Invest
Treasury expects 10% unemployment
Speaking at Parliament House today, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has outlined just how much of a drag COVID-19 could have on the nation’s workforce.
Treasury expects 10% unemployment
Speaking at Parliament House today, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has outlined just how much of a drag COVID-19 could have on the nation’s workforce.

He conceded that “the economic shock facing the global economy from the coronavirus is far more significant than what was seen during the global financial crisis over a decade ago”.
The Treasury’s newest calculations have led it to expect the unemployment rate to rise to 10 per cent in the June quarter, from 5.1 per cent in the most recent data.
He also conceded that the unemployment percentage hike is likely to last as long as health restrictions remain in place.
According to Mr Frydenberg, in the absence of the $130 billion JobKeeper payment, which was approved by Parliament last week, Treasury has also estimated that the unemployment rate would be five percentage points higher – peaking around 15 per cent.

“The JobKeeper package is providing an economic lifeline to millions of Australians,” Mr Frydenberg said.
“At $130 billion, it’s a wage subsidy the size, scale and scope of which Australia has never seen before.”
“The unemployment rise is very concerning, but it’s also a reflection of the economic challenges we face.”
“Our ultimate focus is to keep people working,” the Treasurer acknowledged.
He highlighted that more than 800,000 businesses have already registered for the JobKeeper payment, “which will allow the economy to recover more quickly once we are through to the other side of the crisis”.
More to come.
About the author

About the author


Economy
Australia's June quarter GDP growth driven by consumer and government spending
Australia's economy has shown unexpected resilience in the June 2025 quarter, with household and government consumption driving growth despite a significant decline in public investmentRead more

Economy
Australia's GDP surprise is real but operators should heed the growth mix warning light
Australia’s June-quarter growth beat expectations on the strength of household consumption and government spending, even as public investment sagged. The upside surprise signals resilience, but the ...Read more

Economy
Households carried the quarter: what Australia’s upside GDP surprise means for strategy now
Australia’s economy expanded faster than expected in the June 2025 quarter, with GDP up 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 1.8 per cent year-on-year — the strongest pace in two years. The kicker ...Read more

Economy
Inflation dynamics in Australia: Electricity subsidies and labour market in focus
In a recent economic analysis, experts from State Street have highlighted significant developments in Australia's inflation landscape, attributing the changes primarily to the withdrawal of ...Read more

Economy
Australia's economic growth driven by consumer and government spending: A closer look at the June quarter
Australia's economy has delivered a surprising performance for the June 2025 quarter, surpassing expectations with a growth rate of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year. This unexpected ...Read more

Economy
Australian and Korean leaders meet to unlock billions in new trade opportunities
In a significant effort to bolster economic ties and explore new avenues for investment, Australian and Korean leaders, alongside business executives and government officials, are gathering in Seoul ...Read more

Economy
Australia’s growth beat is real — but it’s the wrong kind for capacity
Australia’s economy outpaced forecasts in the June quarter as households opened wallets and government spending did the heavy lifting, even as public investment sagged. The signal for boardrooms: ...Read more

Economy
Australia’s growth is back—but it’s the wrong kind of strong
GDP surprised on the upside in the June quarter, powered by households and government outlays even as public investment slumped. The Reserve Bank stayed hawkish, signalling that sticky services ...Read more

Economy
Australia's June quarter GDP growth driven by consumer and government spending
Australia's economy has shown unexpected resilience in the June 2025 quarter, with household and government consumption driving growth despite a significant decline in public investmentRead more

Economy
Australia's GDP surprise is real but operators should heed the growth mix warning light
Australia’s June-quarter growth beat expectations on the strength of household consumption and government spending, even as public investment sagged. The upside surprise signals resilience, but the ...Read more

Economy
Households carried the quarter: what Australia’s upside GDP surprise means for strategy now
Australia’s economy expanded faster than expected in the June 2025 quarter, with GDP up 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 1.8 per cent year-on-year — the strongest pace in two years. The kicker ...Read more

Economy
Inflation dynamics in Australia: Electricity subsidies and labour market in focus
In a recent economic analysis, experts from State Street have highlighted significant developments in Australia's inflation landscape, attributing the changes primarily to the withdrawal of ...Read more

Economy
Australia's economic growth driven by consumer and government spending: A closer look at the June quarter
Australia's economy has delivered a surprising performance for the June 2025 quarter, surpassing expectations with a growth rate of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year. This unexpected ...Read more

Economy
Australian and Korean leaders meet to unlock billions in new trade opportunities
In a significant effort to bolster economic ties and explore new avenues for investment, Australian and Korean leaders, alongside business executives and government officials, are gathering in Seoul ...Read more

Economy
Australia’s growth beat is real — but it’s the wrong kind for capacity
Australia’s economy outpaced forecasts in the June quarter as households opened wallets and government spending did the heavy lifting, even as public investment sagged. The signal for boardrooms: ...Read more

Economy
Australia’s growth is back—but it’s the wrong kind of strong
GDP surprised on the upside in the June quarter, powered by households and government outlays even as public investment slumped. The Reserve Bank stayed hawkish, signalling that sticky services ...Read more