Invest
Pre-Christmas retail expected to match 2020 highs
Experts say that pent-up demand will properly match pre-Christmas retail spend to $58.8 billion.
Pre-Christmas retail expected to match 2020 highs
Experts say that pent-up demand will properly match pre-Christmas retail spend to $58.8 billion.
With lockdowns on the wane, expectations are high that consumers will spend to make up for lost time.
According to the Australian Retailer Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan, overall spending for pre-Christmas retail is expected to come in at around $58.8 billion.
While this figure is more or less in line with pre-Christmas retail spending in 2021, it still represents an 11.3 per cent increase on pre-pandemic conditions.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said that the company’s forecast reveals a country on the move, and one with all the usual signs of pent-up demand.
“No one believed that spending this coming Christmas could match the highs of last year, but as the population emerges from the most punishing crisis in a hundred years, shoppers are looking to reward themselves and their families,” she said.
However, partially as a consequence of the pandemic, Ms Levine noted that a greater proportion of this seasonal spending is going to be online.
“The COVID five-year digital acceleration means many more Australians are shopping online, so this Christmas we will see much more of a mix between in-store and online shopping,” she said.
ARA CEO Paul Zahra said that the positive trend in spending was a positive sign for retailers and small businesses battered by the conditions and restrictions of the pandemic.
“There’s a lot of Christmas cheer in these numbers, with the overall trend looking positive, and that is great news for small businesses and discretionary retailers who have suffered through some of the longest lockdowns in the world this year,” he said.
Roy Morgan’s latest dataset also put a price on the economic impact of recent lockdowns, estimating that it suppressed as much as $131 million in retail trade per day.
“Unsurprisingly, these impacts have been most keenly felt in NSW and Victoria, at $40.4 million and $55.2 million per day, respectively,” Mr Zahra noted.
“These impacts will continue to weigh on annual growth in retail trade and will be compounded by the reduction in government stimulus payments and the end of ‘mortgage holidays’ for tens of thousands of Australians in the coming months.”
While the retail sector is cycling off the back of a bumper Christmas last year, Mr Zahra said that this latest release of pent-up consumer demand couldn’t have come at a better time.
“The Christmas trading period is critical, as it’s the time when most discretionary retailers make up to two-thirds of their profits for the year,” he added.
Breaking the numbers by state, Roy Morgan expects retail trade to grow the most in Victoria, Tasmania and the ACT. However, with NSW and WA largely flat and Queensland, SA and NT expected to contract, 2021’s sum total here isn’t all that different to 2020’s.
For those who still need to start on their Christmas shopping, Mr Zahra said that haste may be a virtue.
“With elevated online sales, suppressed shopping demand, global supply chain disruptions and local delivery issues, the key message to consumers for this Christmas [is] ‘tis the season to shop early,” he said.
RELATED ARTICLES
About the author
About the author
Economy
RBA's hawkish stance reflects inflation concerns, State Street economist comments
In a recent statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled a hawkish stance on interest rates, drawing insights from financial experts about the implications for Australia's economic ...Read more
Economy
Navigating the inflation maze: How CFOs can outsmart economic hurdles in Australia
Fresh inflation data have cooled expectations of near-term rate cuts in Australia, intensifying pressure on margins, capital allocation and demand. Rather than wait for monetary relief that may not ...Read more
Economy
Inflation concerns rise as Australia's CPI climbs to 3.8% in October
Australia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures have sent ripples through the economy, with headline inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-on-year in October, up from 3.6% in September. The data, ...Read more
Economy
October CPI results pose challenges for RBA’s monetary policy stance
In a surprising turn of events, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has raised eyebrows among economists and market strategists, revealing stronger-than-expected inflationary pressures in ...Read more
Economy
Global deal activity declines by 6% amid economic uncertainty, reports GlobalData
In a year characterised by economic turbulence and evolving market conditions, global deal activity has witnessed a notable downturn during the first ten months of 2025. According to GlobalData, a ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s softening labour market puts another RBA cut in play — here’s what business should do now
A four-year high in unemployment has revived expectations the Reserve Bank could deliver another rate cut as soon as November. With quarterly GDP growth running at 0.6 per cent and annual growth at ...Read more
Economy
Rising CPI reinforces RBA’s stance as rate cut expectations remain: State Street
State Street Global Advisors says the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to hold its current policy outlook following the release of September quarter inflation data, which showed an unexpected ...Read more
Economy
NSW SES boosts tsunami preparedness ahead of World Tsunami Awareness Day
As World Tsunami Awareness Day approaches on 5 November, the New South Wales State Emergency Service (NSW SES) is ramping up efforts to enhance tsunami preparedness along the east coastRead more
Economy
RBA's hawkish stance reflects inflation concerns, State Street economist comments
In a recent statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled a hawkish stance on interest rates, drawing insights from financial experts about the implications for Australia's economic ...Read more
Economy
Navigating the inflation maze: How CFOs can outsmart economic hurdles in Australia
Fresh inflation data have cooled expectations of near-term rate cuts in Australia, intensifying pressure on margins, capital allocation and demand. Rather than wait for monetary relief that may not ...Read more
Economy
Inflation concerns rise as Australia's CPI climbs to 3.8% in October
Australia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures have sent ripples through the economy, with headline inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-on-year in October, up from 3.6% in September. The data, ...Read more
Economy
October CPI results pose challenges for RBA’s monetary policy stance
In a surprising turn of events, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has raised eyebrows among economists and market strategists, revealing stronger-than-expected inflationary pressures in ...Read more
Economy
Global deal activity declines by 6% amid economic uncertainty, reports GlobalData
In a year characterised by economic turbulence and evolving market conditions, global deal activity has witnessed a notable downturn during the first ten months of 2025. According to GlobalData, a ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s softening labour market puts another RBA cut in play — here’s what business should do now
A four-year high in unemployment has revived expectations the Reserve Bank could deliver another rate cut as soon as November. With quarterly GDP growth running at 0.6 per cent and annual growth at ...Read more
Economy
Rising CPI reinforces RBA’s stance as rate cut expectations remain: State Street
State Street Global Advisors says the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to hold its current policy outlook following the release of September quarter inflation data, which showed an unexpected ...Read more
Economy
NSW SES boosts tsunami preparedness ahead of World Tsunami Awareness Day
As World Tsunami Awareness Day approaches on 5 November, the New South Wales State Emergency Service (NSW SES) is ramping up efforts to enhance tsunami preparedness along the east coastRead more
