Resources

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Promoted by Thinktank

When Thinktank, a specialist commercial and residential property lender, recently closed its first residential mortgage-backed securitisation (RMBS) issue for $500 million, it validated a strategy of diversifying from small commercial loans into the residential debt market.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(5851) "

In a COVID-19 environment, this diversification has allowed the company to weather the pandemic’s economic impact, to the extent that in the 12 months to 30 June 2021 it settled more than $1 billion in loans for the first time – a 33% increase on the previous financial year and an important milestone.

Back in 2006, when Thinktank opened its doors, residential debt was not on the radar. Instead, small commercial loans of up $3 million (although most transactions were much smaller) for the self-employed, professionals and small to medium-sized employers (SMEs) were the focus. The founding leadership believed there was a niche here for a conservative lender that understood this market better than the major banks and could deliver better loan products and faster turnaround times.

So it proved. When Thinktank closed its sixth and largest commercial mortgage-backed securitisation (CMBS) transaction of $600 million in October last year, it took the total of rated bonds issued to $2 billion. As with the other issues, it met with keen institutional demand in domestic (77%) and overseas (23%) markets and confirmed the company’s reputation as a prominent capital markets issuer in the commercial property asset class.

But obviously these self-employed, professionals and SMEs also want residential finance, and Thinktank, via its deep and trusted network of mortgage brokers and aggregators, is well-positioned to provide this as an adjacent product. By 2018, residential loans had steadily grown to comprise between 10% and 15% of the book. 

However, COVID has seen that percentage of loans grow to about 50% today. Two factors have been at play. Commercial finance activity fell. A pandemic that was understandably shaking business confidence and shrinking the economy inevitably meant a slowing demand for commercial loans. Across the market, commercial lending activity initially fell by around 40-50%, and borrower hardship support grew. 

But to the market’s surprise, and, to be honest, Thinktank’s initial surprise, residential lending quickly picked up, so much so that calls have emerged for regulatory intervention to take some heat out of the market where the higher risks are perceived. The fact the company funded more than $1 billion in loans in the 2021 financial year can be largely ascribed to a combined increase in residential and SMSF lending, more than compensating for the temporary decline in commercial lending. 

Although the commercial property market generally has been recovering well since the initial shock of COVID-19 (retail remains a weak spot while some individual market segments such as industrial have remained solid throughout), it still lags demand for residential finance.

It was in this environment that Thinktank launched its first RMBS in August 2021, with the final ratings assigned by Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings being AAA(sf) for the $400m Class A1 Notes and the $50 million Class A2 Notes, while the $16 million Class B Notes, the $9 million Class C Notes, the $6.5 million Class D Notes, the A$3.5 million Class E Notes and the A$2.5 million Class F Notes had ratings of AA(sf), A(sf), BBB(sf), BB(sf) and B(sf), respectively. 

Pricing was fully disclosed with the Class A1 Notes set at a margin of 0.90% above the 30-Day Bank Bill Swap Rate. The margins above the 30-Day Bank Bill Swap Rate for the remaining Notes ranged from 1.05% for Class A2 to 6.3% for Class F.  The bonds were placed with 21 institutional investors of which 83% were domestically based and 17% offshore. Real money investors represented 57% of the total amount issued while banks accounted for 43%. 

Institutional support for the company’s first RMBS issue was strong, with the transaction launched at $400 million but growing to $500 million due to keen demand.  

This reflects the ongoing strength and stable performance of the Australian securitisation market. The nature of losses seen overseas in the wake of the GFC simply didn’t happen in Australia. For Thinktank’s own part, investors have not experienced a single loss from its six CMBS transactions of more than $2 billion issued to date.

Thinktank is looking at two or three new securitisation transactions in 2022, potentially two residential and one commercial, each of which is expected to be larger in size than preceding transactions. Thinktank is confident of strong underlying and ongoing institutional demand for forthcoming issues, further enhancing its reputation in a still growing and important market that is a vital part of the supply of credit to Australian business and consumer borrowers which, in turn, offers product diversification and significantly adds to competition with the country’s major banks.

