Investment insights

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In a year marked by economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, global deal activity has experienced a notable decline, according to recent findings by GlobalData, a prominent data and analytics company. The report, which analysed data from January to November 2025, reveals a 6% decrease in the total number of deals announced worldwide compared to the same period in 2024. This downturn encompasses mergers and acquisitions (M&A), private equity, and venture financing deals, highlighting the widespread impact of challenging market conditions.

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The analysis of GlobalData’s Deals Database underscores a broad-based decline across all deal types and regions. Aurojyoti Bose, Lead Analyst at GlobalData, provided insights into the factors contributing to this trend. "The contraction in deal activity points to heightened caution in investment decisions amid prevailing geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic challenges, and evolving market dynamics," Bose explained. Despite these challenges, some markets have managed to demonstrate resilience and selective growth, offering a glimmer of hope in an otherwise cautious investment landscape.

The report breaks down the decline in deal activity by type, revealing that the number of M&A deal announcements fell by 6% during the January-November 2025 period compared to the same timeframe in 2024. Venture financing deals experienced a 5% year-on-year decrease, while private equity deals saw the most significant drop, with a 16% decline. These figures illustrate the pervasive nature of the downturn, affecting various facets of the investment landscape.

Regionally, the slowdown in deal activity was evident across the board. North America, which led in deal volume, experienced a relatively mild 3% year-on-year decline. This was largely due to the resilience of the United States, where deal activity fell by just 2%. In contrast, Europe faced the steepest regional contraction, with an 11% decrease, reflecting both cyclical headwinds and ongoing geopolitical complexities.

Asia-Pacific recorded a 5% decline in deal activity, while the Middle East and Africa, along with South and Central America, each saw deal volumes contract by 10%. The varied performance across regions highlights the diverse challenges and opportunities faced by different markets in the current economic climate.

At the country level, the data paints a more nuanced picture of the global investment landscape. India emerged as a standout performer, posting a 4% year-on-year increase in deal activity. In contrast, China recorded a flat performance, indicating stability amid broader regional challenges. Several other markets also outperformed the broader trend, showcasing their structural strengths and resilience.

For instance, Israel, Hong Kong, and Saudi Arabia witnessed growth in the number of deals announced, with increases of 11%, 15%, and 7% respectively during the January-November 2025 period compared to the previous year. These markets have managed to buck the overall trend, highlighting their attractiveness to investors even in uncertain times.

Conversely, several major markets experienced significant declines in deal activity. The United Kingdom saw a 14% drop, while Canada and Germany recorded decreases of 9% and 10% respectively. Australia, France, South Korea, and Brazil also faced declines, with respective decreases of 10%, 6%, 27%, and 8%. These figures underscore the varied impact of global challenges on different economies and their investment landscapes.

Bose emphasised the cautious sentiment prevailing in the market, stating, "While certain markets may still present opportunities, the overall sentiment remains one of caution." The data suggests that investors are navigating a complex and evolving landscape, where geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic challenges, and market dynamics continue to shape investment decisions.

As the global economy grapples with these challenges, the investment community remains vigilant, seeking opportunities in resilient markets while exercising caution in an uncertain environment. The findings from GlobalData provide valuable insights into the current state of global deal activity, shedding light on the factors influencing investment decisions and the regions and markets that are defying the broader trend.

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In a year marked by economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, global deal activity has experienced a notable decline, according to recent findings by GlobalData, a prominent data and analytics company. The report, which analysed data from January to November 2025, reveals a 6% decrease in the total number of deals announced worldwide compared to the same period in 2024. This downturn encompasses mergers and acquisitions (M&A), private equity, and venture financing deals, highlighting the widespread impact of challenging market conditions.

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The investment landscape of 2026 is poised for transformation as five key trends, dubbed the "Furious Five" by CMC Markets, are set to dominate and disrupt markets. These trends encompass artificial intelligence (AI), energy, robotics, defence, and a rising interest in store-of-value assets such as gold and Bitcoin. CMC's latest annual market outlook highlights these secular trends, emphasising their potential to redefine risk, opportunity, and overall market direction.

