Analysis by the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) has shown that due to a number of factors, inclusive of transactional costs, buying and selling multiple times, stamp duty and capital gains, property investors who attempt to time the market are actually worse off.

PIPA chairman Peter Koulizos said most investors simply do not have the skills or the knowledge to expertly select the best markets to invest in over the short term.

“Most people are only thinking of the potential price uplifts when they try to time a market and naively don’t consider the inherent risks involved in such a market gamble,” he said.

In making the point about timing, PIPA outlined that the top three performing capital cities over the past 15 years have been Melbourne, Hobart and Darwin, with median house price growth between 106 and 147 per cent. 

The best capital city between 2003 and 2008 was Darwin at 91 per cent growth; from 2008 to 2013, it was Sydney at 41 per cent; and from 2013 to 2018, both Sydney and Melbourne at 38 per cent.

According to Mr Koulizos, the data showed that “no market is the strongest for a sustained period of time, with Sydney’s market actually the strongest prior to the most recent price upswing”.

“However, for investors who tried to time the market but chose the worst-performing capital cities over each five-year period, they could be out of pocket to the tune of $137,701,” Mr Koulizos said. 

About the author

Cameron is a journalist for Momentum Media's nestegg and Smart Property Investment. He enjoys giving Aussies practical financial tips and tricks to help grow their wealth and achieve financial independence. As a self-confessed finance nerd, Cameron enjoys chatting with industry experts and commentators to leverage their insights to grow your portfolio.

About the author

Cameron is a journalist for Momentum Media's nestegg and Smart Property Investment. He enjoys giving Aussies practical financial tips and tricks to help grow their wealth and achieve financial independence. As a self-confessed finance nerd, Cameron enjoys chatting with industry experts and commentators to leverage their insights to grow your portfolio.

Cameron is a journalist for Momentum Media's nestegg and Smart Property Investment. He enjoys giving Aussies practical financial tips and tricks to help grow their wealth and achieve financial independence. As a self-confessed finance nerd, Cameron enjoys chatting with industry experts and commentators to leverage their insights to grow your portfolio.

more on this topic

Property

Zagga's ninth anniversary sees focus on investor education in real estate private credit

In a significant milestone, Zagga, a key player in the Australian real estate sector, is celebrating its ninth anniversary with a renewed commitment to investor education. The company has grown ...Read more

Property

Australian property’s quiet pivot: resilience hides a new competitive map

Australia’s housing market remains sturdier than the macro noise suggests, but the sources of resilience have shifted. For operators, the profit pool is migrating from ‘volume at any price’ to ...Read more

Property

Gen Z’s 5% deposit rush: how policy‑driven demand is reshaping Australia’s housing value chain

A government-backed 5% deposit guarantee has triggered a surge in first-home buyer intent among Gen Z, pulling forward demand and resetting competition across banks, brokers and buildersRead more

Property

Cautious bidders, smarter sellers: a Queensland auction case study on repricing risk

Queensland’s auction market has hit a caution cycle as buyers price in higher borrowing costs, global uncertainty and cost-of-living pressure. Clearance softness is forcing agencies to re-engineer ...Read more

Property

Trust, technology and triage: what NSW’s ‘name and shame’ signals for real estate governance

NSW’s latest enforcement action on real estate trust accounts isn’t a one-off embarrassment; it’s a stress test of sector governance. With licences suspended and penalties applied, the message is ...Read more

Property

Vacancy is rising, demand is resilient: A case study in defending yield as Australia’s rental cycle rebalances

After a blistering run, Australia’s rental market is loosening at the edges. Vacancy is edging up off historic lows, rent inflation is set to moderate into 2026, yet underlying demand remains ...Read more

Property

Don’t lose the deposit: A case study in stopping real estate payment fraud — and the ROI for doing it

Deposit redirection scams are quietly eroding buyer savings and agency reputations in Australia’s property market. This case study unpacks how a mid-tier real estate group redesigned its settlement ...Read more

Property

The $12m threshold: Why portfolio value, not property count, now defines Australia’s investor elite

The old yardstick of six properties as shorthand for investment success has been overtaken by a harsher reality: in today’s market, elite status is defined by balance-sheet strength, not asset countRead more