 

 

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Promoted by Thinktank

When Thinktank, a specialist commercial and residential property lender, recently closed its first residential mortgage-backed securitisation (RMBS) issue for $500 million, it validated a strategy of diversifying from small commercial loans into the residential debt market.

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Will the Stage 2 tax cuts boost your tax return? Where should investors be looking as the economy reopens?" ["alias"]=> string(148) "what-to-expect-as-the-end-of-lockdown-looms-will-the-stage-2-tax-cuts-boost-your-tax-return-where-should-investors-be-looking-as-the-economy-reopens" ["introtext"]=> string(547) "

In this episode of The nestegg Podcast, guest host Fergus Halliday checks in with our three experts to talk through the biggest conversations happening around when it comes to the world of superannuation, property, investing and wealth creation.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(1195) "

Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, talks to us about how Sydney and Melbourne’s property sectors are faring as the light at the end of the lockdown tunnel begins to come into sight.

Meanwhile, RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, guides us through how investors should approach taking advantage of the economy as reopens. How do you spot a company with strong fundamentals?

Lastly, tax and super guru Timothy Munro tells us why consumers should expect a better tax return than usual in 2021. We also talk through whether the government should lead by example when it comes to paid parental leave and superannuation, and touch on recent suggestions by Australian lawmakers that the super sector is affected by cartel-like behaviour.

 
Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured on the next episode.

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In this episode of The nestegg Podcast, guest host Fergus Halliday checks in with our three experts to talk through the biggest conversations happening around when it comes to the world of superannuation, property, investing and wealth creation.

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["introtext"]=> string(353) "

Promoted by Citi Group

Combined, our daily spending adds up to opportunities for investors on a global scale.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(10285) "

The payments industry has always been large but it has not always been on the radar of investors. That’s because it was largely a bank run industry that worked in the background to enact large transactions for institutions.

But over the past decade the decline of cash and cheque transactions and proliferation of micropayments, smartphones, tap and go and other retail and online instant transactions, and the listing of public companies operating and growing in this space, has transformed the industry and placed it solidly within the investor universe.

For those that had yet to catch-up with the evolution of the payments industry, it was thrust into the spotlight in August when US payments giant Square bid $US29 billion for ASX-listed pioneer ‘buy now-pay later’ operator Afterpay.

Further consolidation in the industry is expected as incumbent players, new entrants and fintech’s jostle for a slice multi-trillion-dollar global industry 

 

Consumers want instant, invisible payments

For the consumer it’s all about convenience and speed, with the shift to a truly cashless society given a boost by the preference for cashless transactions by most retailers and the shift to even more online sales as a result of impact s from COVID-19. 

Globally, the payments sector was impacted by closed borders and little travel, with McKinsey expecting 2020 payments revenues to fall $US140 billion or about 7 per cent compared to 2019. With global revenues of about $US2 trillion, the industry has roughly doubled in size over the past decade, and increased its share of banking revenue from 28 per cent in 2010 to 39 per cent in 2019, according to McKinsey. 

It should be noted, retail spending in the payments sector has continued to rise throughout the pandemic as shoppers go online for their needs, from groceries to electronics and gifts. When international borders reopen the payments sector is likely to get a significant boost.

The shift to cashless payments is driving changes amongst traditional incumbents, and it’s occurring in Australia. In the first half of 2020 the big four banks closed 175 branches and removed 2150 ATM’s, according to the August 2020 edition of ATM Marketplace. Like all banks, the big four are ramping up efforts to take their operations digital.

The drive to digital and cashless is not a genie that can be put back in the bottle, and the scope for growth is a long-term upward trend. The proliferation of payment-enabled devices is driving a future of smaller transactions and almost invisible payment flows. 

Increasingly, the most valuable asset in payments is data: Digital payment processing allows financial institutions to better understand their customers. To offer customised services to clients, firms need data, which is only possible to get through updated payment-processing systems. In the financial systems of tomorrow, data-driven personalisation will lead to better experience and service, ultimately leading to larger numbers of customers and revenue. 

There are a number of players worth examining for the opportunity they represent in gaining exposure to this rapidly growing and innovating sector. We highlight three companies our research has focused upon, starting with impacts of the Square acquisition of Afterpay.

