Invest
RBA says record-low rate to remain until at least 2024
The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled that interest rates will be held at a record-low 0.1 per cent until at least 2024, with employment tipped to take several years to recover.
RBA says record-low rate to remain until at least 2024
The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled that interest rates will be held at a record-low 0.1 per cent until at least 2024, with employment tipped to take several years to recover.
The Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed that it will keep the cash rate at 0.1 per cent at its first rate meeting of the year, as was predicted by experts. But in a move hailed as unexpected, the RBA also committed to an additional $100 billion of quantitative easing ahead of schedule.
“At its meeting today, the board decided to maintain the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the three-year Australian government bond, as well as the parameters of the term funding facility,” the RBA said.
“It also decided to purchase an additional $100 billion of bonds issued by the Australian government and states and territories when the current bond purchase program is completed in mid April. These additional purchases will be at the current rate of $5 billion a week.”
While praising Australia’s economic recovery to date, the RBA said the “economy is expected to operate with considerable spare capacity for some time to come”.
“The unemployment rate remains higher than it has been for the past two decades, and while it is expected to decline, the central scenario is for unemployment to be around 6 per cent at the end of this year and 5½ per cent at the end of 2022.”
As such, the board confirmed that it will not be increasing the cash rate until 2024 at the earliest.
“The board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market.
“The board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.”
Property prices to soar
According to analysts, the record-low interest rate will send property prices soaring.
Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, expects that this decision will leave mortgage rates at record lows, which, along with government home buyer incentives and economic recovery, will continue to push average property prices higher.
“Headline inflation will rise due to base effects as the collapse in petrol prices and childcare costs drops out of annual comparisons, but underlying inflation will remain low at around 1.5 per cent or less out to next year.
“This in turn will see the RBA leave rates at 0.1 per cent probably out to end 2022 at least,” Mr Oliver said.
In a document released by the RBA last month, following a Freedom of Information request, the bank predicted that a permanent 1 percentage point (100 basis point reduction) cut in the official rate could increase real housing prices by 30 per cent over three years.
With the RBA clearly alert to the risks from low interest rates, property experts believe the bank’s predictions are fairly accurate.
“With what we can see today based on recent shifts in inventory levels, we would be comfortable in saying the RBA forecast will apply in 75 per cent of regions,” self-proclaimed data nerds Arjun Paliwal and Kent Lardner told Smart Property Investment.
According to their analysis of inventory level trends over the last two years, a substantial decline in stock levels is evident, creating high price pressure.
“There has been a dramatic decline in stock levels relevant to sales volumes (inventory levels). This change is creating many high pressures,” InvestorKit’s head of research, Mr Paliwal, and Suburbtrends’ Mr Lardner said.
“Most regions across Australia are seeing a decline in days on market. This is likely to flow onto prices and a reduction in vendor discounting across house markets,” they noted.
RELATED ARTICLES
About the author
About the author
Economy
GDP data prompts economist to predict faster RBA rate cuts
Australia's latest GDP growth data has come in significantly below expectations, prompting an economist to suggest the Reserve Bank may need to ease monetary policy more aggressively. Read more
Economy
Global markets face turbulent start amid tariff concerns, but outlook remains cautious
Global equity and bond markets have experienced a turbulent start to 2025, primarily due to concerns that a potential tariff-driven trade war could heighten inflation and recession risks. Read more
Economy
RBA may cut rates faster if GDP data disappoints, economists say
The Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates more quickly if next week's GDP data disappoints, economists said following today's consumer price index data for May. Read more
Economy
RBA delivers widely expected rate cut as inflation optimism balances global uncertainty
The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the cash rate by 25 basis points, delivering on widespread market expectations while signalling a clearer directional shift towards less restrictive monetary ...Read more
Economy
Economist warns strong jobs data may delay further RBA rate cuts
Strong employment growth in April has put expectations for multiple interest rate cuts at risk, though upcoming economic data may clarify the need for lower rates, according to State Street Global ...Read more
Economy
Australian inflation continues downward trend, nearing RBA target
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7 per cent in the year to August, down from 3.5 per cent in July and 3.8 per cent in June. Read more
Economy
UK markets poised for gains after election, global geopolitical risks remain
Chris Iggo, Chief Investment Officer at AXA Investment Managers, has provided an optimistic outlook for UK markets following the recent general election, while cautioning about ongoing global ...Read more
Economy
Co-ops and mutuals boost revenue to $43.2 billion despite economic challenges
Australia's top 100 co-operative and mutual businesses have posted a record performance in the 2023 financial year, growing total revenue by 16.1 percent to $43.2 billion. Read more
Economy
GDP data prompts economist to predict faster RBA rate cuts
Australia's latest GDP growth data has come in significantly below expectations, prompting an economist to suggest the Reserve Bank may need to ease monetary policy more aggressively. Read more
Economy
Global markets face turbulent start amid tariff concerns, but outlook remains cautious
Global equity and bond markets have experienced a turbulent start to 2025, primarily due to concerns that a potential tariff-driven trade war could heighten inflation and recession risks. Read more
Economy
RBA may cut rates faster if GDP data disappoints, economists say
The Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates more quickly if next week's GDP data disappoints, economists said following today's consumer price index data for May. Read more
Economy
RBA delivers widely expected rate cut as inflation optimism balances global uncertainty
The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the cash rate by 25 basis points, delivering on widespread market expectations while signalling a clearer directional shift towards less restrictive monetary ...Read more
Economy
Economist warns strong jobs data may delay further RBA rate cuts
Strong employment growth in April has put expectations for multiple interest rate cuts at risk, though upcoming economic data may clarify the need for lower rates, according to State Street Global ...Read more
Economy
Australian inflation continues downward trend, nearing RBA target
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7 per cent in the year to August, down from 3.5 per cent in July and 3.8 per cent in June. Read more
Economy
UK markets poised for gains after election, global geopolitical risks remain
Chris Iggo, Chief Investment Officer at AXA Investment Managers, has provided an optimistic outlook for UK markets following the recent general election, while cautioning about ongoing global ...Read more
Economy
Co-ops and mutuals boost revenue to $43.2 billion despite economic challenges
Australia's top 100 co-operative and mutual businesses have posted a record performance in the 2023 financial year, growing total revenue by 16.1 percent to $43.2 billion. Read more
