Invest
Regional centres, smaller capitals picked for ‘modest gains’ in 2019
Investors have been encouraged to look outside the major markets in 2019, with opportunities present in regional centres and smaller capital cities.
Regional centres, smaller capitals picked for ‘modest gains’ in 2019
Investors have been encouraged to look outside the major markets in 2019, with opportunities present in regional centres and smaller capital cities.
Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, has urged investors not to consider current price falls across Sydney and Melbourne as indicative of housing bust.
In his latest analysis, he recommended Australian investors broaden their horizons and look for opportunities in other housing markets this year.
“Other cities and regional centres offer more attractive rental yields than Sydney and Melbourne, and falling prices in Sydney and Melbourne will throw up opportunities at some point,” he said.
Mr Oliver said whilst Sydney and Melbourne remain at risk, with his revised outlook predicting a potential 25 per cent drop in prices to 2020, other cities have not experienced the level of boom enjoyed by the major capitals and therefore are unlikely to crash.
“While prices in other cities are being affected by credit tightening, they were less speculative and so are less vulnerable,” he said.
“Perth and Darwin have already seen prices fall back to decade-ago levels. Other capital cities and regional centres generally didn’t have a boom and so are unlikely to have a bust.
“[For] the rest of Australia, flat prices to modest gains are likely.”
Mr Oliver said the broader outlook suggests an Australiawide housing crash is unlikely, as market fundamentals remain strong.
“Bust is unlikely unless we see much higher interest rates or unemployment – neither of which are expected – driving a sharp rise in defaults and forced property sales or a collapse in immigration, which would collapse demand,” he explained.
“Strong population growth is still driving strong underlying demand for housing.
“While mortgage stress is a risk, it tends to be overstated and is unlikely to be a generalised issue unless interest rates or unemployment shoot higher.”
Mr Oliver encouraged investors to consider their property interests as long-term investments, which still offer value as a source of diversification in portfolios.
“Over the very long term, residential property adjusted for costs has similar returns to Australian shares. So, there is a role for it in investors’ portfolios,” he concluded.
RELATED ARTICLES
Property
Australian property’s quiet pivot: resilience hides a new competitive map
Australia’s housing market remains sturdier than the macro noise suggests, but the sources of resilience have shifted. For operators, the profit pool is migrating from ‘volume at any price’ to ...Read more
Property
Gen Z’s 5% deposit rush: how policy‑driven demand is reshaping Australia’s housing value chain
A government-backed 5% deposit guarantee has triggered a surge in first-home buyer intent among Gen Z, pulling forward demand and resetting competition across banks, brokers and buildersRead more
Property
Cautious bidders, smarter sellers: a Queensland auction case study on repricing risk
Queensland’s auction market has hit a caution cycle as buyers price in higher borrowing costs, global uncertainty and cost-of-living pressure. Clearance softness is forcing agencies to re-engineer ...Read more
Property
Trust, technology and triage: what NSW’s ‘name and shame’ signals for real estate governance
NSW’s latest enforcement action on real estate trust accounts isn’t a one-off embarrassment; it’s a stress test of sector governance. With licences suspended and penalties applied, the message is ...Read more
Property
Vacancy is rising, demand is resilient: A case study in defending yield as Australia’s rental cycle rebalances
After a blistering run, Australia’s rental market is loosening at the edges. Vacancy is edging up off historic lows, rent inflation is set to moderate into 2026, yet underlying demand remains ...Read more
Property
Don’t lose the deposit: A case study in stopping real estate payment fraud — and the ROI for doing it
Deposit redirection scams are quietly eroding buyer savings and agency reputations in Australia’s property market. This case study unpacks how a mid-tier real estate group redesigned its settlement ...Read more
Property
The $12m threshold: Why portfolio value, not property count, now defines Australia’s investor elite
The old yardstick of six properties as shorthand for investment success has been overtaken by a harsher reality: in today’s market, elite status is defined by balance-sheet strength, not asset countRead more
Property
From intuition to instrumentation: How a "two-stakeholder" sales playbook lifted close rates and cut cycle times
High-stakes consumer purchases are increasingly joint decisions. When one partner is under-served, deals stall. This case study follows an Australian real estate group that rebuilt its sales motion ...Read more
Property
Australian property’s quiet pivot: resilience hides a new competitive map
Australia’s housing market remains sturdier than the macro noise suggests, but the sources of resilience have shifted. For operators, the profit pool is migrating from ‘volume at any price’ to ...Read more
Property
Gen Z’s 5% deposit rush: how policy‑driven demand is reshaping Australia’s housing value chain
A government-backed 5% deposit guarantee has triggered a surge in first-home buyer intent among Gen Z, pulling forward demand and resetting competition across banks, brokers and buildersRead more
Property
Cautious bidders, smarter sellers: a Queensland auction case study on repricing risk
Queensland’s auction market has hit a caution cycle as buyers price in higher borrowing costs, global uncertainty and cost-of-living pressure. Clearance softness is forcing agencies to re-engineer ...Read more
Property
Trust, technology and triage: what NSW’s ‘name and shame’ signals for real estate governance
NSW’s latest enforcement action on real estate trust accounts isn’t a one-off embarrassment; it’s a stress test of sector governance. With licences suspended and penalties applied, the message is ...Read more
Property
Vacancy is rising, demand is resilient: A case study in defending yield as Australia’s rental cycle rebalances
After a blistering run, Australia’s rental market is loosening at the edges. Vacancy is edging up off historic lows, rent inflation is set to moderate into 2026, yet underlying demand remains ...Read more
Property
Don’t lose the deposit: A case study in stopping real estate payment fraud — and the ROI for doing it
Deposit redirection scams are quietly eroding buyer savings and agency reputations in Australia’s property market. This case study unpacks how a mid-tier real estate group redesigned its settlement ...Read more
Property
The $12m threshold: Why portfolio value, not property count, now defines Australia’s investor elite
The old yardstick of six properties as shorthand for investment success has been overtaken by a harsher reality: in today’s market, elite status is defined by balance-sheet strength, not asset countRead more
Property
From intuition to instrumentation: How a "two-stakeholder" sales playbook lifted close rates and cut cycle times
High-stakes consumer purchases are increasingly joint decisions. When one partner is under-served, deals stall. This case study follows an Australian real estate group that rebuilt its sales motion ...Read more
