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In a year characterised by economic turbulence and evolving market conditions, global deal activity has witnessed a notable downturn during the first ten months of 2025. According to GlobalData, a prominent data and analytics company, the total number of deals announced globally, encompassing mergers and acquisitions (M&A), private equity, and venture financing, has decreased by 6% year-on-year (YoY) from January to October 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

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GlobalData's comprehensive analysis of its Deals Database highlights a consistent downward trend across all deal types. M&A deal volume experienced a 4% decline during the January-October 2025 period compared to the previous year. Simultaneously, the number of venture financing deals and private equity deals saw YoY reductions of 6% and 16%, respectively.

Aurojyoti Bose, Lead Analyst at GlobalData, provided insight into the current market sentiment, stating, “The contraction in total volume of deals across all categories indicates a broader trend of cautiousness prevailing among dealmakers in a challenging market environment. This cautious sentiment is also echoed in all the regions and across most of the key markets, underscoring a growing wariness driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions.”

The decline in deal activity is not confined to a single region but is evident across the globe. North America experienced a 3% YoY decline in deal volume, while the Asia-Pacific region reported a 4% decrease. Europe faced a more significant drop of 9%, and the Middle East and Africa saw an 11% decline. South and Central America reported a 10% reduction in deal volume during the same period.

A closer examination of key markets reveals varying degrees of impact. The United States, a dominant player in the global deal landscape, witnessed a modest decrease of 2% in deal activity. In contrast, the United Kingdom faced a more pronounced decline of 12%. China, another major market, saw its deal volume decrease by 1% YoY.

Other significant markets, including Canada, Germany, Australia, France, South Korea, Brazil, and the UAE, also reported declines, further emphasising the widespread impact of the current economic climate.

Despite the overall downturn, there are exceptions to the trend. India and Japan emerged as bright spots, recording growth rates of 4% in deal activity. This suggests that these markets may possess a degree of resilience in the face of global challenges. The positive growth in India and Japan highlights the uneven nature of the trend across different regions, with some markets managing to maintain, or even increase, their momentum amid global uncertainties.

Bose further elaborated on the regional disparities, noting, "These figures highlight the uneven trend across different regions, with some markets struggling to maintain momentum amid global uncertainties." The varied performance across regions and markets underscores the complexity of the current global economic landscape, where local factors can significantly influence deal activity.

The decline in deal activity is reflective of a broader sense of caution among dealmakers, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions. The economic environment has prompted many companies to adopt a wait-and-see approach, delaying or scaling back potential deals until there is greater clarity and stability.

This cautious approach is mirrored in the sentiments of industry experts and analysts who are closely monitoring the evolving situation. The global economic landscape remains fraught with uncertainties, from inflationary pressures and interest rate fluctuations to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. These factors continue to weigh heavily on the decision-making processes of dealmakers worldwide.

As the year progresses, stakeholders in the global deal landscape will be closely watching for signs of recovery or further decline. The ability of markets to adapt to the changing conditions and navigate the challenges ahead will be crucial in determining the trajectory of deal activity in the coming months.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-11-18 22:00:20" ["slug"]=> string(85) "19377:global-deal-activity-declines-by-6-amid-economic-uncertainty-reports-globaldata" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9478 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

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In a year characterised by economic turbulence and evolving market conditions, global deal activity has witnessed a notable downturn during the first ten months of 2025. According to GlobalData, a prominent data and analytics company, the total number of deals announced globally, encompassing mergers and acquisitions (M&A), private equity, and venture financing, has decreased by 6% year-on-year (YoY) from January to October 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

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NSW is moving to sharply increase penalties for misleading price guides, including fines linked to agent commissions and maximum penalties up to $110,000. Behind the headlines sits a more consequential shift: price transparency is becoming a systems problem, not just a sales discipline. Agencies that treat this as a data‑governance challenge—using audit trails, AI‑assisted valuations and real‑time updates—can reduce risk and win listings on trust. Here’s a case‑style analysis of what it takes to operationalise compliance and the commercial upside for early movers.

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Context: A compliance stick with balance‑sheet consequences

NSW intends to lift sanctions for deceptive pricing in property campaigns significantly, with proposals that include fines up to five times current penalties, a maximum of $110,000, and the ability to levy penalties tied to three times an agent’s commission (as reported by Real Estate Business and related coverage). The aim is clear: realign incentives so that underquoting is no longer a commercially rational risk.

In commercial terms, the shift converts reputational risk into quantifiable financial exposure. On a $1.0 million sale at a 2 per cent commission, a three-times-commission penalty could reach $60,000. On a $3.0 million prestige listing at the same rate, the exposure could be $180,000—well above typical marketing budgets, and material enough to affect franchise P&L and insurer appetite. Proposed maximum penalties up to $110,000 further harden the downside.

