Investment insights

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In a landscape marked by evolving market dynamics, institutional investors are demonstrating a cautious yet strategic shift in their investment patterns. The latest State Street Institutional Investor Indicators, released by State Street Markets, reveal a nuanced approach to risk-taking as investors adjust their portfolios in response to global economic signals.

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The State Street Risk Appetite Index, a key measure of investor sentiment, recorded a modest increase of 0.36, reflecting a slight uptick in equity allocations by nearly 1 basis point. This adjustment signifies a strategic move away from fixed income investments, while cash allocations remained steady. Notably, Japan and the United Kingdom emerged as attractive destinations for equity inflows, whereas the United States experienced net selling. Despite this, the U.S. continues to be the preferred overweight in investor portfolios, highlighting its enduring appeal.

Cayla Seder, Senior Macro Strategist at State Street Markets, provided insights into these trends, stating, “There were several notable trends to discern in investor behaviour during December. At a high level, investors increased their allocation to equities, reduced their exposure to fixed income, and kept cash holdings broadly steady—sending an overall risk‑on message.”

Within the equity sector, the U.S. technology sector remains a focal point for investors, underscoring its resilience and growth potential. However, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is also drawing attention, with Japanese equities witnessing positive demand. Seder elaborated, “On the equity front, investor positioning remained concentrated in the U.S., particularly in U.S. technology. Within APAC, however, demand for Japanese equities was positive, while selling pressure on Australian equities moderated.”

Emerging markets are not immune to these shifts, with Chinese and Taiwanese stocks maintaining strong demand, albeit at a slower pace. Meanwhile, Indian and South Korean equities saw neutral flows, suggesting a more cautious approach in these regions. This cautious optimism reflects broader economic uncertainties and the need for strategic diversification.

Currency markets are also witnessing significant movements, with the Australian dollar (AUD) experiencing net inflows, although the demand has softened slightly. Seder noted, “In currencies, the AUD continued to experience net inflows, though demand softened somewhat as flows drifted closer to neutral. Even so, positioning remains overweight heading into the new year, and moving underweight AUD is likely a high bar given expectations that the RBA will raise rates in 2026.”

The Japanese yen (JPY) is also gaining traction, aligning with expectations of policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the coming year. This shift in currency dynamics underscores the influence of anticipated monetary policy changes on investor behaviour.

Sovereign bonds in the APAC region are attracting solid interest, particularly Australian sovereign debt, which has seen the strongest inflows in five years. This trend highlights a renewed confidence in the region's economic stability and growth prospects. Seder explained, “Finally, appetite for APAC sovereigns was solid. Flows into Australian sovereign debt were the strongest in five years, and real‑money investors were net buyers of JGBs as well.”

The dispersion of sovereign bond flows across multiple regions indicates a strategic approach to managing risk and capitalising on regional opportunities. As investors navigate a complex global landscape, these allocation shifts reflect a broader trend towards risk-seeking behaviour amid economic uncertainties.

In conclusion, the latest data from State Street Markets paints a picture of institutional investors carefully recalibrating their portfolios in response to evolving market conditions. The modest increase in risk appetite, coupled with strategic allocations across equities, currencies, and sovereign bonds, signals a nuanced approach to navigating the complexities of the global economy. As economic indicators continue to evolve, investors remain vigilant, seeking opportunities while managing risks in an ever-changing market environment.

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In a landscape marked by evolving market dynamics, institutional investors are demonstrating a cautious yet strategic shift in their investment patterns. The latest State Street Institutional Investor Indicators, released by State Street Markets, reveal a nuanced approach to risk-taking as investors adjust their portfolios in response to global economic signals.

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After a two-year sugar hit for property returns, multiple signals suggest 2026 is a danger year for buying sprees. Australian investors are being urged to slow acquisitions, protect balance sheets, and retool for efficiency instead. This case study deconstructs the pivot using real market cues, scenario modelling, and an AI-enabled operating playbook. The result: better downside protection now, with a cleaner runway to compound returns when the cycle turns.