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Kurt Mayell, Head of Markets at CMC, explained the significance of these trends: "While there is no crystal ball, we have identified five key themes that defined 2025 and will continue to impact markets, for better or worse, in 2026. These macro and sector thematics are poised to shape risk, opportunity and overall market direction and as such have meaningful implications for investors."

AI breakthroughs and bubbles

The AI sector has been a driving force behind market highs in 2025, with big tech companies spending nearly USD$400 billion on AI-related investments. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with industry leaders planning to allocate up to 35% of their annual revenue toward AI initiatives. The increasing demand for compute supply, driven by the rise of agentic AI, is anticipated to exacerbate capacity constraints, requiring significantly more resources than simpler generative AI tasks.

As speculation grows around potential initial public offerings (IPOs) of major private AI firms, including OpenAI, investors are closely monitoring the sector. Mr Mayell noted, "AI embodies both promise and risk. History has shown that asset bubbles don’t burst on schedule. They expand, defy caution, and pop without forewarning. AI bulls would argue that this isn’t 1999 - unlike the dot-com era, today’s AI boom is led by profitable, cash-rich big tech firms that don’t rely solely on AI to drive earnings."

Investors are urged to explore the entire AI ecosystem, including chipmakers, fabricators, infrastructure providers, semiconductor suppliers, and cloud platforms, to identify the right opportunities.

Energy to power the AI revolution

The energy sector is undergoing a dramatic transformation, driven by the AI revolution. Power-hungry AI data centres are reshaping electricity prices, straining ageing grids, and influencing clean energy markets. This shift has also revitalised interest in the nuclear energy sector. Multi-trillion-dollar investment plans announced by leading tech companies are expected to drive massive infrastructure spending, particularly in energy.

"Amid this disruption could emerge both challenges and opportunities across the energy landscape," Mr Mayell said. "The key will be identifying which segments of the market may be best positioned to adapt to this generational realignment. AI has disrupted the energy landscape, pulling investors back into a sector once seen as mature and slow-moving. The energy narrative of 2026 is unlike anything before."

Robotics to scale in 2026

Automation and robotics are set to reshape various industries, including transportation, manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, and corporate workforces. The humanoid robot market is projected to reach $5 trillion by 2050, with over 1 billion robots deployed across factories, logistics hubs, and households.

"Automation and robotics are moving from early adoption to real-world scale in 2026," Mr Mayell stated. "From autonomous vehicles to industrial and surgical robotics, the landscape is shifting from proving the technology to demonstrating profitability and resilience."

Despite the potential for growth, the robotics sector faces uncertainties, including regulatory challenges, training-data limitations, and political scrutiny over job displacement.

New opportunities in defence

The defence sector is undergoing significant changes, with 2026 shaping up to be a defining year for the US's legacy defence contractors. Over the past four years, major contractors like Lockheed Martin, RTX, Boeing, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman have accounted for a substantial portion of the Pentagon's discretionary spending. Critics argue that this concentration has led to complacency and slowed innovation.

In response, the US Department of Defence is implementing sweeping procurement reforms, aiming to collaborate with technology firms from Silicon Valley. "The defence sector is undergoing one of the most consequential industry shifts in decades," Mr Mayell said. "Palantir is a key beneficiary of this, becoming the most valuable defence stock in the world due to its multi-billion dollar US government contracts."

As world military expenditure reaches record highs, investors are advised to remain nimble, as changes in US defence spending could reshape the sector.

Investors rotate into stores of value

In 2025, gold and Bitcoin achieved all-time highs, reviving interest in the "debasement trade." This trend refers to the decline in purchasing power of the US dollar due to inflation and poor fiscal and monetary policies. With persistent inflation and ballooning government debt, the US dollar index fell over 8% against a basket of global currencies. Meanwhile, gold surged to over $4,370 per ounce, and Bitcoin reached a new high above $126,000 before pulling back.

