Invest
5 ways the election could impact your US investments
With the Biden v Trump election just around the corner, investors in the US market need to watch out for a host of possible scenarios in the event of a changing government, an industry expert has flagged.
5 ways the election could impact your US investments
With the Biden v Trump election just around the corner, investors in the US market need to watch out for a host of possible scenarios in the event of a changing government, an industry expert has flagged.
First Sentiers’ head of investments North America, John Ma, and senior portfolio manager Jason Epstein share the themes investors should look out for following the election.
1. A ‘blue wave’ win could spark a progressive policy push.
Investors could see a so-called “blue wave” win in the November election – where Biden becomes president and the Democrats win the majority in the Senate which could see progressive policies pushed through.
“Some of the policy areas already flagged in Biden’s campaign include tax rates, healthcare, infrastructure spending, climate change policy, education and housing,” Mr Epstein said.
2. Stimulus funds will flow freely – regardless of the winner.
Regardless of the winner, investors in the United States should expect a large-scale stimulus package to hit the economy.
Mr Epstein said, “There will be a tremendous level of fiscal and monetary stimulus, combined with the prospect of a new stimulus bill and the idea of a Fed ‘put’ for the foreseeable future.
“The real question is how sustainable that approach is. Will it continue to underpin markets, or is there a breaking point?
“There are also questions about how it will impact the US dollar, and if the US dollar will retain its place as the leading reserve currency.”
3. China relations remain under pressure.
The fund managers predicted that regardless of who wins the election, both sides will have a tough stance on China, which could impact sharemarkets.
“A tense relationship with China is likely to be the new normal, regardless of who’s president. Biden is looking to make the US competitive with China and to bring jobs back to US in areas such as automotive manufacturing. The goal is to have strong domestic production capabilities that reduce their reliance on China,” Mr Epstein said.
4. Infrastructure will remain a local affair.
Mr Ma said it’s important to recognise that the infrastructure market is predominantly under state and municipal control, rather than federal.
“The White House has less direct ability to influence outcomes in the infrastructure sector. While funding can be allocated to the states at a national level, it’s the states and cities who mostly choose how to deploy the funding. As such, the election is unlikely to have a big impact on specific infrastructure projects.”
It is possible, however, that governments prioritise short-term job creation.
“In the wake of the 2008 recession, Federal stimulus funds were focused on ‘shovel-ready’ projects that would create jobs immediately. It was a missed opportunity for bigger, more ambitious projects. Hopefully, we don’t see the same phenomenon play out this time,” Mr Ma said.
5. Democrats would give renewables a boost.
One area of clear differentiation between Biden and Trump is the Democrats’ emphasis on renewable energy.
“The more progressive elements of the party put forward concepts like the Green New Deal during the primaries season, and this has informed Biden’s policies.
“It’s likely Biden would be a net positive for the renewable energy sector, which is already experiencing strong tailwinds. While power generation is controlled locally and regionally, a Democrat administration is likely to put an emphasis on clean energy through levers like tax credits,” Mr Ma said.
RELATED ARTICLES
-
Australia’s spending surprise raises the odds of a February rate move — here’s how to protect margin and momentum
-
Australia’s inflation cools to 3.4% — why the RBA’s next move still isn’t a lay‑up for business
-
Inflation cools to 3.4% — but the RBA’s reaction function keeps businesses on a knife-edge
About the author
About the author
Economy
Australia’s spending surprise raises the odds of a February rate move — here’s how to protect margin and momentum
Household outlays are running hotter than economists expected, with the latest ABS readings showing broad-based gains across services and goods. That resilience is exactly the kind of demand impulse ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s inflation cools to 3.4% — why the RBA’s next move still isn’t a lay‑up for business
Headline inflation easing is good optics; balance sheets feel something different. With year‑on‑year CPI down to 3.4% in November from 3.8%, hopes for rate relief are rising — but policymakers remain ...Read more
Economy
Inflation cools to 3.4% — but the RBA’s reaction function keeps businesses on a knife-edge
Australia’s headline CPI edged down to 3.4% year-on-year in November, from 3.8%, easing immediate pressure but not eliminating the risk of further tightening. With services inflation sticky and ...Read more
Economy
Higher-for-longer, not higher forever: How Australia’s inflation ‘surprise’ is rewriting CFO playbooks for 2026
Australia’s latest inflation pulse eased but didn’t budge bank outlooks: near‑term rate cuts are still a long shot, with some houses flagging upside risk. That steadier‑for‑longer cash rate is pushing ...Read more
Economy
Australia's inflation illusion: the real challenge lies in pricing power and productivity
Headline inflation has cooled to 3.4% year-on-year, but the Reserve Bank’s caution—and a still‑hot housing backdrop—mean the rate threat hasn’t left the room. For boards, the next few quarters are ...Read more
Economy
When house prices lift, tills ring: A case study in turning Australia’s wealth effect into growth
Australia’s latest upswing in household wealth, anchored by higher dwelling values, is more than a feel‑good statistic—it is a profit and planning signal. The ABS notes property’s centrality to ...Read more
Economy
RBA's hawkish stance reflects inflation concerns, State Street economist comments
In a recent statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled a hawkish stance on interest rates, drawing insights from financial experts about the implications for Australia's economic ...Read more
Economy
Navigating the inflation maze: How CFOs can outsmart economic hurdles in Australia
Fresh inflation data have cooled expectations of near-term rate cuts in Australia, intensifying pressure on margins, capital allocation and demand. Rather than wait for monetary relief that may not ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s spending surprise raises the odds of a February rate move — here’s how to protect margin and momentum
Household outlays are running hotter than economists expected, with the latest ABS readings showing broad-based gains across services and goods. That resilience is exactly the kind of demand impulse ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s inflation cools to 3.4% — why the RBA’s next move still isn’t a lay‑up for business
Headline inflation easing is good optics; balance sheets feel something different. With year‑on‑year CPI down to 3.4% in November from 3.8%, hopes for rate relief are rising — but policymakers remain ...Read more
Economy
Inflation cools to 3.4% — but the RBA’s reaction function keeps businesses on a knife-edge
Australia’s headline CPI edged down to 3.4% year-on-year in November, from 3.8%, easing immediate pressure but not eliminating the risk of further tightening. With services inflation sticky and ...Read more
Economy
Higher-for-longer, not higher forever: How Australia’s inflation ‘surprise’ is rewriting CFO playbooks for 2026
Australia’s latest inflation pulse eased but didn’t budge bank outlooks: near‑term rate cuts are still a long shot, with some houses flagging upside risk. That steadier‑for‑longer cash rate is pushing ...Read more
Economy
Australia's inflation illusion: the real challenge lies in pricing power and productivity
Headline inflation has cooled to 3.4% year-on-year, but the Reserve Bank’s caution—and a still‑hot housing backdrop—mean the rate threat hasn’t left the room. For boards, the next few quarters are ...Read more
Economy
When house prices lift, tills ring: A case study in turning Australia’s wealth effect into growth
Australia’s latest upswing in household wealth, anchored by higher dwelling values, is more than a feel‑good statistic—it is a profit and planning signal. The ABS notes property’s centrality to ...Read more
Economy
RBA's hawkish stance reflects inflation concerns, State Street economist comments
In a recent statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled a hawkish stance on interest rates, drawing insights from financial experts about the implications for Australia's economic ...Read more
Economy
Navigating the inflation maze: How CFOs can outsmart economic hurdles in Australia
Fresh inflation data have cooled expectations of near-term rate cuts in Australia, intensifying pressure on margins, capital allocation and demand. Rather than wait for monetary relief that may not ...Read more
