Brexit-like rebound predicted after US election

By Jack Derwin

November 08 2016
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The best result for the US election would simply be for it to end, with experts predicting a resurgence in markets regardless of the winner.

Instreet Investment managing director George Lucas says that despite fears about a Trump presidency, such a scenario would not necessarily be dire in the long term.

“If Trump wins, the market is expecting a 5 per cent to 10 per cent sell off as a kneejerk reaction, but with a Brexit-style recovery afterwards,” Mr Lucas said.

“A Clinton win could see the US market easily recover the 3 per cent it has already lost, but this also depends on who wins the Senate and House.”

The important thing is that a result will end speculation about who will lead the US for the next four years, which should see markets recover from recent losses.

“The last couple of weeks have been miserable for Australian and global equities as participants feared a Trump win in the final countdown to the US presidential election. The S&P 500 has shed about 3 per cent over the past nine trading days, the ASX 200 has shed 4.6 per cent over the last two weeks, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell to its lowest point since early July,” Mr Lucas said.

“In Japan, the Nikkei 225 dropped 3.1 per cent last week, its worst drop in four months. Not helping the situation was a sell-off in oil and weak US employment data.”

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver also weighed in on the issue, saying a Trump presidency would be bad news for Australia.

“A Trump victory would likely trigger a further initial bout of ‘risk off’ with shares down by 5 per cent or so, both in the US and globally, and safe havens like bonds and gold rallying as investors fret particularly about his protectionist trade policies triggering a global trade war,” Mr Oliver said.

“Australian shares would be particularly vulnerable to this given our high trade exposure.”

However, Mr Oliver agreed that a recovery is likely following the result, whatever that may look like.

“Global and Australian shares rallied into the Brexit vote, whereas this time around they have already fallen 3-5 per cent over the last two weeks to price in maybe a 50 per cent chance of a Trump victory and are already technically oversold and primed for a rebound if the news is good or uncertainty is reduced,” he said.

With the two candidates polling closely, the result remains to close to call.

“This election is too close to call and the relatively high proportion of undecided voters, along with the historically high disapproval ratings for both candidates, means it could go either way. Clinton appears to hold a slim lead but it’s within a margin of error,” Mr Lucas said.

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