Australian retail turnover rose by 0.9 per cent in November 2019, seasonally adjusted, which was double the expected 0.4 per cent boost in consumer spending.
“We have seen strong growth in Black Friday sales, both in areas such as electrical goods and online sales, but also in areas such as clothing and furniture,” said Ben James, director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys.
“While seasonal adjustment removes regular seasonal patterns associated with Black Friday based on prior results, the strong seasonally adjusted rises in a number of sub-groups this month show that the impact of this Black Friday exceeded that of previous years,” Mr James continued.
However, a UBS economist believes December numbers will be vital as Christmas spending in December might have been brought forward to November to take advantage of the sales.
“Indeed the December retail PSI collapsed after spiking higher in November, suggesting a retracement in retail sales in December is likely. While the rise in November retail sales is clearly a positive sign for consumption, it is too early to make a clear assessment for Q4 ahead of likely payback in December.
There were rises for clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (3.1 per cent), food retailing (0.5 per cent), household goods retailing (1.2 per cent), department stores (3.4 per cent) and cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.9 per cent). These rises were partially offset by a fall in other retailing (-0.5 per cent).
In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in Victoria (1.1 per cent), Queensland (1.2 per cent), NSW (0.7 per cent), South Australia (1.4 per cent), Western Australia (0.5 per cent), the ACT (0.7 per cent) and Tasmania (0.4 per cent). The Northern Territory (-0.2 per cent) fell in seasonally adjusted terms in November 2019.
The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in November 2019, following a 0.3 per cent rise in October 2019. Compared with November 2018, the trend estimate rose 2.9 per cent.
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