Invest
NAB predicts house prices will stall before dropping significantly
A “turning point” for Australia’s property market is expected to occur later this year.
NAB predicts house prices will stall before dropping significantly
A “turning point” for Australia’s property market is expected to occur later this year.
NAB has revised down its outlook for property prices in 2022 and 2023, after predicting the first interest rate hike to occur in November this year.
Property prices are now expected to reach a “turning point” in the second half of 2022 before falling in 2023, according to the latest residential property survey from NAB’s Group Economics, led by group chief economist Alan Oster.
“Overall, we see dwelling prices rising around 3 per cent in 2022 before a decline of around 10 per cent in 2023,” NAB said.
“We see this as a relatively orderly decline, and it is important to remember this correction comes after a very sharp run up in prices over the last year. More broadly we expect the economy to continue seeing healthy outcomes.”
NAB foresees price drops of 11.4 per cent in both Sydney and Melbourne in 2023, along with declines of 8.1 per cent in Perth, 6.4 per cent in Brisbane, 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, and 4.1 per cent in Hobart.
Moreover, price growth across the capital cities this year is anticipated to be only a fraction of the growth seen in 2021.
For the full year, growth of 1.9 per cent is expected in Sydney compared to 25.3 per cent last year, while Melbourne is expected to record growth of 1.2 per cent, down from 15.1 per cent.
“We have brought forward the timing of the correction we expect in house prices to late-2022 as affordability constraints begin to bite and rising mortgage rates place downward pressure on prices,” said NAB.
“This would offset gains seen in early-2022, so that overall, prices end the year roughly flat.”
House prices in Brisbane are predicted to end this year 4.2 per cent higher, with growth of 4.5 per cent in Hobart, 3.5 per cent in Adelaide and 1.2 per cent in Perth.
“More broadly we expect the economy to continue seeing healthy outcomes. With above trend growth this year, we see unemployment drifting lower, boosting wage growth and driving more sustainable inflation,” NAB said.
“This would see the RBA begin normalising rates from November 2022 with a steady series of hikes to come through 2023 and 2024.”
RELATED ARTICLES
Property
Hidden cost, higher prices: Why a council fee fight matters for Australia’s housing pipeline
A dispute between the Housing Industry Association and Goulburn Mulwaree Council over development cost estimates is more than a local skirmish—it spotlights a systemic pricing lever that can compound ...Read more
Property
Why Aussie homes are turning into stepping stones for the new generation
A new cohort of buyers is treating their first property as a launchpad, not a destination—and the mortgage industry is pivoting in lockstep. Read more
Property
Rate cuts ignite an upsizing wave: how to win the next phase of Australia’s housing cycle
Cheaper money is reviving borrowing capacity and confidence, and upsizers are back in force — most visibly at auctions where clearance rates have lifted to yearly highs. The ripple effects extend ...Read more
Property
Rate anxiety fades, affordability bites: What Australia’s property market shift means for business
Australian buyers are no longer driven primarily by interest rate fears; the binding constraint is affordability. New research shows price pressure, not policy moves, is shaping behaviour—forcing ...Read more
Property
South Australia's first-home buyer boom fuels a frenzy for lenders, builders and retailers
South Australia has quietly become the nation’s most active first‑home buyer market, fuelled by falling rates, generous state incentives and a responsive broker ecosystem. Read more
Property
Melbourne’s turning point: the 2025 playbook for investors—and the 2026 upside
After lagging other capitals, Melbourne is quietly moving off the floor. Prices have logged several consecutive months of growth, rental markets remain tight, and forecasts point to a sharper upswing ...Read more
Property
Brisbane hits the million-dollar mark as growth takes a detour and investors eye new opportunities
Brisbane has crossed the symbolic $1 million median for houses, but the more investable momentum is in units—and the growth curve is flattening. Read more
Property
North platform adds household reporting feature to boost adviser efficiency
AMP's North platform has launched consolidated household reporting across multiple client accounts, helping financial advisers streamline their client review processes. Read more
Property
Hidden cost, higher prices: Why a council fee fight matters for Australia’s housing pipeline
A dispute between the Housing Industry Association and Goulburn Mulwaree Council over development cost estimates is more than a local skirmish—it spotlights a systemic pricing lever that can compound ...Read more
Property
Why Aussie homes are turning into stepping stones for the new generation
A new cohort of buyers is treating their first property as a launchpad, not a destination—and the mortgage industry is pivoting in lockstep. Read more
Property
Rate cuts ignite an upsizing wave: how to win the next phase of Australia’s housing cycle
Cheaper money is reviving borrowing capacity and confidence, and upsizers are back in force — most visibly at auctions where clearance rates have lifted to yearly highs. The ripple effects extend ...Read more
Property
Rate anxiety fades, affordability bites: What Australia’s property market shift means for business
Australian buyers are no longer driven primarily by interest rate fears; the binding constraint is affordability. New research shows price pressure, not policy moves, is shaping behaviour—forcing ...Read more
Property
South Australia's first-home buyer boom fuels a frenzy for lenders, builders and retailers
South Australia has quietly become the nation’s most active first‑home buyer market, fuelled by falling rates, generous state incentives and a responsive broker ecosystem. Read more
Property
Melbourne’s turning point: the 2025 playbook for investors—and the 2026 upside
After lagging other capitals, Melbourne is quietly moving off the floor. Prices have logged several consecutive months of growth, rental markets remain tight, and forecasts point to a sharper upswing ...Read more
Property
Brisbane hits the million-dollar mark as growth takes a detour and investors eye new opportunities
Brisbane has crossed the symbolic $1 million median for houses, but the more investable momentum is in units—and the growth curve is flattening. Read more
Property
North platform adds household reporting feature to boost adviser efficiency
AMP's North platform has launched consolidated household reporting across multiple client accounts, helping financial advisers streamline their client review processes. Read more
