Eric Marais, Head of Investment Specialists at Orbis Investments, emphasised the importance of this introspective approach. "Change has accelerated, and it’s reshaping the investment landscape. In this environment, success will require the courage to test assumptions, act when opportunities arise, and the discipline to be selective," Marais stated, highlighting the dynamic nature of current market conditions.

The report's central message is clear: investors should strive for genuine diversification, maintain a disciplined approach to valuations, and rebalance their portfolios to enhance resilience. Marais elaborated on this by saying, "For Orbis, that means looking at neglected areas of the market, such as opportunities in the healthcare sector, US companies left behind in the AI boom, and emerging markets."

Orbis suggests that the key to success in 2026 lies not in having all the answers but in asking the right questions. "Success isn’t about having all the answers - it’s about asking the important questions. We would encourage investors to use these questions to test their assumptions and act with discipline and conviction in 2026," Marais added.

The report poses six pivotal questions, starting with the potential shift in US market leadership. Orbis questions whether the exceptionalism that has driven the success of the US's largest stocks is sustainable. With investors paying 34 times earnings for mega-cap technology companies, the report warns of the dangers associated with extreme concentration and valuation risks. "History suggests that when market leadership becomes this narrow, opportunity for investors often shifts elsewhere," the report notes, urging investors to consider the broader market landscape beyond the dominant players.

Another critical question raised by Orbis concerns the US dollar's status as the world's safest currency. The report highlights the pressures facing the dollar, including potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and fiscal challenges that could weaken its long-term prospects. Orbis suggests that investors might benefit from diversifying into alternative currencies with attractive characteristics, such as the Australian dollar, Japanese yen, and Norwegian krone.

Orbis also encourages investors to scrutinise their portfolio allocations in light of shifting global dynamics. With US policy becoming more inward-focused, other export-led economies are expected to adapt by increasing domestic investment and fiscal expansion. This shift could offer new opportunities in markets outside the US, where assets and currencies remain undervalued. "This potentially marks a new era for markets outside the US where assets and currencies are currently cheap – potentially offering a ‘double discount’ for investors," the report asserts.

Emerging markets (EM) present another area of interest for Orbis, as they currently trade at more attractive valuations compared to their US counterparts. While investing in EMs carries inherent risks, Orbis believes these risks are often reflected in visible discounts. The report challenges investors to consider whether avoiding EMs might pose a deeper risk to portfolio resilience. "An important consideration for investors seeking to build stronger, more resilient long-term portfolios is the diversification benefit EM exposure may provide," the report advises.

The potential bubble in the AI sector is another topic of exploration. Orbis acknowledges the transformative potential of AI technology but warns investors of the risks associated with overpaying for speculative investments. Instead, the report suggests seeking selective exposure to companies that can harness the structural benefits of AI adoption without the inflated valuations.

Finally, Orbis raises the prospect of a global shift towards national self-reliance, a trend accelerated by policies from the Trump administration. This shift towards prioritising national security, food, and energy security marks a structural reset, according to Orbis. The report encourages investors to consider companies that cater to these foundational needs as potentially undervalued opportunities in the global market.

Overall, Orbis Investments' report serves as a call to action for investors to question established assumptions and explore new avenues for growth and resilience in the ever-evolving investment landscape.

This article contains general information only and not personal advice.

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