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In this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja checks in with our three experts to discuss this week’s biggest conversations about super, property and investment.

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Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, talks about the current market and its growth prospects, hinting at a “revenge spend” period post-lockdown. Could property prices really inflate by a further 20 per cent?

Meanwhile, RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, talks about the earning season and dividends, delving into how companies decide distribution policy. Find out what is happening in the recent dividend announcements.

Last but not least, tax and super guru Timothy Munro talks us through the results of APRA’s inaugural super test and how engaged members should really be with their super. Timothy also touches on the super splitting law and what it means for relationship breakdowns.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured in the next episode.

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RBA cuts start ‘mini housing boom’

By Cameron Micallef

October 11 2019
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Invest

RBA cuts start ‘mini housing boom’

By Cameron Micallef
October 11 2019

Australia’s debt-fuelled housing price bubble is at risk of re-inflating from three rate reductions in five months, as the central bank struggles to balance low inflation and high household debt.

RBA cuts start ‘mini housing boom’

By Cameron Micallef

October 11 2019
Share

Australia’s debt-fuelled housing price bubble is at risk of re-inflating from three rate reductions in five months, as the central bank struggles to balance low inflation and high household debt.

Analysis from UBS Australia found home loans are the key indicator of home prices and credit growth, which has cumulatively risen by 12 per cent in just three months.

This has reversed a significant share of the 27 per cent peak-to-trough collapse from August 2017 to May 2019.

“When APRA and the RBA first eased and we changed our house price forecasts from falls to a modest rise, we noted the risk that they would reflate the housing market,” UBS said.

Start of a mini boom

Following coordinated policy easing from APRA and the RBA, home loan rebounds of 12 per cent in three months have led UBS Australia to state that the housing market is in a “mini boom”.

According to CoreLogic’s Tim Lawless, “although housing values are now consistently tracking higher, at least at a macro level, the national index remains 6.8 per cent below the October 2017 peak, indicating that buyers still have some time to take advantage of improved housing affordability before values return to record highs”.

In August, investor-purchased properties spiked in value by 5.7 per cent month-on-month, the most since 2016, UBS said.

Owner-occupier–purchased property values also rose by 1.9 per cent, with established, ready-to-go homes experiencing faster growth than those that need renovations, although they are also rebounding.

As a percentage of the market, first home buyers have also surged to a 19.6 per cent share, the highest since the GFC, the investment bank said.

However, volatile developer loans have still dropped, which UBS said indicates limited spillover from strong established housing prices to further weakening of new housing activity.

The investment bank has also forecast a further rate cut in November, which when combined with record-low uptakes on new loans means the market might only recover to 4 per cent year-on-year.

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About the author

Cameron Micallef

Cameron is a journalist for Momentum Media's nestegg and Smart Property Investment. He enjoys giving Aussies practical financial tips and tricks to help grow their wealth and achieve financial independence. As a self-confessed finance nerd, Cameron enjoys chatting with industry experts and commentators to leverage their insights to grow your portfolio.

About the author

Cameron Micallef

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