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On this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja Garaca Djurdjevic and three experts discuss the ups and downs of online auctions, the power of activist short-sellers, and tax time 2021.

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Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, chats about online auctions and why they resemble “a bad Zoom meeting”, the growing resilience of the property market, and how Sydney’s lengthy lockdown could shake things up.

RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, delves into short selling – the original trade that sent GameStop stock soaring – and how activist short-sellers are impacting markets.

And lastly, tax and super guru Timothy Munro talks about those early tax lodgers and possible ramifications, as well as detailing the temporary shortcut method, which you may be able to use this tax time.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured on the next episode.

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Experts predict economy won’t recover until 2022

By Cameron Micallef

June 02 2020
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Invest

Experts predict economy won’t recover until 2022

By Cameron Micallef
June 02 2020

Around 85 per cent of experts and economists do not believe the economic recovery will be V shaped, with it taking at least two years to fully recuperate losses, a survey has revealed.

Experts predict economy won’t recover until 2022

By Cameron Micallef

June 02 2020
Share

The latest RBA Cash Rate Survey has showed all 43 Australian experts and economists expects the Reserve Bank to hold the cash rate at 0.25 per cent at its meeting on Tuesday.

While most are predicting that the economy will slowly recover, most experts believe that interest rates will remain on hold this afternoon.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver stated the RBA has likely reached its floor and does not predict a move up for at least three years.

“The cash rate is already at the RBA’s effective lower bound and governor Lowe has reiterated that negative interest rates are ‘extraordinarily unlikely’ so, rates won’t be cut,” Dr Oliver said.

“But with the economy taking a big hit from the coronavirus shutdown, economic activity has fallen well below potential and this will take a long time to fully reverse which means high unemployment and low inflation for several years to come so the RBA can’t raise rates.”

However, it is not all bad news for the Australian economy with more than one-third of the experts (37 per cent or 14 of the 38 that weighed in) expect Australia to have its first quarter of GDP growth in the third quarter of the year.

Mark Crosby, applied macroeconomist at Monash University, said Q3 GDP growth will be more about how bad the preceding quarters turn out.

“If growth in Q3 2020 was measured against any quarter in 2019 it would be negative,” Mr Crosby said.

“In other words, it’s growth but nowhere near a reversion towards trend in Q3, not the end of recession (other than in definition) and not the end of rising unemployment.”

Nearly half of the experts who were quizzed on the hospitality industry (47 per cent, or 15 out of 31) said they expect restaurants and bars will not operating at full capacity and without social distancing restrictions until 2021.

Less than a third (10 or 31 per cent) expect restaurants and bars to return to normal conditions this year.

Meanwhile more than two-thirds of the experts who weighed in on stamp duty (69 per cent or 24 out of 35) suspect the tax will be axed within the next 18 months, as the government looks to support the economy post-COVID-19, with most (21) expecting the change in 2021.

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About the author

Cameron Micallef

Cameron is a journalist for Momentum Media's nestegg and Smart Property Investment. He enjoys giving Aussies practical financial tips and tricks to help grow their wealth and achieve financial independence. As a self-confessed finance nerd, Cameron enjoys chatting with industry experts and commentators to leverage their insights to grow your portfolio.

About the author

Cameron Micallef

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