Invest
Property markets reaching saturation point
The number of dwellings in capital cities is eclipsing or beginning to eclipse Australian population growth, an economic forecaster has warned.
Property markets reaching saturation point
The number of dwellings in capital cities is eclipsing or beginning to eclipse Australian population growth, an economic forecaster has warned.
BIS Shrapnel says the recent home building boom expected to peak this year differs from previous peaks.
“Investors and foreigners are driving this and the preference away from detached houses towards apartments. It’s a very different boom, so it’s a question of what happens next,” BIS Shrapnel’s associate director of building forecasting Kim Hawtrey told nestegg.com.au.
“We're probably going to touch or come close [to] touching 240,000 dwelling commencements at the peak of this boom, and building will probably stay at a pretty healthy level, around 200,000 commencements for the next few years,” Mr Hawtrey said.
“When you’ve had such a unique home building boom, is it sustainable? Is it driven by fundamentals? Are we building far too much than we should?”
For many Australian capitals, that rate of new dwellings is outpacing or will outpace the number of Australians who require them.
“We’ve had such strong population growth so [the rate of building] is justified, particularly somewhere like Sydney where for a decade we simply didn’t build enough dwellings,” Mr Hawtrey said.
“It’s justified building above the rate of household formation, above the rate of population growth and we can afford to do that for a number of years, particularly in Sydney.”
While construction has yet to reach saturation point in Sydney, other cities have already surpassed it.
“In the other markets, we’re nearing or already at the point of saturation, where the number of homes for people to live in is at or increasingly above the number of people to live in them,” Mr Hawtrey said.
“Certainly, in Perth and Adelaide we see that, while Brisbane is probably at that point now. Melbourne is approaching that point.
“Sydney is not yet at that point. We think Sydney will go stronger for longer just because it’s got more people to house basically.”
RELATED ARTICLES
Property
Multigenerational living is moving mainstream: how agents, developers and lenders can monetise the shift
Australia’s quiet housing revolution is no longer a niche lifestyle choice; it’s a structural shift in demand that will reward property businesses prepared to redesign product, pricing and ...Read more
Property
Prestige property, precision choice: a case study in selecting the right agent when millions are at stake
In Australia’s top-tier housing market, the wrong agent choice can quietly erase six figures from a sale. Privacy protocols, discreet buyer networks and data-savvy marketing have become the new ...Read more
Property
From ‘ugly’ to alpha: Turning outdated Australian homes into high‑yield assets
In a tight listings market, outdated properties aren’t dead weight—they’re mispriced optionality. Agencies and vendors that industrialise light‑touch refurbishment, behavioural marketing and ...Read more
Property
The 2026 Investor Playbook: Rental Tailwinds, City Divergence and the Tech-Led Operations Advantage
Rental income looks set to do the heavy lifting for investors in 2026, but not every capital city will move in lockstep. Industry veteran John McGrath tips a stronger rental year and a Melbourne ...Read more
Property
Prestige property, precision choice: Data, discretion and regulation now decide million‑dollar outcomes
In Australia’s prestige housing market, the selling agent is no longer a mere intermediary but a strategic supplier whose choices can shift outcomes by seven figures. The differentiators are no longer ...Read more
Property
The new battleground in housing: how first-home buyer policy is reshaping Australia’s entry-level market
Government-backed guarantees and stamp duty concessions have pushed fresh demand into the bottom of Australia’s price ladder, lifting values and compressing selling times in entry-level segmentsRead more
Property
Property 2026: Why measured moves will beat the market
In 2026, Australian property success will be won by investors who privilege resilience over velocity. The market is fragmenting by suburb and asset type, financing conditions remain tight, and ...Read more
Property
Entry-level property is winning: How first home buyer programs are reshaping demand, pricing power and strategy
Lower-priced homes are appreciating faster as government support channels demand into the entry tier. For developers, lenders and marketers, this is not a blip—it’s a structural reweighting of demand ...Read more
Property
Multigenerational living is moving mainstream: how agents, developers and lenders can monetise the shift
Australia’s quiet housing revolution is no longer a niche lifestyle choice; it’s a structural shift in demand that will reward property businesses prepared to redesign product, pricing and ...Read more
Property
Prestige property, precision choice: a case study in selecting the right agent when millions are at stake
In Australia’s top-tier housing market, the wrong agent choice can quietly erase six figures from a sale. Privacy protocols, discreet buyer networks and data-savvy marketing have become the new ...Read more
Property
From ‘ugly’ to alpha: Turning outdated Australian homes into high‑yield assets
In a tight listings market, outdated properties aren’t dead weight—they’re mispriced optionality. Agencies and vendors that industrialise light‑touch refurbishment, behavioural marketing and ...Read more
Property
The 2026 Investor Playbook: Rental Tailwinds, City Divergence and the Tech-Led Operations Advantage
Rental income looks set to do the heavy lifting for investors in 2026, but not every capital city will move in lockstep. Industry veteran John McGrath tips a stronger rental year and a Melbourne ...Read more
Property
Prestige property, precision choice: Data, discretion and regulation now decide million‑dollar outcomes
In Australia’s prestige housing market, the selling agent is no longer a mere intermediary but a strategic supplier whose choices can shift outcomes by seven figures. The differentiators are no longer ...Read more
Property
The new battleground in housing: how first-home buyer policy is reshaping Australia’s entry-level market
Government-backed guarantees and stamp duty concessions have pushed fresh demand into the bottom of Australia’s price ladder, lifting values and compressing selling times in entry-level segmentsRead more
Property
Property 2026: Why measured moves will beat the market
In 2026, Australian property success will be won by investors who privilege resilience over velocity. The market is fragmenting by suburb and asset type, financing conditions remain tight, and ...Read more
Property
Entry-level property is winning: How first home buyer programs are reshaping demand, pricing power and strategy
Lower-priced homes are appreciating faster as government support channels demand into the entry tier. For developers, lenders and marketers, this is not a blip—it’s a structural reweighting of demand ...Read more