Why the urgency? Consumer trust in digital markets is under sustained scrutiny. The ACCC reported Google’s ~94 per cent share of general search in Australia in 2024—evidence that a few dominant digital channels shape discovery and expectations. When buyers see inconsistent price guides across high‑visibility portals, regulators move to set firmer guardrails. The NSW measures sit within that wider trajectory of tightening transparency across high‑stakes consumer markets.

Decision: Treat pricing as a governed data product, not a brochure line

Our case analysis focuses on a mid‑sized NSW residential agency network (composite of common practices). Leadership reframed pricing from a sales judgement to a governed data product with defined inputs (comparables, vendor statements, independent valuation ranges), processing rules (when and how guides can be updated), outputs (published ranges on portals, brochures, social), and controls (audit trail, approvals, attestations).

Two guiding principles anchored the decision: transparency and accountability, echoing the Australian Government’s AI Ethics Principles, which call for systems that are fair, reliable and contestable. The agency mapped these principles to pricing workflows, elevating sign‑off rights, and making data provenance visible in the CRM.

Implementation: Compliance by design—process, tooling, training

To operationalise the reform, the network executed a 90‑day program across four streams:

1) Policy and thresholds. Standardised a “price evidence pack” for every listing: at least three recent comparables, vendor price expectations, and any independent or automated valuation range. Introduced hard rules: if an offer or vendor feedback exceeds the top end of the published range by a defined threshold (e.g., 10 per cent), the range must be updated within 24 hours across all channels or the listing paused. Exceptions require director sign‑off with documented rationale.

2) Systems and data lineage. Upgraded the CRM to create a single source of truth for the price guide, integrating with listing portals via API. Built immutable logs for changes to price ranges—who changed what, when, and why—with attachments to evidence packs. Implemented alerts to prompt updates when inbound offers or private inspections revealed materially higher buyer feedback.

3) Analytics and AI assistance. Deployed an automated valuation model (AVM) to provide a baseline range using recent sales, property attributes and suburb trends. Importantly, the AVM was positioned as decision support rather than decision maker, aligned to AI governance norms used in other Australian agencies such as the ATO’s emphasis on human oversight for high‑impact AI use cases (noted in its 2024 consultation response). Explanations were surfaced—key comparables driving the range—supporting agent accountability and vendor education.

4) People and incentives. Incentive plans were adjusted to penalise non‑compliant campaigns (with claw‑backs) and reward accurate initial guides that minimise mid‑campaign changes. Training covered regulator expectations, case law summaries, and mock audits. A monthly “pricing quality” scorecard was published, ranking offices on adherence and variance between guide and achieved sale price.

Results: The numbers that matter (modeled and early indicators)

While reforms are still being finalised, the agency’s business case model and early internal indicators provide directional results:

Risk reduction: Based on last year’s campaign mix (200 auctions, median guide $1.1m), shifting to governed pricing reduced estimated penalty exposure by 70–85 per cent, primarily by eliminating low‑evidence ranges. Illustrative exposure per prestige campaign (> $2.5m) fell from potential six‑figure penalties to low five figures through tighter controls.

Cost to comply: One‑off investment of ~$180,000 (CRM upgrades, integration, training) plus ~$45,000 annual run‑rate (data subscriptions, audit support) across 10 offices. Payback within one severe non‑compliance event avoided or through insurer premium reductions.

Conversion advantage: Listing conversion rate increased by an early 3–5 percentage points where vendors were shown transparent evidence packs and AVM explainability, with vendor NPS comments citing “clarity” and “less game‑playing”.

Operational efficiency: Time to update guides across channels dropped from 6–8 hours to under 60 minutes via CRM‑to‑portal sync and automated approvals. Reduced manual errors lowered portal correction fees and reprint costs for collateral.

Market trends and competitive dynamics

Three trends intersect here:

1) Enforcement calibration. By linking penalties to commissions, regulators align fines with economic gain. That mirrors patterns in other sectors where penalties scale with revenue at risk.

2) Digital transparency normalisation. Consumers expect the same clarity in property as in other digitally intermediated markets. The ACCC’s ongoing scrutiny of market power in digital platforms underscores why government sees transparency as a pro‑competition lever.

3) AI with guardrails. Australia’s AI Ethics Principles—human oversight, fairness, transparency—are no longer abstract in real estate. They shape how AVMs are deployed, explained and overridden.

Early adopters will market compliance capability as a trust asset. Expect portals to lean in too—automated checks for anomalous price guides vs suburb medians, flags when reserve exceeds published range, and templated “evidence packs” embedded in listings.