"While the dollar remains dominant, the steady rotation into alternative stores of value points to a world preparing for policy volatility rather than stability," Mr Mayell commented. "As we head into 2026, the key question for investors is whether the debasement argument is strong enough to warrant repositioning portfolios, either for the near term or with a longer horizon in mind."

These five megatrends – AI, energy, robotics, defence, and stores of value – are expected to be structural drivers shaping the global economy in 2026, presenting both opportunities and challenges for investors.

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The investment landscape of 2026 is poised for transformation as five key trends, dubbed the "Furious Five" by CMC Markets, are set to dominate and disrupt markets. These trends encompass artificial intelligence (AI), energy, robotics, defence, and a rising interest in store-of-value assets such as gold and Bitcoin. CMC's latest annual market outlook highlights these secular trends, emphasising their potential to redefine risk, opportunity, and overall market direction.

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Amidst the backdrop of a US government shutdown and lingering economic uncertainties, investors have adopted a neutral stance, as revealed by the latest State Street Institutional Investor Indicators. Released by State Street Markets, the report highlights a decline in the State Street Risk Appetite Index by 0.09 in November. This downturn reflects a cautious approach by investors who are awaiting clearer economic signals before making significant portfolio adjustments.

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Noel Dixon, Senior Macro Strategist at State Street Markets, offered insights into the investor behaviour observed in November. "Several notable trends emerged from investor behaviour in November. Firstly, institutional investors predominantly maintained neutral positions. The uncertainty arising from the government shutdown led to reduced market conviction. Consequently, investors hesitated to implement significant portfolio adjustments as they await clearer economic data," Dixon explained.

The report indicates that long-term investor allocations to equities saw a marginal decrease of 1 basis point in November, yet remained firmly in positive territory. Cash holdings and fixed income investments experienced slight gains of 0.006 and 0.003, respectively. Overall, the data suggests that institutional investors are exercising caution, opting to maintain their current allocations until more definitive economic data becomes available.

Dixon further elaborated on the investment trends, noting, "Additionally, long-term investors continue to hold a high concentration of equities in US technology stocks. However, some have started to diversify their portfolios by investing in Europe and China. Despite this, allocations to broader emerging markets remain relatively low." This trend underscores a strategic shift among investors, who are gradually seeking opportunities beyond the US market while still maintaining a strong foothold in technology stocks.

The report also highlighted investor sentiment towards fixed income assets. Despite the uncertainties surrounding recent US economic data due to the government shutdown, US treasuries did not witness significant inflows. In the Asia-Pacific region, Australia emerged as a preferred destination for fixed income investments, attracting substantial interest primarily from local investors. Conversely, Singapore experienced the largest outflows in its fixed income market. "Finally, investors continue to avoid fixed income. Despite uncertainty in recent US economic data due to the government shutdown, US treasuries did not see significant inflows. In the Asia-Pacific region, Australia fixed income attracted the most investment, mainly from local investors. By contrast, Singapore fixed income experienced the largest outflows. Overall, equities remain investors' preferred asset class, while cash is a distant second choice," Dixon noted.

The Institutional Investor Indicators, developed by State Street Associates, provide a quantitative measure of investor confidence or risk appetite. By analysing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors, the indicators offer valuable insights into market trends. The Risk Appetite Index, in particular, measures investor flows across twenty-two different dimensions of risk, encompassing equities, FX, fixed income, commodity-linked assets, and asset allocation trends. A positive reading indicates a tendency towards risk-seeking behaviour, while a negative reading suggests risk reduction.

State Street Corporation, a leading global provider of financial services to institutional investors, plays a pivotal role in the investment landscape. With US$51.7 trillion in assets under custody and administration, the corporation operates across more than 100 geographic markets, employing approximately 52,000 individuals worldwide. This extensive reach allows State Street to offer comprehensive investment servicing, management, research, and trading solutions to its clients.

