Invest
Australians predict record-low growth
Australians are expecting a lower inflation rate for longer, with a national survey showing the country is predicting a record-low inflation rate.
Australians predict record-low growth
Australians are expecting a lower inflation rate for longer, with a national survey showing the country is predicting a record-low inflation rate.
In June, Australians expected inflation of 3.2 per cent annually over the next two years. This result signified a new record low for the index – down 0.1 per cent on May and a significant 0.8 percentage points on the pre-COVID period of February 2020.
Inflation expectations have declined around the nation; however, the magnitude of the drop has been far larger in some places than others – notably Melbourne where inflation expectations have dropped 0.9 per cent points since February to only 2.8 per cent in June.
The biggest decline has been in Tasmania, down from 4.9 per cent in February to 2.9 per cent in June, a drop of 2 per cent points as Hobart’s formerly hot housing market has cooled during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the rapid decline in inflation expectations in recent months is a sign of ongoing economic weakness as Australia experiences its first recession for three decades.
The sharpest declines have been in Melbourne and Tasmania, she explained, noting that the Victorian capital has experienced a spike in new cases of COVID-19 since mid-June, and in response, restrictions have been tightened progressively, with the Melbourne metropolitan area returning to a stage 3 lockdown this week.
The renewed restrictions will place a great deal of pressure on businesses that have already endured more than three months of turnover well below normal levels.
“The surge in new cases in Melbourne has also led to the Tasmanian government extending its state of emergency until the end of August – Tasmania’s economic dependence on Victorian businesses and tourists is larger than for any of the other mainland states,” Ms Levine said.
“The island border remains closed to visitors until at least late July.”
States that are surviving the COVID-19 pandemic are seeing stronger inflation expectations, the research also showed.
Adelaide experienced the least change, with inflation expectations of 3.7 per cent in June down only 0.1 per cent percentage points since February, while expectations in Brisbane, Sydney and Perth are down by 0.5-0.6 per cent
“Although most parts of Australia appear to have flattened the curve and suppressed COVID-19 to almost negligible levels, the renewed outbreak in Victoria also provides a stark warning to other jurisdictions about remaining vigilant,” Ms Levine said.
“The situation in Victoria clearly illustrates that the consequences of another nationwide outbreak would be devastating to businesses and the fragile economic recovery already underway. All efforts must be undertaken to prevent this from happening.”
About the author
About the author
Economy
Consumer confidence is quickly pushing Australia’s economy from recovery to expansion
Both Australian consumers and property investors came out of last month feeling pretty chuffed about the economy. ...Read more
Economy
4 Aussie cities among 10 most liveable in the world
This year’s global liveability score has been strongly influenced by measures taken to stem the spread of COVID-19, with cities ranked according to how successfully they dealt with the pandemic. Per...Read more
Economy
Australia attended the G7 as a ‘green laggard’, new report shows
Following a weekend at the G7, Australia has been labelled a “green laggard” as a consequence of letting its green competitiveness significantly slide over the past two decades. ...Read more
Economy
Melbourne’s lockdown ends tomorrow
As announced, Melbourne will begin its path out of lockdown as of 11.59pm Thursday evening, but some restrictions will remain. ...Read more
Economy
GDP slows to 60-year low
Australia’s gross domestic product per capita growth has fallen to its slowest pace in at least 60 years, with the massive government spending looking to come at a ‘great cost to future generation...Read more
Economy
Recovery falters just a month after JobKeeper ends
The end of JobKeeper has seen a rise in defaults and administrations, which could hamper Australia’s recovery from the COVID-19 downturn, new research has revealed. ...Read more
Economy
Frydenberg considers JobKeeper return for Victorians
The federal government has granted Victoria Premier James Merlino a chance to pitch his ‘JobKeeper style’ aid, but it has refused to acknowledge that Victoria’s predicament could be linked to fe...Read more
Economy
Australia’s economy is officially back to pre-pandemic levels
As most economists predicted, Australia’s economy is back to pre-pandemic levels, the latest official figures show. ...Read more
Are you being priced out of the market? Have you got the Tuesday blues? And are you ready for the upcoming super changes?
Listen now
Are property prices set to crash? Should you jump on board the fintok craze? And how to prepare for this tax time
Listen now
Dissecting the budget and what it means for your equities, property and super
Listen now
Has the property market reached its peak; Biden’s climate summit and our sharemarket, and the upcoming budget
Listen now
Economy
Consumer confidence is quickly pushing Australia’s economy from recovery to expansion
Both Australian consumers and property investors came out of last month feeling pretty chuffed about the economy. ...Read more
Economy
4 Aussie cities among 10 most liveable in the world
This year’s global liveability score has been strongly influenced by measures taken to stem the spread of COVID-19, with cities ranked according to how successfully they dealt with the pandemic. Per...Read more
Economy
Australia attended the G7 as a ‘green laggard’, new report shows
Following a weekend at the G7, Australia has been labelled a “green laggard” as a consequence of letting its green competitiveness significantly slide over the past two decades. ...Read more
Economy
Melbourne’s lockdown ends tomorrow
As announced, Melbourne will begin its path out of lockdown as of 11.59pm Thursday evening, but some restrictions will remain. ...Read more
Economy
GDP slows to 60-year low
Australia’s gross domestic product per capita growth has fallen to its slowest pace in at least 60 years, with the massive government spending looking to come at a ‘great cost to future generation...Read more
Economy
Recovery falters just a month after JobKeeper ends
The end of JobKeeper has seen a rise in defaults and administrations, which could hamper Australia’s recovery from the COVID-19 downturn, new research has revealed. ...Read more
Economy
Frydenberg considers JobKeeper return for Victorians
The federal government has granted Victoria Premier James Merlino a chance to pitch his ‘JobKeeper style’ aid, but it has refused to acknowledge that Victoria’s predicament could be linked to fe...Read more
Economy
Australia’s economy is officially back to pre-pandemic levels
As most economists predicted, Australia’s economy is back to pre-pandemic levels, the latest official figures show. ...Read more
More articles
Website Notifications
Get notifications in real-time for staying up to date with content that matters to you.
