Invest
Fresh property predictions rebuke ‘boom to doom’ claims
Research house CoreLogic has hit out at claims that Australian housing values are set to fall off a cliff, producing data and predictions to the contrary.
Fresh property predictions rebuke ‘boom to doom’ claims
Research house CoreLogic has hit out at claims that Australian housing values are set to fall off a cliff, producing data and predictions to the contrary.
Recently, boss of property consultancy DFA Analytics predicted a 40-45 per cent drop in Australian dwelling values.
Relative to 12 months ago, dwelling values have fallen across the board – down about 2 per cent since peaking in September last year.
However, CoreLogic’s research director Tim Lawless said there would need to be a “material about face” in labour market conditions or a significant interest rate rise for property values to plummet.
“If we look at the current downturn in Australian housing, the trajectory is actually quite unremarkable,” Mr Lawless said.
“Australia’s largest housing market, Sydney, has seen values fall by 5.6 per cent since peaking in July last year; a trajectory that is straight down the middle of previous downturns.
“During the GFC, Sydney dwelling values fell by 7 per cent in the space of 12 months, and the downturn before that, in 2003 to 2006, saw values fall 7.1 per cent over the same number of months.
“Even in markets where values have been falling consistently for more than four years on the back of material weakening in economic and demographic conditions, we haven’t seen values fall anywhere near 40 per cent.”
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