State Street's 2026 global market outlook anticipates cautious growth with strategic investment shifts

By Newsdesk

December 04 2025
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State Street Investment Management, the world's fourth-largest asset manager, has released its much-anticipated 2026 Global Market Outlook (GMO) report titled "Forward with Focus." The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global economic landscape and outlines key investment themes for the upcoming year. As investors navigate a world shaped by evolving policy decisions and the transformative rise of artificial intelligence, State Street's insights offer a roadmap for strategic asset allocation.

State Street's 2026 global market outlook anticipates cautious growth with strategic investment shifts

According to the report, the global economy is poised for continued, albeit cautious, growth in 2026. This growth trajectory is being influenced by delayed impacts from major fiscal and monetary measures, as well as the ongoing integration of AI technologies across various sectors. State Street remains optimistic about equities, showing a slight preference for US stocks. In the realm of fixed income, the asset manager favours government bonds over credit across most advanced economies.

Jonathan Shead, Head of Investments for Australia at State Street, provided further insights into the report's findings. He emphasised the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) current focus on managing inflation, despite a softening labour market. "The RBA remains more focused on managing inflation and less on the softening labour market justifying its cautious stance," Shead stated. "While markets have interpreted that as expecting no further cuts, a material deterioration in employment could prompt a policy pivot toward accommodation."

Shead also highlighted the importance of maintaining a global perspective when it comes to investment strategies. "With the global outlook improved and no obvious catalysts for further domestic growth, Australian investors should seek globally diversified portfolios," he advised. "In practice, this means tilting portfolios to have a lower home bias, particularly in equities."

The report suggests that Australian investors should be cautious about domestic equities, given their current valuations and momentum. Instead, Shead recommends diversifying across various asset classes, including Australian fixed income and gold, to mitigate the uncertainties present in global markets. "We are cautious on Australian equities as valuations and momentum remain unattractive," he noted. "Diversifying across asset classes including Australian fixed income – which we think is attractive at this stage, offering income, capital preservation and diversification - and gold will also help investors deal with the still considerable uncertainty in global markets."

State Street's preference for government bonds over credit is rooted in the stability and security they offer in uncertain economic times. This approach aligns with the broader theme of cautious optimism that permeates the report. As the global economy continues to adapt to new fiscal and monetary realities, the emphasis on strategic diversification and risk management becomes increasingly crucial.

The transformative impact of artificial intelligence is another focal point in the report. As AI technologies continue to evolve, they are expected to drive significant changes across industries, influencing both economic growth and investment strategies. State Street's outlook suggests that investors should remain attentive to these developments and consider the potential implications for their portfolios.

Overall, the "Forward with Focus" report underscores the importance of adaptability and strategic foresight in navigating the complexities of the global economy. As investors face a landscape marked by both opportunities and challenges, State Street's insights provide valuable guidance for making informed decisions in 2026 and beyond.

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