Quarter of home owners happy to see prices fall: why?

By Lucy Dean

November 30 2017
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A survey from a non-major lender has found that 24 per cent of respondents who own a home want property prices to fall.

The ME Bank survey also found that 37 per cent of respondents overall wanted prices to fall.

Twenty per cent of respondents with an investment property would also be happy to see prices fall, however 38 per cent wanted to see prices continue to rise.

Commenting on the results, ME home loan expert Patrick Nolan said: “That property owners were willing to see asset values fall is a sure sign house prices had reached heights many think are unfair.”

Forty-three per cent of all respondents said they relied on future house prices to achieve their financial goals and 10 per cent said they were completely reliant.

“Traditionally Australians fall into two camps when it comes to property prices: owners, who want them to rise, and non-owners, who want them to fall,” Mr Nolan added.

“But with high prices disrupting the dream of home ownership and the benefits that brings, views are changing.”

According to the results, whether or not respondents owned property was a large factor in their attitude towards prices.

Thirty-nine per cent of those who own and live in their home said they were reliant on future prices. However, 47 per cent of property investors said they were reliant on future prices. ME Bank said this reliance was “presumably” tied to price increases.

ME Bank also said the 48 per cent of respondents who don’t own a home and who said they were reliant on price changes “presumably” want prices to fall.

According to an ME Bank spokesperson: “Most tellingly, the survey indicates more Australians would benefit from property prices falling than rising, with only 28 per cent indicating they’d benefit by selling if prices continued to rise compared to 47 per cent who said they’d benefit by buying in if property prices fell.”

For those who wanted prices to fall, ME Bank said the “overwhelming reason” was housing affordability (57 per cent). This sentiment was expressed by 97 per cent of people with property.

Most respondents who wanted property prices to continue rising were property owners, with 49 per cent of home owners and 55 per cent of investors expressing this sentiment.

Speaking to Nest Egg’s sister site, Smart Property Investment, last month, Bernard Salt of The Demographics Group said the “extraordinary” rate of price growth for Sydney properties “can’t keep going up” and could even subside.

He said that while Sydney property prices have “more zeros now than was ever the case”, that extreme growth will not continue.

Speaking on the Smart Property Investment podcast, he explained: “Those figures can’t keep going up at that exponential rate forever; it must plateau, or even subside. And I think what has actually happened in the last 12 months is that the Sydney market in some areas has subsided gently.”

He expects that the Sydney market will slow down by about 5 per cent, similar to what occurred in the Melbourne market after the 1992 recession. Following the initial dip, property prices “just went sideways” for about five years, he added, predicting this too will occur in Sydney.

“I don’t see a major collapse, you know there might be the property here or property there for various reasons, but I think wholesale, not across the entire city.”

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