array(1) { [0]=> &object(stdClass)#5994 (52) { ["id"]=> string(5) "16922" ["title"]=> string(122) "Are you being priced out of the market? Have you got the Tuesday blues? And are you ready for the upcoming super changes? " ["alias"]=> string(118) "are-you-being-priced-out-of-the-market-have-you-got-the-tuesday-blues-and-are-you-ready-for-the-upcoming-super-changes" ["introtext"]=> string(242) "

On this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja Garaca Djurdjevic and three experts discuss whether owner-occupiers should withdraw from the property market, the effects of Tuesday blues on the ASX, upcoming super changes and more.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(936) "

Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, chats about current property price movements and whether owner-occupiers are being priced out of the market.

RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, delves into the Tuesday blues effect and the implications for Aussie investors.

And lastly, tax and super guru Timothy Munro talks about upcoming super changes and shares his handy checklist ahead of tax time.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured on the next episode.

" ["checked_out"]=> string(1) "0" ["checked_out_time"]=> string(19) "0000-00-00 00:00:00" ["catid"]=> string(3) "302" ["created"]=> string(19) "2021-06-15 06:25:29" ["created_by"]=> string(4) "2404" ["created_by_alias"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> string(1) "1" ["modified"]=> string(19) "2021-06-15 08:26:44" ["modified_by"]=> string(4) "2404" ["modified_by_name"]=> string(12) "Robyn Tongol" ["publish_up"]=> string(19) "2021-06-15 08:26:44" ["publish_down"]=> string(19) "0000-00-00 00:00:00" ["images"]=> string(240) "{"image_intro":"images\/podcasts\/060421_Angel_Zhong_Steve_Waters_Timothy_Munro.jpg","float_intro":"","image_intro_alt":"","image_intro_caption":"","image_fulltext":"","float_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_alt":"","image_fulltext_caption":""}" ["urls"]=> string(121) "{"urla":false,"urlatext":"","targeta":"","urlb":false,"urlbtext":"","targetb":"","urlc":false,"urlctext":"","targetc":""}" ["attribs"]=> string(855) "{"article_layout":"","show_title":"","link_titles":"","show_tags":"","show_intro":"","info_block_position":"","info_block_show_title":"","show_category":"","link_category":"","show_parent_category":"","link_parent_category":"","show_associations":"","show_author":"","link_author":"","show_create_date":"","show_modify_date":"","show_publish_date":"","show_item_navigation":"","show_icons":"","show_print_icon":"","show_email_icon":"","show_vote":"","show_hits":"","show_noauth":"","urls_position":"","alternative_readmore":"","article_page_title":"","video_url":"","channel_id":"UCLBR-2LtTtui_WiRuEfW3qA","send":"0","test":"0","comments":"1","readingDiff":"3","schema_active":"0","schema_name":"","schema_description":"","schema_thumbnailUrl":"","schema_uploadDate":"","schema_duration":"","schema_contentUrl":"","schema_embedUrl":"","canonical_link":""}" ["metadata"]=> string(68) "{"robots":"","author":"","rights":"","xreference":"","metatitle":""}" ["metakey"]=> string(54) "priced, market, tuesday, blues, ready, upcoming, super" ["metadesc"]=> string(200) "On this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja Garaca Djurdjevic and three experts discuss whether owner-occupiers should withdraw from the property market, the effects of Tuesday blues on the ASX" ["access"]=> string(1) "1" ["hits"]=> string(2) "55" ["xreference"]=> string(0) "" ["featured"]=> string(1) "0" ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["readmore"]=> string(3) "936" ["ordering"]=> string(1) "0" ["category_title"]=> string(7) "Podcast" ["category_route"]=> string(17) "resources/podcast" ["category_access"]=> string(1) "1" ["category_alias"]=> string(7) "podcast" ["published"]=> string(1) "1" ["parents_published"]=> string(1) "1" ["lft"]=> string(2) "82" ["author"]=> string(12) "Robyn Tongol" ["author_email"]=> string(33) "[email protected]" ["parent_title"]=> string(9) "Resources" ["parent_id"]=> string(3) "300" ["parent_route"]=> string(9) "resources" ["parent_alias"]=> string(9) "resources" ["alternative_readmore"]=> NULL ["layout"]=> NULL ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#6141 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#5991 (95) { ["article_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_titles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_intro"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["link_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_associations"]=> string(1) "0" ["flags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_author"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_create_date"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_modify_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_publish_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_item_navigation"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_vote"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["readmore_limit"]=> string(3) "100" ["show_tags"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_icons"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_print_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_email_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["record_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_noauth"]=> string(1) "0" ["urls_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["captcha"]=> string(0) "" ["show_publishing_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_article_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["save_history"]=> string(1) "1" ["history_limit"]=> int(10) ["show_urls_images_frontend"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_urls_images_backend"]=> string(1) "1" ["targeta"]=> int(0) ["targetb"]=> int(0) ["targetc"]=> int(0) ["float_intro"]=> string(4) "left" ["float_fulltext"]=> string(5) "right" ["category_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_category_heading_title_text"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_description"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_description_image"]=> string(1) "0" ["maxLevel"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_no_articles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_subcat_desc"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_cat_tags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_base_description"]=> string(1) "1" ["maxLevelcat"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories_cat"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcat_desc_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["num_leading_articles"]=> string(2) "14" ["num_intro_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_columns"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_links"]=> string(1) "0" ["multi_column_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcategory_content"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_pagination_limit"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter_field"]=> string(4) "hide" ["show_headings"]=> string(1) "1" ["list_show_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["date_format"]=> string(0) "" ["list_show_hits"]=> string(1) "0" ["list_show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["orderby_pri"]=> string(4) "none" ["orderby_sec"]=> string(5) "rdate" ["order_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["show_pagination"]=> string(1) "2" ["show_pagination_results"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_featured"]=> string(4) "show" ["show_feed_link"]=> string(1) "1" ["feed_summary"]=> string(1) "0" ["feed_show_readmore"]=> string(1) "0" ["sef_advanced"]=> int(1) ["sef_ids"]=> int(1) ["custom_fields_enable"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_page_heading"]=> NULL ["layout_type"]=> string(4) "blog" ["menu_text"]=> int(1) ["menu_show"]=> int(1) ["page_title"]=> string(71) "Invest Money - Strategies and Tools for your Investment Goals | nestegg" ["menu-meta_description"]=> string(180) "Let us help you decide how you want to invest your money on. Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, property and stock market." ["secure"]=> int(0) ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["page_heading"]=> string(71) "Invest Money - Strategies and Tools for your Investment Goals | nestegg" ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator"]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2021-06-15 08:26:44" ["slug"]=> string(124) "16922:are-you-being-priced-out-of-the-market-have-you-got-the-tuesday-blues-and-are-you-ready-for-the-upcoming-super-changes" ["catslug"]=> string(11) "302:podcast" ["link"]=> string(137) "/resources/podcast/are-you-being-priced-out-of-the-market-have-you-got-the-tuesday-blues-and-are-you-ready-for-the-upcoming-super-changes" ["image"]=> string(65) "images/podcasts/060421_Angel_Zhong_Steve_Waters_Timothy_Munro.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(0) "" } }