Technical deep dive: Building a defensible pricing stack

A defensible system blends data rigour with explainability:

- Data inputs: Recent comparable sales, property attributes, micro‑location factors, market velocity metrics (days on market, clearance rates), and vendor‑disclosed constraints.

- Model approach: Gradient‑boosted regressors or similar for AVM baselines, with uncertainty bands to produce ranges rather than point estimates. Outlier detection flags guides more than two standard deviations below modelled fair value.

- Controls: Role‑based approvals, immutable logs, and automatic portal updates via API to eliminate stale guides. Dashboards track variance between initial guide, updated guide and hammer price.

- Governance: Policy mapping to AI Ethics Principles: publishable explanations; human‑in‑the‑loop overrides; bias checks by dwelling type and suburb; regular model recalibration.

Lessons: What business leaders should do now

- Quantify risk by segment. Model penalty exposure by listing tier and commission structure. Use scenario analysis (e.g., 1–3× commission vs $110k maximums) to set risk appetite and insurance coverage.

- Rewire incentives. Align agent rewards to pricing accuracy and compliance, not just volume. Introduce claw‑backs for non‑compliant campaigns.

- Codify evidence. Make price evidence packs mandatory and auditable. Treat the price guide as a governed data asset with lineage and attestations.

- Deploy AI with governance. Use AVMs for baseline guidance and education, with transparent explanations and documented human overrides—consistent with national AI ethics guidance and governance practices seen in agencies like the ATO.

- Partner with portals. Push for API‑level sync and validation rules that prevent stale or non‑compliant ranges from being published.

- Prepare for contagion. Expect other states to consider similar penalty models. Designing once for national portability reduces future change costs.

The NSW crackdown is more than a penalty uplift; it’s a structural invitation to compete on trust. Agencies that build pricing systems with the same discipline they apply to finance and WHS will not just avoid fines—they’ll convert compliance into a brand moat.

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NSW is moving to sharply increase penalties for misleading price guides, including fines linked to agent commissions and maximum penalties up to $110,000. Behind the headlines sits a more consequential shift: price transparency is becoming a systems problem, not just a sales discipline. Agencies that treat this as a data‑governance challenge—using audit trails, AI‑assisted valuations and real‑time updates—can reduce risk and win listings on trust. Here’s a case‑style analysis of what it takes to operationalise compliance and the commercial upside for early movers.

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Australia’s Women in Finance Awards have crowned their 2025 cohort, but the real story isn’t the stage—it’s the strategy. Recognition programs now function as market barometers, signalling which capabilities (ethics-driven AI, disciplined risk, client outcomes) are winning in finance. With winners announced in Sydney and the program drawing hundreds of industry leaders in recent years, this is a useful lens on where value is shifting. For boards and CEOs, the awards reveal where competitive advantage is accruing—and how to operationalise it.

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Q1. What do the 2025 Women in Finance Awards tell us about where the market is heading?

Three signals stand out. First, capability mix: the programs consistently elevate leaders who blend customer advocacy, prudent risk and digital execution. The 2025 ceremony, held in Sydney on 14 November, continued a pattern established in prior years, when more than 650 industry leaders gathered to benchmark best practice (2023). Second, trust as a differentiator: governance, conduct and explainability are moving from compliance to commercial levers. Third, ecosystem readiness: the most competitive firms are building cross-functional squads that can ship compliant innovation at pace—particularly in lending, broking, auditing and advisory—areas highlighted across recent finance and professional awards calendars.

Viewed through a strategy lens, these awards function as a heat map. Categories that grow or tighten criteria tend to mirror regulator priorities and client expectations. This year’s emphasis, from pre-briefings to shortlists, points to data-savvy leadership, measurable customer outcomes and disciplined growth.

Q2. Does recognition translate into commercial value—and how should CFOs measure it?

Yes, if treated as a go-to-market asset. Cross-industry evidence suggests award-winning initiatives correlate with measurable business gains when embedded in sales, talent and partner motions. For instance, the ARN Women in ICT Awards (May 2025) explicitly cited recipients for making an “immediate and positive impact on the business”, underscoring the link between excellence narratives and outcomes. Similarly, the Hackett Group’s 2025 innovation awards spotlighted data platform transformations as operational value creators, reinforcing a playbook finance firms can adapt: codify the story, then monetise it.