As investors navigate the uncertain economic environment, the insights provided by the State Street Institutional Investor Indicators serve as a valuable resource. The cautious approach adopted by investors reflects a broader sentiment of prudence, as they await clearer economic data to guide their investment decisions. With the US government shutdown casting a shadow of uncertainty, the investment landscape remains dynamic, prompting investors to tread carefully in their pursuit of optimal returns.

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• Yes

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Amidst the backdrop of a US government shutdown and lingering economic uncertainties, investors have adopted a neutral stance, as revealed by the latest State Street Institutional Investor Indicators. Released by State Street Markets, the report highlights a decline in the State Street Risk Appetite Index by 0.09 in November. This downturn reflects a cautious approach by investors who are awaiting clearer economic signals before making significant portfolio adjustments.

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State Street Investment Management, the world's fourth-largest asset manager, has released its much-anticipated 2026 Global Market Outlook (GMO) report titled "Forward with Focus." The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global economic landscape and outlines key investment themes for the upcoming year. As investors navigate a world shaped by evolving policy decisions and the transformative rise of artificial intelligence, State Street's insights offer a roadmap for strategic asset allocation.

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According to the report, the global economy is poised for continued, albeit cautious, growth in 2026. This growth trajectory is being influenced by delayed impacts from major fiscal and monetary measures, as well as the ongoing integration of AI technologies across various sectors. State Street remains optimistic about equities, showing a slight preference for US stocks. In the realm of fixed income, the asset manager favours government bonds over credit across most advanced economies.

Jonathan Shead, Head of Investments for Australia at State Street, provided further insights into the report's findings. He emphasised the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) current focus on managing inflation, despite a softening labour market. "The RBA remains more focused on managing inflation and less on the softening labour market justifying its cautious stance," Shead stated. "While markets have interpreted that as expecting no further cuts, a material deterioration in employment could prompt a policy pivot toward accommodation."

Shead also highlighted the importance of maintaining a global perspective when it comes to investment strategies. "With the global outlook improved and no obvious catalysts for further domestic growth, Australian investors should seek globally diversified portfolios," he advised. "In practice, this means tilting portfolios to have a lower home bias, particularly in equities."

The report suggests that Australian investors should be cautious about domestic equities, given their current valuations and momentum. Instead, Shead recommends diversifying across various asset classes, including Australian fixed income and gold, to mitigate the uncertainties present in global markets. "We are cautious on Australian equities as valuations and momentum remain unattractive," he noted. "Diversifying across asset classes including Australian fixed income – which we think is attractive at this stage, offering income, capital preservation and diversification - and gold will also help investors deal with the still considerable uncertainty in global markets."

State Street's preference for government bonds over credit is rooted in the stability and security they offer in uncertain economic times. This approach aligns with the broader theme of cautious optimism that permeates the report. As the global economy continues to adapt to new fiscal and monetary realities, the emphasis on strategic diversification and risk management becomes increasingly crucial.

The transformative impact of artificial intelligence is another focal point in the report. As AI technologies continue to evolve, they are expected to drive significant changes across industries, influencing both economic growth and investment strategies. State Street's outlook suggests that investors should remain attentive to these developments and consider the potential implications for their portfolios.

Overall, the "Forward with Focus" report underscores the importance of adaptability and strategic foresight in navigating the complexities of the global economy. As investors face a landscape marked by both opportunities and challenges, State Street's insights provide valuable guidance for making informed decisions in 2026 and beyond.

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State Street Investment Management, the world's fourth-largest asset manager, has released its much-anticipated 2026 Global Market Outlook (GMO) report titled "Forward with Focus." The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global economic landscape and outlines key investment themes for the upcoming year. As investors navigate a world shaped by evolving policy decisions and the transformative rise of artificial intelligence, State Street's insights offer a roadmap for strategic asset allocation.