 

Square Inc (SQ) 

SQ builds tools to allow businesses and individuals to participate in the economy digitally. Sellers use Square to reach buyers online and in person, manage their business, and access financing. Individuals use Cash App to spend, send, store, and invest money. And TIDAL is a global music and entertainment platform that expands Square’s purpose of economic empowerment to artists.

SQ has been keen to add additional buy now, pay later’ (BNPL) capabilities, which the Afterpay acquisition achieves. For Cash App, we think Afterpay helps improve both user growth and more importantly engagement, as more than 90 per cent of Afterpay’s transaction volume is driven by repeat users.

The deal also helps accelerate Square’s international expansion ambitions. For Afterpay, the deal significantly improves the business’s competitive position adding millions of new merchants and 70 million Cash App users. Risks to closing the deal include a potential competitive bid, which we cannot rule-out but see unlikely, and a lengthy approval process, particularly in the U.S. 

SQ was already a sought after investment before the Afterpay acquisition. From our perspective:

We’re a believer that SQ’s secular growth opportunity is too big to ignore.

The stock has rebounded sharply from its COVID lows, mostly resulting from an acceleration of user adoption/engagement of Cash App, as well as on improving consumer spending data.

New products (consumer credit) and international expansion on the horizon, and perhaps synergistic M&A that accelerates user growth, we find it difficult to see the upside narrative reversing from here.

 

Risks include: 

Increasing competition from disruptive new entrants and/or from well-entrenched traditional players with more resources.

Exposure to heightened merchant fraud risk and exposure to credit losses could lead to an uptick in credit losses.

Any sharp uptick in shareholder dilution associated with Square’s large employee stock option plan.

Driving scale isn’t cheap, but we think the company will be better positioned to drive incremental margin expansion exiting 2021, which in turn will help investments remain proportional and allow for potentially faster scale-ups beyond 2022.

 

Visa Inc 

Founded in 1958 the well-known Visa brand operates in over 200 countries and has a vision to be the best way to pay and be paid in a seamless and secure payment experience. 

We highlight Visa’s many positives, including: 

A strong market position with barriers to entry.

Pricing power.

Operating leverage potential.

Secular growth tailwinds, e.g. global shift to electronic payments, digital commerce, emerging payments channels and B2B growth.

Proven ability to beneficially use solid balance sheet and cash flow. 

The pace of global consumer and corporate post-pandemic spend recovery remains a consideration. However, spending improvement is generally progressing. Continued momentum can lead to outsized earnings growth over the next couple of years, particularly with gradual improvements in cross-border travel.

 

Risks:

At the edge, more investors seem worried about the rise of likely payment alternatives to traditional credit – while Visa often has investments in these areas, it is clearly an area of higher competitive risk.

Regulatory activism can be an episodic threat/risk.

Taking these positives and risks into consideration, we believe an expectation of upper-single-digit to double-digit top-line growth and a mid-to-upper-teens total return over the longer term is reasonable. We believe this and a prospective intermediate-term recovery is attractive, especially for a mega-cap name like Visa.

 

Paypal Holdings Inc

PayPal has remained at the forefront of the digital payment revolution for more than 20 years. By leveraging technology to make financial services and commerce more convenient, affordable, and secure, the PayPal platform has amassed more than 400 million consumers and merchants in more than 200 markets globally.

We like PayPal’s exposure to the rapidly growing digital commerce landscape (off a larger base as a result of the COVID pandemic), and believe it is positioned well to sustain upper-teens or better net revenue growth over the next 2-3 years.

We believe PayPal’s scale, new product introductions and mobile transaction trajectory can sustain a growing network effect. Additionally, use of cash presents M&A optionality to inorganically expand the platform – for continued bolt-on acquisitions for incremental use cases or larger transformative acquisitions that support a holistic commerce-enabling platform.

Major risks include but are not limited to rising competition given the proliferation of payment choices, execution risk (new product rollouts, partnership ramps, etc.,) and importantly also the management of expectations, given the current valuation levels.

Considering these opportunities and risks together, we note that recent results and commentary support the idea of continued robust secular growth at levels that in the near-term could be higher than PayPal’s traditional structural growth rate.