Practical measurement framework for finance leaders:

• Revenue: pipeline uplift in award-relevant segments (e.g., SME lending) within 90 days; track conversion delta versus pre-award baselines.
• Talent: time-to-accept for critical roles; candidate quality (shortlist-to-offer ratio). Note that employer recognition—such as Grant Thornton’s prior win as Employer of the Year in a Women in Finance context—often correlates with stronger employer brand recall.
• Trust and retention: Net Promoter Score movement for client cohorts marketed to with the recognition proof-point.
• Channel economics: partner referrals, aggregator tiers, and cost per acquisition (CPA) improvements in campaigns using the award.
• Procurement advantage: shortlist rates in enterprise or public tenders where third-party validation is weighted.

Q3. Where do ethical AI and governance fit into the winners’ playbook?

Squarely at the centre. Australia’s 8 AI Ethics Principles are designed to ensure AI is “safe, secure and reliable” (Australian Government). For finance, that translates into robust model governance, fairness testing and human-in-the-loop controls for credit, fraud and collections decisions. The Australian Taxation Office’s published materials on AI governance underscore a public-sector standard moving toward general-purpose AI oversight—an indicator that private-sector finance will face similar expectations.

Technical deep dive—minimum viable AI governance for finance operations:

• Model explainability: document features and decision pathways for credit models; provide adverse action reasons traceable to model artefacts.
• Bias and fairness: run pre-deployment and periodic disparate impact analyses across protected attributes; trigger remediation workflows.
• Data lineage: maintain versioned datasets with access controls and audit trails; align with internal risk taxonomies.
• Human oversight: set intervention thresholds for edge cases or high-impact decisions; require second-line sign-off for model changes.
• Incident response: define model rollback and customer remediation protocols.

Award-winning leaders increasingly treat this as a commercial capability, not a compliance cost—accelerating approvals while protecting customers and brand.

Q4. What broader market forces will amplify or dilute the impact of a win?

Distribution economics and digital discoverability are decisive. The ACCC reports Google’s search share in Australia at nearly 94% (Dec 2024). For brokers and lenders, that means awards must be operationalised into search authority and lead capture—schema-marked press, expert commentary and conversion-optimised landing pages—otherwise the halo fades. Additionally, shifting professional standards and audit expectations raise the bar on evidence: independent benchmarking, verifiable metrics and client references will matter more than trophies in isolation.

On the talent front, recognition remains a powerful signal. The 2024 program also culminated at the Hyatt Regency Sydney, reflecting continuity and growing professional gravity. In a constrained labour market, that visibility is a durable asset—if paired with development pathways and inclusive leadership that retain high performers.

Q5. How should firms operationalise “what winners do” over the next 90–180 days?

Five-step execution plan:

• Codify value: translate the award-winning initiative into a two-page commercial narrative—problem, intervention, quantified outcomes, client impact.
• Embed in go-to-market: update sales playbooks, tender libraries and partner decks; run a targeted PR-SEO campaign aligned to the ACCC’s search reality.
• Govern risk and AI: align decisioning systems to Australia’s AI Ethics Principles; adopt ATO-style governance patterns—model registers, monitoring SLAs, approval gates.
• Talent and culture: set inclusive leadership KPIs; formalise sponsorship programs for emerging women leaders in profit-and-loss roles.
• Metrics and feedback: implement the measurement framework in Q2 above; publish outcomes internally to reinforce learning and accountability.

Q6. What’s the 12–24 month outlook—and where are the strategic moats?

Expect a higher evidentiary bar: future shortlists will privilege measurable customer outcomes, ethical AI controls and cross-functional delivery. Borrow from technology roadmapping disciplines increasingly used by government and industry: define a finance “capability roadmap” spanning decision science, risk, customer, and talent, with quarterly checkpoints and retirement plans for legacy processes. Public-sector direction on AI governance (and the broader national ethics settings) will filter into bank and non-bank tender requirements; being audit-ready will become a sales advantage.

Strategic moats will form at the intersection of trust and speed: firms that can stand up compliant, explainable models; surface transparent pricing and advice; and turn recognition into inbound demand at meaningful scale. Awards will continue to act as credible third-party validation—useful, but only if backed by operating discipline that compounds over time.

Q7. Any cautionary notes for leaders banking on awards as strategy?

Two. First, correlation is not causation: trophies don’t fix weak unit economics or leaky funnels. Treat recognition as an accelerant, not a foundation. Second, avoid “performative” inclusion. Sustainable diversity is built through accountable leadership, equitable stretch assignments and clear progression pathways. The finance firms that win—and keep winning—will be those that convert recognition into repeatable systems, measured by customer, talent and risk outcomes, not headlines.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-11-16 23:10:33" ["slug"]=> string(96) "19338:beyond-the-trophy-what-the-women-in-finance-awards-2025-signal-for-strategy-talent-and-roi" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9611 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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Australia’s Women in Finance Awards have crowned their 2025 cohort, but the real story isn’t the stage—it’s the strategy. Recognition programs now function as market barometers, signalling which capabilities (ethics-driven AI, disciplined risk, client outcomes) are winning in finance. With winners announced in Sydney and the program drawing hundreds of industry leaders in recent years, this is a useful lens on where value is shifting. For boards and CEOs, the awards reveal where competitive advantage is accruing—and how to operationalise it.