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Context: A tempting market—until you run the numbers

Australian investors rode resilient prices and tight rental markets through 2023–2025. Yet a growing chorus of advisers now cautions that 2026 is a poor entry point for adding leverage and growing property portfolios. Recent coverage has flagged heightened acquisition risk across the next year, with market uncertainty and policy shifts raising the odds of buying into the wrong part of the cycle.

Three macro cues matter for decision-makers:

• Capital intensity is rising across the economy. The AI buildout has triggered an investment arms race; analysts warn that 2026 could see another leg up in tech capex, compressing returns for late adopters and crowding out risk capital from other asset classes.
• Regulatory scrutiny isn’t easing. The Australian Government’s 2024 interim response on AI governance and the Australian Taxation Office’s published approach to AI oversight both signal tighter controls on data use, model risk, and auditability—expect these risk standards to extend to data-led property operations as digital tools proliferate.
• Policy headwinds for high-balance structures persist. Superannuation tax settings under review for balances above $3 million have investors reassessing timing of realisations and the suitability of property-heavy allocations inside super, with the ATO emphasising its ability to track losses and gains across tax years.

The message for 2026: capital allocation needs to be more surgical. A classic PESTLE scan (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental) shows more variables flashing amber than green.

Decision: Pause on big buys; pivot to balance-sheet resilience and yield engineering

Our case study follows a composite mid-market Australian property investor (commercial and build-to-rent exposure, moderate leverage). In Q4 2025, the investment committee considered two pathways for 2026–2027:

• Acquire aggressively: add 10% to assets under management (AUM) at prevailing 2025 cap rates, funded 50% with new debt.
• Defer acquisitions: preserve liquidity, extend debt duration, and invest in operational uplift—particularly AI-augmented asset management, energy efficiency retrofits, and data governance—preparing to buy when pricing dislocates.

Using a risk-adjusted capital allocation framework (hurdle rate vs. forward cap-rate drift, debt service coverage resilience, and operating alpha potential), the board chose the second path. The catalyst: the asymmetry of downside if cap rates expand 25–75 bps in 2026, versus the more predictable, controllable upside from operational improvements.

Implementation: A three-track plan anchored in cash discipline and digital productivity

Track 1 — Liquidity and risk: extend maturities, cap interest-rate exposure, and lift cash coverage ratios. The aim was to withstand a two-quarter revenue shock without forced asset sales.

Track 2 — Operating system modernisation: deploy AI where the unit economics are clear and governance is mature. Australia’s AI ecosystem is still building commercialisation muscle (June 2025 analysis highlights a gap between research and scaled productisation), so the team prioritised proven, vendor-supported tools with strong audit trails:

• AI-assisted underwriting: scenario generation and sensitivity testing on rent, incentives, and capex, with human sign-off.
• Anomaly detection in rent rolls and expense ledgers to reduce leakage.
• Predictive maintenance using sensor feeds to cut reactive repairs and downtime.
• Natural-language interfaces for portfolio reporting to reduce manual cycles.

To stay onside of emerging rules, the team aligned procurement with Australian AI ethics principles and adopted the ATO-style governance pattern: model inventory, data lineage mapping, human-in-the-loop controls, and auditable decision logs.

Track 3 — Asset-level yield engineering: energy upgrades in common areas; solar PPA reviews; and amenity changes to defend occupancy. These are low-regret moves in any rate environment.

Results: Modelled outcomes under three 2026 scenarios

We modelled outcomes through FY2027 across three scenarios—cap rates +25 bps (soft landing), +50 bps (base), +75 bps (downside)—with debt costs holding higher-for-longer into 2026.

• Acquisition pause vs. aggressive buying: Deferring acquisitions preserved 120–220 bps of return on capital employed (ROCE) by FY2027 versus buying at 2025 pricing, mainly from avoiding immediate mark-to-market write-downs as cap rates expanded.
• Liquidity strength: Extending average debt tenor by 18–24 months lifted interest coverage by 0.3–0.5x during the 2026 peak-rate window.
• Operational alpha: AI-enabled process improvements contributed a modelled 1.0–1.8% uplift to net operating income (NOI) by FY2027 through reduced leakage (0.3–0.6%), maintenance savings (0.4–0.7%), and faster leasing/turnaround (0.3–0.5%). These ranges are consistent with industry reports that current AI returns are real but modest—efficiency-led rather than transformative.
• Capex productivity: Redirecting 30–40% of the 2026 growth budget to retrofits and data projects produced a payback of 2.5–4 years, mainly via energy cost reductions and lower churn.
• Tax timing: For investors using super structures, the decision to avoid crystallising large losses or gains in 2026 reduced policy and audit risk, aligning with the ATO’s explicit capacity to track year-specific outcomes.

