Invest
Economy to recover from weakest year since WWII
The global economy is expected to recover in 2021 following the weakest year since World War II, with fiscal and monetary policy continuing to support world economies, a big four bank has forecasted.
Economy to recover from weakest year since WWII
The global economy is expected to recover in 2021 following the weakest year since World War II, with fiscal and monetary policy continuing to support world economies, a big four bank has forecasted.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (CBA) chief economist Stephen Halmarick has outlined his economic predictions for 2021, with global growth forecasted at 5.2 per cent off the back of strong growth in the US and China.
“In the US, there remains a number of political risks ahead. But, assuming Joe Biden is sworn in as the 46th President of the United States on 20 January 2021, we expect him to focus on a few key policy priorities that should support the US economy throughout 2021 and beyond,” Mr Halmarick said.
The economist also highlighted how despite economic falls in Australia, a win on the health front so far has led to a less severe downturn than first predicted.
“Australia has done a better job than just about any other nation in controlling the spread of the virus,” Mr Halmarick said.
“This, combined with fiscal and monetary policy support being provided to the economy, and the role played by the Australian banking system, means the economic impact of COVID 19 has been less severe in Australia than many other nations, and less severe than initially expected.
“To be sure, Australia’s 30-year run without a recession has come to an end, and the human toll of the sharp rise in the unemployment rate has been very real. But, the outlook for Australia is improving.”
Expect rates to be lower for longer
Despite a stronger economy predicted in 2021, Mr Halmarick said the consequences of the current pandemic are likely to have an impact on monetary policy in the medium-term.
“The recession, the rise in the unemployment rate, the global economic environment, and the expectation that inflation will remain below the 2 to 3 per cent target range for years, has seen monetary policy in Australia enter unconventional space for the very first time,” he said.
He pointed out the cash rate target is expected to remain at just 0.1 per cent for at least three years. The RBA is funding the banking system for three years at 0.1 per cent, and the RBA is targeting the three-year Commonwealth bond yield at 0.1 per cent.
In addition, the RBA is now engaged in a quantitative easing (QE) program and will buy $100 billion of Commonwealth and state government bonds over the six months to April 2021.
“Having entered the world of unconventional monetary policy, it is going to be a long time before the RBA can retreat from providing significant support to the economy,” he said.
RELATED ARTICLES
About the author
About the author
Economy
RBA's interest rate hike impacts Australian employment landscape
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, raising the cash rate to 3.85%. This move, aimed at controlling inflation, has elicited responses from ...Read more
Economy
RBA’s latest rate hike sparks debate over economic impact
In a surprising move, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased the cash rate, signalling a significant shift in its monetary policy approach. This decision comes amid a backdrop of unexpected ...Read more
Economy
When inflation reopens the rate door: A broker-sector case study in defending margins, clients and share
Australia’s latest trimmed-mean inflation reading at 3.3% has revived the prospect of another Reserve Bank move and put lenders, brokers and borrowers back on a tightening footing. This case study ...Read more
Economy
Inflation rise dampens hopes for interest rate cuts as employment dynamics shift
In a development that has dashed hopes for an interest rate cut, Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has surged back to 3.8%, erasing the progress made since October. This unexpected rise in ...Read more
Economy
Inflation surge poses challenges for small businesses and consumers
The latest inflation figures have sparked concern among Australian businesses and consumers alike, with the rising costs expected to influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) upcoming interest ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s spending surprise raises the odds of a February rate move — here’s how to protect margin and momentum
Household outlays are running hotter than economists expected, with the latest ABS readings showing broad-based gains across services and goods. That resilience is exactly the kind of demand impulse ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s inflation cools to 3.4% — why the RBA’s next move still isn’t a lay‑up for business
Headline inflation easing is good optics; balance sheets feel something different. With year‑on‑year CPI down to 3.4% in November from 3.8%, hopes for rate relief are rising — but policymakers remain ...Read more
Economy
Inflation cools to 3.4% — but the RBA’s reaction function keeps businesses on a knife-edge
Australia’s headline CPI edged down to 3.4% year-on-year in November, from 3.8%, easing immediate pressure but not eliminating the risk of further tightening. With services inflation sticky and ...Read more
Economy
RBA's interest rate hike impacts Australian employment landscape
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, raising the cash rate to 3.85%. This move, aimed at controlling inflation, has elicited responses from ...Read more
Economy
RBA’s latest rate hike sparks debate over economic impact
In a surprising move, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased the cash rate, signalling a significant shift in its monetary policy approach. This decision comes amid a backdrop of unexpected ...Read more
Economy
When inflation reopens the rate door: A broker-sector case study in defending margins, clients and share
Australia’s latest trimmed-mean inflation reading at 3.3% has revived the prospect of another Reserve Bank move and put lenders, brokers and borrowers back on a tightening footing. This case study ...Read more
Economy
Inflation rise dampens hopes for interest rate cuts as employment dynamics shift
In a development that has dashed hopes for an interest rate cut, Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has surged back to 3.8%, erasing the progress made since October. This unexpected rise in ...Read more
Economy
Inflation surge poses challenges for small businesses and consumers
The latest inflation figures have sparked concern among Australian businesses and consumers alike, with the rising costs expected to influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) upcoming interest ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s spending surprise raises the odds of a February rate move — here’s how to protect margin and momentum
Household outlays are running hotter than economists expected, with the latest ABS readings showing broad-based gains across services and goods. That resilience is exactly the kind of demand impulse ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s inflation cools to 3.4% — why the RBA’s next move still isn’t a lay‑up for business
Headline inflation easing is good optics; balance sheets feel something different. With year‑on‑year CPI down to 3.4% in November from 3.8%, hopes for rate relief are rising — but policymakers remain ...Read more
Economy
Inflation cools to 3.4% — but the RBA’s reaction function keeps businesses on a knife-edge
Australia’s headline CPI edged down to 3.4% year-on-year in November, from 3.8%, easing immediate pressure but not eliminating the risk of further tightening. With services inflation sticky and ...Read more
