According to SQM’s Housing Boom and Bust Report 2020, Sydney and Melbourne are tipped to outgrow the rest, with the base case forecast for dwelling prices in Sydney tipped to grow by 10 to 14 per cent, while Melbourne could grow at between 11 and 15 per cent.
The managing director of SQM Research, Louis Christopher, believes the economic factors that drove markets over the last six months will continue into 2020.
“Sydney and Melbourne grew following on from the federal election, interest rate cuts, the loosening of credit restrictions and ongoing strong population growth rates.”
“These factors are expected to drive the national housing market into 2020,” Mr Christopher said.
Despite the two largest cities being tipped to grow strongly in the next year, Mr Christopher believes other capital cities could provide investors with better investment opportunities.
He said Melbourne and Sydney are growing from an already high point, meaning better value can be found in other markets.
“Long term, our two largest housing markets look vulnerable and forever reliant on cheap credit. Housing debt, while falling compared to GDP over 2019, is still very high. Better value can definitely found elsewhere such as Perth and Brisbane,” Mr Christopher said.
As a result of the improved international outlook and an existing recovering in mining investment, the city of Perth will finally record price rises next year after a prolonged housing downturn.
The forecast is for Perth dwelling prices to rise between 3 to 6 per cent.
Brisbane will also benefit from the recovery in mining investment and should also record price rises in the order of 3 to 6 per cent.
Darwin is the only city expected to record price declines. The forecast is for prices to fall between -2 to -5 per cent, as the Darwin economy continues to struggle and excess stock for sale continues to weaken the local market.
About the author
