Dr Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, gives this thoughts for what Australian investors should be keeping an eye on in domestic and international markets:
1. In the US, the focus will be on inflation, with producer price data for September out on Wednesday and consumer price inflation data out on Thursday.
The CPI is expected to show a fall in headline inflation to 2.5 per cent year-on-year, but core CPI inflation is expected to remain around 2.2 per cent year-on-year. This is consistent with inflation as measured by the private consumption deflator, remaining around 2 per cent year-on-year, which is the Fed’s target.
2. Small business optimism data will be released on Monday and is likely to remain very high. September quarter earnings results will also start to flow with corporate tax cuts and strong economic conditions expected to see profits up by over 20 per cent from a year ago. Corporate commentary around the impact of tariffs and wages will be watched closely.
3. Chinese economic data for September will start to be released, with credit data to be watched for evidence of the recent policy easing. Trade data is expected to show a moderation in import growth to around 18 per cent year-on-year, but export growth remaining around 10 per cent year-on-year.
4. In Australia, we will get an update on confidence and housing finance. Expect the September NAB survey to show continuing solid business conditions but more subdued confidence, consumer confidence to show a slight improvement after its August fall and housing finance to show continuing softness in loans to property investors.
5. The RBA’s Financial Stability Review will also be watched closely given the house price downturn and fears that tightening lending standards risks turning into a credit crunch partly in response to the royal commission.