Signs point to possible US economic 'soft landing' in ClearBridge analysis

By Newsdesk

February 12 2024
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The US economy may be steering towards a 'soft landing' despite mixed signals from the stock market, according to a recent analysis by ClearBridge Investments.

Signs point to possible US economic 'soft landing' in ClearBridge analysis

Their 'Anatomy of a Recession' report has found that while certain economic indicators are positive, equities may not follow suit due to various concerns, warranting cautious optimism among investors.

Jeffrey Schulze, Director and Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, provided insights into the complex relationship between the economy and the stock market. "It is important for investors to keep in mind that the stock market is not the economy, and a soft landing appears to already be priced into equity markets," Schulze noted.

As the labour market continues to demonstrate resilience, Schulze pointed out that the recent layoffs are more indicative of seasonal trends rather than economic decline. "The labour market does not show many signs of slowing," he said. "Recent layoff announcements are not surprising, as this time of year typically sees the largest amount of workforce reductions."

Despite signs that could be interpreted as optimistic, ClearBridge remains cautious. "While we are incrementally more optimistic on the economy than we were at year end, we remain cautious on equities due to earnings and valuation concerns," Schulze added.

Schulze also highlighted the significance of jobless claims as an indicator to watch. "Although jobless claims have been on the rise recently, they are coming back from a historically low level and would need to rise meaningfully in order to cross back into red or recessionary territory," he explained.

With respect to equity markets, the analysis maintains a guarded stance. Schulze pointed out that the S&P 500 Index's current valuations may leave little room for errors or unforeseen market challenges. "The S&P 500 Index is trading at 19.8x next-12-month earnings expectations, well above historical averages," he remarked.

Additionally, as the reporting season progresses, Schulze emphasized that the market's reception to corporate performances shows a low tolerance for underperformance. "Guidance from several bellwethers has been disappointing and accompanied by substantial moves lower for the stocks," he observed. This suggests that the market has high expectations, which are not being met when companies fail to hit sales and earnings targets.

ClearBridge's analysis suggests that while the economy might be heading towards a soft landing, the outlook for equities remains uncertain. Caution, coupled with a focus on quality, is advised by Schulze given the complex market dynamics currently at play.

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