Invest
Three reasons not to panic over changing economic conditions
A number of global factors have contributed to bond prices falling in the last week, but investors shouldn’t be overly concerned by the changing state of play, according to AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver.
Three reasons not to panic over changing economic conditions
A number of global factors have contributed to bond prices falling in the last week, but investors shouldn’t be overly concerned by the changing state of play, according to AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver.
Central banks in numerous countries have started displaying a “more hawkish tone”, Mr Oliver said, meaning they are moving to raise interest rates and tighten their economic policy.
US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has indicated that it is now appropriate for interest rates to gradually rise, while Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, has said “the threat of deflation is gone”, Mr Oliver noted.
Additionally, the rally that bonds have enjoyed since the start of the year has “arguably gone a bit too far”, Mr Oliver said, leaving the asset class vulnerable to a drop in price.
However, he gave three reasons why investors shouldn’t panic too much by the drop in price.
The change in central bank attitude just matches market improvements
The declining likelihood of deflation and improving economic indicators that have seen bond prices take a tumble are actually good news for markets, Mr Oliver said, noting that global trade has increased, jobs markets have tightened and confidence is improving.
Monetary policy tightening is likely to be gradual
Underlying inflation is weak, as years of “below-trend growth” has left spare capacity in the market, and without “significant inflation pressures” present, central banks will presumably act gradually, he said.
Monetary policy is still a long way from ‘tight’
The US Fed’s interest rate hikes over the last two years have helped to tighten global monetary policy, but Mr Oliver said it’s still a long way from the levels that would bring “the bull market in shares to an end”.
RELATED ARTICLES
Property
Young buyers poised for a comeback as 5% First Home Guarantee takes effect
In a move set to reshape the Australian property landscape, the government’s revamped First Home Guarantee is poised to open the doors of homeownership to a new generation of young AustraliansRead more
Property
AFG Securities waives settlement fees for first-home buyers, signalling strategic shift
In a strategic move aimed at easing the financial burden on first-home buyers, AFG Securities has announced the elimination of settlement fees on select loans, potentially saving customers up to $699Read more
Property
From trust woes to wealth: Australian agencies' secret to boosting prices
In Australia’s residential market, trust is no longer a nice-to-have—it’s a pricing variable. Persistent distrust of real estate agents is depressing vendor outcomes and inviting regulatory heat, but ...Read more
Property
Reality check for first home buyers: Affordable suburbs with 5% deposit
In a significant development for Australian first home buyers, a new property search tool from Aussie Home Loans is set to transform the way prospective homeowners approach the market. As the Federal ...Read more
Property
Trust as a performance multiplier in Australia's real estate market
In Australia’s A$10–11 trillion housing market, trust is emerging as a crucial factor that sellers and agencies can no longer afford to overlook. Traditionally viewed as a soft metric, trust is now ...Read more
Property
LJ Hooker Lake Macquarie makes a splash with Belmont buy as real estate consolidation looms
LJ Hooker Lake Macquarie’s acquisition of the Belmont office, including its rent roll, is less about shopfronts and more about balance‑sheet resilience. In a market where listings ebb and flow with ...Read more
Property
Twice the demand: the case study behind Melbourne’s first‑home buyer surge
Melbourne has quietly engineered one of Australia’s most consequential housing turnarounds, with first‑home buyer demand running at roughly double the national pace and four of the top five buyer ...Read more
Property
First‑home buyers now anchor Australia’s mortgage growth — but the risk maths is changing
Great Southern Bank’s revelation that nearly one in three of its new mortgages went to first‑home buyers is not an outlier. It is the leading edge of a broader market realignment powered by government ...Read more
Property
Young buyers poised for a comeback as 5% First Home Guarantee takes effect
In a move set to reshape the Australian property landscape, the government’s revamped First Home Guarantee is poised to open the doors of homeownership to a new generation of young AustraliansRead more
Property
AFG Securities waives settlement fees for first-home buyers, signalling strategic shift
In a strategic move aimed at easing the financial burden on first-home buyers, AFG Securities has announced the elimination of settlement fees on select loans, potentially saving customers up to $699Read more
Property
From trust woes to wealth: Australian agencies' secret to boosting prices
In Australia’s residential market, trust is no longer a nice-to-have—it’s a pricing variable. Persistent distrust of real estate agents is depressing vendor outcomes and inviting regulatory heat, but ...Read more
Property
Reality check for first home buyers: Affordable suburbs with 5% deposit
In a significant development for Australian first home buyers, a new property search tool from Aussie Home Loans is set to transform the way prospective homeowners approach the market. As the Federal ...Read more
Property
Trust as a performance multiplier in Australia's real estate market
In Australia’s A$10–11 trillion housing market, trust is emerging as a crucial factor that sellers and agencies can no longer afford to overlook. Traditionally viewed as a soft metric, trust is now ...Read more
Property
LJ Hooker Lake Macquarie makes a splash with Belmont buy as real estate consolidation looms
LJ Hooker Lake Macquarie’s acquisition of the Belmont office, including its rent roll, is less about shopfronts and more about balance‑sheet resilience. In a market where listings ebb and flow with ...Read more
Property
Twice the demand: the case study behind Melbourne’s first‑home buyer surge
Melbourne has quietly engineered one of Australia’s most consequential housing turnarounds, with first‑home buyer demand running at roughly double the national pace and four of the top five buyer ...Read more
Property
First‑home buyers now anchor Australia’s mortgage growth — but the risk maths is changing
Great Southern Bank’s revelation that nearly one in three of its new mortgages went to first‑home buyers is not an outlier. It is the leading edge of a broader market realignment powered by government ...Read more
