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On this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja Garaca Djurdjevic and three experts discuss the latest in equities, property investing and super.

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Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, chats about the latest in property, including CoreLogic’s latest findings, which suggest national home values have increased at the fastest pace in over 30 years, and why he isn’t quite sure this is the case.

RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, talks about soaring travel stocks, the rising popularity of NFTs and what they are, as well as the sudden meltdown of Archegos Capital Management.

And lastly, tax and super guru Timothy Munro gives his thoughts on Paul Keating’s early release of super verdict, as well as an overview of life after JobKeeper.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured on the next episode.

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Home values up 30% (or are they); NFTs taking the world by storm, and why Keatin...

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Property crash predictions ‘wide of the mark’

By Staff reporter

March 01 2016
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Invest

Property crash predictions ‘wide of the mark’

By Staff reporter
March 01 2016

One of Australia’s leading economists has responded to dire predictions for Australia’s property market and recent reports claiming that Australian banks fail to check proof of income when processing loan applications.

Property crash predictions ‘wide of the mark’

By Staff reporter

March 01 2016
Share

In a research note published on Saturday, AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver responded to last week’s Big Short reports – saying foreign hedge funds and various commentators have been predicting a property crash for more than a decade that have been “wide of the mark”.

“Australian home prices are likely to see yet another five to 10 per cent cyclical fall at some point in the next few years and, yes, home prices are overvalued, posing a downside risk, but a 50 per cent crash is unlikely,” Mr Oliver said.

“The latest crash call aired on 60 Minutes has raised nothing that wasn’t already well known,” he said.

“Australian property is no more overvalued than it was a decade or so ago. The ratio of household debt to income is about the same as it was prior to the GFC, but interest costs have collapsed and there are no signs that Australians are having trouble servicing their debts.”

Mr Oliver admits there has been “some easing in lending standards”, but he does not accept that Australian banks are not regularly checking for proof of income when processing loan applications, “particularly with APRA breathing down their necks on ‘bubble’ worries”.

“More fundamentally, Australia has not seen the growth in low-doc and sub-prime loans that don’t even require people to lie about their lack of income, which were central to the US housing crisis that triggered the GFC,” he said.

“To get a crash we will either need a massive rise in interest rates, which is unlikely because the RBA is not stupid, or a deep recession in the economy, which seems unlikely," he added.

“Seems to me that some people have just seen The Big Short and want to be film stars – or least are desperate to find the next big short. The trouble is that shorting Australian banks is becoming a rather crowded trade.”

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