The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released national accounts data for the March quarter, showing GDP growth of 0.4 per cent and annual growth falling to its lowest levels since the second half of 2009 at 1.8 per cent.
This comes after a further 2.5 per cent decline was reported in dwelling investment for the last quarter.
For AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver, this data is concerning for the Australian economy, noting he expects GDP growth to continue to fall below market expectations.
“We expect that this low-growth environment will continue in Australia for now, and we see GDP growth averaging around 1.75 per cent over 2019, which is below RBA’s forecasts for growth around 2.75 per cent,” Mr Oliver explained.
Mr Oliver said the risk of recession is associated with a slowdown of government spending and mounting uncertainty in the global economy.
“The economy is now in its 28th year of recession-free economic growth, and while the near-term outlook for growth still looks positive as the various parts of the economy muddle through, the outlook for 2020 looks challenging,” he said.
“We see a higher risk of an Australian recession in 2020 – risk of around 25 per cent.”