Latest Podcast

Are you being priced out of the market? Have you got the Tuesday blues? And are ...

Resources

There is $17.5 billion in lost and unclaimed super across ...

Invest

How much risk are you taking?

By Vince Pezzullo

September 28 2017
Share

Invest

How much risk are you taking?

By Vince Pezzullo
September 28 2017

Every year in Australia as we approach the summer months, the Rural Fire Service undertakes a scheduled hazard reduction process known as back-burning.

How much risk are you taking?

By Vince Pezzullo

September 28 2017
Share

Every year in Australia as we approach the summer months, the Rural Fire Service undertakes a scheduled hazard reduction process known as back-burning.

The principle is straightforward: by clearing bushland of accumulated fuel (kindling) through controlled burning, the Rural Fire Service can help prevent larger, uncontrollable infernos.

Hazard reduction is an important and often overlooked part of investing. Markets have a tendency to move between states of fearing the future where people believe there is no justification for being in markets (usually coincides with market bottoms), to believing that risk is easily measured and controlled. At that point, the fear of missing out is all encompassing (and correlations with a market top are typically quite high).

There are several measures that we look at to give an indication of attitudes towards risk. One example is the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility or VIX index, which is a measure of implied volatilities based on a number of S&P 500 index options.

Some market participants believe the VIX index reflects the risk in the market at a point in time. Our view, however, is that it reflects what people believe is the current risk in the market and it becomes self-fulfilling. As markets climb, the VIX index usually falls, as investors believe that risk is falling.

In our opinion, investors should be thinking quite the opposite.

