Retirement
Will Australia be prosperous in 2060?
The CSIRO has mapped the future of Australia — making it clear that, without certain reforms, economic growth and prosperity will take a hit
Will Australia be prosperous in 2060?
The CSIRO has mapped the future of Australia — making it clear that, without certain reforms, economic growth and prosperity will take a hit
The road ahead
Australia has enjoyed nearly three decades of uninterrupted economic growth, with its cities constantly ranking in the most liveable cities in the world.
Australia has six key challenges it needs to address between now and 2060 to remain a prosperous nation.
- Rise of Asia: By 2030, Asia will be home of 65 per cent of the middle class. If Australia can’t boost its competitiveness and diversify exports, it risks missing out on this opportunity.
- Technological changes: With the rise of AI, automation and advances in biotechnology are transforming industries and the skills required. Unless Australia can reverse its declines in educational performance, its future workforce is poorly prepared for the challenges tomorrow brings.
- Climate change and environment: With the world already warming by 1 degree, the planet could be on the path to warming by 4 degrees if significant action to reduce climate change isn’t taken.
- Demographics: Australia is growing and ageing. At the current rate, Sydney and Melbourne will each reach 8–9 million by 2060 and the workforce participation will fall from 66 per cent to 60 per cent.
- Trust: Nationally, Australians are less trustworthy of the government, business and the media. Unless as a nation it can build a consensus on the long-term solution, it will not be able to address other challenges.
- Social cohesion: Many Australians feel left behind. Issues related to trust, as well as factors such as financial stress, slow wage growth and poor housing affordability, may play a role.
The slow decline
Without appropriately addressing the above factors, the nation risks entering a “slow decline”, as the CSIRO calls it.
If the nation’s future is in a slow decline, Australia’s economic growth, investment and education outcomes are all relatively weak. With this our economy becomes vulnerable to external shocks, total factor productivity (TFP) remains lower than the rest of the world and wage growth remains flat.
In this environment, Australian cities sprawl outwards making it harder for people to access education and services. This will lead to a deepening social division and polarisation.
In this scenario, Australia fails to transition to low-emission energy, and with this, both energy and agricultural productivity remain low.
Key projections for a “slow decline” situation:
- GDP grows at 2.1 per cent annually
- Real wages are 40 per cent higher in 2060
- Urban vehicle kilometres travelled per capita falls by less than 25 per cent
- 11 per cent reduction in emissions
- Household spend 38 per cent on electricity as a percentage of income
- Returns to landholders increase by around $18 billion
The Outlook Vision
The Outlook Vision, as outlined by the CSIRO, is one where the nation reaches its full potential. Economically it remains strong, technology companies move towards global frontier and it creates new export-facing industries. Improved education gives Australians the skills they need to compete in this new world.
Australia’s cities are dynamic and diverse global centres, with higher density populations with an increase in affordable housing options with equal access to services.
Australia successfully transitions its limit climate change to 2 degrees and can reach a “net zero” emissions by 2050 driven by the use of the land in carbon planting.
Key projections for “Outlook Vision”:
- GDP grows at 2.75 to 2.8 per cent annually
- Real wages are 90 per cent higher in 2060
- Average density of major cities increase by 60–88 per cent
- Australia reaches net zero emissions through 11 -20Mha of environmentally planting by 2060 (12–24 per cent of intensive agricultural land)
- Households spend 64 per cent less on electricity
- Return to landholders increases by $42–$84 billion
Ensuring Australia ends up in Outlook Vision
Achieving positive outcomes in five main areas will ensure Australia ends up in the Outlook Vision by 2060.
- Industry: An industry shift will enable a productive, inclusive and resilient economy.
- Urban: A shift that allows for well-connected affordable city offering equal jobs, lifestyle and education services.
- Energy: A shift in energy allowing for low-emission energy that builds on Australia’s existing sources of comparative advantage.
- Land: A land shift will create a profitable and sustainable future that includes food, fibre and fuel production as well as carbon sequestration and biodiversity.
- Culture: A shift in culture that encourages more engagement, curiosity, collaboration and solutions.
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
About the author
About the author
Retirement Planning
How to adjust your wealth strategy during COVID
Investors are being urged to be conservative about spending, reduce debt and be careful of assets that are supported by government spending, as they look to adjust their wealth strategies during the f...Read more
Retirement Planning
Should older Australians downsize their property?
Older Australians face the dilemma of not being confident about their retirement outcomes, but are among the wealthiest retirees in the world due to a large proportion of their wealth being tied up i...Read more
Retirement Planning
Self-funded retirees ‘hung out to dry’ by 2020 budget
The Association of Independent Retirees has slammed last night’s federal budget release, accusing the government of overlooking older Australians in its post-COVID-19 recovery plans. ...Read more
Retirement Planning
Work backwards and buffer: How to set (and stick to) financial goals
Working backwards is one of the most effective ways for individuals to set financial goals that actually work, according to a finance director. ...Read more
Retirement Planning
What are self-funded retirees most worried about in 2020?
The national economy, the value of investments and the ability to manage long-term finances are top of mind of self-funded retirees reeling from the effects of a worldwide economic slump. ...Read more
Retirement Planning
Boost your super in the comfort of your own home
There’s a new way for retirees to top up their super through the downsizer contribution without having to move out of their home – and it’s got the approval of the ATO. ...Read more
Retirement Planning
How you’ll retire depends on personal values as much as dollars
Ever wondered why some people accumulate more wealth than others, even when their incomes are on par? It probably stems from their personal values, writes Helen Baker. ...Read more
Retirement Planning
Intergenerational wealth gap grows to 2-decade high
Falling rates of home ownership, government spending skewed to older Australians and deteriorating environmental factors are causing intergenerational wealth to grow, new research has shown. ...Read more
Retirement Planning
How to adjust your wealth strategy during COVID
Investors are being urged to be conservative about spending, reduce debt and be careful of assets that are supported by government spending, as they look to adjust their wealth strategies during the f...Read more
Retirement Planning
Should older Australians downsize their property?
Older Australians face the dilemma of not being confident about their retirement outcomes, but are among the wealthiest retirees in the world due to a large proportion of their wealth being tied up i...Read more
Retirement Planning
Self-funded retirees ‘hung out to dry’ by 2020 budget
The Association of Independent Retirees has slammed last night’s federal budget release, accusing the government of overlooking older Australians in its post-COVID-19 recovery plans. ...Read more
Retirement Planning
Work backwards and buffer: How to set (and stick to) financial goals
Working backwards is one of the most effective ways for individuals to set financial goals that actually work, according to a finance director. ...Read more
Retirement Planning
What are self-funded retirees most worried about in 2020?
The national economy, the value of investments and the ability to manage long-term finances are top of mind of self-funded retirees reeling from the effects of a worldwide economic slump. ...Read more
Retirement Planning
Boost your super in the comfort of your own home
There’s a new way for retirees to top up their super through the downsizer contribution without having to move out of their home – and it’s got the approval of the ATO. ...Read more
Retirement Planning
How you’ll retire depends on personal values as much as dollars
Ever wondered why some people accumulate more wealth than others, even when their incomes are on par? It probably stems from their personal values, writes Helen Baker. ...Read more
Retirement Planning
Intergenerational wealth gap grows to 2-decade high
Falling rates of home ownership, government spending skewed to older Australians and deteriorating environmental factors are causing intergenerational wealth to grow, new research has shown. ...Read more
More articles
Website Notifications
Get notifications in real-time for staying up to date with content that matters to you.
