Invest
Housing, China put us at risk of economic ‘pneumonia’
The confluence of Australia’s softening housing market and Chinese trade and stockmarket problems is the “fox in the henhouse”, a fund manager has warned.
Housing, China put us at risk of economic ‘pneumonia’
The confluence of Australia’s softening housing market and Chinese trade and stockmarket problems is the “fox in the henhouse”, a fund manager has warned.
Speaking in a recent insight, Grant Samuel Funds Management adviser Stephen Miller said Australia’s “remarkable run” of 27 recession-free years is facing challenges, mainly originating from a highly leveraged housing market. However, this same relationship means that if China sneezes, “Australia may well catch ‘pneumonia’”.
He explained, “The real ‘fox in the henhouse’ scenario is the potential for a China slowdown to afflict the domestic economy at the same time that household debt/housing excess was working its way through the system.
“The consequences would be a dramatically lower Australian dollar, an underperforming stockmarket and an extended period of low interest rates and bond yields.
“In other words, now may be the time for investors to think about a particularly challenging return environment from domestic financial assets!”
Noting that he’s not the first to make “dire prognostications” of housing and China risk, Mr Miller reminded investors that the boy who cried wolf did end up being correct.
He argued the headwinds coming from excessive household debt are “incontestable” and the cocktail of high household debt and high house prices has rendered the Australian economy “vulnerable to potential shocks”.
The next question is what could trigger a fall, Mr Miller said, pointing to curbs on lending and the risk of changes to investor incentives like negative gearing discounts.
“There are further negative feedback loops; the big four banks comprise approximately 20 per cent of the ASX200,” he said.
“Greater regulatory constraints, less lending activity and further (potentially significant) declines in house prices might further constrain bank profitability and create uncertainty around the sustainability of current bank dividends, leading to diminished holdings of bank stocks by the banks’ large retail investor base.”
These trends alone are unlikely to trigger a recession, however trouble in China could, Mr Miller warned.
Australia has China to thank for its 27 years of economic stability as it is “by far and away” one of the most highly leveraged to China. However, this same link could be its undoing.
“That leverage has come about from China’s extraordinary demand for Australia’s commodity exports, which has sustained Australia’s GDP and income growth through challenging periods. The downside is that were China to ‘sneeze’ then Australia may well catch ‘pneumonia’,” he said.
“Were this to occur when the consequences of housing excess were working their way through the system, then the 27-year dream run may well come to an end. In this context too, the recent emergence of diplomatic tensions between Australia and China may have adverse economic consequences.”
Property
9 questions to ask when buying a CBD apartment for the first time
If you’ve been eyeing CBD apartments, the new year is the ideal time to start something new that could help you take one step closer to your dream – like finally buying your own home. ...Read more
Property
The 20 Australian suburbs where it’s hardest to rent
New research has revealed just how tight some of Australia’s rental markets have become. ...Read more
Property
8 hacks to boost property value without breaking the bank
With record-high property prices all over the country, more and more property owners have been contemplating selling their property. If you’re one of those intending to sell, here are some simple ...Read more
Property
Houses v Apartment: Which is the better investment?
Here are the top things to keep in mind when choosing an apartment versus a house for an investment. ...Read more
Property
4 trends to leverage in your 2022 investing journey
After a year of staggering price growth across Australia, many investors might be wondering: where do we go from here? ...Read more
Property
2021 delivered the biggest house price rise in decades
Property prices surged in 2021 despite slowing growth throughout much of the year. ...Read more
Property
The best suburbs for property growth in 2022 – Part 2
Growth is currently forecast for these 15 suburbs in the year ahead. ...Read more
Property
The best suburbs for property growth in 2022
Properties in these suburbs are expected to grow in value over the next year. ...Read more
Wrapping up an eventful 2021
Listen now
What Omicron means for property, and are units right for first-time buyers? What is equity crowdfunding? Are industry super funds tapping into member funds to save their skins?
Listen now
Will housing affordability improve in 2022? Will buy now, pay later become the norm? Why are Aussies staying in failing super products?
Listen now
Who really benefits from crypto ETFs? How will the RBA respond to rising inflation? Could a mandate help address unpaid super?
Listen now
Property
9 questions to ask when buying a CBD apartment for the first time
If you’ve been eyeing CBD apartments, the new year is the ideal time to start something new that could help you take one step closer to your dream – like finally buying your own home. ...Read more
Property
The 20 Australian suburbs where it’s hardest to rent
New research has revealed just how tight some of Australia’s rental markets have become. ...Read more
Property
8 hacks to boost property value without breaking the bank
With record-high property prices all over the country, more and more property owners have been contemplating selling their property. If you’re one of those intending to sell, here are some simple ...Read more
Property
Houses v Apartment: Which is the better investment?
Here are the top things to keep in mind when choosing an apartment versus a house for an investment. ...Read more
Property
4 trends to leverage in your 2022 investing journey
After a year of staggering price growth across Australia, many investors might be wondering: where do we go from here? ...Read more
Property
2021 delivered the biggest house price rise in decades
Property prices surged in 2021 despite slowing growth throughout much of the year. ...Read more
Property
The best suburbs for property growth in 2022 – Part 2
Growth is currently forecast for these 15 suburbs in the year ahead. ...Read more
Property
The best suburbs for property growth in 2022
Properties in these suburbs are expected to grow in value over the next year. ...Read more
More articles
Website Notifications
Get notifications in real-time for staying up to date with content that matters to you.
