Invest
Clinton clean sweep a concern for markets
All eyes are on next month’s US election, but the possibility of a Trump presidency is not the only concern for international equity markets.
Clinton clean sweep a concern for markets
All eyes are on next month’s US election, but the possibility of a Trump presidency is not the only concern for international equity markets.
With Donald Trump’s candidacy for president of the United States called into question again last week, the possibility of a Hillary Clinton-led Democratic clean sweep has emerged.
However, this too could spell trouble for markets, according to AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver.
“Such a scenario would worry investors to the extent that it would make it easier for less business-friendly tax and regulation policies to be put in place that might weigh on health, energy and financial companies,” Mr Oliver said, with reference to the Democratic Party’s hopes it will retake both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
If Clinton does win in November, there will be an important lesson to heed, he told Nestegg.com.au. When Americans go to the polls on 8 November, many will not only be voting for their next president, they will also be choosing down-ballot candidates in the Senate and the House.
“What Brexit and the success of Trump indicate is scepticism amongst the electorate in the UK and the US of traditional economic rationalist policies, such as globalisation and economic deregulation. These policies have taken a bit of a toll on different groups, and the people who have been left behind are feeling a bit annoyed and that’s contributed to the success of Trump and the Brexit vote,” he said.
“Obviously governments need learn that they can’t let inequality rise forever [as] it can cause real problems.”
For much of the campaign, investors have been concerned about the possibility of a Trump presidency.
“A Trump victory, or anticipation of it, would be initially negative for shares on policy uncertainty and trade war worries, push up bond yields as the US budget deficit is likely to widen and US interest rates move higher and therefore positive for the $US,” Mr Oliver said.
However, the likelihood of the Democratic Party winning a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate remains small.
“The polls are clearly moving in Clinton's favour again, but it’s doubtful that it’s enough to generate a wave of support strong enough to see the Democrats take both houses of Congress,” Mr Oliver said.
“While there is a good chance the Democrats will gain a majority in the Senate, but not necessarily the 60 seat control, it’s hard to see them winning the 30 seats necessary to control the House.”
RELATED ARTICLES
Property
New investment platform Arkus allows Australians to invest in property for just $1
In a groundbreaking move to democratise investment in property-backed mortgage funds, GPS Investment Fund Limited has launched Arkus™, a retail investment platform designed to make investing ...Read more
Property
Help to Buy goes live: What 40,000 new buyers mean for banks, builders and the bottom line
Australia’s Help to Buy has opened, lowering the deposit hurdle to 2 per cent and aiming to support up to 40,000 households over four years. That single policy lever will reverberate through mortgage ...Read more
Property
Australia’s mortgage knife‑fight: investors, first‑home buyers and the new rules of lender competition
The mortgage market is staying hot even as rate relief remains elusive, with investors and first‑home buyers chasing scarce stock and lenders fighting for share on price, speed and digital experienceRead more
Property
Breaking Australia’s three‑property ceiling: the finance‑first playbook for scalable portfolios
Most Australian investors don’t stall at three properties because they run out of ambition — they run out of borrowing capacity. The ceiling is a finance constraint disguised as an asset problem. The ...Read more
Property
Gen Z's secret weapon: Why their homebuying spree could flip Australia's housing market
A surprising share of younger Australians are preparing to buy despite affordability headwinds. One in three Gen Z Australians intend to purchase within a few years and 32 per cent say escaping rent ...Read more
Property
Tasmania’s pet-positive pivot: What landlords, BTR operators and insurers need to do now
Tasmania will soon require landlords to allow pets unless they can prove a valid reason to refuse. This is more than a tenancy tweak; it is a structural signal that the balance of power in rental ...Read more
Property
NSW underquoting crackdown: the compliance reset creating both cost and competitive edge
NSW is moving to sharply increase penalties for misleading price guides, including fines linked to agent commissions and maximum penalties up to $110,000. Behind the headlines sits a more ...Read more
Property
ANZ’s mortgage growth, profit slump: why volume without margin won’t pay the dividends
ANZ lifted home-lending volumes, yet profits fell under the weight of regulatory and restructuring costs—an object lesson in the futility of growth that doesn’t convert to margin and productivityRead more
Property
New investment platform Arkus allows Australians to invest in property for just $1
In a groundbreaking move to democratise investment in property-backed mortgage funds, GPS Investment Fund Limited has launched Arkus™, a retail investment platform designed to make investing ...Read more
Property
Help to Buy goes live: What 40,000 new buyers mean for banks, builders and the bottom line
Australia’s Help to Buy has opened, lowering the deposit hurdle to 2 per cent and aiming to support up to 40,000 households over four years. That single policy lever will reverberate through mortgage ...Read more
Property
Australia’s mortgage knife‑fight: investors, first‑home buyers and the new rules of lender competition
The mortgage market is staying hot even as rate relief remains elusive, with investors and first‑home buyers chasing scarce stock and lenders fighting for share on price, speed and digital experienceRead more
Property
Breaking Australia’s three‑property ceiling: the finance‑first playbook for scalable portfolios
Most Australian investors don’t stall at three properties because they run out of ambition — they run out of borrowing capacity. The ceiling is a finance constraint disguised as an asset problem. The ...Read more
Property
Gen Z's secret weapon: Why their homebuying spree could flip Australia's housing market
A surprising share of younger Australians are preparing to buy despite affordability headwinds. One in three Gen Z Australians intend to purchase within a few years and 32 per cent say escaping rent ...Read more
Property
Tasmania’s pet-positive pivot: What landlords, BTR operators and insurers need to do now
Tasmania will soon require landlords to allow pets unless they can prove a valid reason to refuse. This is more than a tenancy tweak; it is a structural signal that the balance of power in rental ...Read more
Property
NSW underquoting crackdown: the compliance reset creating both cost and competitive edge
NSW is moving to sharply increase penalties for misleading price guides, including fines linked to agent commissions and maximum penalties up to $110,000. Behind the headlines sits a more ...Read more
Property
ANZ’s mortgage growth, profit slump: why volume without margin won’t pay the dividends
ANZ lifted home-lending volumes, yet profits fell under the weight of regulatory and restructuring costs—an object lesson in the futility of growth that doesn’t convert to margin and productivityRead more
