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On this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja Garaca Djurdjevic and three experts discuss the ongoing NSW lockdown, the ins and outs of the COVID-19 Disaster Payments, and how Brisbane’s successful Olympics bid could impact equities and property.

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Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, chats about the impact of the lockdowns on the property market, what the 2032 Olympics could mean for Brisbane’s market, and whether APRA might need to pull the handbrake to cool house price growth.

RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, delves into how the Olympics and other major events affect stock returns and what the implications are for investors.

And lastly, tax and super guru Timothy Munro talks about the near-record super returns, the COVID-19 Disaster Payments and what they mean for your super.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured on the next episode.

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The Olympic effect on property and equity investors; COVID-19 Disaster Payments ...

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There is $17.5 billion in lost and unclaimed super across ...

Invest

Investment returns hitting GFC territory

By Taylee Lewis

March 15 2016
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Invest

Investment returns hitting GFC territory

By Taylee Lewis
March 15 2016

New research has predicted “compressed market returns” over the medium term, as the current outlook for equities and bonds nears post-GFC lows.

Investment returns hitting GFC territory

By Taylee Lewis

March 15 2016
Share

New research has predicted “compressed market returns” over the medium term, as the current outlook for equities and bonds nears post-GFC lows.

In its latest Capital Market Assumptions report, the BlackRock Investment Institute said bonds and equities will likely deliver compressed returns over the next five years, pulled down by stretched valuations and moderate economic growth.

According to the report, the five-year expected return for US large-caps is 4.3 per cent, with US small-caps delivering an expected 4.8 per cent. Emerging markets equities, from a US perspective, will likely deliver 6.5 per cent.

Further, from a European standpoint, global small-caps are set to return 4.6 per cent, with Economic Monetary Union (EMU) large-caps delivering 6.0 per cent. A bright spot remains in global private equity, expected to return 7.5 per cent.

In terms of earnings trends, the report estimates earnings in the US and Japan to be above their long-term average. However, emerging markets and Europe will come in below trend.

The report said equities are set to outperform fixed income in the medium term.

“[The report's] economic base case and the valuation gap between equities and bonds support the case for strong performance from equities relative to fixed income over the next five years," it said.

US cash, the report noted, is expected to return 1.5 per cent over the medium term. Global ex-US treasuries are set to deliver 1.0 per cent, US credit (all maturities) 2.7 per cent, US treasuries (all maturities) 1.5 per cent and US dollar emerging markets debt 4.6 per cent.

EMU corporate bonds will likely deliver 0.5 per cent, EMU cash 0.0 per cent and EMU (all maturities) 0.1 per cent.

BlackRock’s long-term assumptions, however, remain more positive than those for the medium term.

Notably, “10-year-plus capital market assumptions are based on normalised valuations and interest rate levels, and are driven by five risk premia: equity, duration, inflation, credit and illiquidity", the report stated.

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