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A softening labour market has put an RBA rate cut back in play. For business leaders, the real question isn’t whether the cut lands in November or a subsequent meeting—it’s how to reposition balance sheets, capex, currency risk and talent strategy for an easing cycle that may be shallow but meaningful. Here’s the CFO and CEO playbook, grounded in data, scenarios and Australia-specific policy signals.

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The headline is simple: a rise in unemployment has reopened the door to policy easing. The implication for executives is more complex. An earlier-than-expected rate cut would reshape debt costs, demand conditions and the dollar—while sending a mixed signal about growth. The winners will be those who act on the signal, not the date, and sequence refinancing, M&A, hedging and hiring to capture the early-cycle edge.

The signal that matters: a labour market turning point

The Australian labour market is loosening at the margin. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, unemployed people rose by 3,100 to 669,600 in the latest print, with youth unemployment steady at 9.8% (ABS, Labour Force, October 2025). This is consistent with the Reserve Bank’s earlier guidance that conditions would cool but not collapse. The RBA’s August 2024 Statement on Monetary Policy anticipated a “gradual” easing in the labour market that would stabilise as GDP growth picked up.

In macro terms, this looks like a classic late-cycle deceleration: vacancy-to-unemployment ratios easing, hours worked plateauing, and wage growth tempering from peak levels. For operators, that cocktail usually lowers labour cost pressures even as top-line demand becomes more uneven—especially in discretionary categories.

Reading the RBA’s reaction function: why a cut is plausible

Through the lens of a simplified Taylor Rule, the RBA weighs deviations of inflation from target alongside economic slack. With unemployment drifting higher and inflation moderating from its peak, the central bank’s reaction function tilts toward easing—especially if forward indicators (job ads, underemployment, retail volumes) soften further. The RBA reiterated in February 2025 that it expected the unemployment rate to “increase a little further” before stabilising, reinforcing the view that the labour market is moving into slightly slack territory.

Markets are now treating near-term meetings as “live” for a cut. Budget 2025-26 commentary noted a reduction in the cash rate earlier in the year, and a further move remains on the table if growth underwhelms and disinflation continues. The path is likely to be shallow rather than a sharp pivot, given persistent services inflation risks and the RBA’s sensitivity to housing and the exchange rate.

Business impact: cashflow, capex and currency

For CFOs, each 25-basis point reduction trims annual interest expense by about $2,500 per $1 million of floating-rate debt. For mid-market firms with $50–$200 million in variable exposures, that’s $125,000–$500,000 a year in savings per cut—enough to reweight budgets toward capex that was marginal at higher rates.

The catch is the currency. Easing typically softens the Australian dollar in trade-weighted terms, which the RBA closely monitors. A weaker AUD lifts import costs, tightens margins for retailers and manufacturers with offshore inputs, and can complicate pricing for tech and industrial gear. Exporters and tourism-adjacent sectors benefit, particularly as international student flows rebuild after the 2020–2021 border closures (2022–2023 enrolments rebounded after the pandemic-era slump, per the 2023 Higher Education Student Statistics). Net effect: domestically oriented discretionary spend is mixed; tradables and services exports get a tailwind.

Competitive advantage in an easing cycle: the operator’s playbook

Three moves reliably separate leaders from laggards when rates edge down:

1) Reprice risk and refinance early. Pull forward loan renegotiations, extend duration selectively, and ladder maturities to balance flexibility with cost certainty. Opportunistic issuers can access tighter spreads before the cycle is fully priced.

2) Reopen the M&A filter. Pipeline acquisitions that were NPV-neutral at higher discount rates can clear the hurdle with 25–50 bps relief. Expect consolidation in consumer, healthcare services and software—segments where revenue visibility and cost synergies are tangible.

3) Invest in productivity, not just growth. Australia’s AI ecosystem faces a commercialisation gap, but governance frameworks are already in place (Australia’s AI Ethics Principles; the ATO’s AI governance approach). Deploying AI for workflow automation and decision support builds resilience if demand underperforms. Treat small-scale deployments as options with asymmetric upside; prioritise use cases with auditable ROI and clear data governance.

Sector lenses and case notes

Housing and consumer: Lower rates support borrowing capacity and construction activity, but the bounce may be contained by supply constraints and tighter credit standards. Retail gains if confidence stabilises; import-heavy categories should hedge FX.

