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On this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja Garaca Djurdjevic and three experts discuss the ongoing NSW lockdown, the ins and outs of the COVID-19 Disaster Payments, and how Brisbane’s successful Olympics bid could impact equities and property.

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Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, chats about the impact of the lockdowns on the property market, what the 2032 Olympics could mean for Brisbane’s market, and whether APRA might need to pull the handbrake to cool house price growth.

RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, delves into how the Olympics and other major events affect stock returns and what the implications are for investors.

And lastly, tax and super guru Timothy Munro talks about the near-record super returns, the COVID-19 Disaster Payments and what they mean for your super.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured on the next episode.

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Investors urged to be cautious of overstated US growth projections

By Stephanie Aikins

November 26 2018
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Invest

Investors urged to be cautious of overstated US growth projections

By Stephanie Aikins
November 26 2018

Investors should be wary of projected US growth as optimism regarding inflation and the subsequent trajectory of the Federal Funds Rate may be overstated, investment managers say.

Investors urged to be cautious of overstated US growth projections

By Stephanie Aikins

November 26 2018
Share

Investors should be wary of projected US growth as optimism regarding inflation and the subsequent trajectory of the Federal Funds Rate may be overstated, investment managers say.

According to Western Asset chief investment officer Ken Leech, the Federal Reserve’s upbeat outlook about growth, which seems to be shared by the bond market, may result in further volatility should a rate hike be implemented ahead of the market being ready.

“We view optimism about US growth as a bit overdone… we expect [it] to slow slightly next year with inflation remaining moderate,” he says.

“Global monetary policy will continue to play a major role in the recovery… We expect more volatility such as that we saw this year should central banks misjudge the market or mishandle communication regarding policy moves.”

Global investment company Legg Mason Investment says the real pace of economic growth is likely to dictate the movements of interest rates in 2019.

Although the 5-year, 5-year Forward Rate of the US Treasury mirrors such positive sentiment, suggesting a rate scenario significantly higher than the Fed’s current estimate of 3.1 per cent in 2019, investment managers say this might be reflective of optimistic bias inspired by strong US growth this year.

Francis Scotland, director of global macro research at Brandywine Global, says there are reasons to believe that growth could be more moderate as fiscal stimulus dwindles and rate hikes begin to sting.

“[T]he Trump tax cutting agenda has complicated the issue [of rate normalization] by rocketing American GDP growth higher, which could easily bias/pressure the Fed into thinking a rapid normalization is appropriate,” he says.

“But there are a host of reasons for believing that normalization will play out over a very long time frame.”

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