Invest
The economic recovery could be slower than first anticipated
The Reserve Bank of Australia has warned that the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic remains uncertain, with its latest figures being worse than those predicted three months earlier.
The economic recovery could be slower than first anticipated
The Reserve Bank of Australia has warned that the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic remains uncertain, with its latest figures being worse than those predicted three months earlier.
In its monthly monetary policy update, RBA assistant governor Luci Ellis outlined three scenarios that the economy could take depending on how quickly the virus is contained and restrictions lifted.
All three scenarios – baseline, an upside and a downside – will see Australia’s unemployment rise and its GDP fall, but the levels change based on the health outcome.
The three scenarios all assume international borders will remain closed and travel will be restricted until the middle of next year.
The RBA’s new baseline scenario isn’t what one would normally consider optimistic, with unemployment expected to soar to almost 10 per cent by the end of the year, a figure that would be unthinkable at the start of the year.
“The situation in Victoria will reduce growth in the September quarter and push out the recovery beyond that,” said Ms Ellis. “That said, activity is expected to continue to recover in much of the country over the rest of this year and next. The recovery is expected to be slow and uneven, and GDP will probably take several years to return to the trend path expected prior to the virus outbreak.”
This will also see the June 2021 growth forecast be reduced by 4 per cent from a 7 per cent previously forecasted.
Business investment is also expected to be worse than originally forecasted, falling 17 per cent this year, with the May forecast suggesting a 13 per cent reduction.
The RBA continues to rely on a vaccine or a medical breakthrough to achieve its upside scenario as it would see the national economy bounce back harder than first predicted.
“An effective vaccine would take a bit longer to be distributed, so it would mainly affect outcomes next year and the year after. But it could also result in a stronger recovery than we have assumed even in the upside scenario presented here. A worse outcome than our downside could be conceivable if the virus cannot be contained and further waves of infection occur around the world for some years yet,” Ms Ellis said.
“If the lifting of restrictions is delayed, the restrictions need to be reimposed or household and business confidence remains low, the outcomes would be even more challenging than those in the baseline scenario,” reads the RBA’s May statement on monetary policy. “For this scenario, we assume that many restrictions remain in place until closer to the end of 2020 and international travel restrictions are in place well into next year.”
The upside scenario also assumes that infection rates fall quickly and stay low. The pace of decline in case numbers is assumed to be a bit faster than in the baseline, so the restrictions are eased a bit faster. This would be similar to the experience of some of the smaller states in recent months.
The RBA also predicted that the economy could follow Victoria’s stage 4 lockdowns, with its downside prediction noting further restrictions and barriers to an economic recovery.
“Australia itself faces a series of outbreaks and periods of stage 3 or 4 restrictions in some states. The result is further near-term weakness in activity. Confidence is damaged and so the recovery is much slower as well. The extent of the damage would depend on how widespread and long-lasting renewed restrictions need to be to get control over the spread of the virus,” Ms Ellis said.
About the author
About the author
Economy
CPI data another piece in RBA's interest rate decision puzzle, says REIA
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that inflation rose 3.4% in the 12 months to February 2024, unchanged from the previous two months, ...Read more
Economy
Including passive job seekers in unemployment measure doesn't impact economic cycle view, study finds
New research from e61 Institute has found that while current unemployment measures may not capture all job seekers, broader definitions that include passive job searchers do not provide better ...Read more
Economy
Survey reveals heightened job security concerns among IT workers in 2024
A recent survey conducted by Authority Hacker has revealed that 89.66% of IT workers in the United States have increased concerns about job loss in 2024. Read more
Economy
Australian founders adapt to the challenging fundraising environment with optimism and strategic shifts
The landscape for start-up funding in Australia has been increasingly challenging, but this has not dampened the spirit of the country's entrepreneurs. Read more
Economy
Signs point to possible US economic 'soft landing' in ClearBridge analysis
The US economy may be steering towards a 'soft landing' despite mixed signals from the stock market, according to a recent analysis by ClearBridge Investments. Read more
Economy
Alternative fund managers predict capital raising surge in 2024
Alternative investment fund managers are predicting a sizable increase in capital raising efforts in 2024, according to a global study by Ocorian, a leading alternative investment fund administratorRead more
Economy
Understanding the economic indicators that affect your earnings
The landscape of personal finance is profoundly influenced by broader economic trends and indicators. Read more
Economy
Navigate market turbulence with expert advice: no crystal ball needed
In an era fraught with investment market uncertainties, from fluctuating interest rates to geopolitical strife, seasoned market experts are guiding investors through the mire, offering sage advice on ...Read more
Economy
CPI data another piece in RBA's interest rate decision puzzle, says REIA
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that inflation rose 3.4% in the 12 months to February 2024, unchanged from the previous two months, ...Read more
Economy
Including passive job seekers in unemployment measure doesn't impact economic cycle view, study finds
New research from e61 Institute has found that while current unemployment measures may not capture all job seekers, broader definitions that include passive job searchers do not provide better ...Read more
Economy
Survey reveals heightened job security concerns among IT workers in 2024
A recent survey conducted by Authority Hacker has revealed that 89.66% of IT workers in the United States have increased concerns about job loss in 2024. Read more
Economy
Australian founders adapt to the challenging fundraising environment with optimism and strategic shifts
The landscape for start-up funding in Australia has been increasingly challenging, but this has not dampened the spirit of the country's entrepreneurs. Read more
Economy
Signs point to possible US economic 'soft landing' in ClearBridge analysis
The US economy may be steering towards a 'soft landing' despite mixed signals from the stock market, according to a recent analysis by ClearBridge Investments. Read more
Economy
Alternative fund managers predict capital raising surge in 2024
Alternative investment fund managers are predicting a sizable increase in capital raising efforts in 2024, according to a global study by Ocorian, a leading alternative investment fund administratorRead more
Economy
Understanding the economic indicators that affect your earnings
The landscape of personal finance is profoundly influenced by broader economic trends and indicators. Read more
Economy
Navigate market turbulence with expert advice: no crystal ball needed
In an era fraught with investment market uncertainties, from fluctuating interest rates to geopolitical strife, seasoned market experts are guiding investors through the mire, offering sage advice on ...Read more