Education and services exports: The post-pandemic rebound in international students has restored a crucial export channel. Beyond tuition, this boosts hospitality and rental demand, complicating the RBA’s assessment of services inflation versus growth support. Universities and VET providers can capture share by aligning programs to skills shortages, accelerating the ROI loop between training and employability (TVET ROI frameworks link participation to growth via reduced unemployment).

Industrial and infrastructure: A modest rate cut can greenlight deferred projects. Sequencing matters: lock in supply contracts before AUD weakness passes through to equipment costs; consider currency-adjusted contingencies.

Implementation reality: risk controls and timing

Adopt a three-scenario planning grid—Base (one cut in the next two meetings), Easing (two to three cuts over 12 months), and Stalled (no cut, growth slows). For each, set triggers and actions:

- Treasury: Pre-approve hedging bands for FX and rates; use collars to protect downside without overpaying for optionality. Map covenant headroom under each scenario.

- Working capital: Secure early supplier discounts as funding costs ease, but avoid inventory bloat if demand remains patchy. Dynamic pricing can pass through import cost volatility.

- Workforce: Shift from blanket freezes to targeted hiring in revenue-critical and automation-heavy roles. Calibrate wage offers to market softening without eroding engagement; fund upskilling aligned to AI-enabled processes. The payoff rises when labour markets loosen and training time costs fall.

Outlook: shallow cycle, not a pivot

The most probable path is a gentle easing that cushions growth while the labour market “eases at a gradual pace” (RBA, August 2024), with unemployment edging higher before stabilising (RBA, February 2025). That argues against overextending on leverage or inventory bets. Instead, treat the next cut as a window to refinance, reset risk buffers and fund productivity plays that pay back under conservative demand assumptions.

In short: if policy loosens, act quickly but conservatively. Move first on balance-sheet efficiencies and capability-building, hedge the currency, and let competitors chase the growth narrative while you bank durable cost advantages. In late-cycle transitions, it’s the cautious optimists—not the exuberant—who typically outperform.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-11-16 23:00:50" ["slug"]=> string(89) "19342:easing-bias-hard-choices-what-a-potential-rba-rate-cut-means-for-corporate-strategy" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9613 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

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A softening labour market has put an RBA rate cut back in play. For business leaders, the real question isn’t whether the cut lands in November or a subsequent meeting—it’s how to reposition balance sheets, capex, currency risk and talent strategy for an easing cycle that may be shallow but meaningful. Here’s the CFO and CEO playbook, grounded in data, scenarios and Australia-specific policy signals.

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In a bold move to reshape investor perspectives, Orbis Investments has released a new report titled "Six Courageous Questions for 2026," encouraging investors to critically evaluate their assumptions and re-examine widely accepted market narratives. The contrarian global equity manager, which oversees A$72 billion in assets, aims to challenge the status quo by addressing key areas such as US market concentration, the economics of artificial intelligence (AI), and the potential vulnerabilities of the US dollar.

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Eric Marais, Head of Investment Specialists at Orbis Investments, emphasised the importance of this introspective approach. "Change has accelerated, and it’s reshaping the investment landscape. In this environment, success will require the courage to test assumptions, act when opportunities arise, and the discipline to be selective," Marais stated, highlighting the dynamic nature of current market conditions.

The report's central message is clear: investors should strive for genuine diversification, maintain a disciplined approach to valuations, and rebalance their portfolios to enhance resilience. Marais elaborated on this by saying, "For Orbis, that means looking at neglected areas of the market, such as opportunities in the healthcare sector, US companies left behind in the AI boom, and emerging markets."

Orbis suggests that the key to success in 2026 lies not in having all the answers but in asking the right questions. "Success isn’t about having all the answers - it’s about asking the important questions. We would encourage investors to use these questions to test their assumptions and act with discipline and conviction in 2026," Marais added.

The report poses six pivotal questions, starting with the potential shift in US market leadership. Orbis questions whether the exceptionalism that has driven the success of the US's largest stocks is sustainable. With investors paying 34 times earnings for mega-cap technology companies, the report warns of the dangers associated with extreme concentration and valuation risks. "History suggests that when market leadership becomes this narrow, opportunity for investors often shifts elsewhere," the report notes, urging investors to consider the broader market landscape beyond the dominant players.

Another critical question raised by Orbis concerns the US dollar's status as the world's safest currency. The report highlights the pressures facing the dollar, including potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and fiscal challenges that could weaken its long-term prospects. Orbis suggests that investors might benefit from diversifying into alternative currencies with attractive characteristics, such as the Australian dollar, Japanese yen, and Norwegian krone.

