Invest
RBA cuts start ‘mini housing boom’
Australia’s debt-fuelled housing price bubble is at risk of re-inflating from three rate reductions in five months, as the central bank struggles to balance low inflation and high household debt.
RBA cuts start ‘mini housing boom’
Australia’s debt-fuelled housing price bubble is at risk of re-inflating from three rate reductions in five months, as the central bank struggles to balance low inflation and high household debt.
Analysis from UBS Australia found home loans are the key indicator of home prices and credit growth, which has cumulatively risen by 12 per cent in just three months.
This has reversed a significant share of the 27 per cent peak-to-trough collapse from August 2017 to May 2019.
“When APRA and the RBA first eased and we changed our house price forecasts from falls to a modest rise, we noted the risk that they would reflate the housing market,” UBS said.
Start of a mini boom
Following coordinated policy easing from APRA and the RBA, home loan rebounds of 12 per cent in three months have led UBS Australia to state that the housing market is in a “mini boom”.
According to CoreLogic’s Tim Lawless, “although housing values are now consistently tracking higher, at least at a macro level, the national index remains 6.8 per cent below the October 2017 peak, indicating that buyers still have some time to take advantage of improved housing affordability before values return to record highs”.
In August, investor-purchased properties spiked in value by 5.7 per cent month-on-month, the most since 2016, UBS said.
Owner-occupier–purchased property values also rose by 1.9 per cent, with established, ready-to-go homes experiencing faster growth than those that need renovations, although they are also rebounding.
As a percentage of the market, first home buyers have also surged to a 19.6 per cent share, the highest since the GFC, the investment bank said.
However, volatile developer loans have still dropped, which UBS said indicates limited spillover from strong established housing prices to further weakening of new housing activity.
The investment bank has also forecast a further rate cut in November, which when combined with record-low uptakes on new loans means the market might only recover to 4 per cent year-on-year.
RELATED ARTICLES
-
Trust, technology and triage: what NSW’s ‘name and shame’ signals for real estate governance
-
Vacancy is rising, demand is resilient: A case study in defending yield as Australia’s rental cycle rebalances
-
Don’t lose the deposit: A case study in stopping real estate payment fraud — and the ROI for doing it
About the author
About the author
Property
Trust, technology and triage: what NSW’s ‘name and shame’ signals for real estate governance
NSW’s latest enforcement action on real estate trust accounts isn’t a one-off embarrassment; it’s a stress test of sector governance. With licences suspended and penalties applied, the message is ...Read more
Property
Vacancy is rising, demand is resilient: A case study in defending yield as Australia’s rental cycle rebalances
After a blistering run, Australia’s rental market is loosening at the edges. Vacancy is edging up off historic lows, rent inflation is set to moderate into 2026, yet underlying demand remains ...Read more
Property
Don’t lose the deposit: A case study in stopping real estate payment fraud — and the ROI for doing it
Deposit redirection scams are quietly eroding buyer savings and agency reputations in Australia’s property market. This case study unpacks how a mid-tier real estate group redesigned its settlement ...Read more
Property
The $12m threshold: Why portfolio value, not property count, now defines Australia’s investor elite
The old yardstick of six properties as shorthand for investment success has been overtaken by a harsher reality: in today’s market, elite status is defined by balance-sheet strength, not asset countRead more
Property
From intuition to instrumentation: How a "two-stakeholder" sales playbook lifted close rates and cut cycle times
High-stakes consumer purchases are increasingly joint decisions. When one partner is under-served, deals stall. This case study follows an Australian real estate group that rebuilt its sales motion ...Read more
Property
Selling in 2025: How to spot bad agents fast—and build an ROI-first vendor playbook
In Australia’s property market, choosing the wrong listing agent isn’t just inconvenient—it’s a textbook principal–agent failure that can wipe tens of thousands off your sale outcomeRead more
Property
Selling in 2026: How to de‑risk your agent choice and protect tens of thousands at settlement
Choosing the wrong selling agent isn’t just an inconvenience — it’s a balance‑sheet risk. In a market where digital discovery is concentrated and AI is recasting how listings are priced and promoted, ...Read more
Property
Rate resilience in Australian housing: why scarce supply is overpowering monetary tightening
Australia’s housing market is defying higher borrowing costs because the binding constraint isn’t demand—it’s supply. Brokers report persistent buyer competition and investor repositioning, while ...Read more
Property
Trust, technology and triage: what NSW’s ‘name and shame’ signals for real estate governance
NSW’s latest enforcement action on real estate trust accounts isn’t a one-off embarrassment; it’s a stress test of sector governance. With licences suspended and penalties applied, the message is ...Read more
Property
Vacancy is rising, demand is resilient: A case study in defending yield as Australia’s rental cycle rebalances
After a blistering run, Australia’s rental market is loosening at the edges. Vacancy is edging up off historic lows, rent inflation is set to moderate into 2026, yet underlying demand remains ...Read more
Property
Don’t lose the deposit: A case study in stopping real estate payment fraud — and the ROI for doing it
Deposit redirection scams are quietly eroding buyer savings and agency reputations in Australia’s property market. This case study unpacks how a mid-tier real estate group redesigned its settlement ...Read more
Property
The $12m threshold: Why portfolio value, not property count, now defines Australia’s investor elite
The old yardstick of six properties as shorthand for investment success has been overtaken by a harsher reality: in today’s market, elite status is defined by balance-sheet strength, not asset countRead more
Property
From intuition to instrumentation: How a "two-stakeholder" sales playbook lifted close rates and cut cycle times
High-stakes consumer purchases are increasingly joint decisions. When one partner is under-served, deals stall. This case study follows an Australian real estate group that rebuilt its sales motion ...Read more
Property
Selling in 2025: How to spot bad agents fast—and build an ROI-first vendor playbook
In Australia’s property market, choosing the wrong listing agent isn’t just inconvenient—it’s a textbook principal–agent failure that can wipe tens of thousands off your sale outcomeRead more
Property
Selling in 2026: How to de‑risk your agent choice and protect tens of thousands at settlement
Choosing the wrong selling agent isn’t just an inconvenience — it’s a balance‑sheet risk. In a market where digital discovery is concentrated and AI is recasting how listings are priced and promoted, ...Read more
Property
Rate resilience in Australian housing: why scarce supply is overpowering monetary tightening
Australia’s housing market is defying higher borrowing costs because the binding constraint isn’t demand—it’s supply. Brokers report persistent buyer competition and investor repositioning, while ...Read more
