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In this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja Garaca Djurdjevic checks in with our three experts to talk through the biggest stories regarding property, financial wellness and investing.

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Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, chats about the end of lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne and the impact on property. Steve admits to being pleasantly surprised by Victoria’s recent record-breaking house price growth and gives his thoughts on possible tax changes ahead of the federal election.

Meanwhile, RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, chats about the soaring NFT market and what measures might be required in the future to create a robust and efficient system for NFTs.

Lastly, our regular tax and super expert, Timothy Munro, discusses the meaning and importance of financial wellness and why young people in particular may need to alter their financial behaviours.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured on the next episode.

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Less profit, more capital: Why shareholders will continue to suffer

By Grace Ormsby

April 27 2020
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Invest

Less profit, more capital: Why shareholders will continue to suffer

By Grace Ormsby
April 27 2020

As macroeconomic data worsens, survival – not profit – is the new priority for a large proportion of public companies. So, what does that mean for those businesses’ shareholders?

Less profit, more capital: Why shareholders will continue to suffer

By Grace Ormsby

April 27 2020
Share

As macroeconomic data worsens, survival – not profit – is the new priority for a large proportion of public companies. So, what does that mean for those businesses’ shareholders?

In MFS Investment Management’s latest Strategist’s Corner, portfolio manager and global investment strategist Robert Almeida and portfolio manager and chief economist Erik Weisman have conceded that while macroeconomic data is set to worsen, there’s plenty more known unknowns and complete unknowns that are set to have an impact on economic recovery.

“Investors are unlikely to be surprised by horrendous macroeconomic data,” they conceded.

“For instance, based on initial jobless claims data, more jobs have been lost in the past four weeks than were created during the entirety of the now-ended 11-year business cycle. So, yes, economic data will get worse, but they may not matter to capital markets because this is a market known.”

Considering that markets are a discounting mechanism of “known knowns” and the weighted probabilities of many “known unknowns”, Mr Almeida and Mr Weisman said an upcoming earnings recession “won’t surprise markets anymore than terrible labour data will”.

But of more concern to the investment analysts is the known unknown that has seen CEOs and CFOs scramble to secure liquidity: “Profit maximisation is no longer the priority. Survival is. Recapitalisations will likely become necessary,” they flagged – which will result in a dilution of power and potential earnings held by existing shareholders.

The insight coincides with NAB's announcement that it would be halting trading to embark on a $3.5 billion capital raise.

“A fresh wave of recapitalisations is likely just getting started,” they predicted, as share prices across the globe continue to show volatility and lower valuations.

It’s not a new phenomenon – the investment experts noted that it’s been seen in the not-too-distant past, back in 2008.

“As the fat tail risk of the global financial crisis faded, emphasis turned from maintaining liquidity towards recapitalisation. That recapitalisation came via the equity market and at the expense of shareholders who suffered substantial dilution on a per-share basis,” they said.

Despite this, Mr Almeida and Mr Weisman conceded that the nature of this recession is still different from that of 2008 – and not only because the recession is driven by a pandemic.

“The 2008 meltdown was driven by an overleveraged financial sector. However, this time around, banks and real estate investment trusts (REITs) weren’t the entities that extended balance sheet leverage to unsustainable levels in order to repurchase stock. Instead, it was every corporate sector but financials,” they explained.

Forecasting the outcome of this downturn, the strategist and the economist flagged how “none of us can guess what the duration of this recession will be, nor can we tell how strong the recovery will be”, despite many people seeming to believe “they have sufficient visibility into any such recovery’s many known unknowns to make the high-conviction call that the recovery will be strong”.

“We wish we had such conviction, but we don’t, and we don’t think you should either.”

They’ve recognised “that you can’t plan perfectly for black swan events such as the one we’re experiencing”.