Invest
Why is Melbourne property falling more than everywhere else?
The fallout from COVID-19 has seen Melbourne property markets fall by 2.3 per cent, making it the worst-performing capital city, new research has shown.
Why is Melbourne property falling more than everywhere else?
The fallout from COVID-19 has seen Melbourne property markets fall by 2.3 per cent, making it the worst-performing capital city, new research has shown.
Numbers released in June by CoreLogic show that Melbourne has fallen by almost three times as much as Sydney.
“The results may be surprising, particularly when considering that the Sydney growth rate, which often moves quite closely with Melbourne property, was less than half this rate in the same period (at -0.8 per cent),” CoreLogic’s head of research, Eliza Owen, said.
“Data suggests that the Melbourne market has experienced a turn in its market before others. This was evident in the most recent upswing, where Sydney and Melbourne saw peak growth rates around November 2019, while other capital cities continued to see a more moderate but accelerating growth rate.”
Cyclically then, it is not unreasonable to see Melbourne values slip at a greater rate than other capital cities. CoreLogic also suggests that property markets where incomes are higher, households are more indebted and investor activity is high can be more sensitive to changes in the economy.
“High levels of investment are also evident in the Melbourne market, which may be contributing to volatility, though this is present in Sydney, too. ABS finance data shows investor lending has comprised an average 32.3 per cent of total mortgage lending across Victoria for the past five years,” Ms Owen said.
Melbourne property markets may be disproportionately affected by demand shocks in employment and migration, with government figures showing it was hit hardest.
The ABS payroll data shows that Victoria fell by 7.6 per cent, compared with the national average of 6.4 per cent, for the week ending 13 June.
Comparison wise, Sydney’s payroll data fell by 6.1 per cent.
The Melbourne housing market has been the most exposed to demand from net overseas migration. Over 2018-2019, Melbourne had the highest level of net overseas migration, at 77,369. This accounts for 38.2 per cent of net overseas migration to Australia, according to CoreLogic.
Finally, it is worth noting that in the coming months, a second spike in COVID-19 cases across Melbourne will be an added blow to the economy and housing market.
“The longer businesses and households are subject to social distancing, the greater the impact will be on the housing market,” Ms Owen concluded.
RELATED ARTICLES
-
Trust, technology and triage: what NSW’s ‘name and shame’ signals for real estate governance
-
Vacancy is rising, demand is resilient: A case study in defending yield as Australia’s rental cycle rebalances
-
Don’t lose the deposit: A case study in stopping real estate payment fraud — and the ROI for doing it
About the author
About the author
Property
Trust, technology and triage: what NSW’s ‘name and shame’ signals for real estate governance
NSW’s latest enforcement action on real estate trust accounts isn’t a one-off embarrassment; it’s a stress test of sector governance. With licences suspended and penalties applied, the message is ...Read more
Property
Vacancy is rising, demand is resilient: A case study in defending yield as Australia’s rental cycle rebalances
After a blistering run, Australia’s rental market is loosening at the edges. Vacancy is edging up off historic lows, rent inflation is set to moderate into 2026, yet underlying demand remains ...Read more
Property
Don’t lose the deposit: A case study in stopping real estate payment fraud — and the ROI for doing it
Deposit redirection scams are quietly eroding buyer savings and agency reputations in Australia’s property market. This case study unpacks how a mid-tier real estate group redesigned its settlement ...Read more
Property
The $12m threshold: Why portfolio value, not property count, now defines Australia’s investor elite
The old yardstick of six properties as shorthand for investment success has been overtaken by a harsher reality: in today’s market, elite status is defined by balance-sheet strength, not asset countRead more
Property
From intuition to instrumentation: How a "two-stakeholder" sales playbook lifted close rates and cut cycle times
High-stakes consumer purchases are increasingly joint decisions. When one partner is under-served, deals stall. This case study follows an Australian real estate group that rebuilt its sales motion ...Read more
Property
Selling in 2025: How to spot bad agents fast—and build an ROI-first vendor playbook
In Australia’s property market, choosing the wrong listing agent isn’t just inconvenient—it’s a textbook principal–agent failure that can wipe tens of thousands off your sale outcomeRead more
Property
Selling in 2026: How to de‑risk your agent choice and protect tens of thousands at settlement
Choosing the wrong selling agent isn’t just an inconvenience — it’s a balance‑sheet risk. In a market where digital discovery is concentrated and AI is recasting how listings are priced and promoted, ...Read more
Property
Rate resilience in Australian housing: why scarce supply is overpowering monetary tightening
Australia’s housing market is defying higher borrowing costs because the binding constraint isn’t demand—it’s supply. Brokers report persistent buyer competition and investor repositioning, while ...Read more
Property
Trust, technology and triage: what NSW’s ‘name and shame’ signals for real estate governance
NSW’s latest enforcement action on real estate trust accounts isn’t a one-off embarrassment; it’s a stress test of sector governance. With licences suspended and penalties applied, the message is ...Read more
Property
Vacancy is rising, demand is resilient: A case study in defending yield as Australia’s rental cycle rebalances
After a blistering run, Australia’s rental market is loosening at the edges. Vacancy is edging up off historic lows, rent inflation is set to moderate into 2026, yet underlying demand remains ...Read more
Property
Don’t lose the deposit: A case study in stopping real estate payment fraud — and the ROI for doing it
Deposit redirection scams are quietly eroding buyer savings and agency reputations in Australia’s property market. This case study unpacks how a mid-tier real estate group redesigned its settlement ...Read more
Property
The $12m threshold: Why portfolio value, not property count, now defines Australia’s investor elite
The old yardstick of six properties as shorthand for investment success has been overtaken by a harsher reality: in today’s market, elite status is defined by balance-sheet strength, not asset countRead more
Property
From intuition to instrumentation: How a "two-stakeholder" sales playbook lifted close rates and cut cycle times
High-stakes consumer purchases are increasingly joint decisions. When one partner is under-served, deals stall. This case study follows an Australian real estate group that rebuilt its sales motion ...Read more
Property
Selling in 2025: How to spot bad agents fast—and build an ROI-first vendor playbook
In Australia’s property market, choosing the wrong listing agent isn’t just inconvenient—it’s a textbook principal–agent failure that can wipe tens of thousands off your sale outcomeRead more
Property
Selling in 2026: How to de‑risk your agent choice and protect tens of thousands at settlement
Choosing the wrong selling agent isn’t just an inconvenience — it’s a balance‑sheet risk. In a market where digital discovery is concentrated and AI is recasting how listings are priced and promoted, ...Read more
Property
Rate resilience in Australian housing: why scarce supply is overpowering monetary tightening
Australia’s housing market is defying higher borrowing costs because the binding constraint isn’t demand—it’s supply. Brokers report persistent buyer competition and investor repositioning, while ...Read more