Outside reference points reinforce the strategy’s conservatism. The ACCC’s finding that Google retained roughly 94% share of Australian search in 2024 is a reminder that dominant platforms can sustain pricing power longer than many models assume; paying up for growth in platform-adjacent assets (e.g., ad-reliant commercial tenancies) demands extra caution. Meanwhile, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s 2024–25 plan underscores the systemic importance of superannuation—translating to ongoing prudential vigilance through 2026 that investors should factor into liquidity and covenant buffers.

Market context and competitive advantage

Investors who accept a low-growth 2026 and build operating muscle gain option value. When distress emerges—through refinancing cliffs or pricing fatigue—ready buyers with clean balance sheets can move quickly. Conversely, those who bought into 2025 pricing and face 2026 cap-rate drift may be forced to sell non-core assets, missing the next leg up.

Globally, analysts debate whether AI exuberance yields economic upside but stock market downside in 2026; either way, the implication for property is clear: competition for capital intensifies, and underwriting must defend higher real discount rates. The better your operational playbook, the less you need heroic growth assumptions.

Technical deep dive: What ‘good AI’ looks like in property operations

Capabilities that travel well from pilots to production share three traits:

• Traceability: Every AI recommendation is loggable, explainable, and reviewable. This aligns with the government’s emerging governance stance and the ATO’s emphasis on control and auditability.
• Tight loops to value: Use cases that sit close to cash (rent roll integrity, energy management, maintenance scheduling) beat moonshots.
• Data minimalism: Use the least data necessary, with clear retention and deletion policies to reduce privacy and security exposure.

Given Australia’s commercialisation gap, pragmatic buyers will prefer vendors with proven deployments and clear service-level agreements over experimental builds.

Lessons: How to navigate 2026 and be acquisition-ready in 2027

• Business impact: Treat 2026 as an operations year. Lift NOI through controllable levers and protect cash. The numbers suggest a 120–220 bps ROCE advantage versus buying into a softening cap-rate environment.
• Competitive advantage: Build the strike team—legal, debt, ops, and data—now. When mispricing appears, you can transact in days, not months.
• Implementation reality: Start with AI tools that shorten monthly closes, tighten rent rolls, and flag anomalies. Wrap them in a governance framework consistent with Australian ethics principles; assume audit.
• Market trends: Expect higher-for-longer real discount rates while AI capex keeps absorbing global liquidity. Underwrite durability, not exuberance.
• Future outlook: If pricing dislocates in late 2026 or 2027, pivot to acquisitions with a stronger operating engine and longer-dated debt—buy quality cashflows at more honest yields.

Strategy in one line: Pause. Professionalise. Pounce. It’s the play most likely to turn a risky 2026 into the foundation for outperformance through the next cycle.

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After a two-year sugar hit for property returns, multiple signals suggest 2026 is a danger year for buying sprees. Australian investors are being urged to slow acquisitions, protect balance sheets, and retool for efficiency instead. This case study deconstructs the pivot using real market cues, scenario modelling, and an AI-enabled operating playbook. The result: better downside protection now, with a cleaner runway to compound returns when the cycle turns.

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The burgeoning field of humanoid robotics, powered by artificial intelligence (AI), is drawing significant investor interest, but experts warn that the hype might be creating a bubble. A recent report by CB Insights highlights the challenges faced by many humanoid robotics companies, particularly in terms of cost and reliability, which are not expected to be resolved in the near future. This has led investors to advocate for a revenue-first approach, especially within venture capital (VC) circles.

