OPEC delays crucial meeting amidst challenging negotiations and global economic concerns

By Newsdesk

November 24 2023
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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has postponed an important meeting scheduled for the weekend, suggesting potential discord among members, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.

The delay, reportedly due to troubles in discussions between Saudi and African members, indicates that the proposed additional cut of 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) might not be enough to sustainably boost oil prices.

The decision to hold off the meeting emerges from indications that the market did not rally as expected on news that Saudi Arabia may double its production reductions. Ozkardeskaya highlights, "Saudi likely sensed in this week’s poor price action - ‘buy the fact that Saudi will double its production cuts’ action - that 1mbpd extra cut wouldn’t send the oil prices higher, sustainably." It appears the nation is now seeking more substantial commitments from its fellow OPEC members, a process that seems to be fraught with difficulty.

Historically, Saudi Arabia has played the role of 'swing producer,' capable of balancing the global oil markets by adjusting its production levels to stabilize prices. However, Ozkardeskaya notes a change that occurred in the 1980s where "Saudi Arabia has shifted its strategy and opted for a market share approach," a tactic that dramatically increased production and led to an oversupply in the global oil market.

The current situation sees the American crude barrel price waver, dropping to $73.50 per barrel then recovering to $76, while Brent crude fell below $80 per barrel before rebounding. These market movements come amidst broader concerns over a global slowdown, overshadowing fears of supply restrictions.

The article also sheds light on other economic projections, pointing to Germany's slashed growth forecasts for 2024 due to constitutional issues around government spending, and the UK's downgraded estimates, despite tax relief measures announced by Jeremy Hunt. For the UK, even with the alluring "100% tax relief – on companies’ capital spending," the overall tax burden is expected to increase, reaching a high not seen since the post-World War II era.

Adding to economic pressures, disinflation appears to be on the horizon in the US, making this year's Thanksgiving more affordable. Adobe Analytics anticipates a 5.4% increase in Thanksgiving shopping, a figure that remarkably disregards a 12% growth adjusted for online deflation. Yet, this consumer spending is not entirely positive, as it partly stems from savings and debt, hinting at sustainability issues.

As Thanksgiving approaches, the US sees a drop in the costs of traditional holiday items, providing some relief to consumers. However, traders should brace for potentially erratic markets due to thin trading volumes typical of the holiday period.

In conclusion, Ozkardeskaya warns of the potential volatility in trading, "Thanksgiving is one of the calmest trading days of the year. Expect thin trading volumes and higher volatility." The intersecting narratives of OPEC negotiations, nationwide tax policies, and consumer spending patterns weave a complex picture of the global economic environment heading into the year's end.

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