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In this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja checks in with our three experts to discuss this week’s biggest conversations about super, property and investment.

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Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, talks about the current market and its growth prospects, hinting at a “revenge spend” period post-lockdown. Could property prices really inflate by a further 20 per cent?

Meanwhile, RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, talks about the earning season and dividends, delving into how companies decide distribution policy. Find out what is happening in the recent dividend announcements.

Last but not least, tax and super guru Timothy Munro talks us through the results of APRA’s inaugural super test and how engaged members should really be with their super. Timothy also touches on the super splitting law and what it means for relationship breakdowns.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured in the next episode.

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Could property prices inflate by another 20%? What’s happening in recent divid...

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There is $17.5 billion in lost and unclaimed super across ...

Invest

Are we on the cusp of a recession?

By Killian Plastow

July 31 2017
Share

Invest

Are we on the cusp of a recession?

By Killian Plastow
July 31 2017

Models used to forecast market directions suggest the risk of a global recession in the next two years is low, but minor shifts in market performance could change that drastically, according to a global investment firm.

Are we on the cusp of a recession?

By Killian Plastow

July 31 2017
Share

Last year saw many investors worry that “stuttering growth” in numerous countries and “plunging” commodity prices could prompt a recession (a period of poor performance typically indicated by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), a recent report from Standard Life Investors noted.

“Although the worst fears of investors were not realised, and global economic growth has subsequently reaccelerated, the episode serves as a useful wake-up call,” the report said.

“It forces us to question where we sit in the global business cycle and – most importantly – when is the next recession due?”

Using a number of forecasting models, the asset management firm analysed the current market environment and found the chance of a global recession in the short term is slim, but cautioned that investors shouldn’t relax just yet.

“The modest risk of recession flagged by our models should not provide cause for complacency, especially for those investing on longer horizons,” the firm said.

“Our models have some predictive ability one and two years ahead, but their reliability fades as time goes on because the forces that bring cycles to an end are not always in view that far out and some recession triggers fall outside the scope of our framework.”

Additionally, the economists who put the report together found that only slight adjustments to market conditions were needed to dramatically increase the risk of a recession, with the most notable example being a single standard-deviation fall in year-on-year returns increased the probability of a recession on a three month horizon by 20 per cent.

Changes in a number of other variables, such as real residential investment and credit spreads are also likely to affect the possibility of a global recession, the report cautioned.

Standard Life Investments said that investors can feel confident about extending their investment horizons “for now”, but that they should keep an eye on the market moving forward to minimise their risk.

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