Invest
Australian economy back to pre-COVID levels by 2021
The Australian economy is expected to bounce back to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2021 as wins on the health front and aggressive government policy have limited damage while boosting business and consumer confidence, an industry expert has revealed.
Australian economy back to pre-COVID levels by 2021
The Australian economy is expected to bounce back to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2021 as wins on the health front and aggressive government policy have limited damage while boosting business and consumer confidence, an industry expert has revealed.
While being buoyed by overall prospects of the Australian economy Janus Henderson Investors’ Australian fixed-interest investment strategist Frank Uhlenbruch said new outbreaks of COVID in Sydney and Melbourne and Australia’s relationship with China show Australia is not completely out of the woods.
“We still look for the Australian economy to rebound by around 5 per cent over 2021, though the latest outbreaks and reintroduction of state border controls have increased downside risks,” Mr Uhlenburch predicted.
“While a 5 per cent growth rate looks very high, we don’t expect the economy to reach the end of 2019 levels until late 2021.”
Mr Uhlenbruch added that the fund manager expected the economy to reach end-2019 levels in late 2021, as the “slack” built up in terms of unemployment and wage suppression would take a number of months to recoup.
“The economy will have built up considerable slack and this will continue to show up in an elevated unemployment rate, low rate of wages growth and inflation rate below the RBA’s 2 -3 per cent target band,” he said.
“With the cash rate now at 0.10 per cent and the RBA reluctant to move into a negative rate regime, further easing, if needed, is likely to come in quantitative form.”
Mr Uhlenbruch told investors that historically low-interest rates will persist for the next couple of years driving demand for income-producing assets.
“The preconditions for a shift in accommodative policy remain ‘outcome’ based. Fiscal policy will move from accommodation to consolidation only when the unemployment rate falls below 6 per cent,” he explained.
“Monetary conditions will only normalise (first tightening in a new cycle) when actual inflation is sustainably in the 2 -3 per cent RBA target band and the labour market is at full employment. We do not see these outcomes being achieved over the next couple of years.”
RELATED ARTICLES
About the author
About the author
Economy
Australia's June quarter GDP growth driven by consumer and government spending
Australia's economy has shown unexpected resilience in the June 2025 quarter, with household and government consumption driving growth despite a significant decline in public investmentRead more
Economy
Australia's GDP surprise is real but operators should heed the growth mix warning light
Australia’s June-quarter growth beat expectations on the strength of household consumption and government spending, even as public investment sagged. The upside surprise signals resilience, but the ...Read more
Economy
Households carried the quarter: what Australia’s upside GDP surprise means for strategy now
Australia’s economy expanded faster than expected in the June 2025 quarter, with GDP up 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 1.8 per cent year-on-year — the strongest pace in two years. The kicker ...Read more
Economy
Inflation dynamics in Australia: Electricity subsidies and labour market in focus
In a recent economic analysis, experts from State Street have highlighted significant developments in Australia's inflation landscape, attributing the changes primarily to the withdrawal of ...Read more
Economy
Australia's economic growth driven by consumer and government spending: A closer look at the June quarter
Australia's economy has delivered a surprising performance for the June 2025 quarter, surpassing expectations with a growth rate of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year. This unexpected ...Read more
Economy
Australian and Korean leaders meet to unlock billions in new trade opportunities
In a significant effort to bolster economic ties and explore new avenues for investment, Australian and Korean leaders, alongside business executives and government officials, are gathering in Seoul ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s growth beat is real — but it’s the wrong kind for capacity
Australia’s economy outpaced forecasts in the June quarter as households opened wallets and government spending did the heavy lifting, even as public investment sagged. The signal for boardrooms: ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s growth is back—but it’s the wrong kind of strong
GDP surprised on the upside in the June quarter, powered by households and government outlays even as public investment slumped. The Reserve Bank stayed hawkish, signalling that sticky services ...Read more
Economy
Australia's June quarter GDP growth driven by consumer and government spending
Australia's economy has shown unexpected resilience in the June 2025 quarter, with household and government consumption driving growth despite a significant decline in public investmentRead more
Economy
Australia's GDP surprise is real but operators should heed the growth mix warning light
Australia’s June-quarter growth beat expectations on the strength of household consumption and government spending, even as public investment sagged. The upside surprise signals resilience, but the ...Read more
Economy
Households carried the quarter: what Australia’s upside GDP surprise means for strategy now
Australia’s economy expanded faster than expected in the June 2025 quarter, with GDP up 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 1.8 per cent year-on-year — the strongest pace in two years. The kicker ...Read more
Economy
Inflation dynamics in Australia: Electricity subsidies and labour market in focus
In a recent economic analysis, experts from State Street have highlighted significant developments in Australia's inflation landscape, attributing the changes primarily to the withdrawal of ...Read more
Economy
Australia's economic growth driven by consumer and government spending: A closer look at the June quarter
Australia's economy has delivered a surprising performance for the June 2025 quarter, surpassing expectations with a growth rate of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year. This unexpected ...Read more
Economy
Australian and Korean leaders meet to unlock billions in new trade opportunities
In a significant effort to bolster economic ties and explore new avenues for investment, Australian and Korean leaders, alongside business executives and government officials, are gathering in Seoul ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s growth beat is real — but it’s the wrong kind for capacity
Australia’s economy outpaced forecasts in the June quarter as households opened wallets and government spending did the heavy lifting, even as public investment sagged. The signal for boardrooms: ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s growth is back—but it’s the wrong kind of strong
GDP surprised on the upside in the June quarter, powered by households and government outlays even as public investment slumped. The Reserve Bank stayed hawkish, signalling that sticky services ...Read more