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In a year dominated by AI investments, reports from KPMG and PitchBook reveal that AI continues to lead the charge, accounting for over half of all investments. Within the AI sector, there is a noticeable shift towards industrial humanoid robotics, with CB Insights data showing that this category captured 17 deals last quarter, the highest among its peers. Despite AI's overarching appeal, which includes areas like coding AI agents and end-to-end software development, the focus on humanoid robotics has raised concerns about speculative investments.

The rapid expansion of the humanoid robotics sector has not gone unnoticed. Bloomberg reports that China's leading economic planning industry has cautioned about the potential for a bubble, advising the industry to "balance the speed against the risks of bubbles."

The allure of humanoid robots is largely attributed to AI, which provides these machines with commercial potential previously unattainable. However, Daiva Rakauskaitė, partner and manager of Aneli Capital, which manages a €35 million fund for early-stage startups in Central and Eastern Europe, draws parallels between the current AI-driven investment surge and the dotcom bubble of the early 2000s. She predicts a potential burst of the AI bubble in the next two to three years.

"Many AI startups that can’t yet generate revenue will fail, but we’re reaching a consensus on that in the market. While the same risks persist in humanoid robotics, many investors tend to overlook this," Rakauskaitė notes. "However, it is important to distinguish robotics from humanoid robotics; industrial and logistics robots already generate revenue and can deliver measurable results, while humanoids can’t yet prove their commercial value."

Despite the excitement surrounding humanoid robots, which are often showcased performing tasks from running to boxing, their practical commercial applications remain limited. The real-world challenges for industrial humanoid robotics include issues with inference, dexterity, reliability, and cost. These limitations confine their initial use to environments like factories and warehouses, where tasks are predictable, as outlined in the CB Insights report.

Rakauskaitė emphasises the need for VCs to focus on fundamentals, advocating for a revenue-first philosophy. "Investments in robotics and AI are crucial for the future development of humanity. But investors should remain disciplined and back companies that have realistic goals based on economics, not hype," she advises. "From day one, startups should aim for early revenue streams through licensing, partnerships, and have a clear model of monetisation in the near future. The same revenue-first philosophy can be applied to any field."

Despite the early signs of a bubble in humanoid robotics, Rakauskaitė remains optimistic about the broader robotics sector. The combination of cheaper hardware and rapid AI advancements is accelerating the deployment of robotics in real-world scenarios. She highlights the strategic advantage for Central and Eastern European (CEE) startups, given their proximity to Germany, Europe's largest industrial robotics market.

"The region also has lots of hidden talent. That’s why we dedicated our new fund for this region, aiming to support the talented founders with hands-on guidance and quick decision-making," Rakauskaitė explains. "Many hype-driven investors pull back once the hype fades. Yet to create real innovators, VCs must support them through their full journey. That’s exactly what we are going to do."

As the humanoid robotics sector continues to evolve, the call for a balanced approach between innovation and financial prudence becomes increasingly critical. Investors and startups alike are urged to focus on tangible revenue models to ensure sustainable growth in this promising yet precarious field.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-12-15 22:30:20" ["slug"]=> string(70) "19791:investors-warn-ai-hype-is-fuelling-a-bubble-in-humanoid-robotics" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#10276 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

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The burgeoning field of humanoid robotics, powered by artificial intelligence (AI), is drawing significant investor interest, but experts warn that the hype might be creating a bubble. A recent report by CB Insights highlights the challenges faced by many humanoid robotics companies, particularly in terms of cost and reliability, which are not expected to be resolved in the near future. This has led investors to advocate for a revenue-first approach, especially within venture capital (VC) circles.

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Australia has solidified its position as a significant player in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) private equity market, according to a new analysis by global private markets firm HarbourVest Partners. The country accounted for approximately 10% of all private-equity backed exits in the region this year, contributing over US$5.5 billion in realisations, as detailed in HarbourVest’s 2026 Market Outlook.

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This achievement comes amid broader liquidity challenges in the APAC region, where exit pathways have remained open in Australia, providing general partners (GPs) and limited partners (LPs) with meaningful deal flow. This has positioned Australia as a critical contributor to the APAC market, despite the hurdles confronting the broader region.