Risk in low volatility stocks are at 20-year highs

We can observe the behaviour of investors by looking at the current valuations that the market is willing to pay to gain access to a company’s future dividends and cash flows. Below is a chart supplied by Goldman Sachs, which shows the beta (a measure of volatility or systemic risk of a company) for ‘low volatility’ companies.

The systematic risk of 'Low Vol' stocks sits at a 20-year high

Average beta (4-yr vs ASX 200) of 'low volatility' stocks.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet, IRESS, I/B/E/S

Historically, 'low volatility' stocks have had lower levels of market risk. The chart indicates that the market has pushed up the prices of what are considered ‘low volatility’ stocks. If you purchase these companies today, you are taking on close to market risk or materially higher risk than has historically been the case. A sample of the stocks included in this ‘low volatility’ basket are listed below:

Telstra
Transurban
Scentre Group
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)
Stockland
GPT Group
National Australia Bank (NAB)
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ)
Westpac Banking Corporation
APA Group
Mirvac
Spark Infrastructure
Suncorp Group
Investa Office Fund
CSL Limited

These companies tend to have low volatility in earnings and cashflow. Due to low interest rates the market has pushed the valuations of these companies up to a point whereby any change to expectations of interest rate changes may lead to a material change in the value of these companies.

Change is in the air

Analysis of the balance sheets of these companies shows that quite a few of them have significant levels of financial leverage. This is in part due to a market environment over the past 10 years where interest rates have been extremely low and real rates have been negative.

As long as interest rates do not rise, these valuations may be justifiable.

However, many central bankers, from the Federal Reserve to the European Central Bank to the Bank of England, have been jawboning about unwinding the asset purchases that have occurred over the last ten years, which will place upward pressure on the long end of the interest rate yield curve.

Even the Reserve Bank of Australia has been talking about a neutral interest rate setting for Australia. That's likely to be around 3.5 per cent – which is materially above current levels.

Two key takeaways

The adage goes that where there’s smoke there’s usually a fire, and Perpetual’s conservative approach to investing has a proven record of acting as an early warning system for investors.

Firstly, and most importantly, be aware of what price/valuation you are paying to get access to a company’s future cash flows/dividend stream.

Secondly, the valuation that other investors are willing to pay can tell you critical information about the risk appetite of the market. The above example shows that the valuations of ‘low risk/low volatility’ companies have been pushed up to levels whereby investors may be taking on a lot more risk than they think.

Vince Pezzullo is deputy head of equities, portfolio manager at Perpetual.

Forward this article to a friend. Follow us on Linkedin. Join us on Facebook. Find us on Twitter for the latest updates

Rate the article

Investment insights

How Aussies can invest like Warren Buffett

Arguably the most successful investor of the modern age, Warren Buffett is still the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at 90 years old, and currently has a net worth of over $100 billion, writes ...Read more

Investment insights

Pahari leaves AMP as it pursues demerger

In yet another twist, AMP has announced its intentions to pursue a demerger of its private markets business, a move that has seen it kill off its takeover negotiations with Ares Management and Boe Pah...Read more

Investment insights

Business warned on COVID vaccine policy backlash

Businesses that pressure staff into getting a COVID-19 vaccine are being warned they could face discrimination, harassment, bullying and employment abuse claims, according to an industry expert. ...Read more

Investment insights

5-step guide to teaching kids about money

It’s never too early to start teaching kids about money and how to manage it. With the added challenges associated with COVID, it’s never been more important either! ...Read more

Investment insights

Why ethical investing is at a tipping point

Best-selling author Malcolm Gladwell said it best: “Look at the world around you. It may seem like an immovable, implacable place. It is not. With the slightest push – in just the right place – ...Read more

Investment insights

Ares withdraws from AMP bid as wealth manager’s financial results spell trouble

The bad news keeps rolling in for AMP, with the wealth manager reporting a significant drop in profit as its US bidder, Ares Management Corp, announces that it is backing out. ...Read more

Investment insights

‘RBA not responsible for asset prices’, governor says

RBA governor Philip Lowe has said that the Reserve Bank is not responsible for targeting asset prices, after questions were raised about the creation of raging bull markets against the backdrop of l...Read more

Investment insights

Retailers report strong HY21, with Super Retail set to refund JobKeeper

Certain Australian retailers are flourishing despite the government-mandated temporary store closures in 2020, with JB Hi-Fi reporting good sales growth and Super Retail Group pledging to hand back $1...Read more