Researcher plays down Melbourne oversupply concerns

Researcher plays down Melbourne oversupply concerns

Oversupply concerns in Melbourne are mere speculation, with vacancy rates and auction clearance rates suggesting an undersupply, says a Melbourne-based property researcher.

Citing SQM research showing Melbourne vacancy rates tumbling to just 1.5 per cent in March, and clearance rates upwards of the 70 percentile, Bill Nikolouzakis of Nyko Property said talk of an oversupply is unfounded.

“I certainly don’t subscribe to that fact, I think it is speculation. I think the only place that has an oversupply right now in the short term is probably Brisbane, in the apartment market,” said Mr Nikolouzakis.

“I think with the hit that we’ve got in migration in Victoria, you will have to be building at least 40,000 properties per year just to make up for the new population entering our city.

“That’s 2.6 people per household, just over 100,000 people entering our city every year so we’re looking at 35,000 to 40,000 properties just to keep up with the current increase population. So unless we’re building more than that, then I would say there is no risk of an oversupply.”

In addition, Mr Nikolouzakis believes the property market will take care of itself, despite calls for further measures to take the heat out of the current market.

Investors should slow down if prices continue to move north, causing lower yields and making cash flow harder, with first time home buyers continuing to struggle in the medium term.

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