The outlook for Australian fundraising is equally promising. The 2026 Market Outlook forecasts a robust fundraising environment driven by an upswing in middle-market fundraising. Australia, alongside Japan, is expected to be one of the more active fundraising markets in APAC next year. The country's mature, GP-friendly ecosystem, supported by dependable regulatory settings and high-quality opportunities, has been pivotal in maintaining this momentum.

Hemal Mirani, Head of APAC and Managing Director at HarbourVest, emphasised Australia’s integral role in the regional market. “Our analysis highlights a continuing theme in the APAC private equity market: that Australia, with its deep pool of mature middle-market firms, remains a key driver of regional investment, exits, and fundraising activity,” she said.

Mirani further elaborated on the findings, stating, “The findings in our 2026 Market Outlook reflect the significant presence of Australia’s PE market on the regional and world stage. With increasing interest in alternative assets from a widening pool of investors in the ANZ region, the PE market is well poised for further growth in the years to come. We expect Australian PE firms to be a key contributor to regional activity in 2026, as global liquidity, transaction and fundraising activity regain pace.”

The broader APAC market is also witnessing positive momentum. HarbourVest’s 2026 outlook highlights an increase in both dealmaking and private equity exits, with year-to-date exits across the region through September reaching US$54 billion. This marks a 28% increase year-over-year and represents 90% of full-year 2024 levels. Investment activity has stabilised since 2023, with Q3 2025 year-to-date activity registering US$75 billion—a 26% year-over-year gain despite ongoing global macroeconomic volatility.

While public market valuations have climbed in recent years, surpassing HarbourVest’s Global Buyout Benchmark on a 12-month trailing return basis, the long-term performance benefits of private markets remain evident. The Market Outlook reveals that the 5- and 10-year trailing returns of private equity buyouts have outperformed the MSCI ACWI Investable Market Index (MSCI ACWI). Notably, the 10-year trailing return of private equity buyouts has exceeded public markets by more than 3% on an annualised basis.

In response to the rising demand from a diverse set of investors, private markets firms are innovating with new products. Semi-liquid evergreen funds are gaining traction globally, offering greater liquidity and open-ended access to private equity. These funds appeal to individual and smaller institutional investors due to their investor-friendly structures, providing immediate private equity exposure with compounding returns. By mitigating the traditional J-curve, they also offer administrative and structural tax reporting advantages.

Evergreen private-markets vehicles reached US$427 billion in assets under management (AUM) by the end of 2024. Conservative forecasts predict 20% annual growth, with evergreen funds expected to surpass US$1 trillion in AUM by 2029.

As the APAC private equity landscape evolves, Australia’s role appears more crucial than ever. The country’s ability to navigate liquidity challenges and maintain robust fundraising and exit activities underscores its importance in the region. With promising forecasts and innovative financial products on the rise, Australia is poised to remain a key player in the APAC private equity market for the foreseeable future.

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Australia has solidified its position as a significant player in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) private equity market, according to a new analysis by global private markets firm HarbourVest Partners. The country accounted for approximately 10% of all private-equity backed exits in the region this year, contributing over US$5.5 billion in realisations, as detailed in HarbourVest’s 2026 Market Outlook.

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In a year marked by economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, global deal activity has experienced a notable decline, according to recent findings by GlobalData, a prominent data and analytics company. The report, which analysed data from January to November 2025, reveals a 6% decrease in the total number of deals announced worldwide compared to the same period in 2024. This downturn encompasses mergers and acquisitions (M&A), private equity, and venture financing deals, highlighting the widespread impact of challenging market conditions.

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The analysis of GlobalData’s Deals Database underscores a broad-based decline across all deal types and regions. Aurojyoti Bose, Lead Analyst at GlobalData, provided insights into the factors contributing to this trend. "The contraction in deal activity points to heightened caution in investment decisions amid prevailing geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic challenges, and evolving market dynamics," Bose explained. Despite these challenges, some markets have managed to demonstrate resilience and selective growth, offering a glimmer of hope in an otherwise cautious investment landscape.

The report breaks down the decline in deal activity by type, revealing that the number of M&A deal announcements fell by 6% during the January-November 2025 period compared to the same timeframe in 2024. Venture financing deals experienced a 5% year-on-year decrease, while private equity deals saw the most significant drop, with a 16% decline. These figures illustrate the pervasive nature of the downturn, affecting various facets of the investment landscape.

