Invest
Why is Melbourne property falling more than everywhere else?
The fallout from COVID-19 has seen Melbourne property markets fall by 2.3 per cent, making it the worst-performing capital city, new research has shown.
Why is Melbourne property falling more than everywhere else?
The fallout from COVID-19 has seen Melbourne property markets fall by 2.3 per cent, making it the worst-performing capital city, new research has shown.
Numbers released in June by CoreLogic show that Melbourne has fallen by almost three times as much as Sydney.
“The results may be surprising, particularly when considering that the Sydney growth rate, which often moves quite closely with Melbourne property, was less than half this rate in the same period (at -0.8 per cent),” CoreLogic’s head of research, Eliza Owen, said.
“Data suggests that the Melbourne market has experienced a turn in its market before others. This was evident in the most recent upswing, where Sydney and Melbourne saw peak growth rates around November 2019, while other capital cities continued to see a more moderate but accelerating growth rate.”
Cyclically then, it is not unreasonable to see Melbourne values slip at a greater rate than other capital cities. CoreLogic also suggests that property markets where incomes are higher, households are more indebted and investor activity is high can be more sensitive to changes in the economy.
“High levels of investment are also evident in the Melbourne market, which may be contributing to volatility, though this is present in Sydney, too. ABS finance data shows investor lending has comprised an average 32.3 per cent of total mortgage lending across Victoria for the past five years,” Ms Owen said.
Melbourne property markets may be disproportionately affected by demand shocks in employment and migration, with government figures showing it was hit hardest.
The ABS payroll data shows that Victoria fell by 7.6 per cent, compared with the national average of 6.4 per cent, for the week ending 13 June.
Comparison wise, Sydney’s payroll data fell by 6.1 per cent.
The Melbourne housing market has been the most exposed to demand from net overseas migration. Over 2018-2019, Melbourne had the highest level of net overseas migration, at 77,369. This accounts for 38.2 per cent of net overseas migration to Australia, according to CoreLogic.
Finally, it is worth noting that in the coming months, a second spike in COVID-19 cases across Melbourne will be an added blow to the economy and housing market.
“The longer businesses and households are subject to social distancing, the greater the impact will be on the housing market,” Ms Owen concluded.
RELATED ARTICLES
About the author
About the author
Property
New investment platform Arkus allows Australians to invest in property for just $1
In a groundbreaking move to democratise investment in property-backed mortgage funds, GPS Investment Fund Limited has launched Arkus™, a retail investment platform designed to make investing ...Read more
Property
Help to Buy goes live: What 40,000 new buyers mean for banks, builders and the bottom line
Australia’s Help to Buy has opened, lowering the deposit hurdle to 2 per cent and aiming to support up to 40,000 households over four years. That single policy lever will reverberate through mortgage ...Read more
Property
Australia’s mortgage knife‑fight: investors, first‑home buyers and the new rules of lender competition
The mortgage market is staying hot even as rate relief remains elusive, with investors and first‑home buyers chasing scarce stock and lenders fighting for share on price, speed and digital experienceRead more
Property
Breaking Australia’s three‑property ceiling: the finance‑first playbook for scalable portfolios
Most Australian investors don’t stall at three properties because they run out of ambition — they run out of borrowing capacity. The ceiling is a finance constraint disguised as an asset problem. The ...Read more
Property
Gen Z's secret weapon: Why their homebuying spree could flip Australia's housing market
A surprising share of younger Australians are preparing to buy despite affordability headwinds. One in three Gen Z Australians intend to purchase within a few years and 32 per cent say escaping rent ...Read more
Property
Tasmania’s pet-positive pivot: What landlords, BTR operators and insurers need to do now
Tasmania will soon require landlords to allow pets unless they can prove a valid reason to refuse. This is more than a tenancy tweak; it is a structural signal that the balance of power in rental ...Read more
Property
NSW underquoting crackdown: the compliance reset creating both cost and competitive edge
NSW is moving to sharply increase penalties for misleading price guides, including fines linked to agent commissions and maximum penalties up to $110,000. Behind the headlines sits a more ...Read more
Property
ANZ’s mortgage growth, profit slump: why volume without margin won’t pay the dividends
ANZ lifted home-lending volumes, yet profits fell under the weight of regulatory and restructuring costs—an object lesson in the futility of growth that doesn’t convert to margin and productivityRead more
Property
New investment platform Arkus allows Australians to invest in property for just $1
In a groundbreaking move to democratise investment in property-backed mortgage funds, GPS Investment Fund Limited has launched Arkus™, a retail investment platform designed to make investing ...Read more
Property
Help to Buy goes live: What 40,000 new buyers mean for banks, builders and the bottom line
Australia’s Help to Buy has opened, lowering the deposit hurdle to 2 per cent and aiming to support up to 40,000 households over four years. That single policy lever will reverberate through mortgage ...Read more
Property
Australia’s mortgage knife‑fight: investors, first‑home buyers and the new rules of lender competition
The mortgage market is staying hot even as rate relief remains elusive, with investors and first‑home buyers chasing scarce stock and lenders fighting for share on price, speed and digital experienceRead more
Property
Breaking Australia’s three‑property ceiling: the finance‑first playbook for scalable portfolios
Most Australian investors don’t stall at three properties because they run out of ambition — they run out of borrowing capacity. The ceiling is a finance constraint disguised as an asset problem. The ...Read more
Property
Gen Z's secret weapon: Why their homebuying spree could flip Australia's housing market
A surprising share of younger Australians are preparing to buy despite affordability headwinds. One in three Gen Z Australians intend to purchase within a few years and 32 per cent say escaping rent ...Read more
Property
Tasmania’s pet-positive pivot: What landlords, BTR operators and insurers need to do now
Tasmania will soon require landlords to allow pets unless they can prove a valid reason to refuse. This is more than a tenancy tweak; it is a structural signal that the balance of power in rental ...Read more
Property
NSW underquoting crackdown: the compliance reset creating both cost and competitive edge
NSW is moving to sharply increase penalties for misleading price guides, including fines linked to agent commissions and maximum penalties up to $110,000. Behind the headlines sits a more ...Read more
Property
ANZ’s mortgage growth, profit slump: why volume without margin won’t pay the dividends
ANZ lifted home-lending volumes, yet profits fell under the weight of regulatory and restructuring costs—an object lesson in the futility of growth that doesn’t convert to margin and productivityRead more