Orbis also encourages investors to scrutinise their portfolio allocations in light of shifting global dynamics. With US policy becoming more inward-focused, other export-led economies are expected to adapt by increasing domestic investment and fiscal expansion. This shift could offer new opportunities in markets outside the US, where assets and currencies remain undervalued. "This potentially marks a new era for markets outside the US where assets and currencies are currently cheap – potentially offering a ‘double discount’ for investors," the report asserts.

Emerging markets (EM) present another area of interest for Orbis, as they currently trade at more attractive valuations compared to their US counterparts. While investing in EMs carries inherent risks, Orbis believes these risks are often reflected in visible discounts. The report challenges investors to consider whether avoiding EMs might pose a deeper risk to portfolio resilience. "An important consideration for investors seeking to build stronger, more resilient long-term portfolios is the diversification benefit EM exposure may provide," the report advises.

The potential bubble in the AI sector is another topic of exploration. Orbis acknowledges the transformative potential of AI technology but warns investors of the risks associated with overpaying for speculative investments. Instead, the report suggests seeking selective exposure to companies that can harness the structural benefits of AI adoption without the inflated valuations.

Finally, Orbis raises the prospect of a global shift towards national self-reliance, a trend accelerated by policies from the Trump administration. This shift towards prioritising national security, food, and energy security marks a structural reset, according to Orbis. The report encourages investors to consider companies that cater to these foundational needs as potentially undervalued opportunities in the global market.

Overall, Orbis Investments' report serves as a call to action for investors to question established assumptions and explore new avenues for growth and resilience in the ever-evolving investment landscape.

This article contains general information only and not personal advice.

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• Yes

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In a bold move to reshape investor perspectives, Orbis Investments has released a new report titled "Six Courageous Questions for 2026," encouraging investors to critically evaluate their assumptions and re-examine widely accepted market narratives. The contrarian global equity manager, which oversees A$72 billion in assets, aims to challenge the status quo by addressing key areas such as US market concentration, the economics of artificial intelligence (AI), and the potential vulnerabilities of the US dollar.

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ANZ lifted home-lending volumes, yet profits fell under the weight of regulatory and restructuring costs—an object lesson in the futility of growth that doesn’t convert to margin and productivity. With Western Australia driving a sizeable share of new mortgages and housing momentum forecast to cool in 2025, the economics of Australian home lending are being stress-tested. Competitive pressure from broker-led distribution, higher funding costs and heavier compliance burdens are reshaping returns across the big four. The winners will be those that combine price discipline, rigorous capital allocation and an AI-enabled cost reset—without tripping governance lines.

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Key implication: Mortgage growth is no strategy if unit economics deteriorate. ANZ’s profit decline, despite expanding its loan book, underscores a broader reality for lenders in 2024–25: scale must be matched by pricing power, capital efficiency and operational productivity. Otherwise, volume simply amplifies cost and capital consumption.

Market context: heat at the edges, moderation ahead

ANZ has leaned into demand pockets, with just under a fifth of its new mortgages written in Western Australia and a further 8% in South Australia and the Northern Territory, according to sector reporting. That geographic skew tracks today’s hottest housing markets—Perth remains exceptionally tight—with faster deal velocity and strong broker activity. Yet ANZ Research expects capital city prices to rise 6–7% in 2024, slowing to 5–6% in 2025 as population growth eases and supply lifts. In short: momentum persists, but the peak tailwind is easing.

This timing matters for banks whose profitability relies on net interest margin (NIM) stabilisation and credit quality. As volumes grow into a cooling price cycle, lenders must resist the temptation to buy market share through deeper rate discounting, which can compress margins precisely when funding costs and regulatory overheads remain elevated.

The unit economics problem: NIM, costs and capital

Why can a bigger mortgage book coincide with weaker profits? Three forces dominate the P&L:

• Margin compression: Deposit competition has intensified, raising the cost of sticky funding, while wholesale funding remains structurally higher than the pre-pandemic era. Aggressive discounting in the broker channel further erodes front-book margins.
• Operating and compliance costs: Ongoing regulatory settlements, remediation and restructuring charges hit the income statement and distract management focus. Compliance isn’t cyclical; it’s a permanent cost of doing business in Australian banking.
• Capital intensity: Mortgages consume risk-weighted assets under APRA’s framework, tying up capital that could be deployed into higher-return segments. ANZ itself notes that, despite recent home-lending growth, it still has more capital invested in New Zealand businesses and agriculture than in home loans—an implicit signal on relative returns.

Add it up, and the return-on-equity of incremental mortgages can fall below hurdle rates if lenders compete primarily on price and speed. Volume, absent productivity and pricing discipline, becomes self-defeating.

