Invest
Regional centres, smaller capitals picked for ‘modest gains’ in 2019
Investors have been encouraged to look outside the major markets in 2019, with opportunities present in regional centres and smaller capital cities.
Regional centres, smaller capitals picked for ‘modest gains’ in 2019
Investors have been encouraged to look outside the major markets in 2019, with opportunities present in regional centres and smaller capital cities.
Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, has urged investors not to consider current price falls across Sydney and Melbourne as indicative of housing bust.
In his latest analysis, he recommended Australian investors broaden their horizons and look for opportunities in other housing markets this year.
“Other cities and regional centres offer more attractive rental yields than Sydney and Melbourne, and falling prices in Sydney and Melbourne will throw up opportunities at some point,” he said.
Mr Oliver said whilst Sydney and Melbourne remain at risk, with his revised outlook predicting a potential 25 per cent drop in prices to 2020, other cities have not experienced the level of boom enjoyed by the major capitals and therefore are unlikely to crash.
“While prices in other cities are being affected by credit tightening, they were less speculative and so are less vulnerable,” he said.
“Perth and Darwin have already seen prices fall back to decade-ago levels. Other capital cities and regional centres generally didn’t have a boom and so are unlikely to have a bust.
“[For] the rest of Australia, flat prices to modest gains are likely.”
Mr Oliver said the broader outlook suggests an Australiawide housing crash is unlikely, as market fundamentals remain strong.
“Bust is unlikely unless we see much higher interest rates or unemployment – neither of which are expected – driving a sharp rise in defaults and forced property sales or a collapse in immigration, which would collapse demand,” he explained.
“Strong population growth is still driving strong underlying demand for housing.
“While mortgage stress is a risk, it tends to be overstated and is unlikely to be a generalised issue unless interest rates or unemployment shoot higher.”
Mr Oliver encouraged investors to consider their property interests as long-term investments, which still offer value as a source of diversification in portfolios.
“Over the very long term, residential property adjusted for costs has similar returns to Australian shares. So, there is a role for it in investors’ portfolios,” he concluded.
RELATED ARTICLES
Property
LJ Hooker Lake Macquarie makes a splash with Belmont buy as real estate consolidation looms
LJ Hooker Lake Macquarie’s acquisition of the Belmont office, including its rent roll, is less about shopfronts and more about balance‑sheet resilience. In a market where listings ebb and flow with ...Read more
Property
Twice the demand: the case study behind Melbourne’s first‑home buyer surge
Melbourne has quietly engineered one of Australia’s most consequential housing turnarounds, with first‑home buyer demand running at roughly double the national pace and four of the top five buyer ...Read more
Property
First‑home buyers now anchor Australia’s mortgage growth — but the risk maths is changing
Great Southern Bank’s revelation that nearly one in three of its new mortgages went to first‑home buyers is not an outlier. It is the leading edge of a broader market realignment powered by government ...Read more
Property
Home guarantee scheme shake-up challenges Australia’s housing market players
From 1 October 2025, the expanded Home Guarantee Scheme (HGS) materially widens what first-home buyers can purchase and where. By sharply lifting price caps and relaxing eligibility settings, the ...Read more
Property
GSB’s first‑home buyer play: turning policy tailwinds into market share
Great Southern Bank’s latest results show that nearly one in three of its new mortgages now go to first‑home buyers—evidence of a fast‑moving market reshaped by government guarantees, easing rates and ...Read more
Property
Why investors are fleeing and renters are scrambling in Australia's housing maze
Australia’s rental market is tightening even as individual landlords sell down. New data points to a multi‑year investor retreat tied to higher holding costs and regulatory uncertainty, while prices ...Read more
Property
Australia's 5% deposit guarantee: Unlocking gains while balancing risks in the market share race
Can a bigger government guarantee fix housing access without fuelling prices? Australia is about to find out. The Albanese government’s expanded 5% deposit pathway aims to help 70,000 buyers, remove ...Read more
Property
Australia's bold move the 5% deposit scheme shaking up the housing market
Can a government guarantee replace lenders mortgage insurance without inflating prices or risk? Canberra’s accelerated 5% deposit scheme is a bold demand-side nudge in a supply‑constrained marketRead more
Property
LJ Hooker Lake Macquarie makes a splash with Belmont buy as real estate consolidation looms
LJ Hooker Lake Macquarie’s acquisition of the Belmont office, including its rent roll, is less about shopfronts and more about balance‑sheet resilience. In a market where listings ebb and flow with ...Read more
Property
Twice the demand: the case study behind Melbourne’s first‑home buyer surge
Melbourne has quietly engineered one of Australia’s most consequential housing turnarounds, with first‑home buyer demand running at roughly double the national pace and four of the top five buyer ...Read more
Property
First‑home buyers now anchor Australia’s mortgage growth — but the risk maths is changing
Great Southern Bank’s revelation that nearly one in three of its new mortgages went to first‑home buyers is not an outlier. It is the leading edge of a broader market realignment powered by government ...Read more
Property
Home guarantee scheme shake-up challenges Australia’s housing market players
From 1 October 2025, the expanded Home Guarantee Scheme (HGS) materially widens what first-home buyers can purchase and where. By sharply lifting price caps and relaxing eligibility settings, the ...Read more
Property
GSB’s first‑home buyer play: turning policy tailwinds into market share
Great Southern Bank’s latest results show that nearly one in three of its new mortgages now go to first‑home buyers—evidence of a fast‑moving market reshaped by government guarantees, easing rates and ...Read more
Property
Why investors are fleeing and renters are scrambling in Australia's housing maze
Australia’s rental market is tightening even as individual landlords sell down. New data points to a multi‑year investor retreat tied to higher holding costs and regulatory uncertainty, while prices ...Read more
Property
Australia's 5% deposit guarantee: Unlocking gains while balancing risks in the market share race
Can a bigger government guarantee fix housing access without fuelling prices? Australia is about to find out. The Albanese government’s expanded 5% deposit pathway aims to help 70,000 buyers, remove ...Read more
Property
Australia's bold move the 5% deposit scheme shaking up the housing market
Can a government guarantee replace lenders mortgage insurance without inflating prices or risk? Canberra’s accelerated 5% deposit scheme is a bold demand-side nudge in a supply‑constrained marketRead more
