Invest
Housing construction falls to post-GST low
The number of houses being built has experienced its most significant fall since the introduction of the GST, which is causing the national economy to stall, new analysis has found.
Housing construction falls to post-GST low
The number of houses being built has experienced its most significant fall since the introduction of the GST, which is causing the national economy to stall, new analysis has found.
According to AMP’s Econosights, the last home price boom (from 2012 to mid-2017) lifted the price by nearly 150 per cent, although the fund managers warn the next upswing will not be as large.
AMP’s senior economist, Diana Mousina, believes that despite previously strong gains being unlikely, it still provides an attractive investment opportunity for investors.
“Despite our expectations for moderate capital and rental growth in housing nationally over the next few years, the favourable tax treatment of housing in Australia still makes it an attractive investment, especially while bond yields are so low,” Ms Mousina said.
AMP Capital believes a number of factors will stop houses reaching previous growth cycles, as Australians adapt to new levels of debt.
“There are a number of factors [that] will limit home price growth, which include: higher household debt to income ratios, tighter bank lending standards, more unit supply to enter into Sydney and Melbourne property markets and a weak economic backdrop,” Ms Mousina said.
While short-term growth is expected to be around 10 per cent in 2020 over the medium terms, houses will grow moderately, according to Ms Mousina.
“After 2020, we expect price growth to be more moderate, around 5 per cent per annum. The lift in home prices is also extending regionally with moderate gains in Brisbane, Hobart and Canberra. Perth prices are finally stabilising after years of declines, while Darwin prices are still declining,” Ms Mousina said.
Overall, the growth in the housing market is expected to still have an impact on inequality, despite growth slowing in 2021.
“While low interest rates have improved housing serviceability in Australia over recent years, affordability concerns are still an underlying issue, especially in Sydney and Melbourne and could become an issue when interest rates eventually start rising again,” Ms Mousina said.
The underlying lack of supply, which is helping to grow housing prices, is not just having an impact on the prices of property but the economy at large, AMP’s insights also found.
“The recent housing construction cycle peaked in 2018. Building approvals are now 60 per cent below their 2018 peak levels. At its high, new housing construction accounted for 6 per cent of GDP, and we expect it to bottom at 5 per cent of GDP in mid-2020, which means a total 1 percentage point detraction from GDP growth,” Ms Mousina concluded.
About the author
About the author
Property
Australia's housing market is entering a ‘broad-based correction phase’
Westpac believes the housing market downturn is now underway. ...Read more
Property
ANZ now expects house prices will end the year lower
With higher interest rates on the horizon, the bank is forecasting larger house price declines than previously expected. ...Read more
Property
Which capital cities are most attractive to property investors?
A new survey has suggested that investor attention is shifting away from Australia’s two largest capital cities. ...Read more
Property
Market uncertainty fails to discourage foreign property investors
While interest from foreign investors in Australian property has remained strong, HLB Mann Judd warned that tax increases could see demand shift to other markets. ...Read more
Property
Regional renters forced to spend more of their income than ever before
Renters in regional areas are spending nearly as much on rent as home owners are spending on mortgage repayments. ...Read more
Property
Aussie home buyers now need to save for over 11 years for a deposit
Since early 2020, the time needed to save for a deposit has increased by more than two years. ...Read more
Property
HSBC forecasts 2023 house price decline of up to 10%
The firm had previously predicted a modest rise for house prices next year. ...Read more
Property
Perth house prices continue climbing to a record high
While growth may have come to an end in Sydney and Melbourne, Perth house prices are still on the rise. ...Read more
Wrapping up an eventful 2021
Listen now
What Omicron means for property, and are units right for first-time buyers? What is equity crowdfunding? Are industry super funds tapping into member funds to save their skins?
Listen now
Will housing affordability improve in 2022? Will buy now, pay later become the norm? Why are Aussies staying in failing super products?
Listen now
Who really benefits from crypto ETFs? How will the RBA respond to rising inflation? Could a mandate help address unpaid super?
Listen now
Property
Australia's housing market is entering a ‘broad-based correction phase’
Westpac believes the housing market downturn is now underway. ...Read more
Property
ANZ now expects house prices will end the year lower
With higher interest rates on the horizon, the bank is forecasting larger house price declines than previously expected. ...Read more
Property
Which capital cities are most attractive to property investors?
A new survey has suggested that investor attention is shifting away from Australia’s two largest capital cities. ...Read more
Property
Market uncertainty fails to discourage foreign property investors
While interest from foreign investors in Australian property has remained strong, HLB Mann Judd warned that tax increases could see demand shift to other markets. ...Read more
Property
Regional renters forced to spend more of their income than ever before
Renters in regional areas are spending nearly as much on rent as home owners are spending on mortgage repayments. ...Read more
Property
Aussie home buyers now need to save for over 11 years for a deposit
Since early 2020, the time needed to save for a deposit has increased by more than two years. ...Read more
Property
HSBC forecasts 2023 house price decline of up to 10%
The firm had previously predicted a modest rise for house prices next year. ...Read more
Property
Perth house prices continue climbing to a record high
While growth may have come to an end in Sydney and Melbourne, Perth house prices are still on the rise. ...Read more
More articles
Website Notifications
Get notifications in real-time for staying up to date with content that matters to you.