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Amidst a backdrop of fluctuating energy prices, J.P. Morgan Private Bank strategists have identified Australia as a beacon of opportunity for global investors, particularly within its fixed income and currency markets. Despite the challenges posed by a commodity-sensitive economy, the nation's combination of resilient growth, entrenched inflation, and elevated interest rates have positioned it as an attractive prospect for those seeking robust returns.

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John Li, Head of Asia Fixed Income Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, has underscored the appeal of Australia's fixed income market. "Australia’s fixed income market continues to stand out as one of the few places where global investors can still find USD-like yields," Li stated. He further elaborated on the role of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in maintaining these yields, noting, "With the Reserve Bank of Australia holding rates at elevated levels, these yields look set to persist."

The stability of the Australian Dollar (AUD) bond market is another factor drawing investor interest. Despite its smaller size, the AUD bond market is supported by a stable, predominantly buy-and-hold investor base and strong local demand. Li highlighted, "Most AUD bonds are investment grade, yet they provide relatively high yields — with the 5-year benchmark AUD IG yield at 4.60%." He also pointed to the contribution of Australia's large banks and Global Systemically Important Banks issuing in AUD as a significant factor in the market's depth and stability.

The strategic insights from J.P. Morgan come at a time when the global economic landscape is marked by uncertainties. Yuxuan Tang, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, painted a positive picture of the Australian economy in 2025. "Resilience characterizes the Australian economy in 2025," Tang remarked. He highlighted several key indicators of economic health, including a rebound in household spending, positive consumer confidence, and a normalising labour market.

However, inflationary pressures remain a concern, with Tang noting that they are "broad-based and entrenched," which has kept the RBA as a "hawkish outlier amid global easing." This stance by the RBA has had implications for the Australian Dollar, which has been weighed down by weak oil prices. Despite this, Tang maintains a positive outlook on the currency, stating, "While AUDUSD has hovered between 0.64 and 0.67 in recent months, weighed by oil price weakness, we see upside potential with a 6–12 month range of 0.66–0.70."

The strategic insights from J.P. Morgan suggest that for investors concentrated in USD, diversifying into Australian assets could offer both attractive carry and exposure to a resilient economy. Tang emphasised this point, noting the potential benefits of such diversification.

In summary, while global markets grapple with various challenges, J.P. Morgan's strategists have highlighted Australia as a compelling destination for investment. The nation's fixed income and currency markets offer unique opportunities for global investors, supported by a resilient economy and strategic monetary policies. As the world navigates an uncertain economic landscape, Australia's stability and growth potential stand out, making it a key focus for those seeking to diversify their portfolios and capitalise on emerging opportunities.

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Amidst a backdrop of fluctuating energy prices, J.P. Morgan Private Bank strategists have identified Australia as a beacon of opportunity for global investors, particularly within its fixed income and currency markets. Despite the challenges posed by a commodity-sensitive economy, the nation's combination of resilient growth, entrenched inflation, and elevated interest rates have positioned it as an attractive prospect for those seeking robust returns.

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Morgan strategists highlight Australia as a key investment destination amidst global uncertainties" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#9689 (57) { ["id"]=> int(19424) ["title"]=> string(96) "HarbourVest Partners unveils new private equity benchmarks highlighting long-term outperformance" ["alias"]=> string(96) "harbourvest-partners-unveils-new-private-equity-benchmarks-highlighting-long-term-outperformance" ["introtext"]=> string(490) "

In a significant update for the private equity world, HarbourVest Partners, a leading global private markets investment firm, has released its quarterly private equity benchmarks, providing projections through the end of Q3 2025 alongside updated performance returns for Q2 2025. The firm, which manages over $146 billion in assets, has also introduced new benchmarks for Europe and Global ex-US markets, offering fresh insights into regional and global private equity performance.

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The HarbourVest Private Equity Benchmarks (HV PE Benchmarks) are grounded in a detailed analysis of more than 64,000 deals and over $3.7 trillion in private capital investments across 3,000 partnerships spanning 45 years. This extensive dataset allows for a granular examination of private markets, enabling improved accuracy in risk modeling and return attribution analysis.