 

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_{This document is distributed in Australia by Citigroup Pty Limited ABN 88 004 325 080, AFSL No. 238098, Australian credit licence 238098. Any advice is general advice only. It was prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Before acting on this advice you should consider if it's appropriate for your particular circumstances. You should also obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement and terms and conditions before you make a decision about any financial product, and consider if it’s suitable for your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial, and taxation advice prior to investing. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.}

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Promoted by Citi Group

Combined, our daily spending adds up to opportunities for investors on a global scale.

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Promoted by Citi Group

COVID-19 has accelerated the use of technologies that help keep us connected, creating a virtual supply chain and expanded digital universe for investors.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(7622) "

There is no doubt that COVID-19 has changed the way we live. As we continue to socially distance, we become more reliant on technology for the way we live, work and shop. This is unlikely to change anytime soon, and these changes present opportunities for investors.

The world is continuing to struggle with the pandemic, as many parts of the world roll in and out of lockdowns. While vaccines are proving to be effective against the Delta variant of the virus for serious illness, individuals are still being urged to socially distance as governments keep a strong focus on minimising case numbers to avoid putting too much pressure on hospitals.

This does not bode well for physical retail stores, which have to balance high rents and low customer traffic. The move to digital ecommerce was one that started before COVID-19 and it is a trend that will no doubt accelerate.

The growth of online shopping benefits more than just online retailers. It will benefit the companies that process the payments and the delivery companies too. All of which are seeing strong year on year earnings growth.

This month we would like to introduce the e-commerce basket which includes Amazon, FedEx, and PayPal. These are some of the largest and well-known companies in the world and for good reason - everyone is addicted to the convenience of their services.

 

Amazon

Amazon is a multinational e-commerce company, and the world's largest retail provider. The company is focused on attracting five distinct customer sets: consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, and content creators. On the consumer/seller side, Amazon provides a platform through which users can buy and sell products in a timely, convenient manner. On the developer/enterprise side, Amazon provides cloud-based, technological infrastructure to various businesses. Amazon also provides other services, such as advertising services and co-branded credit card agreements, and has begun to develop its own consumer products, such as the Kindle. 

In addition to their well-known services for online shopping, Amazon also derives 11 per cent of its revenue from Amazon Web Services (AWS). This is one of the largest cloud computing services in the world that helps host server infrastructure for Amazon, as well as other e-commerce companies.

Although AWS is a relatively small part of Amazon’s net sales, it’s a segment that generates more operating profit than either of the other two segments individually. It’s their higher-margin cash cow business, even though it’s not what most people think of when they think about Amazon. Like most of the other big tech companies, Amazon has more cash than debt, which gives it a robust balance sheet. 

We believe Amazon is leveraging dual-purpose infrastructure (servers, fulfillment centers and web traffic) to profitably sell services to Enterprises. There have been ongoing concerns about anti-trust risk as it pertains to Amazon. However, the US Deportment of Justice has suggested the current laws (Section 2 of the Sherman Act) are quite capable of addressing antitrust concerns. Under prevailing laws, we see few legal risks to Amazon’s business model.

 

PayPal Holdings 

PayPal is a leading payments technology platform that enables digital commerce functionality for over 375 million consumers and merchants globally.

We like PayPal’s exposure to the rapidly growing digital commerce landscape (off a larger base because of the COVID pandemic), and believe it is positioned well to sustain upper-teens or better net revenue growth over the next 2-3 years. 

We believe PayPal’s scale, new product introductions and mobile transaction trajectory can sustain a growing network effect. Additionally, balance sheet strength presents merger and acquisition (M&A) capability for transformative acquisitions, as well as ongoing industry consolidation through bolt-on acquisitions.

Major risks include but are not limited to rising competition from the proliferation of payment choices, execution risk (new product rollouts, partnership ramps, etc.,) and importantly also the management of expectations, given the current valuation levels. 

Considering these opportunities and risks together, we note that recent results and commentary support the idea of continued robust secular growth at levels that in the near-term could be higher than PayPal’s traditional structural growth rate.