Regionally, the slowdown in deal activity was evident across the board. North America, which led in deal volume, experienced a relatively mild 3% year-on-year decline. This was largely due to the resilience of the United States, where deal activity fell by just 2%. In contrast, Europe faced the steepest regional contraction, with an 11% decrease, reflecting both cyclical headwinds and ongoing geopolitical complexities.

Asia-Pacific recorded a 5% decline in deal activity, while the Middle East and Africa, along with South and Central America, each saw deal volumes contract by 10%. The varied performance across regions highlights the diverse challenges and opportunities faced by different markets in the current economic climate.

At the country level, the data paints a more nuanced picture of the global investment landscape. India emerged as a standout performer, posting a 4% year-on-year increase in deal activity. In contrast, China recorded a flat performance, indicating stability amid broader regional challenges. Several other markets also outperformed the broader trend, showcasing their structural strengths and resilience.

For instance, Israel, Hong Kong, and Saudi Arabia witnessed growth in the number of deals announced, with increases of 11%, 15%, and 7% respectively during the January-November 2025 period compared to the previous year. These markets have managed to buck the overall trend, highlighting their attractiveness to investors even in uncertain times.

Conversely, several major markets experienced significant declines in deal activity. The United Kingdom saw a 14% drop, while Canada and Germany recorded decreases of 9% and 10% respectively. Australia, France, South Korea, and Brazil also faced declines, with respective decreases of 10%, 6%, 27%, and 8%. These figures underscore the varied impact of global challenges on different economies and their investment landscapes.

Bose emphasised the cautious sentiment prevailing in the market, stating, "While certain markets may still present opportunities, the overall sentiment remains one of caution." The data suggests that investors are navigating a complex and evolving landscape, where geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic challenges, and market dynamics continue to shape investment decisions.

As the global economy grapples with these challenges, the investment community remains vigilant, seeking opportunities in resilient markets while exercising caution in an uncertain environment. The findings from GlobalData provide valuable insights into the current state of global deal activity, shedding light on the factors influencing investment decisions and the regions and markets that are defying the broader trend.

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In a year marked by economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, global deal activity has experienced a notable decline, according to recent findings by GlobalData, a prominent data and analytics company. The report, which analysed data from January to November 2025, reveals a 6% decrease in the total number of deals announced worldwide compared to the same period in 2024. This downturn encompasses mergers and acquisitions (M&A), private equity, and venture financing deals, highlighting the widespread impact of challenging market conditions.

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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(122) "/invest-money/investment-insights/global-deal-activity-declines-by-6-amid-challenging-market-conditions-reports-globaldata" ["image"]=> string(112) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1765941327/pexels-cytonn-955395_b9zwfm.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(90) "Global deal activity declines by 6% amid challenging market conditions, reports GlobalData" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#9777 (57) { ["id"]=> int(19544) ["title"]=> string(67) "Furious five trends set to reshape the investment landscape in 2026" ["alias"]=> string(67) "furious-five-trends-set-to-reshape-the-investment-landscape-in-2026" ["introtext"]=> string(483) "

The investment landscape of 2026 is poised for transformation as five key trends, dubbed the "Furious Five" by CMC Markets, are set to dominate and disrupt markets. These trends encompass artificial intelligence (AI), energy, robotics, defence, and a rising interest in store-of-value assets such as gold and Bitcoin. CMC's latest annual market outlook highlights these secular trends, emphasising their potential to redefine risk, opportunity, and overall market direction.

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Kurt Mayell, Head of Markets at CMC, explained the significance of these trends: "While there is no crystal ball, we have identified five key themes that defined 2025 and will continue to impact markets, for better or worse, in 2026. These macro and sector thematics are poised to shape risk, opportunity and overall market direction and as such have meaningful implications for investors."

AI breakthroughs and bubbles

The AI sector has been a driving force behind market highs in 2025, with big tech companies spending nearly USD$400 billion on AI-related investments. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with industry leaders planning to allocate up to 35% of their annual revenue toward AI initiatives. The increasing demand for compute supply, driven by the rise of agentic AI, is anticipated to exacerbate capacity constraints, requiring significantly more resources than simpler generative AI tasks.