Sofia Gertsberg, Managing Director and Head of Quantitative Investment Science at HarbourVest, emphasised the long-term outperformance of private equity despite recent public market gains. "Our data shows that while public markets have outperformed private equity on a trailing 12-month basis, private equity continues to outperform over the long term at the global and regional levels," she stated. "We can see that PE-owned businesses are generally outperforming across all five benchmarks for the 5-year and 10-year time frames."

The newly introduced HV Global ex-US Buyout Benchmark includes transaction-level data from Europe (76.7%), Asia (15.1%), North America ex-US (4.4%), and Emerging Markets (3.8%). Meanwhile, the HV Europe Buyout Benchmark primarily features companies headquartered in the United Kingdom (30.4%), Germany (13.9%), and France (10.7%), with other Western European countries, Eastern Europe, and elsewhere making up the remainder.

The Q2 2025 performance highlights reveal that the Communication Services, Financials, and Healthcare sectors were the top global performers, while the Materials, Industrials, and Information Technology sectors lagged, posting modest positive returns. Energy, however, experienced a negative return. In the US, Communication Services, Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials outperformed, whereas Information Technology, Materials, and Consumer sectors underperformed.

Looking at Europe, the Consumer, Information Technology, and Communications Services sectors outperformed the broader Europe Buyout market. However, Industrials, Health Care, Financials, and Materials did not fare as well during this period.

Gertsberg highlighted the firm's commitment to transparency and data quality in its benchmarks. "HarbourVest provides a clear lens into transaction-level returns, helping investors understand the true drivers of performance," she said. "Developed through our more than 3,000 partnerships, the quality and granularity of our transaction-level data allows us to look at investment size, sector or geography, so we can model out near-term projections of PE market performance ahead of the traditional reporting cycle."

The annualised benchmark returns as of June 30, 2025, show that private equity continues to hold its ground against public markets. The HV Global Buyout Benchmark projects a 3.8% return for Q3 2025, with trailing 12-month returns at 9.4%, five-year returns at 14.9%, and ten-year returns at 13.7%. In comparison, the MSCI ACWI Total Return recorded a 7.7% actual return for the trailing 12 months and 16.7% over five years, but only 10.5% over ten years.

Similarly, the HV US Buyout Benchmark projects a 3.5% return for Q3 2025, with trailing returns of 7.1% for 12 months, 14.8% for five years, and 14.1% for ten years. In contrast, the Russell 2000 Total Return posted a 12.4% actual return for the trailing 12 months, with five-year returns at 10.0% and ten-year returns at 7.1%.

The HV Global ex-US Buyout Benchmark and HV Europe Buyout Benchmark also demonstrate strong long-term performance, with trailing five-year returns at 18.4% and 19.1%, respectively.

These benchmarks are intended to offer a directional sense of private equity performance compared to other asset classes, providing valuable insights for investors navigating the complexities of the private equity landscape. However, final Q3 private equity performance numbers will only be available once the underlying firms release their quarterly reports, typically 60-90 days after the quarter's end.

HarbourVest's proprietary benchmarks, developed by its Quantitative Investment Science group, track the performance of private equity and venture-owned companies across various categories, including Global Buyouts, US Buyouts, US Venture Capital, Global ex-US Buyouts, and Europe Buyouts. These benchmarks provide differentiated information based on extensive private investment transaction data and cash flow history, offering more granular insights than traditional private equity benchmarks.

As HarbourVest continues to refine its benchmarks and provide detailed insights into private equity performance, investors can expect enhanced transparency and a deeper understanding of the factors driving returns in this dynamic asset class.

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In a significant update for the private equity world, HarbourVest Partners, a leading global private markets investment firm, has released its quarterly private equity benchmarks, providing projections through the end of Q3 2025 alongside updated performance returns for Q2 2025. The firm, which manages over $146 billion in assets, has also introduced new benchmarks for Europe and Global ex-US markets, offering fresh insights into regional and global private equity performance.

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