 

FedEx Corporation

FedEx is a globally integrated carrier providing delivery of documents, packages, and freight through a supply chain network supported by transportation, businesses and information related services. 

Our analysts expect stabilising and improving global trade trends, accompanied by a surge in ecommerce volumes, and potentially better parcel pricing. This suggests earnings estimates are headed higher.

The company has recently started to reduce their earnings guidance and this has created a buying opportunity, as we believe these lower targets will be easily met in the near future and they will eventually raise targets again, creating a powerful catalyst for future share price growth.

Our view is financials are inflecting positively, as we consider a more positive outlook in which FedEx leverage’s sticky ecommerce growth to drive positive incremental margins. On the express-delivery side, air-cargo tightness and COVID vaccine distribution should bridge the gap to a post-vaccine reflation in global trade and business-to-business (B2B) activity. In the freight segment positive less-than-load (LTL) tonnage should couple with already solid pricing to support double digit margins.

This sector has seen incredible growth throughout the pandemic and continues to grow even as vaccines are rolled out globally. Consumers have spoken loudly and the convenience of online shopping is unbeatable. The fact that we can now shop online, maintain our social distancing, and receive our goods in a timely manner suggest that growth for this sector is in its early innings. We expect these market leaders to keep and grow their dominance given their established networks, infrastructure, and the resilience of their balance sheets.

 

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Author: Peter Moussa, Senior Investment Specialist for Citi 

_{This document is distributed in Australia by Citigroup Pty Limited ABN 88 004 325 080, AFSL No. 238098, Australian credit licence 238098. Any advice is general advice only. It was prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Before acting on this advice you should consider if it's appropriate for your particular circumstances. You should also obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement and terms and conditions before you make a decision about any financial product, and consider if it’s suitable for your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial, and taxation advice prior to investing. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.}

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Promoted by Citi Group

COVID-19 has accelerated the use of technologies that help keep us connected, creating a virtual supply chain and expanded digital universe for investors.

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What’s happening in recent dividend announcements? Did your fund fail the YFYS test?" ["alias"]=> string(135) "could-property-prices-inflate-by-another-20-per-cent-what-s-happening-in-recent-dividend-announcements-did-your-fund-fail-the-yfys-test" ["introtext"]=> string(456) "

In this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja checks in with our three experts to discuss this week’s biggest conversations about super, property and investment.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(1149) "

Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, talks about the current market and its growth prospects, hinting at a “revenge spend” period post-lockdown. Could property prices really inflate by a further 20 per cent?

Meanwhile, RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, talks about the earning season and dividends, delving into how companies decide distribution policy. Find out what is happening in the recent dividend announcements.

Last but not least, tax and super guru Timothy Munro talks us through the results of APRA’s inaugural super test and how engaged members should really be with their super. Timothy also touches on the super splitting law and what it means for relationship breakdowns.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured in the next episode.

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In this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja checks in with our three experts to discuss this week’s biggest conversations about super, property and investment.

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Who really wins from the BHP-Woodside merger?" ["alias"]=> string(106) "what-does-the-nsw-regional-permit-mean-for-property-investors-who-really-wins-from-the-bhp-woodside-merger" ["introtext"]=> string(444) "

On this episode of The nestegg Podcast, guest host Fergus Halliday checks in with our three experts to discuss this week’s biggest conversations about super, property and investment.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["fulltext"]=> string(1295) "

Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, unpacks the implications of the NSW government’s new regional permit system and what it means for the near term within the state’s property market. What should potential buyers and sellers expect from Sydney’s spring selling season, given the ongoing lockdown restrictions?

Meanwhile, RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, breaks down what the BHP-Woodside merger deal means for both parties, plus investors. Could the move make it easier for ESG investors to get a foot in the door on one of the biggest oil and gas giants?

Last but not least, tax and super guru Timothy Munro talks us through whether the Future Fund can cut it in the superannuation space, and what the rise in calls to Australia’s biggest debt hotlines can tell us about the ongoing impacts of the pandemic on everyday consumers.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured on the next episode.

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On this episode of The nestegg Podcast, guest host Fergus Halliday checks in with our three experts to discuss this week’s biggest conversations about super, property and investment.

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