There is quite a bit of financial stress in Australia, and it’s hidden in quite a lot of respects.”

“We’re not in a formal recession, but different cohorts in Australia and retirees are finding [that] they haven’t necessarily experienced any wages growth for quite a long time,” he indicated.

“There’s research that shows employees’ remuneration and wages peak in their mid-to-late 40s – and so after that point in your 50s and 60s, your salaries decline.”

When coupled with the stagnant wages growth Australia has experienced over the last five to 10 years, plus rising CPI costs across some core goods and services that retirees need, “there have been these forces that have made it financially quite tough for retirees and hence there’s a lot of stress out there for them”, Mr Burkitt said.

“I think that’s the key reason at the moment.”

This driver to becoming a “Baby Boomerang” is often easy to identify and “driven out of necessity”, Mr Burkitt said, and is often triggered pretty quickly after reaching what the perceived or the planned retirement age is.

Oftentimes, the retirement leader said it can see individuals forced into jobs they don’t necessarily like or are passionately motivated by, “but they’re falling back into it as an Uber driver or within the gig economy or working part-time in call centres and so on”.

The non-financial reason

While acknowledging the financial situation as a driving force for the “Baby Boomeranger” phenomenon, the post-retirement leader was just as wary about the non-financial reasons driving Baby Boomers back into employment.

“People underestimate what work gives them,” Mr Burkitt stated.

“There are probably three main life aspects that people don’t necessarily appreciate fully when they go to retire, and hence they don’t set themselves for success in retirement,” he commented.

The three aspects, according to Mr Burkitt, are having social connection around you all the time, having a purpose to life and a structure to your day.

Where these aspects don’t appear to exist to a retiree, the non-financial motivation to return to work can evoke stronger emotions.

“It typically surprises people when it occurs,” Mr Burkitt commented.

“They don’t expect to be within retirement – which is everyone’s goal – but then find they wake up one day and that they are depressed or the relationship that they have, they’re fighting more or not quite getting on as much with their partner in the house or family.”

“So, that does have a strange emotional response attached to it,” according to Mr Burkitt.

The result, for these “Baby Boomerangers” is that they then go searching for meaning and looking for the next perfect job.

Issues arise, Mr Burkitt noted, when these individuals have not necessarily reskilled and retrained, “so it can take a while to be satisfied with what the next part of their life going to look like”.

No matter the reason for a retiree becoming a “Baby Boomeranger”, he said “what actually needs to happen across our organisations and society is that conversations need to be started earlier” around retirement.

“It’s all about having structured conversations and having them early enough,” he continued.

“I don’t think it’s in anyone’s interest to retire underestimating what it takes to have an enjoyable retirement and then be forced back into work, because this emotional aspect comes into it – which is predominantly negative,” Mr Burkitt said.

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Allianz Retire+ surveyed current and prospective retirees nationwide, revealing that retirees are responding to changing economic conditions by reducing spendings and risk in their portfolios.

“They have less interest in travel and other luxuries, and greater emphasis on maintaining independence, staying in their home, being healthy and caring for family,” Allianz Retire+ head of customer experience Jacqui Lennon said.

Ms Lennon believes a confluence of economic and demographic trends are influencing retiree intentions. 

“Many retirees have lived frugally over the years. But with term-deposit interest rates at record lows and investment returns falling, more retirees are having to cut back,” she noted. 

The result is even greater spending and investment conservatism in retirement. 

Ms Lennon also noted that retirees are living longer, with different social expectations to generation gone by meaning the needs of retirees are changing.

“Many are worried that their money will not last as long as they do or that they will have far lower living standards in the final quarter of their life. They are reducing spending now, so their money can last into their 80s, 90s or beyond,” Ms Lennon explained.

What can retirees do?

Ms Lennon said greater investment conservatism in retirement is understandable, but the risk is not achieving sufficient returns to maintain lifestyle for an increasing lifetime.

“The investment industry needs to respond to changing retiree needs,” said Ms Lennon. 

“As people live longer, a higher allocation to growth assets such as shares may be needed to generate sufficient returns to ensure their portfolio can go the distance. 

“However, retirees are naturally concerned about equity volatility. They don’t want the stress of sharemarket falls they cannot recover from.”

