Invest
Treasury expects 10% unemployment
Speaking at Parliament House today, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has outlined just how much of a drag COVID-19 could have on the nation’s workforce.
Treasury expects 10% unemployment
Speaking at Parliament House today, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has outlined just how much of a drag COVID-19 could have on the nation’s workforce.
He conceded that “the economic shock facing the global economy from the coronavirus is far more significant than what was seen during the global financial crisis over a decade ago”.
The Treasury’s newest calculations have led it to expect the unemployment rate to rise to 10 per cent in the June quarter, from 5.1 per cent in the most recent data.
He also conceded that the unemployment percentage hike is likely to last as long as health restrictions remain in place.
According to Mr Frydenberg, in the absence of the $130 billion JobKeeper payment, which was approved by Parliament last week, Treasury has also estimated that the unemployment rate would be five percentage points higher – peaking around 15 per cent.
“The JobKeeper package is providing an economic lifeline to millions of Australians,” Mr Frydenberg said.
“At $130 billion, it’s a wage subsidy the size, scale and scope of which Australia has never seen before.”
“The unemployment rise is very concerning, but it’s also a reflection of the economic challenges we face.”
“Our ultimate focus is to keep people working,” the Treasurer acknowledged.
He highlighted that more than 800,000 businesses have already registered for the JobKeeper payment, “which will allow the economy to recover more quickly once we are through to the other side of the crisis”.
More to come.
RELATED ARTICLES
-
Australia’s spending surprise raises the odds of a February rate move — here’s how to protect margin and momentum
-
Australia’s inflation cools to 3.4% — why the RBA’s next move still isn’t a lay‑up for business
-
Inflation cools to 3.4% — but the RBA’s reaction function keeps businesses on a knife-edge
About the author
About the author
Economy
Australia’s spending surprise raises the odds of a February rate move — here’s how to protect margin and momentum
Household outlays are running hotter than economists expected, with the latest ABS readings showing broad-based gains across services and goods. That resilience is exactly the kind of demand impulse ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s inflation cools to 3.4% — why the RBA’s next move still isn’t a lay‑up for business
Headline inflation easing is good optics; balance sheets feel something different. With year‑on‑year CPI down to 3.4% in November from 3.8%, hopes for rate relief are rising — but policymakers remain ...Read more
Economy
Inflation cools to 3.4% — but the RBA’s reaction function keeps businesses on a knife-edge
Australia’s headline CPI edged down to 3.4% year-on-year in November, from 3.8%, easing immediate pressure but not eliminating the risk of further tightening. With services inflation sticky and ...Read more
Economy
Higher-for-longer, not higher forever: How Australia’s inflation ‘surprise’ is rewriting CFO playbooks for 2026
Australia’s latest inflation pulse eased but didn’t budge bank outlooks: near‑term rate cuts are still a long shot, with some houses flagging upside risk. That steadier‑for‑longer cash rate is pushing ...Read more
Economy
Australia's inflation illusion: the real challenge lies in pricing power and productivity
Headline inflation has cooled to 3.4% year-on-year, but the Reserve Bank’s caution—and a still‑hot housing backdrop—mean the rate threat hasn’t left the room. For boards, the next few quarters are ...Read more
Economy
When house prices lift, tills ring: A case study in turning Australia’s wealth effect into growth
Australia’s latest upswing in household wealth, anchored by higher dwelling values, is more than a feel‑good statistic—it is a profit and planning signal. The ABS notes property’s centrality to ...Read more
Economy
RBA's hawkish stance reflects inflation concerns, State Street economist comments
In a recent statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled a hawkish stance on interest rates, drawing insights from financial experts about the implications for Australia's economic ...Read more
Economy
Navigating the inflation maze: How CFOs can outsmart economic hurdles in Australia
Fresh inflation data have cooled expectations of near-term rate cuts in Australia, intensifying pressure on margins, capital allocation and demand. Rather than wait for monetary relief that may not ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s spending surprise raises the odds of a February rate move — here’s how to protect margin and momentum
Household outlays are running hotter than economists expected, with the latest ABS readings showing broad-based gains across services and goods. That resilience is exactly the kind of demand impulse ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s inflation cools to 3.4% — why the RBA’s next move still isn’t a lay‑up for business
Headline inflation easing is good optics; balance sheets feel something different. With year‑on‑year CPI down to 3.4% in November from 3.8%, hopes for rate relief are rising — but policymakers remain ...Read more
Economy
Inflation cools to 3.4% — but the RBA’s reaction function keeps businesses on a knife-edge
Australia’s headline CPI edged down to 3.4% year-on-year in November, from 3.8%, easing immediate pressure but not eliminating the risk of further tightening. With services inflation sticky and ...Read more
Economy
Higher-for-longer, not higher forever: How Australia’s inflation ‘surprise’ is rewriting CFO playbooks for 2026
Australia’s latest inflation pulse eased but didn’t budge bank outlooks: near‑term rate cuts are still a long shot, with some houses flagging upside risk. That steadier‑for‑longer cash rate is pushing ...Read more
Economy
Australia's inflation illusion: the real challenge lies in pricing power and productivity
Headline inflation has cooled to 3.4% year-on-year, but the Reserve Bank’s caution—and a still‑hot housing backdrop—mean the rate threat hasn’t left the room. For boards, the next few quarters are ...Read more
Economy
When house prices lift, tills ring: A case study in turning Australia’s wealth effect into growth
Australia’s latest upswing in household wealth, anchored by higher dwelling values, is more than a feel‑good statistic—it is a profit and planning signal. The ABS notes property’s centrality to ...Read more
Economy
RBA's hawkish stance reflects inflation concerns, State Street economist comments
In a recent statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled a hawkish stance on interest rates, drawing insights from financial experts about the implications for Australia's economic ...Read more
Economy
Navigating the inflation maze: How CFOs can outsmart economic hurdles in Australia
Fresh inflation data have cooled expectations of near-term rate cuts in Australia, intensifying pressure on margins, capital allocation and demand. Rather than wait for monetary relief that may not ...Read more