As speculation grows around potential initial public offerings (IPOs) of major private AI firms, including OpenAI, investors are closely monitoring the sector. Mr Mayell noted, "AI embodies both promise and risk. History has shown that asset bubbles don’t burst on schedule. They expand, defy caution, and pop without forewarning. AI bulls would argue that this isn’t 1999 - unlike the dot-com era, today’s AI boom is led by profitable, cash-rich big tech firms that don’t rely solely on AI to drive earnings."

Investors are urged to explore the entire AI ecosystem, including chipmakers, fabricators, infrastructure providers, semiconductor suppliers, and cloud platforms, to identify the right opportunities.

Energy to power the AI revolution

The energy sector is undergoing a dramatic transformation, driven by the AI revolution. Power-hungry AI data centres are reshaping electricity prices, straining ageing grids, and influencing clean energy markets. This shift has also revitalised interest in the nuclear energy sector. Multi-trillion-dollar investment plans announced by leading tech companies are expected to drive massive infrastructure spending, particularly in energy.

"Amid this disruption could emerge both challenges and opportunities across the energy landscape," Mr Mayell said. "The key will be identifying which segments of the market may be best positioned to adapt to this generational realignment. AI has disrupted the energy landscape, pulling investors back into a sector once seen as mature and slow-moving. The energy narrative of 2026 is unlike anything before."

Robotics to scale in 2026

Automation and robotics are set to reshape various industries, including transportation, manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, and corporate workforces. The humanoid robot market is projected to reach $5 trillion by 2050, with over 1 billion robots deployed across factories, logistics hubs, and households.

"Automation and robotics are moving from early adoption to real-world scale in 2026," Mr Mayell stated. "From autonomous vehicles to industrial and surgical robotics, the landscape is shifting from proving the technology to demonstrating profitability and resilience."

Despite the potential for growth, the robotics sector faces uncertainties, including regulatory challenges, training-data limitations, and political scrutiny over job displacement.

New opportunities in defence

The defence sector is undergoing significant changes, with 2026 shaping up to be a defining year for the US's legacy defence contractors. Over the past four years, major contractors like Lockheed Martin, RTX, Boeing, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman have accounted for a substantial portion of the Pentagon's discretionary spending. Critics argue that this concentration has led to complacency and slowed innovation.

In response, the US Department of Defence is implementing sweeping procurement reforms, aiming to collaborate with technology firms from Silicon Valley. "The defence sector is undergoing one of the most consequential industry shifts in decades," Mr Mayell said. "Palantir is a key beneficiary of this, becoming the most valuable defence stock in the world due to its multi-billion dollar US government contracts."

As world military expenditure reaches record highs, investors are advised to remain nimble, as changes in US defence spending could reshape the sector.

Investors rotate into stores of value

In 2025, gold and Bitcoin achieved all-time highs, reviving interest in the "debasement trade." This trend refers to the decline in purchasing power of the US dollar due to inflation and poor fiscal and monetary policies. With persistent inflation and ballooning government debt, the US dollar index fell over 8% against a basket of global currencies. Meanwhile, gold surged to over $4,370 per ounce, and Bitcoin reached a new high above $126,000 before pulling back.

"While the dollar remains dominant, the steady rotation into alternative stores of value points to a world preparing for policy volatility rather than stability," Mr Mayell commented. "As we head into 2026, the key question for investors is whether the debasement argument is strong enough to warrant repositioning portfolios, either for the near term or with a longer horizon in mind."

These five megatrends – AI, energy, robotics, defence, and stores of value – are expected to be structural drivers shaping the global economy in 2026, presenting both opportunities and challenges for investors.

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The investment landscape of 2026 is poised for transformation as five key trends, dubbed the "Furious Five" by CMC Markets, are set to dominate and disrupt markets. These trends encompass artificial intelligence (AI), energy, robotics, defence, and a rising interest in store-of-value assets such as gold and Bitcoin. CMC's latest annual market outlook highlights these secular trends, emphasising their potential to redefine risk, opportunity, and overall market direction.

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