Ms Lennon believes investors should choose an approach, such as stop losses, that eliminates downside risk while allowing retirees to grow their funds.

For example, a 60-year-old nearing retirement might choose a -10 per cent floor (with a corresponding cap) because he or she can tolerate higher risk. 

If Australian shares fall 20 per cent that year, their loss is limited to 10 per cent. The maximum potential return that year will be subject to the corresponding cap, she concludes.

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Australian retirees are spending less amid fears they are financially unprepared for retirement or that an economic slowdown could impact their retirement, new research has found.

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A lawyer has warned Australians of the ease with which hackers can drain an individual’s life savings online and the risks associated with cyber crime.

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Nicole Murdoch, a principal lawyer at Brisbane’s Eaglegate Lawyers, said the latest figures show that cyber criminals are preying on individuals and businesses every 10 minutes, “trying to drain victims’ bank accounts”.

She said the rising prevalence of cyber crime is seeing Australians lose millions of dollars a year to thieves and online scammers.

There have been more than 13,500 reports of cyber crime to the Australian Cyber Security Centre (ACSC) in the past three months, the lawyer noted.

While romance and bank scams are the frontrunners in the cyber theft world, Ms Murdoch said “email scams have become so sophisticated, honest people can easily be hoodwinked by a scammer”.

The lawyer cited the case where a 65-year-old retiree reportedly lost $66,000 when he transferred money to what he thought was a legitimate bank account after buying a car from a dealership.

“He received an email with an invoice and bank details so he paid only to later discover either a cyber criminal had got into the dealership’s computer network and sent the email, or his email account could have been hacked.”

“Sadly, stories like this are becoming commonplace,” Ms Murdoch said.

“Retirees especially are being targeted by cyber criminals who claim to be from banks or internet service providers, claiming your computer has a virus they can remove if you give them control of your system,” she explained.

Types of scams

Ms Murdoch highlighted that romance scams involve a criminal cultivating an online relationship with a person over several months before persuading them to transfer money for medical treatment or essential goods.

Bank scams involve a person being sent a text or email that appears to be from their bank, requesting login details to fix a problem with their credit card or online banking. If the person supplies the details, it allows the cyber criminal access to the bank account.

The lawyer also indicated that compromised emails “are one of the top issues being reported to the ACSC by businesses”.

“For example, a criminal hacks into a business email account and pretends to be a legitimate employee and sends an email to another employee who might be the person who make online payments and trick them into making an online payment to the criminal,” she explained.

Ransomware is also prolific, with Ms Murdoch commenting that criminals can take control of your computer system and make you pay a ransom to get your computer system back under your control again.

Protecting yourself

The lawyer has advised that “the safe option is: never supply your log on details or passwords or bank account details to a caller or in response to an email unless you have initiated the contact with that institution”.

She urges Australians to regularly change their banking passwords or financial apps and create passwords that cannot easily be guessed.

Ms Murdoch also advises against using the same password across all apps and accounts.

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Australians are being encouraged to have their say on the state of the current retirement income system as part of the independent review currently taking place.

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The Treasury has released its consultation paper for the retirement income review currently taking place, with the paper outlining some of the issues the panel will be considering and is intended as a guide for those making a submission.

“The panel welcomes contributions and invites submissions from the Australian community on the issues and material it should examine as it considers the current state of the retirement income system and how it will perform in the future,” it outlined.

The consultation paper outlines 26 questions as a guide for community responses, but conceded that submissions are not limited to these issues.

It also elaborated on each area the retirement income review intends to probe, providing guidance and clarification on definitions, and which will enable it to establish “a fact base to improve the understanding of how the retirement income system operates”.

Questions are grouped under headings of: the retirement income system; the purpose of the system and role of the pillars; the changing Australian landscape; principles for assessing the system; as well as the system’s adequacy, equity, sustainability and cohesion.

The consultation paper comes after the September announcement from the Morrison government that it would be seeking an independent review of Australia’s retirement income system. 

As at 25 November, there are 71 days left for the public to have their say before the 3 February 2020 deadline.

The review is looking at the “three pillars” of the existing retirement income system, being the means-tested Age Pension, compulsory superannuation and voluntary savings such as home ownership.

It comes after the Productivity Commission recommended such a review in its own report, Superannuation: Assessing Efficiency and Competitiveness.

 

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