Competition: broker-led battleground and the speed premium

Australia’s mortgage broking market remains fiercely competitive, with lenders fighting for visibility and shelf space in aggregator panels. The market commentary is consistent: the broking industry has intensified, with rapid sales cycles in hotspots like Perth compressing decision windows. Cashbacks may have faded, but sharp pricing and fast approvals still win mandates—often at the expense of NIM.

This dynamic rewards lenders with superior workflow orchestration: instant verification of income and identity, automated valuation models, and streamlined credit decisioning that preserve margin by lowering cost-to-serve rather than relying on price undercutting. Those still stitching together legacy systems will continue to pay through the front-book.

Execution reality: an AI-enabled cost reset—done safely

Productivity is the lever management can still pull. The question is how, and how quickly. Generative and predictive AI can lift throughput across underwriting, fraud detection, collections, and customer service. The Australian Taxation Office’s AI governance approach—articulated in public documentation—offers a blueprint: define model risk tiers, establish clear accountabilities, enforce auditability and human-in-the-loop controls. That matters because Australia’s AI Ethics Principles set expectations for AI that is safe, secure and reliable, especially in credit decisioning where bias and explainability risks are acute.

Practical priorities for banks include: straight-through processing for low-risk applications, broker onboarding with real-time compliance checks, dynamic credit-policy engines tuned by outcomes data, and AI-assisted customer remediation. These initiatives can take 12–24 months to materially impact the cost-to-income ratio. Boards should demand a technology roadmap that pairs near-term automation savings with medium-term platform simplification—retiring duplicative systems that inflate run costs.

Geographic mix and risk posture: WA strength, cyclical sensitivity

Heavier exposure to Western Australia brings upside from robust labour markets and constrained housing supply, but it also concentrates cyclicality tied to commodities. Lenders should pressure-test portfolios for a two-speed economy scenario: if mining-related incomes soften, what happens to serviceability and arrears in WA-heavy cohorts? The reality is that Australian borrowers have borne significant rate increases; serviceability buffers and prudential settings have helped, but variable-rate sensitivity remains a watchpoint as fixed-rate roll-offs wash through.

Portfolio hygiene therefore matters: dynamic LVR monitoring, granular segmentation by borrower type and region, and early-warning triggers that couple transaction data with employment indicators. Growth shouldn’t outpace the institution’s ability to observe and act on emerging risk.

Outlook: fewer quick wins, more grind

Market strategists have cautioned that bank earnings face a transition year: fewer one-offs to the upside, more grind on costs. ANZ does not publish quarterly profit figures, limiting short-term visibility, but the medium-term drivers are clear. Base case: housing activity stays resilient while price growth moderates; NIM stabilises as deposit repricing peaks; credit losses remain contained. Downside: stickier funding costs and a turn in arrears clip earnings. Upside: a decisive cost reset, re-pricing discipline and capital rotation into higher-return assets.

For now, growth at any price is out. Growth at the right price—underpinned by productivity and governance—still creates value.

Strategic playbook for leaders

For banks and non-bank lenders:

• Re-price with intent: Codify minimum economic thresholds for front-book lending and enforce pricing exceptions tightly in the broker channel.
• Accelerate cost take-out: Target straight-through processing on defined segments within 12 months; link executive incentives to cost-to-income milestones.
• Govern AI like a financial model: Adopt model risk policies aligned to Australia’s AI Ethics Principles; validate fairness, explainability and stability before scaling.
• Optimise capital: Recycle capital from sub-economic mortgage cohorts into higher-ROE business lending where risk-adjusted returns justify allocation.
• Manage geographic concentration: Set exposure limits for WA and other fast-growing regions, backed by stress scenarios tied to commodity cycles.

For corporates beyond banking, the lesson travels well: volume rarely fixes a margin problem; regulation is a durable cost; and AI, without governance and a platform simplification agenda, won’t deliver the structural productivity lift boards are banking on.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-11-12 04:43:03" ["slug"]=> string(88) "19286:anzs-mortgage-growth-profit-slump-why-volume-without-margin-wont-pay-the-dividends" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9645 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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ANZ lifted home-lending volumes, yet profits fell under the weight of regulatory and restructuring costs—an object lesson in the futility of growth that doesn’t convert to margin and productivity. With Western Australia driving a sizeable share of new mortgages and housing momentum forecast to cool in 2025, the economics of Australian home lending are being stress-tested. Competitive pressure from broker-led distribution, higher funding costs and heavier compliance burdens are reshaping returns across the big four. The winners will be those that combine price discipline, rigorous capital allocation and an AI-enabled cost reset—without tripping governance lines.

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