Invest
Top Aussie economists reveal cash rate predictions
Australia’s leading economists have unanimously agreed on what the RBA’s cash rate decision tomorrow will be, and have offered up predictions for when the next cash rate move will occur.
Top Aussie economists reveal cash rate predictions
Australia’s leading economists have unanimously agreed on what the RBA’s cash rate decision tomorrow will be, and have offered up predictions for when the next cash rate move will occur.
The finder.com.au RBA cash rate survey has revealed that all 34 surveyed economists and experts expect the RBA will hold the cash rate at 1.5 per cent for May 2017 when it announces its decision tomorrow.
Looking ahead, 78 per cent of panellists predict the next change to the cash rate will be an increase. This is a slight dip from the sentiment shown in April when 86 per cent of panellists predicted the next move to be an increase.
However 81 per cent of those predicting an increase don’t see it happening until 2018, with 60 per cent not expecting it until April 2018 at the earliest.
While the experts stand united in predicting no change this month, rate changes have not been uncommon at this time of year according to Graham Cooke, insights manager at finder.com.au.
“In the last seven years, the Reserve Bank has cut rates five times in May. By this time of year, inflation and GDP data is released and the Bank has enough confidence to make a move,” Mr Cooke said.
“However, economists are universal in expecting no movement tomorrow.”
While the recently released inflation figures are moving into the RBA's target range they are still on the low side according to Michael Yardney from Metropole Property Strategists.
“Until job numbers improve it would be safe to assume the RBA won’t be hiking interest rates to slow the property markets down,” Mr Yardney said.
“On the other hand they can't afford to drop rates and fuel our property markets.”
Laing+Simmons managing director Leanne Pilkington also believes there are insufficient drivers to force the Reserve Bank to adjust rates at this time.
“While recent inflation figures appear to suggest the economy is moving in the right direction, concerns around demand for employment remain, and the forthcoming Federal budget is yet to go under analysts' microscopes,” Ms Pilkington said.
“Against this background, we believe the prudent course is for the Reserve Bank to hold.”
Meanwhile Monash University Associate Professor Mark Crosby believes Australia will wait to see what happens in the US before increasing the cash rate here.
“The RBA will wait another month or two to evaluate global developments and assess the probability of a new US rate rise before considering raising,” Mr Crosby said.
Spending
Online spending on the rise again amid Omicron surge
Aussies are spending more online but are spending less overall. ...Read more
Spending
Holiday spending stunted by Omicron
Spending in the week after Christmas fell as much as 25 per cent. ...Read more
Spending
Boxing Day sales will drive $4bn in spending
Nearly 70 per cent of Australians are expected to participate in Boxing Day sales this year. ...Read more
Spending
Record consumer spending set to continue after Christmas
Australian shoppers are expected to maintain record levels of spending. ...Read more
Spending
Aussies splash record cash for Black Friday and Cyber Monday
More than $8 billion was spent between the two shopping holidays, according to NAB estimates. ...Read more
Spending
Festive shopping expected to be bigger and earlier than ever
Australians are set to spend $60 billion at retailers across the country. ...Read more
Spending
Aussies’ spending on subscription rises, but will it stick?
Aussies carved out a greater slice of their spending budgets when it came to streaming services during the pandemic. ...Read more
Spending
Qantas announces $2.3bn loss but plans to be flying again by Christmas
Australia’s national carrier has revealed the devastating impacts border closures have had on the company, while noting a possible return date to international operations in its full-year market upd...Read more
Wrapping up an eventful 2021
Listen now
What Omicron means for property, and are units right for first-time buyers? What is equity crowdfunding? Are industry super funds tapping into member funds to save their skins?
Listen now
Will housing affordability improve in 2022? Will buy now, pay later become the norm? Why are Aussies staying in failing super products?
Listen now
Who really benefits from crypto ETFs? How will the RBA respond to rising inflation? Could a mandate help address unpaid super?
Listen now
Spending
Online spending on the rise again amid Omicron surge
Aussies are spending more online but are spending less overall. ...Read more
Spending
Holiday spending stunted by Omicron
Spending in the week after Christmas fell as much as 25 per cent. ...Read more
Spending
Boxing Day sales will drive $4bn in spending
Nearly 70 per cent of Australians are expected to participate in Boxing Day sales this year. ...Read more
Spending
Record consumer spending set to continue after Christmas
Australian shoppers are expected to maintain record levels of spending. ...Read more
Spending
Aussies splash record cash for Black Friday and Cyber Monday
More than $8 billion was spent between the two shopping holidays, according to NAB estimates. ...Read more
Spending
Festive shopping expected to be bigger and earlier than ever
Australians are set to spend $60 billion at retailers across the country. ...Read more
Spending
Aussies’ spending on subscription rises, but will it stick?
Aussies carved out a greater slice of their spending budgets when it came to streaming services during the pandemic. ...Read more
Spending
Qantas announces $2.3bn loss but plans to be flying again by Christmas
Australia’s national carrier has revealed the devastating impacts border closures have had on the company, while noting a possible return date to international operations in its full-year market upd...Read more
More articles
Website Notifications
Get notifications in real-time for staying up to date with content that matters to you.
